The Age of Magical Overthinking: Notes on Modern Irrationality

by Amanda Montell

As unbecoming as bigheadedness may be, it historically had its merits. A 2011 Nature study proposed that natural selection may have favored a swollen ego, as it enhanced resolve and perseverence, made it easier to bluff opponents in conflict, and generated a self-fulfilling prophecy where self-assuredness alone fostered better chances of survival. Political science researchers from Britain, Germany, and Switzerland tested the survival benefits of overconfidence by conducting a series of experimental war games. Participants were asked to assess the weakness of neighboring countries, represented as squares on a grid, and then decide whether or not to attack. The study concluded that while overconfident participants were more likely than anyone else to blitz opponents unprovoked and overall fought more battles, when it came to the end of the war, the victor was always someone who’d behaved overconfidently. The researchers analyzed that even though overconfident parties were expected to lose more wars, they also entered more wars, “effectively ‘buying more lottery tickets’ in the competition for survival.” Sure, some overconfident states reached too far and got clobbered, but by chance, others enjoyed back-to-back wins, receiving positive feedback each time that they really were as great as they thought and should continue with their conquests. So they expanded quickly, growing more powerful from the resources they progressively gained. When you keep winning, what incentive is...