A 2014 study in Scientific Reports concluded that overconfidence is promoted by the very act of “self-deceptive bluffing,” the kind of deep con where you don’t simply act like you’re better than you are, you honestly believe it. So you have this feedback loop of overpromising and overconfidence, and as long as a person’s bluffing doesn’t stretch all the way to “lemon juice will make me invisible,” these warped self-assessments are stunningly effective.
