But what a perfect example of how hard it is for people to think about probability and uncertainty. To help his students think about this, Stanford professor Ronald Howard asked them to write a percentage representing the likelihood that they had responded correctly next to each answer on the tests he gave. If you said you were 100 percent confident that your answer was correct and it turned out to be wrong, you failed the entire test. If you said you were zero percent confident and your answer happened to be correct, you got no credit. Everything in between gave you a confidence-adjusted
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