How Civilizations Die: (And Why Islam Is Dying Too)

by David Goldman

World War I is a case in point: by 1914, with a nearly perfect equilibrium of forces between the Allies and the Central Powers, a devastating war of attrition was the only probable outcome. Less than a decade earlier, though, it would have been easy to preempt the conflict. In fact, war between France and Germany nearly broke out in 1905 when Germany demanded an “open door” policy to Morocco in opposition to the colonial domination of France. Germany in turn demanded an international diplomatic conference to put France in its place, but in June 2005, France responded defiantly and cancelled all military leaves, an action just short of military mobilization—which would have been a casus belli. Germany would have been technically justified in initiating hostilities at that point. The German Chief of Staff, Count Alfred von Schlieffen (author of the famous “Schlieffen Plan” that guided German strategy in the opening days of the subsequent war), urged Kaiser Wilhelm II to declare war on France. A Franco-German war in 1905 would have left Russia and Britain on the sidelines. Russia had just suffered a crushing defeat by Japan and was in the middle of a revolution. Britain had not yet signed a military alliance with France. The result probably would have been a repeat of the Franco-Prussian War, which Germany won in six weeks. If France had been decisively humiliated in 1905, Germany would have emerged as the dominant European power, and no world war would have ensued.

Wishful thinking, perhaps. Britain might well have invaded anyways.