How Civilizations Die: (And Why Islam Is Dying Too)

by David Goldman

Driving the demographics of Iran, Turkey, Algeria, Tunisia, and other Muslim countries is a “locomotive” made up of people in their teens and twenties. They were born into families of six or seven children. But this “locomotive” has hit a demographic wall: these young people are having only one or two children. Today’s “bulge” generation of young Muslims, whose political humiliation and frustration over economic stagnation stoked the Arab rebellions of 2011, will be followed by a generation dramatically smaller than their own. Today there are more Iranians in their mid-twenties than in any other age bracket. But they are not reproducing. An educated twenty-five-year-old Iranian woman today probably grew up in a family of six or seven children, but will bear only one child. The consequences will be catastrophic. Today there are nine Iranians of working age for every elderly dependent. By 2050, when the bulge in Iran’s population will be at retirement age, there will be more Iranians in their mid-sixties than in any other age bracket—seven elderly dependents for every ten working Iranians. The country produces just $4,400 per capita, about a tenth of America’s GDP, and most of that comes directly or indirectly from oil and natural gas reserves—which are running out.