At that point, Kahneman had the smart idea to use a technique—one that would be included in the textbook—for surveying the members of a group. During a team meeting he asked everyone to write down how long they thought it would take to finish the book. (He hadn’t discussed the topic with anyone else before the meeting.) These independent estimates ranged from one and a half to two and a half years, with an average right in the middle. Kahneman then had another good idea. He tried to find out what the base rate was: how long did previous projects take to create a first textbook for a brand-new
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