The Coming Wave: AI, Power, and Our Future

by Mustafa Suleyman

Broadly speaking, when technology damaged old jobs and industries, it also produced new ones. Over time these new jobs tended toward service industry roles and cognitive-based white-collar jobs. As factories closed in the Rust Belt, demand for lawyers, designers, and social media influencers boomed. So far at least, in economic terms, new technologies have not ultimately replaced labor; they have in the aggregate complemented it. But what if new job-displacing systems scale the ladder of human cognitive ability itself, leaving nowhere new for labor to turn? If the coming wave really is as general and wide-ranging as it appears, how will humans compete? What if a large majority of white-collar tasks can be performed more efficiently by AI? In few areas will humans still be “better” than machines. I have long argued this is the more likely scenario. With the arrival of the latest generation of large language models, I am now more convinced than ever that this is how things will play out. These tools will only temporarily augment human intelligence. They will make us smarter and more efficient for a time, and will unlock enormous amounts of economic growth, but they are fundamentally labor replacing. They will eventually do cognitive labor more efficiently and more cheaply than many people working in administration, data entry, customer service (including making and receiving phone calls), writing emails, drafting summaries, translating documents, creating content, copywritin...

White-Collar Eclipse: The Coming Cognitive Displacement