Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes

by Morgan Housel

Saying “I’m in it for the long run” is a bit like standing at the base of Mount Everest, pointing to the top, and saying, “That’s where I’m heading.” Well, that’s nice. Now comes the test.

Benjamin Graham said, “The purpose of the margin of safety is to render the forecast unnecessary.” The more flexibility you have, the less you need to know what happens next. And never forget John Maynard Keynes: “In the long run we’re all dead.”

Stephen King explains in his book On Writing: This is a short book because most books about writing are filled with bullshit. I figured the shorter the book, the less bullshit. Poetry.

What have you experienced that I haven’t that makes you believe what you do? And would I think about the world like you do if I experienced what you have?

An important component of human behavior is that people who’ve had different experiences than you will think differently than you do. They’ll have different goals, outlooks, wishes, and values. So most debates are not actual disagreements; they’re people with different experiences talking over each other.

We can see and measure just about everything in the world except people’s moods, fears, hopes, grudges, goals, triggers, and expectations. That’s partly why history is such a continuous chain of baffling events, and always will be.

Ever the curious scientist, Pavlov spent months studying how the flood changed his dogs’ behavior. Many were never the same—they had completely different personalities after the flood, and learned behavior that was previously ingrained vanished. He summed up what happened, and how it applies to humans: Different conditions productive of extreme excitation often lead to profound and prolonged loss of balance in nervous and psychic activity . . . neuroses and psychoses may develop as a result of extreme danger to oneself or to near friends, or even the spectacle of some frightful event not affecting one directly.

“A mind that is stretched by new experience can never go back to its old dimensions,” said Oliver Wendell Holmes.

Who has the right answers but I ignore because they’re not articulate? Which of my current views would I disagree with if I were born in a different country or generation? What do I desperately want to be true so much that I think it’s true when it’s clearly not? What is a problem that I think applies only to other countries/industries/careers that will eventually hit me? What do I think is true but is actually just good marketing? What haven’t I experienced firsthand that leaves me naive about how something works? What looks unsustainable but is actually a new trend we haven’t accepted yet? Who do I think is smart but is actually full of it? Am I prepared to handle risks I can’t even envision? Which of my current views would change if my incentives were different? What are we ignoring today that will seem shockingly obvious in the future? What events very nearly happened that would have fundamentally changed the world I know if they had occurred? How much have things outside my control contributed to things I take credit for? How do I know if I’m being patient (a skill) or stubborn (a flaw)? Who do I look up to that is secretly miserable? What hassle am I trying to eliminate that’s actually an unavoidable cost of success? What crazy genius that I aspire to emulate is actually just crazy? What strong belief do I hold that’s most likely to change? What’s always been true? What’s the same as ever?