Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes

by Morgan Housel

The Economist—a magazine I admire—publishes a forecast of the year ahead each January. Its January 2020 issue does not mention a single word about COVID-19. Its January 2022 issue does not mention a single word about Russia invading Ukraine. That’s not a criticism—both events were impossible to know when the issues were planned in the months before publication. But that’s the point: The biggest news, the biggest risks, the most consequential events are always what you don’t see coming. Put another way: There is rarely more or less economic uncertainty; just changes in how ignorant people are to potential risks. Asking what the biggest risks are is like asking what you expect to be surprised about. If you knew what the biggest risk was you would do something about it, and doing something about it would make it less risky. What your imagination can’t fathom is the dangerous stuff, and it’s why risk can never be mastered.