Investing in your long-term future is of course great, because the odds that the economy will become more productive and more valuable are pretty good. But trying to predict the exact path we’ll take to get there can be such a waste of resources. I describe my forecasting model as “good enough.” I’m confident people will solve problems and become more productive over time. I’m confident markets will allocate the rewards of that productivity to investors over time. I’m confident in other people’s overconfidence, so I know there will be mistakes and accidents and booms and busts along the way.
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