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What if the next two adjectives were corrupt and cruel?
System 1 jumps the gun frequently
Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.
Knowing little
The almost complete neglect of quantity in such emotional contexts has been confirmed many times.
The students who had many dates were reminded of a happy aspect of their life, while those who had none were reminded of loneliness and rejection. The emotion aroused by the dating question was still on everyone’s mind when the query about general happiness came up.
the satisfying sense of causation that you experience when thinking of a hammer hitting an egg is altogether absent when you think about sampling.
we are prone to exaggerate the consistency and coherence of what we see.
exaggerated faith in small samples
dont overexagerrate value of information from small sample sizes
Instead you should make a scene, storm out or threaten to do so, and make it clear—to yourself as well as to the other side—that you will not continue the negotiation with that number on the table.
It would almost certainly benefit serious offenders and large firms much more than small ones.
Anchoring results from this associative activation. Whether the story is true, or believable, matters little, if at all. The powerful effect of random anchors is an extreme case of this phenomenon, because a random anchor obviously provides no information at all.
where do random anchors appear in my da to day life? I feel at work salary negotiations is the most topical example in this case is it best. Never ask if something is negotiable just negotiate and see what happens
they wish to estimate the frequency of a category,
“The emotional tail wags the rational dog.”
Subjects’ unwillingness to deduce the particular from the general was matched only by their willingness to infer the general from the particular.
the incongruity must be resolved and embedded in a causal story.
regression inevitably occurs when the correlation between two measures is less than perfect,
whenever the correlation between two scores is imperfect, there will be regression to the mean.
More far-fetched explanations will come up at a good party.
a good party XD
our mind is strongly biased toward causal explanations and does not deal well with “mere statistics.”
And the more luck was involved, the less there is to be learned.
Learninh from CEO morning routines is pretty dumb,
because most of the
It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously, but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.
The associative machine is set to suppress doubt and to evoke ideas and information that are compatible with the currently dominant story.
The narrative i write about myself
considered a weakness and a sign of vulnerability for clinicians to appear unsure.
The main obstacle is that subjective confidence is determined by the coherence of the story one has constructed, not by the quality and amount of the information that supports it.
“Imagine that we are a year into the future. We implemented the plan as it now exists. The outcome was a disaster. Please take 5 to 10 minutes to write a brief history of that disaster.”
He proposed that for many dimensions, the function is logarithmic—which simply means that an increase of stimulus intensity by a given factor (say, times 1.5 or times 10) always yields the same increment on the psychological scale. If raising the energy of the sound from 10 to 100 units of physical energy increases psychological intensity by 4 units, then a further increase of stimulus intensity from 100 to 1,000 will also increase psychological intensity by 4 units.
coded as pluses or minuses relative to where you were.
