Speaking of Representativeness “The lawn is well trimmed, the receptionist looks competent, and the furniture is attractive, but this doesn’t mean it is a well-managed company. I hope the board does not go by representativeness.” “This start-up looks as if it could not fail, but the base rate of success in the industry is extremely low. How do we know this case is different?” “They keep making the same mistake: predicting rare events from weak evidence. When the evidence is weak, one should stick with the base rates.” “I know this report is absolutely damning, and it may be based on solid
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