A massive flood somewhere in North America next year, in which more than 1,000 people drown An earthquake in California sometime next year, causing a flood in which more than 1,000 people drown The California earthquake scenario is more plausible than the North America scenario, although its probability is certainly smaller. As expected, probability judgments were higher for the richer and more detailed scenario, contrary to logic. This is a trap for forecasters and their clients: adding detail to scenarios makes them more persuasive, but less likely to come true.
