Thinking, Fast and Slow

by Daniel Kahneman

we do not want to draw possibly erroneous conclusions about the individual from the statistics of the group.

We consider it morally desirable for base rates to be treated as statistical facts about the group rather than as presumptive facts about individuals.

The correlation between SAT scores and college GPA is approximately .60. However, the correlation between aptitude tests and success in graduate school is much lower, largely because measured aptitude varies little in this selected group.

The worse the consequence, the greater the hindsight bias.