One way in which analysts measure the Republican Party’s current advantage in the Electoral College is by identifying the state that serves as the tipping point in a national election—in other words, the state that delivers the decisive 270th electoral vote to the winning candidate. If we rank states from the largest pro-Democratic margin (Vermont) to the largest pro-Republican margin (Wyoming) in the 2020 presidential election, Wisconsin was the tipping point state. As such, we’d expect it to track the national popular vote, which Biden won by 4.4 percentage points. But he won Wisconsin by
...more
