My personal rule is to be highly skeptical anytime I have a hunch that something I want to happen will happen. This doesn’t mean all such hunches are wrong. It means only that one should examine them with extra care and double one’s guard in case of trouble. By contrast, I’m much more inclined to trust an intuition pointing to some outcome I don’t want. If I had bought those paintings and generated a hunch that Trashworthy was never going to make it (and if I had enough knowledge of art to make such a hunch plausible), my inclination would be to unload fast.
