Thus, suppose that at some time in the past, Event A was followed by Event B. A couple of years have gone by, and now here we are witnessing Event A again. “Aha!”, says nearly everybody, “Event B is about to happen!” Don’t fall into this trap. It is true that history repeats itself sometimes, but most often it doesn’t, and in any case it never does so in a reliable enough way that you can prudently bet money on it.
