Dheeraj Lalwani

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Unless something moves by more than its usual daily percentage change, the event is deemed to be noise. Percentage moves are the size of the headlines. In addition, the interpretation is not linear; a 2% move is not twice as significant an event as 1 %, it is rather like four to ten times. A 7% move can be several billion times more relevant than a 1 % move! The headline of the Dow moving by 1.3 points on my screen today has less than one billionth of the significance of the serious 7% drop of October 1997.
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
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