Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Table 3.1 Probability of success at different scales Scale Probability 1 year 93% 1 quarter 77% 1 month 67% 1 day 54% 1 hour 51.3% 1 minute 50.17% 1 second 50.02%