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daily or weekly prices do not follow the standard model, but who cares? Most people, goes the argument, buy and hold for months, years, or decades—and in those time-scales, the conventional models work just fine. There is a fallacy in this, of course. Most people also do not contract HIV and then develop AIDS, but the few percent who do get it are very glad that the pharmaceutical industry has taken the time and expense to develop the necessary drugs to keep them alive longer. More importantly, the multifractal model successfully predicts what the data show: that at short time-frames prices ...more
The (Mis)Behavior of Markets
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