The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives

by Leonard Mlodinow

Which is more likely: that a defendant, after discovering the body, left the scene of the crime or that a defendant, after discovering the body, left the scene of the crime because he feared being accused of the grisly murder? Is it more probable that the president will increase federal aid to education or that he or she will increase federal aid to education with funding freed by cutting other aid to the states? Is it more likely that your company will increase sales next year or that it will increase sales next year because the overall economy has had a banner year? In each case, even though the latter is less probable than the former, it may sound more likely. Or as Kahneman and Tversky put it, “A good story is often less probable than a less satisfactory… [explanation].