This particular kind of forecasting, like all economic forecasting, was as much art as science. Judgments and assumptions governed the predictions. Moreover, such forecasting was much affected by the “community” in which it was done; thus, it was also a psychological and sociological phenomenon, reflecting the influences of peers and the way individuals and groups groped for certainty and mutual comfort in an uncertain world. The end result was often a strong tendency toward consensus, even if the consensus completely changed its tune every couple of years.
