The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power

by Daniel Yergin

The “knock-out fight” to which Roosevelt referred had been precipitated by Germany’s surprise attack on the Soviet Union in June 1941, which forced a major strategic choice for Tokyo: whether to continue on its southern course or to take advantage of Hitler’s success, join in the attack on Russia from the east, and help itself to part of Siberia. Between June 25 and July 2, 1941, senior officials in Tokyo grappled with and argued fervently over the choices. Finally, they made the fateful decision: They would put off doing anything about the Soviet Union, and instead concentrate on the southern strategy—and, in particular, seek to secure control of all of Indochina, deemed necessary in order to go for the East Indies. They did so with the recognition that the occupation of southern Indochina could well provoke an all-out American oil embargo, which would be “a matter of life or death to the empire,” in the words of the Navy General Staff.