The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power

by Daniel Yergin

Within the Roosevelt Administration, however, there was intense and sharp discussion about how best to respond, including the ever-present question of direct economic sanctions. But Joseph Grew, the American ambassador to Japan, warned of the possible consequences. The Japanese would submit, he reported from Tokyo, to any deprivation rather than see their nation humbled by Western powers—and lose face. On a visit to Washington in the autumn of 1939, Grew met twice with President Roosevelt and later wrote in his diary: “I brought out clearly my view that if we once start sanctions against Japan we must see them through to the end, and the end may conceivably be war. I also said that if we cut off Japanese supplies of oil and if Japan then finds that she cannot obtain sufficient oil from other commercial sources to ensure her national security, she will in all probability send her fleets down to take the Dutch East Indies.” “Then we could easily intercept her fleet,” the President replied. Grew was expressing foreboding, not commenting on policies that were imminent in the autumn of 1939. There was no plan for an embargo on oil. Nor, despite his remarks, was Roosevelt willing to risk a confrontation. But oil was fast emerging as the critical issue between the two countries.