The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power

by Daniel Yergin

The increase in free world crude oil production was gargantuan: from 8.7 million barrels per day in 1948 to 42 million barrels per day in 1972. While U.S. production had grown 5.5 to 9.5 million barrels per day, America’s share of total world production had slipped from 64 percent to 22 percent. The reason for the percentage decline was the extraordinary shift to the Middle East, where production had grown from 1.1 million barrels per day to 18.2 million barrels per day—a 1,500 percent increase! Even more dramatic was the shift in proven oil reserves—that is, oil in a particular reservoir that, with some confidence, people knew about and that could be produced economically. Proven world oil reserves in the noncommunist world increased from 62 billion barrels in 1948 to 534 billion barrels in 1972, almost a ninefold rise. American reserves had grown from 21 billion barrels in 1948 to 38 billion barrels by 1972. But their statistical significance had shrunk, from 34 percent of total world reserves to a mere 7 percent. While major growth was being registered in Africa, by far the most staggering part of the increase was in the new center of gravity, the Middle East, whose reserves had increased from 28 billion barrels to 367 billion barrels. Out of every ten barrels added to free world oil reserves between 1948 and 1972, more than seven were found in the Middle East. What these enormous numbers meant was that, as fast as the world was using oil, it was even more quickly addin...