The Revenge Of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate in Espionage Aficionados

May 19, 2018 Phrodrick slowed his growing backlog rated it really liked it · review of another edition

I enjoyed The Revenge of Geography by Robert D. Kaplan, even as I am mindful of some of the more critical of its reviews. Mr. Kaplan lays out a series of intelligent discussions built around the interrelationship between geography and history. It is part of my job to look at events and ask why here (not there) and will it be here again? As such geological determinism is an implied concept in my profession. Beyond my professional predilection to accept some degree of determinism, Kaplan uses geog I enjoyed The Revenge of Geography by Robert D. Kaplan, even as I am mindful of some of the more critical of its reviews. Mr. Kaplan lays out a series of intelligent discussions built around the interrelationship between geography and history. It is part of my job to look at events and ask why here (not there) and will it be here again? As such geological determinism is an implied concept in my profession. Beyond my professional predilection to accept some degree of determinism, Kaplan uses geography as persisting frame of reference in making his geographically based analysis of world history, politics and possible futures. He also admits to the need to be flexible in the application of determinism in the face of conflicting histories and alternate futures. His politics are apparent, but there is no need to agree with either his politics or his conclusions. The reader is free to ignore his specifics, but is making a mistake by preemptively shrugging them aside.

Part I, Chapters 1-6 are the weakest part of the book. Here he presents his arguments in favor of geography as fate and gives himself the cover of saying this only mostly true. A more general statement of his thesis is that across history, where regional maps do not place political borders around obvious barrier features, mountains, oceans or desserts and the like, human history will be about the wars fought over who is to hold that land. Further these chapter identify the several geographic thinkers who help to organize and direct the shape of his argument.

Next he posits, in broad terms, that within areas defined by natural barriers the culture and government of the people within are heavily influenced by the nature of the environment that encloses the inhabitants. Temperate climates help to promote a more temperate, less central, dictatorial government and less hospitable climates promote more disciplined centralized governments. Here Kaplan quotes Napoleon directly as having said: “Tell me about a nation’s climate and I will tell you about its culture.”
Having defined, and defended this thesis, he cites geographically minded academics to define terms that divide the planet into areas like the “Rimlands” and to document his belief that the relief map rules.

Given this view of the relief map of the world as a primary determinant of how local history and culture will be constrained or fated Part 2 cover the major division of the planet within this system. These six chapters look at, in sequence: Europe, Russia, China, India, Iran (Iraq) and Turkey ( the Ottoman Empire). The nations are not just the boundaries that we now recognize but centers of historic regions, including smaller, lessor border-states. For each nation/region we are given its history and something of a geographic strengths, weaknesses and opportunity analysis. This is the best of the Revenge of Geography. Again it is not a question of our agreeing with this history or analysis or even any absolute ‘rightness’ of his recitation and conclusions. It is about the value to be gained by thinking about people and places from this kind of geo-politics meets realpolitik meats manifest destiny point of view.

Kaplan will give himself the right to be inconsistent. Is Korea or Taiwan the pivot region in Asia? Is the existence of Afghanistan illogical or the center of future oil distribution? Should America seek to make friends or even frienemies of Iran and thereby promote the relative liberality of Persian Sunni’s? Or is the Middle East a place where America, by dint of consistent failure to understand the place and its peoples accept the contradiction of our inability to force western values or withdraw? Also as his analysis moves closer to America and modern times he walks back on the primacy of geography in favor of the ability to apply technology in overcoming space in communications and logistics and therefore military power and diplomatic influence.

Part 3 addresses the Americas and what he believes is the real problem facing the United States. He is highly concerned that the US is willing to commit vast resources in other part of the world, while being blind to the danger of Mexico as a failing state. He take on the threat of a Hispanic Reconquista of the American South west. It may happen but in itself it is not so much a tragedy as it is recognition that much of this area may naturally belong to a Catholic, Spanish speaking peoples. His concern is that a failed Mexico and especially one in aligned with other Central/South American narco-states could so destabilize the New World as to cost America the ability to deal with an obviously emerging China and a slowly reconstituting Imperialistic Russia.

In recommending The Revenge of Geography, the point is not to accept Robert Kaplan as the final word on any region, aspect of his hypotheses or the particulars of his analyses. I do not have the depth of bibliography to begin to challenge him. What is more important to me is that the reader appreciate the value of his methodology and the importance of seeking out the detailed knowledge that would allow you to accept or reject particulars. Kaplan is addressing the kinds of high level, informed strategic thinking that should be part of being a knowledgeable member of twenty first century America. ...more

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