2026 Nobel Prize > Likes and Comments

Two weeks to go ...

So far in speculation I'm seeing the same names as previous years - Can Xue (unfair as it is, can't help feel Han Kang getting the prize could count against), Mircea Cartarescu (ditto with Krasznahorkai), Gerard Murnane, Cristina Rivera Garza, Michel Houellebecq, Thomas Pynchon etc.

I have submitted my dossier recommending Alexis Wright. However I'm no longer an offical advisor to the committee - they felt me nominating three winners in a row was enough.

Is the male female alternation semi official under the new jury … I thought it almost was.

If not then they really need to get round to Rushdie before it’s too late

If age is a thing the Swedish author Kerstin Ekman needs to receive it soon.
Or maybe the Sápmi writer Ann-Helén Laestadius.

But I suppose there is The List.

Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer wrote: "If not then they really need to get round to Rushdie before it’s too late"

I agree!

Ladbrokes have him jt 10th favourite with 4 others

They go

1 Can Xue
2 Murakami
3-8 Rivera Garza; Vila-Matis; Murnane; Jorge; Cartarescu; Pynchon
9 Ulitskaya
10-14 Sotiropoulos; Attwood; Houllebecq; Michon; Rushdie
15 Knausgaard

Alexis Wright is in a large group after that

Vila-Matis I don't recall appearing so high before but I may be wrong. And some names like Jamaica Kincaid (I was convinced one year she would win) have slipped back

Kalshi - which is a trading market and is rather US centric (but has definitely had insider views on other markets - notably US political events) has Pynchon 44% chance of winning

It goes in order
Pynchon
Can Xue & Murakami
Carson
Aira & Atwood
Cărtărescu & Murnane

Someone has been betting heavily on Pynchon in the last few days

The Swedish odds (where leaks have spread in past but not so much recently) have it

Can Xue (well ahead)
Murnane
Alexis Wright (news of my dossier has spread) and Pynchon
Cărtărescu & Houllebecq
Vita-Matis, Murakami & Rushdie
Michon, Frode Tiller and Toibin

I would love for Jamaica Kincaid to win. Her voice and views, and even legacy, are so different and intellectual stimulating in a world with hard corners.

I am holding off on my thoughts till we are closer. I do wonder how much the political situation in the world might be moving how the judges vote. I do not know if the judges are reactive or have arranged to not let the real world affect their decision but political events have had an effect on how other prizes were awarded.

I asked at my local library here in Sweden today what they thought about the Nobel literature Prize this year and they were in agreement, this prize has lost some of its importance among many prizes. To my surprise.
They did not think Kerstin Ekman would be a prize winner, but were not surprised if Jamaica Kincaid would win … but I am afraid put words in their mouths.

There is a large book fair here this weekend (Gothenburg) and they also mention Kincaid as a possible - and most wanted - winner. She is visiting and received their prize, The Mermaid.

https://swedenherald.com/article/jama...

Looking around online, a lot of people seem to think a woman writing in Spanish will win this year, but I feel like the prize is overdue for a surprise pick.

Will wrote: "Looking around online, a lot of people seem to think a woman writing in Spanish will win this year, but I feel like the prize is overdue for a surprise pick."

And is that mainly centred around Cristina Rivera Garza, who seems to have featured in speculation over recent years in a way that makes one suspect she must have been in contention. Or other names?

I've often often seen it said in the abstract or centered around Rivera Garza, though Samanta Schweblin, Mariana Enriquez, and a few others came up. Rivera Garza seems to be the most likely, though, unless they pick a writer out of left field again.

Anne Carson also seems to have a bit of buzz this year.

Alexis Wright is a strong contender, I think. Maybe thanks to that dossier... Anyway, I believe it's high time I read Wright. I think I will start with Carpentaria.

I want to read more Can Xue. I found Frontier surprising, confusing, and intensely engaging, which rarely happens in my reading life simultaneously. However, I think that the recency of Han Kang's win makes it less likely that this year's winner would be from East Asia.

Bookmuppet wrote: "Alexis Wright is a strong contender, I think. Maybe thanks to that dossier... Anyway, I believe it's high time I read Wright. I think I will start with Carpentaria.

I want to read more Can Xue. I ..."

Yes one sort of has to assume - given the way things seem to work, where they read a novel in the context of comparitive literature - that they considered Can Xue alongside Han Kang, even if in many respect it is silly to pair them. Ditto Krasznahorkai may mean Cărtărescu is less likely to win. And Anne Carson might have been passed over a few years ago in favour of Louise Gluck.

It's also why Murnane and Alexis Wright appear - to extent they genuinely are in contention, they may well be paired.

Of course the ultimate of that was when the Committee considered the merits of Philip Roth, DeLillo etc and decided the best representation of the Great American Novel was Bob Dylan. The ultimate trolling, particularly of Roth :-)

Louise Erdrich is another name I'm seeing a lot.

Although usual disclaimer that with the betting-scandal shut down, and the library reading list approach also, we are now really in the realms of pure speculation.

Fosse and Krasznahorkai were pre-announcements favourites purely as they are self-evidently (well to me and the Committee at least!) the best authors in the world. But now they've been recognised we may be back to the 'who??' days.

Interesting. I wouldn't have guessed that Erdrich would be considered... And I say that as a fan. But personally I find her earlier novels much more compelling. I can't imagine a character such as Pauline/Sister Leopolda in her more recent work, which to me fits in with how I see "upmarket fiction" described: the principal characters all have the "right" views and feelings, lyricism and complexity in the narration cast aside in favor of immediacy and plainspokenness. And, in a sense, I'd think Munro's win would undercut Erdrich's chances, the shadow of Yoknapatawpha County looming over their fictional worlds.

Bookmuppet wrote: "Interesting. I wouldn't have guessed that Erdrich would be considered... And I say that as a fan. But personally I find her earlier novels much more compelling. I can't imagine a character such as ..."

Not an author I know at all to be honest - just seen the name a lot in speculation.

Just tried to pile on Alexis Wright, as getting a few questions from the Committee on my dossier, but any bet over £20 Ladbrokes firstly cut the odds (from 25-1 to 14-1), then when I tried again actually stopped me placing at all. I've taken Murnane as a correlated punt.

Also slightly worried they may try to troll me this year - Pynchon would be the obvious way to do that.

Do you think they're trying to make it a more or less fixed pattern to give the prize to a man one year and to a woman the next? Recent years seem to suggest it might be so.

Bookmuppet wrote: "Do you think they're trying to make it a more or less fixed pattern to give the prize to a man one year and to a woman the next? Recent years seem to suggest it might be so."

Well they've denied it - and easiest way to convincingly disprove it is not to do it*. Hence why I wonder if the questions on Wright are more for their dossier on Murnane.

(* or they could have simply swapped Tokarczuk and Handke as 2018 and 2019 winners in the two winners year - that was almost gratuitous)

Bookmuppet wrote: "Do you think they're trying to make it a more or less fixed pattern to give the prize to a man one year and to a woman the next? Recent years seem to suggest it might be so."

I'm not sure. Some individual members or a group of them might have an unofficial rule about it, but I doubt the awarding body as a whole takes that into consideration. It's also getting a bit predictable, so I think they'll break the pattern soon, maybe this year or next.

Will wrote: "Bookmuppet wrote: "Do you think they're trying to make it a more or less fixed pattern to give the prize to a man one year and to a woman the next? Recent years seem to suggest it might be so."

That's a good point. They probably don't want to seem overly predictable.

Paul wrote: "Bookmuppet wrote: "Do you think they're trying to make it a more or less fixed pattern to give the prize to a man one year and to a woman the next? Recent years seem to suggest it might be so."

We..."
But in Wright they would have a somewhat unexpected winner -- a choice that looks both to the future (postcoloniality and critical/creative exploration of the anthropocene and its fallout) and the history of the prize (here I'm thinking of early recipients like Władysław Stanisław Reymont or Selma Lagerlöf and how they used folklore and peasant culture in their work).

Bookmuppet wrote: "in Wright they would have a somewhat unexpected winner -- a choice that looks both to the future (postcoloniality and critical/creative exploration of the anthropocene and its fallout) and the history of the prize (here I'm thinking of early recipients like Władysław Stanisław Reymont or Selma Lagerlöf and how they used folklore and peasant culture in their work)."

Perfectly put. And rather more compelling and succinct than my dossier!

Actually my review of Praiseworthy is the only review of the 1000s I have on Goodreads that was deleted as the publisher complained about the excessive quoting of the book.

I would like to see any Aussie winner if not this year then soon - Murnane would be more logical and influential, Wright more left field and exciting - as it feels like Antipodean literature is largely ignored in the rest of the Anglosphere (and I suspect almost unknown outside of that) in the last decade or so despite being I think having a lot more experimental, politically engaged but reader engaging literature than I see elsewhere.

Yes Jen Craig and Adam Ouston as examples seem virtually unknown in the UK but probably only Isabel Waidner here is writing at their level.

Paul wrote: "Actually my review of Praiseworthy is the only review of the 1000s I have on Goodreads that was deleted as the publisher complained about the excessive quoting of the book.

Really?!? That is wild considering how you praised it and how long the book is--I feel like ANY amount of quoting would be fair use.

I was speaking to a translator of Alexis Wright and they are missioning a few translations to have them ready to go on the off-chance she wins.

Yes it was odd, as it was a tiny part of the book.

Slightly worried my dossier has created unreasonable expectations if translations are being lined up. Is she even translated into Swedish?

I think so?

https://www.norstedts.se/alexis-wright

Less than a day! I have a feeling it's Anne Carson's year, but we'll see.

From that link, it looks like Carpentaria just came out in Swedish last month. The awarding body may want to read that before giving the prize to Alexis Wright, so she may have another year or two before she wins.

Will wrote: "Less than a day! I have a feeling it's Anne Carson's year, but we'll see.

From that link, it looks like Carpentaria just came out in Swedish last month. The awarding body may want to read that be..."
Oh, thanks for that! However, Praiseworthy apparently appeared in Swedish in 2025, and if they read it and loved it, who knows...

Though she would have had to be on their radar for some time normally to win the prize. It’s why the library reading method worked as it showed who was on their radar for coming years.

I mean my dossier was persuasive but I had hoped they’d been reading her for more years than that.

Wonder if any leaks this year. If they are it’s only just before the announcement when they phone the recipient to let them know. Someone associated with Krasznahorkai leaked it last year.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=161...

This was from a judge last year as a reminder.

Worth a watch but my summary:

Start with a very long list.

They winnow down initial list to a half-long-list of 20-30 names.

Filter on criteria e.g. how long has this person been on the list - but always literary merit.

By May there is a 5 name longlist - and someone writes a report on each to make the case.

Everyone has 4 months to read all of the candidates. Then they get together around end Sept to make a decision.

Went out of way to say that gender/nationality balance is not a consideration.

I can only hope he is pretending on the nationality balance - it makes no sense at all given the panel has such a huge inbuilt bias for them not to explicitly try to ensure they are countering that.

On the national Swedish radio three have been mentioned overly today, Carson, Kincaid and Wright. And then also the one mentioning Rushdie and Ekman because of age.

The Swedish national radio also had an interesting article om the prize and age. Kipling being the youngest, 41, and Lessing being the oldest, 88. Being in their fifties were still considered young, like Han Kang, even though most authors have had a long list of works by that age.

If the argument about age holds, Rushdie (79) would be a young man compared to Lessing, but Ekman would become the oldest one with her 93 years.

I don't have a particular favorite or prediction. I think my anticipation has been tempered by the loss of authors over the past couple of years that by the nature of the prize removes their names from consideration. So while thinking of the number of great authors who will not be recognized, simply by the limitations of the numbers, I am readjusting my thoughts to who I feel would most benefit from the recognition or whose award would result in a benefit for literature as a whole, as well as which author I feel is most deserving due to their accomplishment. And too many names stand out with only one award. I hope they choose a woman because I like the idea of balance and having read her biography this past year, I think Margaret Atwood would make a good choice because she contributed in so many different literary genres and with Handmaid's Tale, wrote a work of significant influence. She also would make an exemplary choice for an acceptance speech. But I will be happy to read something by whoever is chosen.

Anne Carson

yey, mother!

Well called Will

I got that one wrong - had thought she had been in the running but Gluck had got the slot (Carson was heavily rumoured that year)

The bookies did well again with their odds - one of the top favourites.

I thought something along the lines of what Paul wrote. So this morning I'm surprised, but congratulations to Anne Carson!

Paul wrote: "Well called Will

I got that one wrong - had thought she had been in the running but Gluck had got the slot (Carson was heavily rumoured that year)

The bookies did well again with their odds - one..."

Wow, I never get this sort of thing right. I'm shocked!

So pleased, this is well deserved recognition (says a biased Canadian).

This is delightful news! Definitely well deserved.

So fir someone who has not read her what would you all recommend

Wrong Norma is a good start. her most recent, or
Glass, Irony and God as they serve as samplers incorporating the variety of her styles and genres from story, poetry, and essay. For some of the works based on classic works, you'll want to have an idea of the work from another translation to compare I think.

I haven't read any of her works either. Will start with Autobiography of Red.

I also suggest watching some videos of her live reading and interviews from Youtube as she does have some wit and personality.
Here is a link to her reading one of her more popular pieces.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9F9xU...

Ashamed to say I’ve never heard of Anne Carson. I’ve just put Wrong Norma on hold on Indyreads.

This was very interesting, and an author I have not read. I was recommended to start with The Beauty of the Husband, and was very lucky to snatch it before another at the library.