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Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences

Questions About Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences

by John Allen Paulos

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In the chapter on coincidence and probability, Paulos states: "The surprising likelihood of coincidence is illustrated by the following well-known result in probability. Since a year has 366 days (if you count February 29), there would have to be 367 people gathered together in order for us to be absolutely certain that at least two people in the group have the same birthday. Why?" Am I crazy, or is this wrong?
Mehdi Sheikh By mathematical probability by the time you get to 82-85 people the probability of two people sharing a birthday is 100%. But the statement posted is …moreBy mathematical probability by the time you get to 82-85 people the probability of two people sharing a birthday is 100%. But the statement posted is not about mathematical probability but about logical certainty. While the probability is very small it could still be possible that 366 people all have a different birthday in a year with 366 days, but once you add one more person that probability of a new person having a unique birthday disappears because there are no more available days.(less)
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