EU Spectacle
The word spectacle is carefully chosen, since this is what the current drama of which Greece is the symptom, not the cause, has become. It no longer bears any relationship to coherent democratic leadership or process of governance in a workable political and currency union. The cancellation at a moment’s notice of a summit of all EU leaders is extraordinary.
There is a problem with Greece, but it is not that difficult to solve. Indeed this blog working alone would be able to negotiate a workable solution. What is proving impossible is to find an acceptable solution, because the institutions normally established to process decision making at national and international levels are not there, or there in such abundance nobody can detect who is in charge. And to make matters worse the structure of the currency itself is unsustainable as it lacks a treasury and a finance minister answering to an elected government. A committee of finance ministers at loggerheads, elected by only one member state in each case, on conflicting mandates and to differing electoral timetables will work only in the good times and becomes dysfunctional under pressure.
So all we know at this moment is that Greece may or may not go bust tomorrow, the euro looks more like an impediment to growth than an engine of it, and the reputation of the EU as a coherent political union is severely damaged. Beneath that a big gap is developing between the north and the south of Europe, between the politicians and their electors everywhere and between those in the eurozone who want to stand firm to high principle even if it brings the whole thing down, led by the Germans, and by those who feel pragmatic reality demands compromise, led by France and Italy.
At the heart of of this crisis now engulfing the whole EU are three violated principles. You cannot have a democratic political union without an elected forum from which all authority flows. You cannot have a currency which cannot be printed. You cannot have capitalism which does not permit debtors to go bust. The first is violated because the whole EU is wrongly configured. The last two are rescinded because Germany says No.
message 801:
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Linda
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Jan 17, 2016 07:41AM
What kind of weather are you having lately? Here for the past month it's been despicably cold. That by the way is another problem. If we move somewhere other than Arizona, how will we put up with the winter and spring weather? I'm even complaining about the weather here!
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Yes, China is very old but it is also very Eastern. Do you think that traditional Chinese thinking can be adapted to modern ways? Or does China have to change? They have already changed. But do they have to change more?
I remember taking a course in modern China when I was in college. It included some of the history BEFORE they got rid of the last emperor. I was shocked and disbelieving to learn how little respect traditional Chinese had for individuals, especially individuals with little money and status. For instance landlords with sedan chairs used to run them down in the streets and think nothing of it. This, by the way, was not true in Japan.The way they ran their court in the Forbidden City was 100 times worse than the Turks in the days of Suleiman. Talk about harems and harem politics! China had its own brand of corruption that was much greater than anybody else's. Have you ever read about the Last Empress of China? She had never even been officially crowned. She just took over.
Even if the Chinese had what you called the biggest economy I don't think the world currency would be the yuan. It's not stable enough even if it became big enough. Also China is a follower, not a leader in the world economy and in politics, etc.
China couldn't possibly be a leader in world politics or the economy because it is the essence of what is Eastern, not Western. And the world is now very much Western.
If the modern Chinese dress up in business suits and drive cars, fly on planes, and take trains, none of this is Chinese. It was all imported from the West. If they use computers, they all came from America. They might manufacture and assemble the computers, but they didn't invent or design them.
Yes, what about the business of leaving the EU? I saw that in your blog. What is happening? When is the vote?
Do most people in Britain still want to leave the EU?
What are the different arguments pro and con for staying in the EU or exiting?
What are the benefits of being in the EU if you are not part of the currency zone? I thought it was mostly a currency, the euro.
What is it that people in England don’t like about being part of the EU? Do they perceive it as being controlled by Germany, the old enemy or what?
I understand that Germany and England are huge trade partners. The captain on the QM2 pointed out that the North Sea going into the English Channel had the busiest shipping lanes in the world. I don't suppose this would be affected by whether you are a member of the EU or not?
Linda wrote: "If the modern Chinese dress up in business suits and drive cars, fly on planes, and take trains, none of this is Chinese. It was all imported from the West. If they use computers, they all came fro..."China is becoming westernised but in an eastern way. They do things differently but they nevertheless produce impressive results. China will always be China. But it will not be a backward China. At present it is part ultra modern and part backward. I gather from people who have travelled there extensively that there is not much middle in between and this is what China is now beginning to prioritise.
Nevertheless because China has reported the slowest growth in 25 years all the world stock markets have turned negative. London is down 10% this year and we are still in January. World oil prices are now at their lowest for many years. None of that would be happening, as the US is doing pretty well, if China were just a side show.
Linda wrote: "Yes, what about the business of leaving the EU? I saw that in your blog. What is happening? When is the vote?"We don't know when the vote is because Cameron is still negotiating a revised membership package, but that should be completed by the end of Feb. If it is the date will be announced and it be probably in the summer.
At the moment the Leavers and Reamains are about even in the polls, but I think the Remains will pull ahead when the campaign takes hold.
Linda wrote: "What are the different arguments pro and con for staying in the EU or exiting?"The Leavers want to regain control of all law making and become fully independent and have Britain paddle its own canoe in the world. The Remains see a united Europe as the happy ending of centuries of conflict and they believe our prosperity and full employment would be put at risk by walking away. The leavers also want to close our borders to EU migrants.
Linda wrote: "What are the benefits of being in the EU if you are not part of the currency zone? I thought it was mostly a currency, the euro."The benefits are less because we are not in the Euro. The problem is the pound is overvalued making our exports expensive and EU imports cheap. Which is why we concentrate on services and shopping and have an over large financial sector. At the moment you need 1.30 euros to buy 1 pound.
Linda wrote: "What is it that people in England don’t like about being part of the EU? Do they perceive it as being controlled by Germany, the old enemy or what?"The benefits of the EU is that there are no trade barriers, it is the world's largest single market, all citizens have a right to live and work in any country and own assets etc and can travel freely without any visas etc and work anywhere without green cards etc. It is like one big country in that regard. So I think the majority will decide to vote Remain because to leave is to leap into the dark.
Europe is waking up to the fact it would be a disaster if we left because Germany would be all powerful, so it looks more likely than it did that Cameron will be given a deal that the Brits will go for.
Linda wrote: "I understand that Germany and England are huge trade partners. The captain on the QM2 pointed out that the North Sea going into the English Channel had the busiest shipping lanes in the world. I do..."Oh yes it might be! It may not be possible to get a trade deal with the EU on terms we like. Then we would have to turn to China, Russia etc for new markets. The long term impact could be quite a lot more profound than people think. Of course we are very close to America but America may not be so interested in us if we cannot access them euro politics as we do at the moment.
On the contrary, the oil market drop has to do with world oil prices and production including the US. China doesn't produce oil that I've ever heard about. As far as some of these explanations that you get about why the market drops, such as China, I wouldn't believe everything you hear. In the US there's also a lot of unemployment. And it's getting worse. I think that is de-emphasized in the analysis about the stock market. The stock market traders don't care. It isn't their job.
I bet the people who want to remain in the EU in Britain will prevail. Since they already belong to the EU it would take quite something to get them to want to leave. It wouldn’t be a casual decision or just vague dissatisfaction.
What do you think about the migrants? What would you do with them? How many would you admit to Great Britain? Where would you put them? The Russian expert we know says that Germans are building housing complexes outside Cologne near Dusseldorf for the migrants. That was near where we were driving last summer.
You need 1.30 euros to buy 1 pound. Wow! The currencies are closer than I thought. I thought there was a bigger difference. The last time I looked the dollar and the euro were about equal. Our trip to Germany/Luxembourg/Belgium last summer was cheaper than the trip three years before because the euro was closer to the dollar.
You says “Europe is waking up to the fact that it would be a disaster if we left because Germany would be all powerful”. To me that sounds wild. I thought the EU and the euro were Germany’s pet projects anyway. Certainly the currency is the same thing as the old mark. I thought the other countries of Europe wanted to share the German currency.
I don't see the North Sea shipping lanes being disturbed. Believe me, the place looks almost like a parking lot in places it is so crowded with ships!
Linda wrote: "On the contrary, the oil market drop has to do with world oil prices and production including the US. China doesn't produce oil that I've ever heard about. As far as some of these explanations that..."No China does not produce it; it buys it and because its economy has slowed too much is being produced. There is a knock on effect.
Linda wrote: "You says “Europe is waking up to the fact that it would be a disaster if we left because Germany would be all powerful”. To me that sounds wild. I thought the EU and the euro were Germany’s pet pro..."The currency was France's idea (Mitterand).
Linda wrote: "What do you think about the migrants? What would you do with them? How many would you admit to Great Britain? Where would you put them? The Russian expert we know says that Germans are building hou..."It is difficult because there is no doubt that Europe has played a major part in creating the failed states and chaos from which these people are fleeing, but in the case of Britain we are already full, which is why there is so much hostility to immigration. Britain every year takes more migrants from within the EU than all the rest of Europe put together. This is where the Leave campaign draws its strength.
I think our population is rising so fast that we are set to overtake Germany within twenty years. Unfortunately with this austerity programme of Osborne and Cameron the pressure on schools, health services and housing is in some areas desperate.
Germany has spare space in the East which is very depopulated, so theoretically it can cope, but it took a million in 2015 which is a lot.
Too much is being produced because Saudi Arabia, Iran, etc keep on pumping the oil for political reasons of their own having nothing to do with China. The US also produces its own having nothing to do with China either. Maybe we will get cheaper gas. How about $.99/gallon?
It doesn't matter whose idea the currency was. It's still the German mark if Germany's involved in it. Otherwise I don't see how the Germans would ever have agreed to it. It's a union where everybody benefits from being raised to the German mark. That's how I've always thought of it and how everyone I know thinks of it.
When we were driving around Germany it seemed that almost everyone was crowded into urban spaces. Then you would have large rural areas where little settlement was allowed. Then you'd run into another urban area. If they developed suburbs they'd have more space for settlement. In other words, let's have more sprawl. This would allow room for migrants, too. Don't put everyone into the urban areas. It just doesn't work.
Linda wrote: "It doesn't matter whose idea the currency was. It's still the German mark if Germany's involved in it. Otherwise I don't see how the Germans would ever have agreed to it. It's a union where everybo..."Yes but the huge benefit for Germany, especially during the costs of reunification, was that it was the mark significantly devalued making German goods cheap, That is how it became rich.
Linda wrote: "When we were driving around Germany it seemed that almost everyone was crowded into urban spaces. Then you would have large rural areas where little settlement was allowed. Then you'd run into anot..."You were in the crowded western part of Germany. The further east you go it thins out.
Maybe the mark was devalued, but it's still Germany's show, Germany's currency union. At least that's how I've always viewed it. Supposedly the Russians view it that way, too. Despite WW2 Germany still seems to be the lead European country on the Continent.
We were in the eastern part of Germany three years ago when we visited Weimar and drove past Leipzig. We also stayed on the outskirts of Berlin in Potsdam. I saw Coburg as we drove past, too, the place of Hitler's famous march before we drove into Nuremberg and Bavaria. It followed the same model of dense cities and then countryside with no suburbs. We drove through a very large rural area right before we drove into Weimar. It was part of Thuringia and was surrounded by the Thuringian Forest. At one point we entered a deep valley filled with trees. It was overcast. There were clouds. There was a spooky effect. You couldn't see the bottom as we crossed it on a bridge. It was part of the Thuringer Wald. We even saw the "Devil's Valley". It was more rural and had more tunnels than any other area we drove through. But that just emphasizes what I said: cities and then country with no suburbs. They need more sprawl Los Angeles style. Then there would be more room for migrants.
I know what you mean, but America has so much space sprawl is no problem. More densely populated countries are much more averse to sprawl.
Maybe I didn't notice that Germany is depopulated in the East because despite the Thuringian Forest and the gap in settlement between Hamburg and Berlin except for small towns like Putlitz (what our cat was named after) it still had more settlement and more density than the American West. I'm used to driving through wide open spaces, remember. I should send you some road videos of I-10 through southern New Mexico where the only towns are Lordsburg, Deming, and finally Las Cruces along the Rio Grande. Driving up to Santa Fe from Las Cruces on I-25 is even more deserted and wild looking. Even driving up the west coast can start to look wild and deserted when you get to either the Pacific Northwest in California or places like Weed on I-5.
You say that much more densely populated countries are more adverse to sprawl. How so? You’d think they would demand some of that rural land to spread out and have more room. Apparently in Germany some of this rural land is still owned by noble families. Some of them have vast holdings. They should rent something out.
Have you ever been to Thuringia? It's a unique region with its own food. The restaurant at the Dorint Hotel in Weimar featured Thuringian specialties. I am going to send you photos of this dinner from July of 2012. See what you think. You can't tell me if you have ever eaten anything like it.
It's hard to believe that England has more population than Germany. However if you are talking about immigrants, I remember seeing mostly Germans in Germany. I haven't traveled extensively in England since I've been an adult, but on my two shore excursions somehow I never managed to notice all your immigrants. Both the tour to Salisbury/Stonehenge/New Forest and the tour of the Tudor House and Garden in Old Town Southampton produced mostly Englishmen. I don't think I saw anybody else. However others who have traveled to England have said that they notice hordes of foreigners and immigrants. I have noticed for instance in some of the email I get from various places in England that they feature pictures of non English peoples. I have one right now from Kew Gardens that features foreigners. And they don't mean tourists. I guess this is the model that England and Europe are importing from America. You have to have immigrants to grow. I know America's population growth continues for that reason. There are always immigrants.
Linda wrote: "It's hard to believe that England has more population than Germany. However if you are talking about immigrants, I remember seeing mostly Germans in Germany. I haven't traveled extensively in Engla..."This is true. The plus is that modern Britain is multi-cultural and although there are some strains, the notion is a success. British means all colours, ethnicities and religions, not white protestant English.
Here is my first blog on the American Presidential race. It will entertain you! http://www.malcolmblair-robinson.co.u...
Yes, but the problem is when you think of England you think of white Protestant English or WASPs. You don't want them to disappear. Look at all they accomplished for history. They still need to be an identifiable group, don't you think? By the way, these people who mentioned that England is full of the non-English these days were mostly tourists and professors who were traveling in England as tourists. They were disappointed. They wanted to see the traditional English peoples.
Do you think that German socialism that works well in Scandanavian countries, too, would work just as well if the countries became multi-ethnic? Of course it is a theoretical question. Nobody knows the answer.
Yes, it's an amusing blog. I've been wondering why I keep on getting email that mentions Trump. In fact, he's all I hear about. I was wondering what was going on out there. Either I hear about Trump and click it off or I see some sort of reference to Hillary. That's absolutely all I see anywhere. Just clicking them off seems to do no good! They come back the next day.
Despite the fact that the business of America is business, businessmen don't get elected as President. At least up until now. Wilkie was a businessman of sorts in 1940, but he didn't get elected. Herbert Hoover had made a fortune before he was elected, but he wasn't a billionaire. But there's always a first. Somebody has to get elected.
You say British means all colors, ethnicities, religions, etc. But that's an American notion. I know Britain had an empire of many ethnicities. But originally it was for the English to live abroad, not for the natives to come to England. America was the country of immigrants.
Linda wrote: "You say British means all colors, ethnicities, religions, etc. But that's an American notion. I know Britain had an empire of many ethnicities. But originally it was for the English to live abroad,..."Yes you are right, but it has all changed now, It began in the fifties.
Linda wrote: "Do you think that German socialism that works well in Scandanavian countries, too, would work just as well if the countries became multi-ethnic? Of course it is a theoretical question. Nobody knows..."I would think so. I am not sure how German socialism differs from the British model but according to American notions both main political parties in the UK are socialist because both maintain the welfare state. But all UK parties are also capitalist.
Linda wrote: "Despite the fact that the business of America is business, businessmen don't get elected as President. At least up until now. Wilkie was a businessman of sorts in 1940, but he didn't get elected. H..."I read that if he gets elected, and it is a big if, he will be the first non-politician ever to become President. I think you are going to end up with the voting choice of the first woman or the first non-politician.
