On the importance of Trends

Who's to say what it's going to be: vampires, wizards, mommy-porn, ghosts, zombies, romance

Or mix and match from the above, zombie-romance anyone?

What makes these stories popular? What is it that hits a nerve with the reading public?

No one knows.

That's pithy and probably not what anyone wants to hear, but it's also the truth.

Luck plays a big factor, to be sure, as does word-of-mouth and quality of the writing. In the end, no one really knows though. There is no magic formula, no secret recipe to what makes a novel transform from a book to a phenomenon.
Of course that doesn't stop people from trying to find it. There are many who try and chase the trends, to capitalize on the "next big thing". Such people are the literary equivalent of ambulance chasing lawyers. Also destined to be right behind the curve.

Writers don't like to hear this. It strikes them as horribly cruel, and maybe it is. I, for one, hate the idea that the ultimate success or failure of my chosen profession has been left up to random chance. There are things you can do to increase your chances. You can write a great book, you can spread the word through a few marketing strategies. Those things will increase your odds a bit, but it doesn't guarantee success.

Human beings are different in certain ways, but in so many others we are the same. People react to things in surprising similar ways. That's how trends start in the first place, but there is no way to know what ideas will entrance people and what ideas will leave their heads as quickly as the came.

Chasing trends is the wrong approach, trying to predict them is even worse.

The best that any writer can hope for is to love what they write. To treat each book like a beautiful orchid. Water it, nurture it and hope that it grows big and strong. They may never talk about your orchid on Good Morning America, but hopefully it will provide you with enough fruit to eat.