Kevin Land Patrick's Blog, page 2

RISE OF FIRE

2025 has been an explosive year for wildfires. As I write this, a thick haze of smoke you can taste pervades the sky. Over 150,000 acres are burning in Colorado. Another 280,000 acres are burning in California, and the Lee Fire, near Meeker, Colorado is doubling and tripling as low (8-12%) humidity, 90+ degree temperatures, and 20-40 mph winds pummel firefighters. 2025 has seen over 3.5 million acres burned across the country.

Wildfire has always been a fact of life. Timothy Egan’s The Big Burn is a page-turning account of the 1910 fire the size of the State of Connecticut that swept across Washington, Idaho and Montana in a single weekend. Smoke clouded skies in Chicago and New York. That fire birthed knowledge of forest stewardship and fire prevention.

As we turn the page on the first quarter of the 21st century, the challenges intensify. A NOAA report identified that between 1985 and 2015, large wildfires had doubled. Why? The same report found that with every 1˚C increase, wildfire increases by as much as 600%. It’s not difficult to understand why.

The five drivers of wildfire are: 1) increased temperatures; 2) extended wildfire seasons; 3) extended drought; 4) a charged atmosphere; and 5) enhanced drying of organic matter. While the igniting factors haven’t changed; eighty percent fires are the result of man (the next highest cause is lightning). But the difference is the rate growth and scope of fires.  

One need not look beyond the extended drought in the West. In the 1900s drought frequency on average was once every 8-10 years. Since 1995, the rate has increased to once every 3-5 years. And the droughts have become  more severe. The drying effect on organic matter, together with a super-charged atmosphere leads to larger and more severe fires. For every 1˚C rise in atmospheric temperature, the atmosphere stores an additional 7% more water, heat, and energy. Remember, the Bunsen burner and glass beaker back in high school science class, heat water and steam (energy) results.

An example of the explosive growth of fire is the Lee fire that is now burning in Colorado. Believed to have resulted from a lightning strike on August 2nd, it spread to 700 acres in one day. Five days later it surpassed 100,000 acres despite an aggressive firefighting campaign by 13 aircraft, 62 engine companies, ground crews, and heavy equipment cutting fire lines. Fifty miles to the southeast, I write this. The pictures below, taken a week apart, speak volumes.

With a non-existent snowpack, dwindling streamflows, temperatures in the 90s, humidity levels hovering between 8-13%, and 20-30 mph winds, the future isn’t bright. For those that still believe climate change is a hoax, look out your window.

DON'T SHOOT THE MESSENGER

My last post, See No Evil, Hear No Evil, Speak No Evil, or How We Learned to Turn a Blind Eye to Avoid Responsibility & Consequences, talked about the dangers and futility of eliminating mention of history as well as climate change and environmental programs designed to assist farmers, water planners, and weather forecasters. This has been a week that has defied the boundaries of rational thought on the subject. And the dangers are real, in my instance, visible from my house.

I sat down to write this substack after the odd week of the firing of the head of the non-partisan Bureau of Labor Statistics, because the numbers weren’t acceptable to the administration (the proverbial shoot the messenger), when a wildfire erupted within sight of my land. Perched 7,100’ atop a pinion and sage brush covered plateau overlooking 14,000’ mountains, I’ve lived in the area for over 40 years. Only in the past ten years or so have we feared wildfire after back to back epic droughts. Since 2000, Colorado has suffered severe droughts in 2002, 2012, 2018, and now 2025. As a water attorney, I pay attention, it’s my job. It used to be a drought every decade or two (1954, 1977, etc.). The frequency and severity of drought is increasing, portrayed graphically below.

Colorado State University “2024 Climate Change in Colorado”

Colorado’s annual average temperature has raised by 2.3˚F since 1980. Models now predict a loss of up to 30% of annual precipitation by 2050. That would be staggering, and not just for Colorado. Colorado is the mother of 158 rivers, including half a dozen that flow through and into the nation’s great Rivers, all originating in and fed by Colorado runoff (Platte, Arkansas, Rio Grande, Colorado, Yampa, San Juan), These rivers support over 80 million people contributing to more than a dozen states, Mexico, and the Mississippi River.

Colorado’s watersheds are unique, capturing most water content in the form of snow and slowly melting off throughout the year to stabilize flows when they are needed in summer months. With less precipitation, and rising temperatures, less water will be captured and more will fall in the form of rain that cannot be stored and may run off as  flood waters.

So, as I watch the brave first responders and air tankers hit the flames from my window, the mere thought that anyone would deny science, deny facts, and fire the messenger doesn’t sit well. Not having the science, the data, stands to place everyone in danger.

SEE NO EVIL, HEAR NO EVIL, SPEAK NO EVIL

Or How We Learned to Turn a Blond Eye to Avoid Responsibility and Consequences

We’ve all seen the proverb, which is believed to have originated in either ancient Chinese philosophy (avoid focusing on negative thoughts, words, actions) or Koshin, the 17th century Japanese folk-religion (behaving well avoids negative repercussions). Honestly though, today the proverb has more to do with the proverb of the ostrich with its head in the sand (in reality, ostriches don’t do this - that was derived from an ancient Roman myth that gave rise to the metaphor for someone avoiding their problems).

Have I lost you? Well the ostrich and the monkeys are a metaphor for what is transpiring today in the battle between politics and science. If we remove any mention of this or that, ban websites, defund, and erase the written science, the problems will all go away. Never happened. Problem solved. Ignorance is bliss. Let’s all forget about the wild hoaxes and attack the real problems like our fellow Americans and chem trails.

Again, it wasn’t always like this. In 1990, the Senate, in a bipartisan vote of 100-0, passed Senate Bill 169 (which became Public Law 1010-606) entitled the Global Change Research Act of 1990. The act directed the President, through the Federal Coordinating Council on Science, Engineering, and Technology (Council), to: 1) establish the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences to carry out Council functions under specified provisions of the National Science and Technology Policy, Organization, and Priorities Act of 1976 relating to global change research, and 2) to increase the effectiveness and productivity of Federal global change research efforts by conducting a climate changes assessment report at least as often as once every four years that all agencies have access to in making informed decisions. It’s the law.

This assessment is relied upon by countless public and private parties who utilize the data in developing not just means and methods of combatting effects, but fostering practices for farmers, ranchers, and municipal water supply planners to adapt to changing conditions. It is an extremely useful tool, if you want real data, real facts. The last assessment, conducted in 2023 has taken it off the website, but if you now do a little digging, it still can be located here: https://nca-atlas-nationalclimate.hub...

Will we see another before 2027? Problems don’t go away. Ask the ostrich. Instead, pretending the science doesn’t exist is a motto for the three monkeys. Let’s look at some data out of the 2023 Assessment  and you be the judge of whether this information is useful or should be erased.

·         Since 1970, annual average temperature in the contiguous United States has risen by 2.5 °F and Alaska’s average temperature has risen by 4.2 °F. During that same time, the average temperature for the entire globe rose 1.7 °F. For every additional 1 °C of global warming, the average U.S. temperature is projected to increase by around 2.5 °F (1.4 °C), with greater warming occurring in the northern and western parts of the country. 

·         At +3˚C, seasonal disruptions of agriculture are likely. Some areas in the Northern Great Plains (N. Dakota) may see swings of 8-10˚F from normal on a consistent basis.

·         At +4˚C, Humidity and temperature merge to disrupt agricultural production in vast areas of the country (S. California, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, to name a few) with the emergence of heat index values too extreme for human tolerance.

·         Precipitation patterns will also be dramatically altered with far stronger storms and precipitation in areas like Texas, the South Eastern US, and Northeast, while other areas suffer extreme drought (Arizona, Eastern Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas panhandle, etc).

Ask yourself, is the information helpful? Are you (and your children) better off without the facts being available? Or are you better off being one of the monkeys? We humans are a bright species. We solve problems. We adapt to the ones we cannot. That takes information.

 

ECO-TERRORISM V. RECKLESSNESS

This article appears in my Substack: K.LandPatrick’s Water Lawg

Eco-terrorism is the use of violence or threat of violence to achieve an environmental goal. Usually, this involves bio-centric oriented individuals (who believe all living things should have equal protection from harm) who seek to disrupt or eliminate those persons or industries that harm the planet. Think Earth First, Animal Liberation Front, the Unabomber. Most people would agree eco-terrorists should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law, right?

Well, what if the coin was flipped? If the eco-terrorism was committed out of ignorance or greed? Would you consider a pass for them? Of course not.

In my May 26th article, I touched on the extreme environmental harm that cryptocurrencies and their mining cause. For reference, a single cryptocurrency transaction uses 6.2 million times the water used in a single credit card transaction. And this is not just the wasting of scarce water resources, it’s affecting your electrical bills (more on that later).

Up to thirty million people in the United States suffer from water shortage. Worldwide, that figure is three billion. Water is a precious natural resource that knows no substitute.

Recent studies have found a 150% annual increase in the water footprint of cryptocurrency mining since 2020. The energy consumption of cryptocurrencies is estimated to now consume up to 2.3% of all energy consumption in the United States, and that figure is projected to rise.

Why do cryptocurrencies use such vast amounts of energy and water? It’s a long explanation essentially reduced to a couple of sentences: Value is generated by the creation of new blocks in an underlying blockchain through, essentially, a guessing computerized game. It’s a trial and error guessing game generating up to 350 quintillion computerized guesses every second by linked computers. That’s energy intensive. Water is consumed to generate the power and cool the massive computer networks. Roughly 3,520 gallons of fresh water is used in every transaction.

Cryptocurrency has already increased electric rates across the country by usurping other demands, forcing plant expansions, that all users pay for and requiring grid upgrades. Most people don’t like increased utility costs and appreciate the value of freshwater. So why?

Cryptocurrency has no intrinsic value. It isn’t a meaningful employment generator. It’s just another currency for those to speculate in. Cryptocurrencies create a cost to the environment and your pocketbook. The White House website now boasts the “value” of cryptocurrencies and a pledge to “ Make America the “Crypto Capital of the World,” while investors boast diversification through cryptocurrencies.  

So back to the word eco-terrorism. I’m not suggesting cryptocurrencies are forms of terrorism by any means, but they do fit a definition for blind, reckless, and wasteful use of natural resources. If people knew the economic and environmental cost of this nonsensical computer guessing game, most would have the ethics, morality, and common sense to pass on it.

WHY’S THE ENVIRONMENT SO CONTROVERSIAL?

Say the word ENVIRONMENT to ten people and you will get ten different reactions from disdain to reverence. It’s always perspective. In these days where people form their facts from opinions, steeped in the echo chambers of CNN, FOX, MSNBC, and (god-forbid) social media, chances are the spin is something they’ve been force fed.

It wasn’t always like this. And if you personalize the conversation, you’re likely to get a far different reaction. A rancher in Colorado who is forced to contend with the reintroduction of wolves and its impact on his livestock rails against the urban environmentalists who voted the reintroduction into law. Chances are that rancher has a far greater understanding and connection to the natural environment than arm-chair environmentalists in metropolitan Denver. The rancher respects the land, soil, and water on a personal level. The hunter, who is vilified by animal rights extremists (think ALF: Animal Liberation Front or PETA) often has a far greater love and appreciation for the natural environment than those that preach. It’s never black and white.

The transcendentalists of the 1800’s (Ralph Waldo Emerson, Henry David Thoreau, Margaret Fuller, to name a few), gave the natural environment a voice. Theodore Roosevelt and Gifford Pinchot fostered Yellowstone and preserved 172 million acres of National Forests. Few would label Teddy a “radical” environmentalist. There’s that term again, “radical,” that’s being used far too often to voice disdain.

On April 22, 1970, the first Earth Day, twenty million people, 10% of the entire population at the time, marched in favor of environmental protections. That led to the adoption of the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, and Endangered Specie Act. Bipartisan votes in both the House (366 to 11) and Senate (74 to 0) overrode President Nixon’s veto of the Clean Water Act. Remember when bipartisan votes were a thing?

If you ask most people one on one whether they want clean air to breath, clean water to drink and swim in, and the natural environment protected for future generations, I suspect the vast majority would say of course.  The next time you hear terms like “the environment,”  “environmentalists,” or “climate change,” divorce yourself from the partisan echo-chamber and ask yourself honestly what you believe. The previous generation did. My generation did (except for a few outliers).

Now go out in nature and breathe.

WE THE PEOPLE

I was born on the 4th of July and have sworn an oath to the Constitution six times. It means something to me.

Those feelings can be summed up in the beginning language of the Declaration of Independence.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed…

Powerful words put to paper 249 years ago this week. Even the capitalizations used stress the importance of men, all men (and women) over governments. Democracy over Autocracy and Monarchy.

The protections of the Constitution are found in its amendments. The first ten, written by James Madison (the Bill of Rights), were written to satisfy the anti-federalists that feared too much power aggregated in the hands of the government, particularly the executive. Today, Congress and, increasingly, the Judiciary, have given territory under the checks and balances landscape of our three-co-equal branches of government to the executive.

It's a dangerous path that would trouble the founding fathers. Luckily, all power the government (and executive in particular) has is dependent on a greater power. The power of the people. The power of the vote.

It’s not the first time, one branch has vaulted ahead. History is a lesson in swings. James Madison and Alexander Hamilton lobbied  for the Legislative branch to be the strongest, feeling it to be the branch most  accountable to the people. The Warren Court (1953-1969) expanded civil rights and civil liberties lurching ahead of its counterparts. Today, the executive seeks what many see as unrestricted power. It may accomplish that, but the pendulum will swing back. For every action there is a reaction. That is the beauty and strength of the Constitution. 

So, when you read the news (right or left), it’s always good to have perspective. Today’s platforms to control speech, what is read, sexual orientation, media, culture, and thought will be the other party’s platform tomorrow (to the dismay of most in the middle).

The true meaning of the Constitution is to treat your fellow countryman with respect, whether you agree with their philosophies are not. Discourse over discord is what our founding fathers sought. We the people.

THE POWER OF WATER

Normally, I write of water security, water misuse, water conflicts, and climate change impacts to water. Today, everything I see, read, and listen to calls out for healing affect of water.

Today, the news cycle brings us war in Ukraine and the Middle East. A politically motivated assassination in Minnesota, a divisive parade in DC, and millions marching in opposition across the country. A third of the country listens to the news cycle feeding them fears, another third listens to a different news cycle amping them up to resist, while another third has either given up, or perhaps never obsessed about what surrounds them. All three factions need a singular thing, peace. Peace of mind, peace of spirit, peace to be free of the cantankerous hum. Water, the natural environment, and disconnecting can do that.

I am lucky enough to live on the western slope of Colorado, where nature is just outside my window. But, even if you live in LA or New York, nature can be found in a park, along a waterfront, even in a backyard garden bed. Putting the phone down, even for an afternoon, pausing, and looking at nature, a pond, river, or oceanfront, has an immense healing effect.  

The Egyptians built viewing platforms along the Nile, the Roman baths were thought o have god-like healing effects, and Teddy Roosevelt felt rivers and the natural environment were so important to ou country’s health and future, that he championed the first federal water policies and protected over 230 million acres by creation of 150 national forests, five national parks, and scores of national monuments and sanctuaries.

Last week, I spent three days off-grid, next to a trout stream. Sitting around a campfire with my wife, dog, and listening to a rushing river was relaxing, and invigorating at once. Five chapters (the first five chapters) of a new book. It works for me.  

THE COMING WATER WAR IN AFRICA? THE DENIAL OF THE NILE

There have been countless conflicts over water. From ancient Babylonia’s damming of the Tigris (1700 BC), to Machiavelli and Leonardo da Vinci’s plan on behalf of Florence to cut off Pisa’s water supply (1503), to Arizona calling out its militia and national guard (coined the Arizona Navy) in 1935 to prevent the construction of Parker Dam on the Colorado River, the history of water wars is lengthy.  

In my June 25, 2021, blog, I wrote of the conflict on the Nile between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt (and my first novel, Threatened Waters, featured it in 2014). Well, things haven’t gotten any better…at all.

Ethiopia, with Chinese backing through China’s Gezhouba Corporation and Exim Bank, has been constructing the Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile since 2011. It has been filling for the last four years and has begun to generate hydropower. When completed and filled, it will generate 6,450 MW of electricity, Africa’s largest hydro facility. Downstream Sudan and Ethiopia aren’t happy. Egypt has rattled sabers of war stating it intends to “defend its national security.” With 90% of its population dependent on the Nile’s flow, Egypt is understandably wary.

Now that it is in place, the time for military strikes may be passed. Destruction of the dam would result in catastrophic damage downstream. China’s increased presence in Africa in search of raw materials and strategic geopolitical engagement, telegraphs that it won’t let its investment be taken by force.

So, what to do? The Nile has a history of poor management and even poorer cooperation stemming from failed and often ignored Colonial Britain agreements (1929 Nile Waters Agreement) to the bilateral Egypt/Sudan 1959 Agreement. What may alter this historical deadlock are infrastructure realities. Ethiopia’s electric grid is nowhere near able to handle the electric load from the dam. Cooperation with its neighbors, Sudan, Uganda, and Egypt is needed to develop a 21st century grid capable of monetizing and delivering the hydropower. Basin cooperation will have to occur. If this isn’t in the cards, China and Ethiopia’s five billion dollar investment may well become a white elephant.

CORAL: You Need it More than You Know

I’ve written before that water issues and climate change are inescapably linked. This applies not just to the effect on terrestrial habitat like rivers, groundwater, and the like, but the marine environment.

I grew up a fair amount of my youth in the South Pacific, born in July (a water sign), with over 2,000 dives (along with divemaster, rescue diver, high-altitude, etc. certifications).  The awe and beauty I’ve seen I fear will no longer be present for our children to enjoy.

Coral reefs make up 0.01% of the sea bottom. But over 25% of all sea life lives in that fraction of the ocean. And that endangered habitat is critical to billions of humans on the planted. Reefs provide the backbone of all sea life, fish stocks, and protect coastal zones. Without the reefs the marine life that billions on the planet rely on for economic life and food will be impaired, lost, eliminated.

In the last forty years, global temperatures have risen 1.2 F degrees and the result has been the loss of 50% of al coral reefs. The general acceptance is that if temperatures rise to +2 degrees, 99% of all reefs will be lost. And, at the present rate of warming, that will be in the next generation’s lifetime.

Three culprits attack the reefs: Heat, acid, and turbulence. When subjected to these influences, corals, which are animals (colonial invertebrates to be exact), become what is known as “bleached.” When stressed by temperature, acid, or storms, coral expel zooxanthellac (algae in their tissues) leaving only their white skeletons.

·         Heat: Corals live in a narrow band of temperature. Too hot, they die. Thermal stress is the largest threat to coral.

·         Acidification: The ocean is a large carbon sink. Increased carbon dioxide absorption results in lower PH (increase acid in the ocean).

·         Storms: As global and sea temperatures rise, stronger and more frequent storms occur challenging the already weakened coral structure.

It’s not all gloom and doom, with global efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions, the pattern can be slowed. And, there are a lot of bright, new ideas bubbling up (sorry for the cliché). Until massive cuts to NOAA’s budget, studies abounded to combat reef loss. NGO’s like The Coral Reef Alliance and Florida’s Coral Restoration Foundation have been bright spots in protecting reefs. Social media has played a positive role in educating care when snorkeling, diving, and boating around reef systems. And, new technology like concrete breeze blocks to artificially assist coral formation and coral nurseries for transplanting coral, hold promise.

In short, this is our generation’s problem to solve. I’ve had countless dives on the Great Barrier, and throughout the Caribbean, Red Sea, and South Pacific. It used to be uncommon, shocking to see a bleach event, now it is the norm. We created the problem, and we can fix it so that the next generation can have the wonder of the sea I have been lucky enough to experience.  

DAM(N), I HAD NO IDEA I WAS DEWATERING AMERICA

I’ve railed against the wasteful and dumb use of water before. These days, the tech billionaires and the administration actively promote cryptocurrencies and other wasteful uses of water.  A single bit-coin transaction can use 6.2 million times more water than a credit card swipe. Why? Electricity, power demands.

Electric demand in the US is expected to increase by over 75% in the next 25 years. Much of that demand will come from crypto-mining and data centers. Another chunk will come from rising temperatures resulting in longer cooling seasons and higher cooling loads (climate change). So, what does that have to do with water?

We are still using technology from the mid-20th century to generate electricity. Turbines driven by steam, created by superheating water. On average 2.0 gallons of freshwater are consumed to generate one kWh of electricity. The exception, of course, is hydro-electric dams/turbines. Here’s the average breakdown:

 ·         Water Used in Coal Fired Power Plant to Generate One MWh:          35,000 gal

·         Water Used in Nuclear Power Plant to Generate One MWh:                2,200 gal 

·         Water Used in Gas Fired Power Plant to Generate One MWh:            2,800 gal

 The energy needed to mine one bitcoin has been estimated to conservatively require 155 MWh, about the amount of energy a single family residence uses over 50 days. So, if the mining of a single bitcoin consumes the same amount of water as 6-7 homes in a year, how responsible (or irresponsible) is it to promote and partake in crypto-currencies?

Cryptocurrencies produce no independent tangible benefit. They are just another currency, just another investment vehicle.  A wasteful footprint the world cannot afford. I’m an optimist. I suspect that if people knew these facts, they would choose not to delve into cryptocurrencies.