Nicola Griffith's Blog, page 8

Change in focus and schedules

From now on I’m going to keep bird flu posts to every week or 10 days. There’s little I can do about any of it; none of my suggestions for appropriate precautions have changed; and there’s too much other stuff going on in the world that needs paying attention to.

So here are some snippets and then an overall assessment of where we’re at.

Another death from H5N1 in Cambodia, this time a two-year old boy. There’s no information on the clade. Some of Cambodia’s recent human cases have been linked to a new reassortant that includes internal genes from the newer 2.3.4.4b clade. The older 2.3.2.1c clade still circulates in Cambodian poultry, with sporadic infection reported in people.New Jersey Department of Health reports H5 avian flu cluster in cats. According to CIDRAP, the NJDH announced 28 February that H5 avian flu has been confirmed in a feral cat from Hunterdon County that had severe disease, including neurologic symptoms, and was humanely euthanized. Other cats at the same property were sick, and a second H5 infection was found in an indoor-outdoor cat. Clusters are Not Good.CIDRAP also reports on the WHO’s seasoal flu vaccine choices for the 25/26 season. The tl;dr version: they swap out the H3N2 components but keep the current 2009 H1N1 and influenza B strains the same. Different strains of eah are used in egg-based vaccines vs. cell culture-, recombinant protein- or nucleic acid-based vaccines. all the details are at the link.

So where do we stand? Well, if you consider that in any given year the underlying odds of some kind of viral pandemic hover around 2%, I think we are now approaching 10%, perhaps a little less.

Katelyn Jetalina, of Your Local Epidemiologist, suggests we’re at 8% probability—and that that will bump alarmingly higher when we see sustained transmission in pigs.

Image via YLE (Katelyn Jetelina) I hope she forgives me borrowing it in exchange for the link—her newsletters are very useful Go subscribe.

Sporadic pig infections are already happening, of course, and I’ve already explained why that is so worrisome. But here’s the refresher:

Pigs are an ideal recombination chamber for bird flu and human flu because the cell membranes in pig airways offer a particularly convenient route for the cell to be infected by both kinds of virus at the same time. (Human infection from animal sources seems so far to be via fomites—touching contaminated things.)If this happens at the same time, it leads to a hugely increased risk of recombinationRecombination is how viruses randomly mutate, increasing the possibility of finding a way to lead to human-to-human transmission via respiratory droplets—as human flu does now

And because I think there’s actually far more of this going on right now than is being reported due to lack of general and specific testing, and because of the lackadaisical vaccination of both animals and people, I’d put the risk a little higher than YLE does.

There again, as I’ve made clear many times, I’m not a professional; she is. Further, I freely admit I’m possibly using interest in bird flu and our government’s (lack of) response to it as a) a proxy for and b) to sublimate my anger and worry about the rest of the world.

That anger and worry and sheer sadness surfaced strongly on Friday when I watched the appalling display of bullying, bad manners, and brutal breakage of a world order that has helped to at least partially protect billions of people from the worst excesses of autocrats and dictators and to rein-in the revanchist tendencies of leaders such as Putin.

But because the worry has now burst its banks and overrun my best efforts to channel it productively, as it has now declared itself in no uncertain terms, it’s time to start facing it squarely and talking about it. Hence the new bird-flu reports schedule.

Stay safe, everyone—at least safe from foolish accidents. I suspect there’s a time coming when some of us might have to choose very deliberately not to stay safe because what is required of us might not be possible from a place of safety. But that’s for another time, and possibly a more private venue.

Meanwhile, to brighten your Sunday here’s a picture of George who was getting a bit fed up of being constantly asked to strike poses with his face in profil and his claws partially extended so I can figure out how to turn my cat drawings into Early Medieval-style illustrations for my on-going Patreon project.

Womens’ History Month

Today is the first day of March, Women’s History Month—at least in the US, UK, and Australia. Canada has it in October. I’m honestly not sure about the rest of the world.

On this day I’d like to remind readers that

History is not fact; history is just a story a culture tells itself to explain who we are today in light of what we think we know about the past. In the anglophone world, recorded history has been written by men about men.If women are mentioned at all, it is through the lens of the men telling the story and coloured by their biasBut in most of these stories, women are missing.These stories by men about men gradually assume the weight of History—they become Fact, Writ, That’s How It Was—and influence our understanding of the world today.These stories are very difficult to changeThe best way—the only way—to change the story is to overwrite it with another, better story

Which is why some writers are running a month-long promotion of books written by women about women in the past. Hild will be celebrated on March 9—the day after International Women’s Day.

A poem I’m rather fond of perfectly encapsulates this notion of history.

In fact, I like it so much it became the title of one of essays about Hild, and history, and how vital it is that we tell these missing stories. You can read My Story, Mystery: A Letter to Hild of Whitby on my Essays page.

If you’re interested in reading some other stories about women, here are some of the books being promoted. Take a look.

Myrddin—environmentalist and prophet?

https://www.disneyclips.com/images3/swordinstone.html

There are many Merlins. Most readers know him as a wizard in a pointy hat from animated screen depictions such as the Sword in the Stone, or an old-school druidical advisor to King Arthur, or as the young man with medical training who also has the Sight from Mary Stewart’s the Crystal Cave. My own Myrddin, in Spear, is an abusive, power-hungry sorcerer of minor talent who in Early Medieval Wales pimps out his sister, Elen, to the sidhe in exchange for magic objects and influence. But whether druid, prophet, wizard or counsellor Myrddin is almost always portrayed as rather gender nonconforming—much more likely to be wandering about under the trees having visions than blundering about the battlefield having awesome sex after whacking enemies heads off with swords.

But Merlin as an environmentalist, as the authors of a recent paper suggest in the Guardian?1 The Myrddin Poetry Project is a three-year project by Welsh academics to translate over a 100 old Welsh poems about Myrddin. Some of these date to tenth century—though they purport to be about an earlier, ‘Dark Ages’ figure. I haven’t read the translations (not the new ones, anyway) but I wonder if Merlin-as-environmentalist might be pushing things a little too far—though I understand the need for nifty, headline-worthy soundbites. But, well why not? Maybe it’s time to rescue him from Geoffrey of Monmouth’s portrayal and rehabilitate him. I won’t be able to make up my mind until I read all the new translations—which I will.

You can, too. The project is up in beta—and it is very beta—and very definitely worth a look.

Many thanks to Mary in Chicago for pointing this out—I’ve been buried in my own concerns the last couple of weeks and had completely missed it. ︎

H5N1: Mutating and blowing in the wind

According to CIDRAP, Canada Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) authors describe their discovery of a mutated H5N1 avian flu strain resistant to the antiviral drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu) on eight chicken farms in British Columbia in October 2024. “Isolates from 8 farms reveal a mutation in the neuraminidase protein (H275Y) that is exceptionally rare among clade 2.3.4.4b viruses (present in 0.045% of publicly available clade 2.3.4.4b isolates),” the researchers wrote. “NA-H275Y is a well-known marker of resistance to the neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir.” The USDA designated the virus as genotype D1.1. “Despite evidence to suggest this substitution reduces viral fitness, viruses harboring this substitution spread rapidly across 8 farms in the 15 days following its initial detection,” the researchers wrote. “As oseltamivir is the most widely used therapeutic and prophylactic against IAV [influenza A virus], the continued circulation of viruses harboring NA-H275Y may necessitate a re-evaluation of influenza treatment strategies in Canada.”A non–peer-reviewed study published on the preprint server bioRxiv suggests that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus shed in poultry droppings can be transmitted by the wind. It might not be peer-reviewed, and its difficult to prove, but as the authors point out, it’s the only explanation that fits.CDC added a few more details about the two recent human cases, including the one from Ohio and a patient from Wyoming. The Ohio patient was hospitalized with respiratory and nonrespiratory symptoms and now recovering at home. A patient from Wyoming who got sick after exposure to backyard poultry remains hospitalized after experiencing both respiratory and nonrespiratory symptoms. In terms of human scorecards: The CDC has confirmed 70 human cases, one of them fatal, since early 2024. The agency has also recorded seven probable cases.Animal scorecards: 166,012,718 US birds affected (wild aquatic birds, commercial poultry and backyard or hobbyist flocks beginning in January 2022). Infections reported in 973 diary herds across 17 states. Countless other animals—wild, in zoos, domesticated, and pets—ranging from seals and raccoons to bears and rats are affected. Many found dead or having to be euthanised. It is especially deadly to cats. Sadly I don’t have a recent count of dead cats, whether domestic kitties, cougars, bobcats, or tigers. But it’s far more than anyone would like.

It is not exaggeration to say that HPAI H5N1 is now everywhere in this country. A panzoonotic blowing in the wind, mutating as it goes…

The day the Nazis died

Except of course they never really did. As some foolish voters are now shocked—shocked!—to find out. But us Leeds lads and lasses have always known, so here’s my favourite hometown band to remind us all. (They speak German right at the beginning because this is live from Essen, not Yorkshire.)1 So listen and then remember Chumbawumba also sang another song that everyone in the north who isn’t a certain social class understands—because the world is always knocking us down, but we always—always!—get back up again…

Tomorrow, maybe, I’ll post the latest scary stuff about bird flu, or maybe I just won’t bother. Maybe I’ll go down down the pub, sling a few pints down my neck and then get into a fucking fight with some of those sleek, self-satisfied voters whose pig ignorance got us all into this mess. 2

Another Yorkshire singer who understands class rage is Jarvis Cocker, from Pulp. That rage feels less clean that Chumbawumba’s righteousness, a little twisty, but still worth a listen: “Common People“.

I’m not pretending to be working class—both my parents were, but I started life in a family hanging by its fingernails to the lower middle class. And once I was about 12, when my mother suddenly started making money with the nursery school she started, I hated, absolutely hated, the worry and self-consciousness both of them felt venturing into places like decent restaurants where they felt they didn’t belong. And then, of course, I left home and found myself not even working class but underclass: queer and poor and unemployed, despised by everyone who wasn’t queer, a sex worker, drug user, or criminal. It gives a person a certain perspective.

So, yes, there are days when I very, very much want to fucking fight.

I was reminded of them myself today, thanks to Nika on Bluesky ︎Pig ignorance is a lovely Yorkshire terms that means willful ignorance: ignoring what’s right in front of you because you just don’t want to know. ︎

Michigan cats catch bird flu from their people

The incident with the Michigan cats, that were so sick they had to be euthanised, is from about eight months ago—though the news is only just being reported today. The rest, sadly, is up to date.

Per the CDC’s latest Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), an investigation into two severe H5N1 illnesses in exclusively indoor cats found that they may have been exposed by symptomatic dairy workers. The CDC suggests that if “occupational exposure to HPAI A(H5N1)-infected livestock is identified among cat owners, and their companion cats are suspected to have HPAI A(H5N1) virus infection, it is important that veterinarians contact state and federal public health and animal health officials to collaborate on joint One Health investigations and testing to protect human and animal health.” Two counties in Ohio have declared a bird flu emergency in order to get state and federal funding to help with the ongoing outbreaks among their massive layer farms. Ohio supplies 10 billion eggs each year, and prodces more than 554 million pounds of chicken, plus a lot of turkey. Eggs are not going to get any cheaper…and the state ranks ninth in turkey production.In Nevada, the egg situation is getting so dire that they’ve suspended some of their usual rules—eggs no longer have to be produced by cage-free birds. Also, those eggs no longer have to be perfectly egg-shaped . If you/re in Nevada, don’t be alarmed if you see weird shapes in your cartons, or weird sizes–they’re safe to eat. EDIT TO ADD I forgot to mention, the cherry on top of the sundae: bird flu has now been detected in rats (in Riverside, California) which are, y’know, everywhere people are.

So things are quietly going to hell in our food supply while the world is distracted by the asset-stripping disguised as a clown show that is our administration. And of course the powers that be have egg on their faces and are still scrambling to rehire all the avian influenza response workers they fired. I’m guessing it’s not going well—not unlike all those staff who oversee our nuclear safety. basically saying, Screw that, we can get other jobs.

Oh well, if we all blow up at least we can stop worrying about not having enough affordable protein to eat.

H5N1, H9N2, and H5N5 go into a bar…

Very briefly: We now have H5N1, H9N2, and H5N5 travelling the wild flyways and starting to play in the same space. The party might be about to get out of hand..

A woman in Wyoming hospitalised with H5N1 bird flu, probably infected via her backyard flock—I don’t know which strain.China has reported two more human infections involving H9N2 avian flu, and, this time, it’s two adults, both women over 50.Another type of highly pathogenic avian influenza has joined the party: H5N5 has been detected in a backyard poultry flock in Newfoundland. Also UK seals. It has also been found in a cat in Iceland. (Previously, in 2023, a bunch of raccoons died of it.) “The United Kingdom is among six countries that have reported H5N5 in birds and mammals since the first of the year, which, alongside Canada and Iceland, also includes Norway, Greenland, and Germany…“A third wild-bird H5N1 (D1.1) to dairy-herd spillover, this time in Arizona. Can you spell ‘acceleration’?

The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) has warned of “unprecedented genetic variability in avian flu subtypes in wild birds and poultry across the world, creating epidemiologic challenges.” No, shit. And, hey, only a dangerously underfunded WHO and an under-staffed, hollowed-out CDC to pay attention…

Dogs and cats in the Early Medieval

The second most-quoted passage in Hild is “Dogs own space and cats own time.”1 In both Hild and Menewood, Hild has a much greater affinity for cats than for dogs—if you’ve read her experience with war dogs you will understand why.

Judging by the illustrations in Early Medieval gospels, for the scribes—the men and women religious who lavished their time, skills, and resources on these magnificent works of art—this sentiment was exactly reversed. (And here I’m talking about actual dogs—not wolves or other canids—and actual cats. There are a couple of illustrations of lions, representing John, of hugely variable quality.)2

Using just two examples—the Lindisfarne Gospels and the Book of Kells—you can see at once that dogs far outnumber cats. In fact, I could find only one illustration of a cat in the earlier gospel (Lindisfarne), and while the Book of Kells has at least two (I’ve found only two but these things can be hard to miss) it is positively stuffed with dogs: dogs intertwined, dogs chasing each other, dogs pointing. Dogs in pairs and threes and single majesty.

People argue (a lot) about the dates for both these incredible books but clearly Lindisfarne came first—you can see the evolution in style from one to the other. The dogs represented seem to be different breeds, too.

If you want to see how I illustrated samples from both to demonstrate my point, as part of my on-going Patreon project to create zoomorphic graphics I’ve just published a new post, Zoomorphs: Dogs!. Enjoy!

The most-quoted is, of course, “Men are afraid women will laugh at them. Women are afraid men will kill them.” ︎Usually, though in the Echternach Gospels the scribe got the symbols for John and Mark mixed up, and swapped an eagle for the lion. They might have been following an earlier, pre-Vulgate convention but I suspect they just got them muddled. ︎

More H5N1 bird flu in cats

No good news today, sorry.

Now been almost 1,000 detections of bird flu in US dairy herds. This is a lot. And given that in Nevada at least two of those have been not of the usual B3.13 genotype but the D1.1 genotype from wild birds—which has been the cause of more severe illness in people—this is Not Good.Poultry flocks all over the country are falling to infection. Expect the price of eggs to keep going up. China reports two more H9N2 avian flu infections in humans—the illnesses so far have been mild H5N1 D1.1 is spreading like wildfire among wild birds—at least 50 unrelated detections including gulls, geese, ducks, birds of prey—and spring migration is coming. It’s going to get worse. More cats dying of bird flu—including one feral cat in California. This is very Not Good News—no one knows how it was infected. Watch your cats closely, please. Especially as birds begin their spring migration.

I’m getting a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach about this. Do please take precautions. And you might want to stock up on eggs.

Bird flu and more

This is a bit late: I’ve been working on four books at once (final proofs on three, pre-submission editing on a new one1) which—you’ll be shocked, shocked to hear!—eats into a person’s time…

Spillovers and starlings

A few days ago the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) confirmed by whole genome sequence the detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, genotype D1.1 in dairy cattle.

This is the genotype currently circulating in wild birds and implicated in human infections, including the fatal case in a Louisiana resident who had contact with sick backyard birds.

Until now, all dairy herd H5N1 detections have been the B3.13 genotype, which causes mild infections in dairy (and poultry) workers, with conjunctivitis as the main symptom.

Nevada officials are, understandably, Not Happy about this and are undertaking a massive cull of starlings to reduce the spread. Which means, I assume, that birds like starlings can spread bird flu. So, once again, please don’t let your cat kill birds: this virus (even the milder-in-people genotype, B3.13) is deadly to felines, whether exotic or domestic. (Edit to add: see comments below.)

The rest of the precautions I’m always yammering about also still apply. Please pay attention. This is not going away—far from it. I’ve just read that flu cases are rising at an unexpected rate, so the odds of a human coinfection with seasonal flu and H5N1 resulting in a dangerous resassortant are higher than ever.

More

I’m watching the continued spread of the more transmissible and more severe illness-causing clade of mpox, the Sudan variety of Ebola (for which there’s no vaccine) breaking out in Uganda, more Marburg in Tanzania, and the widespread presence of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in farmed and wild cervids. But I won’t be really paing that much attention because for me in this time and place, they don’t pose much risk.

What does pose huge risk to us all is the recent reckless dismantling of public health bureaucracy by Executive Order: WHO, CDC, NIH, USAID and more. But that stuff you can read about on any political blog or newsletter. And frankly paying too much attention to it makes me sick with rage—which isn’t helpful for anyone. So for me it’s all about sticking to my zone of control.

I’ll talk about that closer to the time. ︎