The philosopher of science Karl Popper coined the term "risky prediction" to describe the process by which scientists verity untested theories. Good theories, Popper proposed, generate risky predictions.
They presage an unanticipated fact or event that runs a real risk of not occurring or being proven incorrect. When this unanticipated fact proves true or the event does occur, the theory gains credibility and robustness.
For example, Newton's understanding of gravitation was most spectacularly validated when it accurately presaged the return of Halley's comet in 1758. Einstein's theory of relativity was vindicated in 1919 by the demonstration that light from distant stars is "bent" by the mass of the sun, just as predicted by the theory's equations.
Published on January 29, 2017 14:18