Francis Mont's Blog, page 3
July 4, 2020
Is this a tipping point?
According to the Wikipedia definition: “In sociology, a tipping point is a point in time when a group—or many group members—rapidly and dramatically changes its behavior by widely adopting a previously rare practice.”
If we are, then we have two choices: Either we make the necessary changes to behave rationally, to assure our survival, or we go down with our inability to adapt, and become extinct as a species.
So, are we near one in world history?
It seems like that, at least to this alarmist of human behavior.
Let’s look at the possible tipping points.
In climate change we are rapidly approaching the point of no return, after which the runaway climate conditions make it impossible for humans to mitigate or to adapt.
In the pandemic: Since human beings can’t change their behavior patterns sufficiently to prevent exponential acceleration of the disease, we are facing a massive, world-wide death toll.
In word politics, where the USA, Russia and China are on a collision course to start the next arms race of the planet, with the potential of a major nuclear war erupting, either by accident or by design.
In racial relations in which the dominant white population is in a historical confrontation with the people of colour who are fed up with the exploitation and the brutality of the dominating economic and political forces.
In economics, where the widening gap between the haves and the have-nots reached a historical level, people are fed up with being squeezed to the point of desperation.
In religion, where the fanaticism of fundamentalist religions is strangling and brutalizing the skeptical masses.
In science where the brainwashed masses increasingly doubt and reject solid scientific theories, trying to save their lives, but rushing to see the nearest doctor at the first sign of trouble.
In technology where the complexity of our systems in electronics, computer software, AI, finance, medicine, agriculture, biology and communication has reached the level where no human being can control it any more (see plane crashes due to 'software glitch').
Have I missed anything? If I have, please let me know.
If we are, then we have two choices: Either we make the necessary changes to behave rationally, to assure our survival, or we go down with our inability to adapt, and become extinct as a species.
So, are we near one in world history?
It seems like that, at least to this alarmist of human behavior.
Let’s look at the possible tipping points.
In climate change we are rapidly approaching the point of no return, after which the runaway climate conditions make it impossible for humans to mitigate or to adapt.
In the pandemic: Since human beings can’t change their behavior patterns sufficiently to prevent exponential acceleration of the disease, we are facing a massive, world-wide death toll.
In word politics, where the USA, Russia and China are on a collision course to start the next arms race of the planet, with the potential of a major nuclear war erupting, either by accident or by design.
In racial relations in which the dominant white population is in a historical confrontation with the people of colour who are fed up with the exploitation and the brutality of the dominating economic and political forces.
In economics, where the widening gap between the haves and the have-nots reached a historical level, people are fed up with being squeezed to the point of desperation.
In religion, where the fanaticism of fundamentalist religions is strangling and brutalizing the skeptical masses.
In science where the brainwashed masses increasingly doubt and reject solid scientific theories, trying to save their lives, but rushing to see the nearest doctor at the first sign of trouble.
In technology where the complexity of our systems in electronics, computer software, AI, finance, medicine, agriculture, biology and communication has reached the level where no human being can control it any more (see plane crashes due to 'software glitch').
Have I missed anything? If I have, please let me know.
June 20, 2020
Is human stupidity a bottomless pit?
Don’t try to answer the question, it is an unanswerable one. How do you measure stupidity? And, even if you could, for every one that qualifies for that description, you’ll find another human who is highly intelligent. It’s the same Bell curve we have had to deal with all through our evolutionary history.
So why did I start this blog? Answer: I was watching the news (again) about Trump’s first rally that is to take place today, in Tulsa, Oklahoma, where the COVID-19 infection rate just jumped by 150% from one week to the next. Reporters interviewed many of the thousands gathered around the venue, without mask (“if you wear one it means you hate Trump”) and had to listen to them saying that the pandemic is only fake news, that they trust Trump telling them it is OK, in spite of every one of them required to sign a waiver, just in case they get sick, that they would rather die than wear a mask. Six staffers of the Trump organizing committee have already tested positive and, to make things worse, the event will be held indoors, with close to 19,000 people crowded in close proximity. If I were cynical (which I am not) and a Trump antagonist (which I am) then I would wish for as many of his followers to catch the virus, just so they might learn a lesson. However, stupidity is not a crime punishable by death, so I hope that most will get away with it. All medical experts interviewed are horrified by the prospect of a mass outbreak after the rally but, as Dr. Pouci recently said: there is a strong anti-science sentiment in America. Still, I am sure that in spite of that, when they get sick they’ll see a doctor and go to a hospital, hoping that science will cure them.
I can almost understand climate change deniers, because it is not an imminent danger for most citizens (only to their children) but it is not as highly visible and as demonstrably threatening as COVID-19 is. What is the current virus-related death toll in the USA? 115,000 to date, expected to rise to 300,000 by the end of summer.
Apart from the bottomless pit metaphor, I see no other explanation.
So why did I start this blog? Answer: I was watching the news (again) about Trump’s first rally that is to take place today, in Tulsa, Oklahoma, where the COVID-19 infection rate just jumped by 150% from one week to the next. Reporters interviewed many of the thousands gathered around the venue, without mask (“if you wear one it means you hate Trump”) and had to listen to them saying that the pandemic is only fake news, that they trust Trump telling them it is OK, in spite of every one of them required to sign a waiver, just in case they get sick, that they would rather die than wear a mask. Six staffers of the Trump organizing committee have already tested positive and, to make things worse, the event will be held indoors, with close to 19,000 people crowded in close proximity. If I were cynical (which I am not) and a Trump antagonist (which I am) then I would wish for as many of his followers to catch the virus, just so they might learn a lesson. However, stupidity is not a crime punishable by death, so I hope that most will get away with it. All medical experts interviewed are horrified by the prospect of a mass outbreak after the rally but, as Dr. Pouci recently said: there is a strong anti-science sentiment in America. Still, I am sure that in spite of that, when they get sick they’ll see a doctor and go to a hospital, hoping that science will cure them.
I can almost understand climate change deniers, because it is not an imminent danger for most citizens (only to their children) but it is not as highly visible and as demonstrably threatening as COVID-19 is. What is the current virus-related death toll in the USA? 115,000 to date, expected to rise to 300,000 by the end of summer.
Apart from the bottomless pit metaphor, I see no other explanation.
June 2, 2020
Let’s see, God Almighty, what we can accomplish together!
There is a Hungarian folk story about a farmer whose crop was partly destroyed by hail. This farmer goes out to his still standing crops and sets it on fire, shouting at the sky: “let’s see, God Almighty, what we can accomplish together!”
The current insanity unfolding in the United States reminded me of this tale. It is not enough that they are dying from the virus by the hundreds of thousands (just wait for the next milestone) and their economy is in ruin, now they have to set their cities ablaze with racial violence. And their leader, instead of acknowledging the horrible injustice against the victims of systematic racism, is threatening to bring in the army against his own people and has peaceful protesters tear gassed by the police so he can walk to the church, with bible in hand, for a photo opp.
I hope all the decent, intelligent Americans will remember this at election time. Don’t reelect and already impeached president who, in his first year in office, did more damage to the environment, to democracy and to social justice than any previous Republican had in two terms.
The current insanity unfolding in the United States reminded me of this tale. It is not enough that they are dying from the virus by the hundreds of thousands (just wait for the next milestone) and their economy is in ruin, now they have to set their cities ablaze with racial violence. And their leader, instead of acknowledging the horrible injustice against the victims of systematic racism, is threatening to bring in the army against his own people and has peaceful protesters tear gassed by the police so he can walk to the church, with bible in hand, for a photo opp.
I hope all the decent, intelligent Americans will remember this at election time. Don’t reelect and already impeached president who, in his first year in office, did more damage to the environment, to democracy and to social justice than any previous Republican had in two terms.
May 28, 2020
What I find ironic about the pandemic
I’ve had this itching sensation in my irreverent funny bone for days to say something that I have not said yet about the current crisis. I find it ironic to watch the human species, the dominant lifeform on the planet, squirm and cower in the face of an invisible alien invader, infiltrating our planet from the biosphere.
We, all-powerful humans, who are steadily, nay increasingly, wipe out one lifeform after another, drown the oceans in plastic garbage, poison the air, the soil and everything else all living things need for survival, seem helpless in the face of this microscopic lump of protein.
We attack the virus with a haphazard patchwork of rules and regulations, mostly ignored by the general public, fighting each other as much as fighting the virus, and ignoring the fact the virus doesn’t care about our borders, our political convictions, our desires to go back to ‘normal’ – it just marches through our world following its own logic.
The world of humans is also following its own logic, which is twisted, illogical, full of passion, fear and blind ambition. In this epic battle, often represented by science versus politics, the virus has nothing to lose. We, on the other hand, may just have made our first steps toward real and inevitable extinction. If that happens, I can hear the collective sigh of the planet and all the other lifeforms currently being squeezed out of existence by a species that developed too much power before it developed enough sense.
We, all-powerful humans, who are steadily, nay increasingly, wipe out one lifeform after another, drown the oceans in plastic garbage, poison the air, the soil and everything else all living things need for survival, seem helpless in the face of this microscopic lump of protein.
We attack the virus with a haphazard patchwork of rules and regulations, mostly ignored by the general public, fighting each other as much as fighting the virus, and ignoring the fact the virus doesn’t care about our borders, our political convictions, our desires to go back to ‘normal’ – it just marches through our world following its own logic.
The world of humans is also following its own logic, which is twisted, illogical, full of passion, fear and blind ambition. In this epic battle, often represented by science versus politics, the virus has nothing to lose. We, on the other hand, may just have made our first steps toward real and inevitable extinction. If that happens, I can hear the collective sigh of the planet and all the other lifeforms currently being squeezed out of existence by a species that developed too much power before it developed enough sense.
May 17, 2020
‘Crisis’ in the real world and ‘crisis’ in Capitalism.
These days you can’t watch the news without being bombarded by news of one crisis or another. Only one real crisis is ever mentioned: the health crisis that is represented by the Pandemic of a particularly nasty virus. The rest of the crises, that was made visible to anyone not already blind and brain dead, have to do with our Capitalist system.
Human beings need clean water, food, shelter, clothing, heating, education, health care, transportation and communication. None of these items were affected by the virus, they are still mostly available. ‘Essential’ workers are still producing all that people need.
What the virus affected was the ability of a large segment of the population to pay for these things because the millions of non-essential workers are now unemployed and don’t have the money to buy them. So people all over the Capitalist world are deprived of their ability to access what they need, even though what they need still exists in the real world. So many people go hungry and thrown out of their homes because the Capitalist system demands that no one without money could be fed, housed, cured when sick and have their children properly cared for.
The Capitalist system is based on the age-old domination strategy, employed by the strong and ruthless to exploit the masses for their own insatiable greed and obsession with power.
And, dear reader, if you are tempted to call me a Communist, you are totally wrong. I have seen so called Communist systems first hand, close up, and know exactly how they look in practice. What I am suggesting is clearly demonstrated by my second novel: “Saved in Time”:
“The novel has two important messages for the reader. The more obvious one is the suggestion that in our current geopolitical reality resurgence of totalitarian fascism is a real possibility.
The other, more subtle message is: A stable, sustainable social organization can not be based on any hierarchical, domination-structure such as have ever been tried in documented human history – they are all inherently self destructive. Any working social organization must be a consensus-based anarchy (as described in the Atlantis chapters) and, for that to be possible, we have to deal with our species-wide genetic brain disorder that drives individuals toward an ultimately suicidal and self destructive domination strategy. If humanity manages to weed these individuals out by education and constant vigilance, the human species may have a chance to avoid extinction.”
Human beings need clean water, food, shelter, clothing, heating, education, health care, transportation and communication. None of these items were affected by the virus, they are still mostly available. ‘Essential’ workers are still producing all that people need.
What the virus affected was the ability of a large segment of the population to pay for these things because the millions of non-essential workers are now unemployed and don’t have the money to buy them. So people all over the Capitalist world are deprived of their ability to access what they need, even though what they need still exists in the real world. So many people go hungry and thrown out of their homes because the Capitalist system demands that no one without money could be fed, housed, cured when sick and have their children properly cared for.
The Capitalist system is based on the age-old domination strategy, employed by the strong and ruthless to exploit the masses for their own insatiable greed and obsession with power.
And, dear reader, if you are tempted to call me a Communist, you are totally wrong. I have seen so called Communist systems first hand, close up, and know exactly how they look in practice. What I am suggesting is clearly demonstrated by my second novel: “Saved in Time”:
“The novel has two important messages for the reader. The more obvious one is the suggestion that in our current geopolitical reality resurgence of totalitarian fascism is a real possibility.
The other, more subtle message is: A stable, sustainable social organization can not be based on any hierarchical, domination-structure such as have ever been tried in documented human history – they are all inherently self destructive. Any working social organization must be a consensus-based anarchy (as described in the Atlantis chapters) and, for that to be possible, we have to deal with our species-wide genetic brain disorder that drives individuals toward an ultimately suicidal and self destructive domination strategy. If humanity manages to weed these individuals out by education and constant vigilance, the human species may have a chance to avoid extinction.”
May 10, 2020
‘Whack-a mole’ humanity won’t survive much longer.
Everyone is familiar with an arcade game in which players use a mallet to hit toy moles, which appear at random, back into their holes. That’s what the human species looks like now, during this age of multiple crises popping up everywhere, totally overwhelming the existing mechanisms we have had for coping. Pandemic, climate change, overpopulation, diminishing resources, species extinction, murder hornets, it is a very long list. Our ‘leaders’ try to react to each new set of problems, within each new crises, by blindly reacting, without any long term strategy of survival. It is out of control now and no one has any idea of what tomorrow (or day after, god forgive me for thinking that far ahead) will look like.
As an example, look at the economic crises: millions and millions out of a job, barely surviving on piecemeal, haphazard government assistance, with many more who fell between the cracks and are facing hunger and eviction. Instead of one guaranteed basic income that would cover the fundamental needs of every citizen above a minimal level. It is a bureaucratic nightmare of trying to manage dozens of overlapping assistance programs, each with its criteria of eligibility. Our leaders have not yet accepted the KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) principle. However, sooner rather than later, they will have to when they get completely swamped and overwhelmed with the tsunami of multiple crises crashing over their heads. Wouldn’t it be simpler to think ahead and plan, rather than blindly react?
As an example, look at the economic crises: millions and millions out of a job, barely surviving on piecemeal, haphazard government assistance, with many more who fell between the cracks and are facing hunger and eviction. Instead of one guaranteed basic income that would cover the fundamental needs of every citizen above a minimal level. It is a bureaucratic nightmare of trying to manage dozens of overlapping assistance programs, each with its criteria of eligibility. Our leaders have not yet accepted the KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) principle. However, sooner rather than later, they will have to when they get completely swamped and overwhelmed with the tsunami of multiple crises crashing over their heads. Wouldn’t it be simpler to think ahead and plan, rather than blindly react?
May 5, 2020
The Planet of the Humans
I have just finished watching the Michael Moore documentary and I am still in shock. Before looking at it, I have scanned some of the criticisms accusing Moore of inaccuracies, contradictions, misleading claims, so I decided to watch it with the sound turned off. I wanted to make up my mind based on the images the documentary was going to show me.
My conclusion: we live on a royally fucked up planet. Simple if a little bit crude. When I watched it again, with the sound turned back up again, three comments made by one of the people interviewed summed it up for me.
- Unless we give up our obsession with infinite growth on a finite planet;
- bring our exploding population under control and
- drastically reduce our consumption, we are screwed.
I couldn't disagree with any of these three. I have to add one of my own: The only solution I see for the energy crisis is to abandon our religious beliefs in BIG solutions and BIG technology and change our emphasis on small and distributed solutions. It's BIG that got us into trouble in the first place and only small can dig us out of it.
"Small is Beautiful" as the title of E. F. Schumacher's book published in 1973 tried to tell us - so far in vain.
My conclusion: we live on a royally fucked up planet. Simple if a little bit crude. When I watched it again, with the sound turned back up again, three comments made by one of the people interviewed summed it up for me.
- Unless we give up our obsession with infinite growth on a finite planet;
- bring our exploding population under control and
- drastically reduce our consumption, we are screwed.
I couldn't disagree with any of these three. I have to add one of my own: The only solution I see for the energy crisis is to abandon our religious beliefs in BIG solutions and BIG technology and change our emphasis on small and distributed solutions. It's BIG that got us into trouble in the first place and only small can dig us out of it.
"Small is Beautiful" as the title of E. F. Schumacher's book published in 1973 tried to tell us - so far in vain.
April 30, 2020
Simple solutions to complex problems.
A friend of my called it (quoting from someone else) ‘Trumpism’. And the moniker is appropriate: Donald Trump’s solution to “make America great again” is a very simple, dare I say ‘simplistic’ solution. Bring jobs back from third world countries, buy only American products, avoid costly wars, drink disinfectant to cure Covid-19.
Problem with ‘simplistic’ solutions is that most of them, most of the time, are based on erroneous assumptions. What if jobs were mostly destroyed by automation? What if Americans don’t want to do all the dirty, soul-killing jobs of the coal mines and blast furnaces? What if Americans do not want to buy American made products because others can be cheaper and so much better? What if costly foreign wars are loved by the military-industrial-complex that support your political ambition? What if drinking Lysol would kill us?
And then there is the problem with the long term goal. Beyond the next election? Scientists know that phrasing the question in the proper terms have a profound effect on finding the correct answer. The conflict, as usual, is between short term individual interests and long term social interest.
Finding solutions for short term personal interest can be hellishly complicated, while long term societal interest can be stated usually in very simple terms. However, nobody anymore think about long term societal interests. Science fiction writers have been doing it for centuries but nobody listens to them anymore, if anyone ever did.
Long term societal interests can be stated in very simple terms: Don’t cut off the branch you are sitting on.
It’s that simple.
Problem with ‘simplistic’ solutions is that most of them, most of the time, are based on erroneous assumptions. What if jobs were mostly destroyed by automation? What if Americans don’t want to do all the dirty, soul-killing jobs of the coal mines and blast furnaces? What if Americans do not want to buy American made products because others can be cheaper and so much better? What if costly foreign wars are loved by the military-industrial-complex that support your political ambition? What if drinking Lysol would kill us?
And then there is the problem with the long term goal. Beyond the next election? Scientists know that phrasing the question in the proper terms have a profound effect on finding the correct answer. The conflict, as usual, is between short term individual interests and long term social interest.
Finding solutions for short term personal interest can be hellishly complicated, while long term societal interest can be stated usually in very simple terms. However, nobody anymore think about long term societal interests. Science fiction writers have been doing it for centuries but nobody listens to them anymore, if anyone ever did.
Long term societal interests can be stated in very simple terms: Don’t cut off the branch you are sitting on.
It’s that simple.
April 27, 2020
The cause-and-effect chains
Scientists know very well about the cause-and-effect chain. Discounting quantum randomness in the macro world of human beings, nothing happens without something(s) happening first that contributed to the event in question happening. Medical professionals know it too and they always try to locate the original cause of the illness, instead of just trying to suppress the symptoms. So why don’t politicians, journalists, public servants and the police do that?
Some of you may have heard of the horrific mass shooting that happened in a Canadian Province – Nova Scotia – that ended up killing a police officer and 22 innocent people in their homes. The news item that prompted this tirade was the announcement that a petition was signed by many people to change the name of the local high school to ‘honour’ the memory of this police officer.
I would have been so much happier if they announced a task force made up of doctors, psychologists, criminal lawyers and other experts to investigate why and how this man, the killer, went crazy to commit these acts. He wasn’t born to be a mass murderer. No one in his sane mind would look at a newborn baby and say: “this boy will be a mass murderer”.
There was a cause and I am sure there were many, many, contributing factors of how he was treated growing up, how his parents were treated growing up, how our modern industrial, money based, predatory, super consumerist Capitalist system contributed to driving this man crazy.
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out how dehumanizing, alienating, mercilessly degrading our system can be to the most vulnerable of us. The answer is clear, but the solution will forever evade us. As I said in one of my 22 Tweets I have ever made: “Solution to mankind’s problems are simple an obvious. They remain unsolved because those who have the power to solve them don’t want to.”
Some of you may have heard of the horrific mass shooting that happened in a Canadian Province – Nova Scotia – that ended up killing a police officer and 22 innocent people in their homes. The news item that prompted this tirade was the announcement that a petition was signed by many people to change the name of the local high school to ‘honour’ the memory of this police officer.
I would have been so much happier if they announced a task force made up of doctors, psychologists, criminal lawyers and other experts to investigate why and how this man, the killer, went crazy to commit these acts. He wasn’t born to be a mass murderer. No one in his sane mind would look at a newborn baby and say: “this boy will be a mass murderer”.
There was a cause and I am sure there were many, many, contributing factors of how he was treated growing up, how his parents were treated growing up, how our modern industrial, money based, predatory, super consumerist Capitalist system contributed to driving this man crazy.
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out how dehumanizing, alienating, mercilessly degrading our system can be to the most vulnerable of us. The answer is clear, but the solution will forever evade us. As I said in one of my 22 Tweets I have ever made: “Solution to mankind’s problems are simple an obvious. They remain unsolved because those who have the power to solve them don’t want to.”
April 23, 2020
About 'reopening the economy'
I have been hearing a lot of loose talk, from politicians, about ‘reopening the economy’. I am a bit confused about this because at the same time the doctors, experts and specialists are all saying that we can’t do it safely until we have increased our testing capacity tenfold or better. My confusion comes from not understanding the ‘urgent’ need to abandon a strategy that’s working. The strategy is very simple and is based on the even simpler fact that the viruses don’t have legs or wings, they need us to move them around so they can infect more people. So the solution is very simple: don’t provide them with transportation and stay away from each other until the viruses die out. True, staying away from my fellow human beings has never been a hardship for me, but I understand it is hard on more social people than I am. However, I am sure even those more social do not wish to die of a nasty disease and should be able to put up with communication via phone and computers until the crises is over.
So what’s the urgency?
As usual, it has to do with that artificially created medium people call money. People lost their jobs, their income and need to survive on limited government assistance.
What if we forget about the money for the duration of this crises (or forever as far as I am concerned). If people need to think inside the box of money, then print as much as people need to secure their essential products and services. The ‘essential’ part of the economy does not need to be reopened, because it never closed. Businesses and workers (called 'frontline') providing all essential services and products are still functioning, providing the same amount of everything needed as before. So what’s the emergency? The rest of the businesses, not providing essential products and services, just can stay closed and their workers can enjoy an extended vacation. Use that time to learn new skills, retrain for a more rewarding occupation (plenty of online education), read books, play video games, socialize over the internet or the telephone. It wouldn’t kill them and might save their lives by staying home and not get infected.
Of course, the profit margin has dropped for banks, money lenders, financial speculators, investors, landlords and owners of the non-essential businesses, but they should be able to live with it for a while longer. After all, isn't Capitalism about self reliance, without bailout by taxpayers?
So what’s the urgency?
As usual, it has to do with that artificially created medium people call money. People lost their jobs, their income and need to survive on limited government assistance.
What if we forget about the money for the duration of this crises (or forever as far as I am concerned). If people need to think inside the box of money, then print as much as people need to secure their essential products and services. The ‘essential’ part of the economy does not need to be reopened, because it never closed. Businesses and workers (called 'frontline') providing all essential services and products are still functioning, providing the same amount of everything needed as before. So what’s the emergency? The rest of the businesses, not providing essential products and services, just can stay closed and their workers can enjoy an extended vacation. Use that time to learn new skills, retrain for a more rewarding occupation (plenty of online education), read books, play video games, socialize over the internet or the telephone. It wouldn’t kill them and might save their lives by staying home and not get infected.
Of course, the profit margin has dropped for banks, money lenders, financial speculators, investors, landlords and owners of the non-essential businesses, but they should be able to live with it for a while longer. After all, isn't Capitalism about self reliance, without bailout by taxpayers?
