Shelley Lee Riley's Blog: https://shelleyleeriley.com/my-thoughts/, page 6
May 15, 2014
Thoughts on 139th Preakness Stakes
May 15, 2014
Dear Readers,
The draw for post position is complete and the ten horse field is set for the 139th running of the Preakness Stakes. When there is a prohibitive favorite in a race, I pride myself on looking for the possible amidst the improbable. Today as I peruse each horse, I realize unlikely is the word I keep repeating.
I can’t pick a horse to win this race, save one—California Chrome. But it is a horse race and in the face of certainty, lies roughly ten-thousand pounds of horse flesh, each with a mind of his own. There-in lies the uncertainty and that uncertainty is the fodder pundits live for.
I won’t repeat accolades that have already been extolled ad nauseam from too many keyboards, printed columns and media broadcasts. How many ways can you say California Chrome is fantastic? Since I already have, I will not spend time on a laudatory elucidation extolling all the reasons he is such a nice horse.
So who can run second and third or even win?
1. Dynamic Impact – Ran full out and gamely in the Illinois Derby. Dynamic Impact comes into this race with tactical speed and a willingness to lay off the front runner. Unlikely.
2. General A Rod – He was never in position to make an impact in the boxing match that was this year’s running of the Kentucky Derby. I think this horse will be a lot closer to the front end in this race and he should have no trouble with the tight turns. Nevertheless, Unlikely.
3. California Chrome – Needs to break well and hopefully he’s sound. I’m a fan.
4. Ring Weekend – Looked pretty green in his last race, over correcting at the head of the stretch. The race before, in which he won, he was also sensitive to guidance by the jockey. Should improve. Unlikely.
5. Bayern – Didn’t have enough points to get into the Derby, and this may turn out to have been a blessing for him. He’s got speed, lots of it. I don’t see Baffert sending his horse out for a suicidal duel on the front end and he did take the blinkers off. We’ll see if this horse can be rated; because I think that will be the plan. Very interesting.
6. Ria Antonia – There is no doubt this is a nice filly, but for me this is not the type of filly that can out run colts of this quality. Unlikely.
7. Kid Cruz– I don’t think I would survive if I owned this horse. Dead last by twenty-five and then he wins? Wow Silky Sullivan reincarnate? You know if there’s a real speed duel on the front end of this race…..hmmm. But… and that is a big but, in the other races Kid Cruz won, the frontend fractions were ridiculously slow. Interesting.
8. Social Inclusion – This is probably the biggest question mark for me in this race. Clearly an impressive colt, and with only two races under his girth, he takes on the likes of the Grade I Wood Memorial field. In the far outside at the start, his rider asked him straight away to get some position going into the first turn. The colt gets hung out and now that he’s up in the bit, he refused to come back. Head and head he raced around there and opened up down the lane, only to tire in the final eighth of a mile. Huge third place finish against a stellar field, and in a race where he didn’t have the best of racing luck. Very Interesting.
9. Pablo Del Monte – Another nice horse, but he needs to learn how to win. Unlikely.
10. Ride On Curlin – This horse is almost always in some kind of trouble. But in the end, with only a few exceptions, he makes his presence known. He’s got technical speed and I would argue he runs well when they use it. Still I can’t get behind this horse. Unlikely.
That brings us to the big reveal….
1st California Chrome – Because, even as good as he is, we don’t know how good he’s going to get, and also because I’m a fan. I know he has a few issues, starting gate as number one of those, but I want to see him win. I want the thrill when he surges to the front and I'm reminded what it feels like to see a prohibitive favorite fulfill their promise.
2nd Social Inclusion – I like that he's fresh coming into this race. I think this colt is definitely one to watch in the fall and in the races leading up to the Breeder’s Cup.
3rd Bayern – Locked and loaded. Baffert is canny and wily, he’s got a plan.
4th Kid Cruz – I’m afraid to bet a two dollar combination ticket on this horse, my heart might give out.
I can’t wait for Saturday. What a thrill.
Take Care,
Shelley Riley author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventurewww.shelleyriley.com
Dear Readers,
The draw for post position is complete and the ten horse field is set for the 139th running of the Preakness Stakes. When there is a prohibitive favorite in a race, I pride myself on looking for the possible amidst the improbable. Today as I peruse each horse, I realize unlikely is the word I keep repeating.
I can’t pick a horse to win this race, save one—California Chrome. But it is a horse race and in the face of certainty, lies roughly ten-thousand pounds of horse flesh, each with a mind of his own. There-in lies the uncertainty and that uncertainty is the fodder pundits live for.
I won’t repeat accolades that have already been extolled ad nauseam from too many keyboards, printed columns and media broadcasts. How many ways can you say California Chrome is fantastic? Since I already have, I will not spend time on a laudatory elucidation extolling all the reasons he is such a nice horse.
So who can run second and third or even win?
1. Dynamic Impact – Ran full out and gamely in the Illinois Derby. Dynamic Impact comes into this race with tactical speed and a willingness to lay off the front runner. Unlikely.
2. General A Rod – He was never in position to make an impact in the boxing match that was this year’s running of the Kentucky Derby. I think this horse will be a lot closer to the front end in this race and he should have no trouble with the tight turns. Nevertheless, Unlikely.
3. California Chrome – Needs to break well and hopefully he’s sound. I’m a fan.
4. Ring Weekend – Looked pretty green in his last race, over correcting at the head of the stretch. The race before, in which he won, he was also sensitive to guidance by the jockey. Should improve. Unlikely.
5. Bayern – Didn’t have enough points to get into the Derby, and this may turn out to have been a blessing for him. He’s got speed, lots of it. I don’t see Baffert sending his horse out for a suicidal duel on the front end and he did take the blinkers off. We’ll see if this horse can be rated; because I think that will be the plan. Very interesting.
6. Ria Antonia – There is no doubt this is a nice filly, but for me this is not the type of filly that can out run colts of this quality. Unlikely.
7. Kid Cruz– I don’t think I would survive if I owned this horse. Dead last by twenty-five and then he wins? Wow Silky Sullivan reincarnate? You know if there’s a real speed duel on the front end of this race…..hmmm. But… and that is a big but, in the other races Kid Cruz won, the frontend fractions were ridiculously slow. Interesting.
8. Social Inclusion – This is probably the biggest question mark for me in this race. Clearly an impressive colt, and with only two races under his girth, he takes on the likes of the Grade I Wood Memorial field. In the far outside at the start, his rider asked him straight away to get some position going into the first turn. The colt gets hung out and now that he’s up in the bit, he refused to come back. Head and head he raced around there and opened up down the lane, only to tire in the final eighth of a mile. Huge third place finish against a stellar field, and in a race where he didn’t have the best of racing luck. Very Interesting.
9. Pablo Del Monte – Another nice horse, but he needs to learn how to win. Unlikely.
10. Ride On Curlin – This horse is almost always in some kind of trouble. But in the end, with only a few exceptions, he makes his presence known. He’s got technical speed and I would argue he runs well when they use it. Still I can’t get behind this horse. Unlikely.
That brings us to the big reveal….
1st California Chrome – Because, even as good as he is, we don’t know how good he’s going to get, and also because I’m a fan. I know he has a few issues, starting gate as number one of those, but I want to see him win. I want the thrill when he surges to the front and I'm reminded what it feels like to see a prohibitive favorite fulfill their promise.
2nd Social Inclusion – I like that he's fresh coming into this race. I think this colt is definitely one to watch in the fall and in the races leading up to the Breeder’s Cup.
3rd Bayern – Locked and loaded. Baffert is canny and wily, he’s got a plan.
4th Kid Cruz – I’m afraid to bet a two dollar combination ticket on this horse, my heart might give out.
I can’t wait for Saturday. What a thrill.
Take Care,
Shelley Riley author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventurewww.shelleyriley.com
May 14, 2014
Review by Daily Racing Form's Mary Simon
May 14, 2014
Dear Readers,
The Preakness is upon us, but not quite. I'll be taking a look at the entries once the official draw is over and the post positions of all the participants are assigned.
Meanwhile, I was thrilled to find Mary Simon, of the Daily Racing Form, had read my book and written a review which was posted earlier today.
Here is the link, http://www.drf.com/news/book-review-triple-crown-reads-capture-spirit-season To have an Eclipse Award winning writer do this, is not only flattering but satisfying. I am both grateful and thankful to her for taking the time to read a self-published book.
Writing, particularly a memoir, is an isolating process. While delving back into memories, depending on the circumstances, the chronicler can find themselves caught up on a bumpy and emotional adventure. Recollections can bring with them a broad spectrum of emotions. Tears of joy, or wonder and even regret flow more easily with each page that is written.
As the tears pass and the wonder builds, there is a cathartic metamorphosis that takes the writer to the place where they realize and appreciate, how blessed they were to have lived through the experience.
For one-hundred days after my sister’s bone marrow transplant, I was her primary care giver as she struggled to live. It was both heartbreaking and stressful. Only years after her death did I realize how blessed I’d been to have those days with her.
One-hundred days, just her and me together as we fought a common enemy. I had one-hundred days with her, and where we dreamed of a future in which she had a disease-free future. Instead of a call in the night, or a knock on the door, I had one-hundred days to say goodbye.
In writing about Casual Lies, I give the readers a peek behind the NBC cameras and a chance to read words never spoken. Once again, as the pages filled with words, I found myself at that same point of metamorphosis. Disappointment, heartbreak, and the stressful faded into the background while the wonder and joy came to the forefront. Stanley never watched a telecast, nor did he read a news story, people weren’t there to hurt him, they were there to entertain. I’ll never forget those bright inquisitive eyes.
I will post my thoughts tomorrow on the Preakness Stakes. But boy howdy, it sure does look good for the pretty chestnut.
Take care,
Shelley Riley author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventurewww.shelleyriley.com
Dear Readers,
The Preakness is upon us, but not quite. I'll be taking a look at the entries once the official draw is over and the post positions of all the participants are assigned.
Meanwhile, I was thrilled to find Mary Simon, of the Daily Racing Form, had read my book and written a review which was posted earlier today.
Here is the link, http://www.drf.com/news/book-review-triple-crown-reads-capture-spirit-season To have an Eclipse Award winning writer do this, is not only flattering but satisfying. I am both grateful and thankful to her for taking the time to read a self-published book.
Writing, particularly a memoir, is an isolating process. While delving back into memories, depending on the circumstances, the chronicler can find themselves caught up on a bumpy and emotional adventure. Recollections can bring with them a broad spectrum of emotions. Tears of joy, or wonder and even regret flow more easily with each page that is written.
As the tears pass and the wonder builds, there is a cathartic metamorphosis that takes the writer to the place where they realize and appreciate, how blessed they were to have lived through the experience.
For one-hundred days after my sister’s bone marrow transplant, I was her primary care giver as she struggled to live. It was both heartbreaking and stressful. Only years after her death did I realize how blessed I’d been to have those days with her.
One-hundred days, just her and me together as we fought a common enemy. I had one-hundred days with her, and where we dreamed of a future in which she had a disease-free future. Instead of a call in the night, or a knock on the door, I had one-hundred days to say goodbye.
In writing about Casual Lies, I give the readers a peek behind the NBC cameras and a chance to read words never spoken. Once again, as the pages filled with words, I found myself at that same point of metamorphosis. Disappointment, heartbreak, and the stressful faded into the background while the wonder and joy came to the forefront. Stanley never watched a telecast, nor did he read a news story, people weren’t there to hurt him, they were there to entertain. I’ll never forget those bright inquisitive eyes.
I will post my thoughts tomorrow on the Preakness Stakes. But boy howdy, it sure does look good for the pretty chestnut.
Take care,
Shelley Riley author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventurewww.shelleyriley.com
May 5, 2014
Choice and Experimental Drugs
May 5, 2014
Dear Readers,
When my sister was dying of Cleaved Cell Lymphocytic Leukemia, every night I told her I loved her, because there was no certainty that she would be alive the next morning when I awoke.
Each day she lived was not only a milestone, but another day closer to the eventual cure that we all knew was coming. But the eventual cure did not come fast enough for Carol, and despite a bone marrow transplant, the disease had taken too much and left too little for my sister to survive.
Ten years have come and gone since my sister lost her hard fought battle with cancer. Not one day goes by, that I don’t take the time to pause, to recall and to embrace the memories of the joy that my sister brought into my life.
As children, we fought. As adults, we talked, we laughed and we loved each other. Carol was a waitress and the resort she worked at closed late at night. Each morning I counted the minutes down to nine a.m. at which point I could call her or she’d call me. Over coffee we would catch up, talk about the day ahead, her kids, my horses or a new recipe. For a time we had the bread machine war, where we exchanged the latest and most outrageous bread ingredient we could or would use to make what we hoped would be a remarkable loaf of bread. My favorite? Red bell pepper bread. Yum.
I can still picture her settled into her small Bergere chair, the springs shot and the webbing lax, with a cup of coffee in one hand and a cookbook open in her lap. Oregon’s snow covered Three Sisters Mountains silhouetted in the glass panes of the three-piece doors that opened onto the deck behind her.
The sun would find Carol’s blond curls through the glass and set a golden halo to glow around her head. With her yellow canary singing in the background, she would consider and discard recipes until one struck her fancy, something new, something delicious. Carol’s kitchen always smelled wonderful.
My sister fought hard for life, she never gave up, and she would have tried anything to see her grandchildren grow to adulthood. Right up to the moments after they unplugged the machines, Carol had steadfastly believed she was going to beat the disease.
Carol looked into her husband’s eyes, and he told her how pretty she was as he combed her hair and ran a touch of lipstick across her lips. Slowly her beautiful cornflower blue eyes closed for the last time and Carol left us.
I write this as yet another report comes out of a legislator’s attempt to get a bill passed that would allow terminal patients, who have not responded to other treatments, access to experimental drugs—promising drugs which are undergoing clinical trials and awaiting final FDA approval.
Why not? As long as there is a confirmed consent form from the patient. They’re terminal, what is more final than that diagnosis?
They say, “It would give false hope.”
I say, “They are terminal, what hope?”
They say, “Using these drugs could shorten their life.”
I say, “And…?”
I know it is a very complicated subject. I get it. But I also say, when there is nothing left to try and hope is exhausted, let the terminally ill, where capable, make their own choices about what is right for them.
Two brothers with the same terminal disease, one in a clinical trial taking a experimental drug and who is now healthy. The other? Still dying. How can you not give him the drug? What must those people in that family be going through? I find it horrifying to contemplate.
My sister wouldn’t have wanted a freshman congressman, from the confines of Capitol Hill, deciding what her treatment of choice would be. Choice, isn’t that part of what made this country great?
HR4475 entitled “Expanded Access to Unapproved Therapies and Diagnostics,” is as everything our government addresses, over complicated and is intended to be added as an amendment to an already over complicated “Food, Drug and Cosmetics Act.”
I don’t have the answers. When I try to read these bills and acts, it makes my head itch. But what I do know, and it isn’t complicated, one brother lives while another dies for want of an unapproved experimental drug. That is not right.
Take care,
Shelley Riley author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure
www.shelleyriley.com
Dear Readers,
When my sister was dying of Cleaved Cell Lymphocytic Leukemia, every night I told her I loved her, because there was no certainty that she would be alive the next morning when I awoke.
Each day she lived was not only a milestone, but another day closer to the eventual cure that we all knew was coming. But the eventual cure did not come fast enough for Carol, and despite a bone marrow transplant, the disease had taken too much and left too little for my sister to survive.
Ten years have come and gone since my sister lost her hard fought battle with cancer. Not one day goes by, that I don’t take the time to pause, to recall and to embrace the memories of the joy that my sister brought into my life.
As children, we fought. As adults, we talked, we laughed and we loved each other. Carol was a waitress and the resort she worked at closed late at night. Each morning I counted the minutes down to nine a.m. at which point I could call her or she’d call me. Over coffee we would catch up, talk about the day ahead, her kids, my horses or a new recipe. For a time we had the bread machine war, where we exchanged the latest and most outrageous bread ingredient we could or would use to make what we hoped would be a remarkable loaf of bread. My favorite? Red bell pepper bread. Yum.
I can still picture her settled into her small Bergere chair, the springs shot and the webbing lax, with a cup of coffee in one hand and a cookbook open in her lap. Oregon’s snow covered Three Sisters Mountains silhouetted in the glass panes of the three-piece doors that opened onto the deck behind her.
The sun would find Carol’s blond curls through the glass and set a golden halo to glow around her head. With her yellow canary singing in the background, she would consider and discard recipes until one struck her fancy, something new, something delicious. Carol’s kitchen always smelled wonderful.
My sister fought hard for life, she never gave up, and she would have tried anything to see her grandchildren grow to adulthood. Right up to the moments after they unplugged the machines, Carol had steadfastly believed she was going to beat the disease.
Carol looked into her husband’s eyes, and he told her how pretty she was as he combed her hair and ran a touch of lipstick across her lips. Slowly her beautiful cornflower blue eyes closed for the last time and Carol left us.
I write this as yet another report comes out of a legislator’s attempt to get a bill passed that would allow terminal patients, who have not responded to other treatments, access to experimental drugs—promising drugs which are undergoing clinical trials and awaiting final FDA approval.
Why not? As long as there is a confirmed consent form from the patient. They’re terminal, what is more final than that diagnosis?
They say, “It would give false hope.”
I say, “They are terminal, what hope?”
They say, “Using these drugs could shorten their life.”
I say, “And…?”
I know it is a very complicated subject. I get it. But I also say, when there is nothing left to try and hope is exhausted, let the terminally ill, where capable, make their own choices about what is right for them.
Two brothers with the same terminal disease, one in a clinical trial taking a experimental drug and who is now healthy. The other? Still dying. How can you not give him the drug? What must those people in that family be going through? I find it horrifying to contemplate.
My sister wouldn’t have wanted a freshman congressman, from the confines of Capitol Hill, deciding what her treatment of choice would be. Choice, isn’t that part of what made this country great?
HR4475 entitled “Expanded Access to Unapproved Therapies and Diagnostics,” is as everything our government addresses, over complicated and is intended to be added as an amendment to an already over complicated “Food, Drug and Cosmetics Act.”
I don’t have the answers. When I try to read these bills and acts, it makes my head itch. But what I do know, and it isn’t complicated, one brother lives while another dies for want of an unapproved experimental drug. That is not right.
Take care,
Shelley Riley author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure
www.shelleyriley.com
May 4, 2014
California Chrome, Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown
May 4, 2014
Dear Readers,
The sound you hear is that of knuckles brushing across lapels all over California, as horse racing enthusiasts, pundits and fans congratulate themselves for backing California Chrome—even if they didn’t.
What a day, what a race, what a horse and oh yeah what a charming story. Two families, headed by two men, one loquacious, the other taciturn, take a chance and buy a mare for a mere pittance at auction. Armed with good humor they name the partnership “Dumbass Partners” in response to the immediate ridicule they’d garnered when the hammer fell that fateful day.
I’m sure when they signed the sales slip they weren’t thinking about the Kentucky Derby, but I would be willing to bet they were definitely thinking about breeding a runner.
California Chrome—a dream comes true, literally. Steve Coburn revealed to his wife before the foal was born that he’d dreamt it was a going to be a chestnut colt and this colt would win the Kentucky Derby.
Yikes…this story provides the type of fuel that keeps every Thoroughbred horse owner coming back for more. Over and over again, they dip into the well, only to come up with a bucket far from full. But the spring that fills that well is hope and hope is the lifeblood of the Thoroughbred industry. “Dumbass Partners” came away from the well with a bucket filled to the brim and overflowing.
California Chrome, just like my horse Casual Lies, exceeded the expectations of everybody except the people that mattered most, his owners, his trainer and his jockey. California Chrome’s connections, dreamed, believed and embraced the possibility.
Their dream continues, and I can’t wait to see what comes next.
Take care,Shelley Riley author of Casual Lies - A Triple Crown Adventurewww.shelleyriley.com
Dear Readers,
The sound you hear is that of knuckles brushing across lapels all over California, as horse racing enthusiasts, pundits and fans congratulate themselves for backing California Chrome—even if they didn’t.
What a day, what a race, what a horse and oh yeah what a charming story. Two families, headed by two men, one loquacious, the other taciturn, take a chance and buy a mare for a mere pittance at auction. Armed with good humor they name the partnership “Dumbass Partners” in response to the immediate ridicule they’d garnered when the hammer fell that fateful day.
I’m sure when they signed the sales slip they weren’t thinking about the Kentucky Derby, but I would be willing to bet they were definitely thinking about breeding a runner.
California Chrome—a dream comes true, literally. Steve Coburn revealed to his wife before the foal was born that he’d dreamt it was a going to be a chestnut colt and this colt would win the Kentucky Derby.
Yikes…this story provides the type of fuel that keeps every Thoroughbred horse owner coming back for more. Over and over again, they dip into the well, only to come up with a bucket far from full. But the spring that fills that well is hope and hope is the lifeblood of the Thoroughbred industry. “Dumbass Partners” came away from the well with a bucket filled to the brim and overflowing.
California Chrome, just like my horse Casual Lies, exceeded the expectations of everybody except the people that mattered most, his owners, his trainer and his jockey. California Chrome’s connections, dreamed, believed and embraced the possibility.
Their dream continues, and I can’t wait to see what comes next.
Take care,Shelley Riley author of Casual Lies - A Triple Crown Adventurewww.shelleyriley.com
May 2, 2014
A Look at the 140th Kentucky Derby Entrants
May 2, 2014
Dear Readers,
It’s time for me to take a look at the final twenty horses headed for the starting gate on May 3, 2014 in the 140th renewal of the Kentucky Derby.
First let’s talk about weather. The forecast for Saturday calls for occasional clouds and a delightful 73 degrees. So unless one or two of the horses prefer an off track, the surface shouldn’t be a problem for any of the participants.
Post position and the size of the field is always a problem. Loading that many horses seems like it takes forever, no matter how many seasoned gatemen they have on duty. If your horse is the first one in, the wait seems interminable. The gate is always a dangerous place when filled with fractious horses, and the longer they stand there the more likely it is something can go awry. I always held my breath until the horses where away and running in good order.
When you have two starting gates stuffed into a space designed to accommodate only one, the first couple of stalls are facing the inside rail, not the straightaway. So with the outside horses pushing for the rail and the inside horses trying not to run into it, things can get real interesting within the first couple of jumps away from the gate. The nice thing is the long straightaway at Churchill Downs and the jockeys are usually pretty careful not to get tangled up, even in the twenty horse cavalry charge right at the start.
Let’s begin with inside and work our way out.
1. VICAR’S IN TROUBLE: He’s got speed and stuck in the one hole, staring at the rail, it’s a good thing he does. Rosie will ask him to use this speed and barring an incident, he will be on the lead or close to it in the first furlong. As a Fairgrounds specialist, along with his front running style, this colt is being dismissed with current odds at 20-1. I think this is a mistake, while he wouldn’t be my first choice; he is far more of a contender than the odds would suggest.
2. HARRY’S HOLIDAY: Maybe I’m missing something, but 10-1 on the morning line seems a bit generous for this colt in this race. I can’t get too excited when I look through his past performances. Nice horse, no doubt, but not likely to be a threat. Now he’s 50-1 hmmm…
3. UNCLE SIGH: Sighing is exactly what I’m doing as I watch the Wood Memorial replay. What happened? He got left, and then he got bumped and then he got a whole lot of dirt in his face. He was jumping up and down heading into the back stretch, and it looked like he might have picked up the bit a couple of times and then he’d spit it out again. Once he was clear entering the stretch and the dirt wasn’t hitting him, this is when we see the colt, belatedly pick up the bit again and push forward. Those earlier races between Uncle Sigh and Samraat, wow, reminded me of those classic battles between Alydar and Affirmed. How about the Gotham, does a finish get any more exciting than that one? I don’t know what to do with this horse. One thing for sure, they’ll be asking him away from the gate, but it’s likely he’ll be getting a lot of dirt in his face. Even if we throw out the last race, he’s still going to have to improve several lengths to beat this bunch. 30-1 seems harsh though.
4. DANZA: I’m in love. This horse looked so good in the Arkansas Derby, he was completely relaxed while calmly stalking the speed, and when asked he squeezed through a tight spot on the rail and then just spanked a really tough field. All his previous races were just too short for him and it looked like Todd Pletcher used them simply as prep races for the longer distances. Masterfully played by his trainer, this colt is primed and ready. 8-1 ? Show me the money.
5. CALIFORNIA CHROME: I know, I’m expected to be head over heels in love with this horse. After all, I am a Californian and back in the day, Art and I even had a client in common. What’s not to like about this horse? He’s stunning, he has character and most importantly he wins. You know there’s a ‘but’ coming. While being thrilled by California Chrome’s huge leads coming up on the sixteenth pole, I’ve also been bothered by the way he pulls himself up. I get it; he’s so far in front, the jockey would look foolish if he kept asking him. But this horse doesn’t just go into cruise; he slows down so fast he looks like he’s throwing the brakes on. The finish wire at Churchill downs is farther down the stretch than the majority of racetracks. Does anyone remember Shoemaker and Gallant Man? Horses are creatures of habit, and trust me they know where the finish wire is. If California Chrome repeats what he did in the Santa Anita Derby, where he even switched his tail, he slowed so quickly, I’m afraid he’ll get caught. I would love to see a superhorse come out of California and I will be thrilled beyond words if he spanks this field like he has he has in the last three races. I’m just saying…and 5-2 sounds about right.
6. SAMRAAT: Five wins in six starts. Clearly outrun in the last race, but that was on ‘that’ particular day and who knows what tomorrow will bring. This horse will be stalking the pace and he has the perfect post to get a good position. I can’t imagine he won’t be making his presence known. 15-1….are you kidding me?
7. WE MISS ARTIE: I’ve commented on this horse in the past and his on again — off again race record. If he holds to his past performance record, he’s due for an off again race. Having said that, he did outrun some nice horse’s last time out. 50-1…whatever.
8. GENERAL A ROD: I’m not convinced this horse wants to go further than a flat mile. He looked fabulous galloping this morning. 15-1 seems about right to me.
9. VINCEREMOS: I was at Keeneland for the Blue Grass and I would guess that a form reversal like this horse experienced would have something to do with the track being synthetic. If he was injured, he surely wouldn’t be entered in the Kentucky Derby. I think he will like the sandier surface of Churchill and we will see a much better race out of him. Off the Blue Grass finish, 30-1 seems fair.
10. WILDCAT RED: Fast and game. I admire this horse. I’m unsure if the extra eighth of a mile is going to serve him well. But one thing is for sure, he will leave nothing on the track, this colt is as game as they come. 15-1 seems a little high.
11. HOPPERTUNITY: SCRATCHED
12. DANCE WITH FATE: I bet on this horse when I was in Lexington for the Dr. Tony Ryan Book Award and stayed long enough to attend the races at Keeneland. This horse looked good that day and he won like he was much the best. He obviously loves synthetic tracks. 20-1 seems a high price for a horse just off a big win against a very strong field.
13. CHITU: Pedigree, connections, speed. I like this horse a lot. Lightly raced, but obviously groomed for this race in particular. 20-1….no way.
14. MEDAL COUNT: Finished well in the Blue Grass, and it looks like the distance is going to be his friend. This will be his third start within a thirty day period, yikes. 20-1 seems a bit high.
15. TAPITURE: Not sure I can get behind this horse. His past performance record looks a little like the charts on some of the stocks I own. The ones which have a slow but steady downward trajectory. I keep hanging on, hoping they will come back. 8-1 seems generous to me.
16. INTENSE HOLIDAY: There is a lot of speed in this race, and this horse doesn’t mind getting dirt in his face. With a little luck he’ll stay out of trouble and close strongly. He’s run with some of the best this season and he can’t be overlooked. The added distance can only work in his favor. 8-1 would be a nice price.
17. COMMANDING CURVE: Would be a surprise, but bigger surprises than the possibility of this horse winning have been part of the charm and allure of the Kentucky Derby. 50-1 seems fair to me.
18. CANDY BOY: Very exciting colt, but I would have to go with California Chrome over this horse. There is a lot of speed in here and this colt can settle happily in behind them, a big plus in this race. 15-1 seems right on.
19. RIDE ON CURLIN: This colt could do it. He’s got some speed to get him over quickly from his less than beneficial post position and yet he could settle in and wait to see how the race unfolds. He can’t be dismissed. 15-1 seems fair.
20. WICKED STRONG: He’ll be coming. I have to throw out that run in the Holy Bull; everybody can have an off day. The Wood Memorial was an impressive prep for this race. 6-1 seems like perfect odds for this horse.
Since I tend to be a bit of a contrarian, and even though I would love to see California Chrome putting the brakes on a sixteenth of a mile before he crosses the finish line five lengths in front of the field, I’m going with Danza. Terrific field and I can’t wait to put my feet up and watch the pageantry and beauty of the day from the comfort of my air conditioned home.
Take care,
Shelley Riley author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure
www.shelleyriley.com
Dear Readers,
It’s time for me to take a look at the final twenty horses headed for the starting gate on May 3, 2014 in the 140th renewal of the Kentucky Derby.
First let’s talk about weather. The forecast for Saturday calls for occasional clouds and a delightful 73 degrees. So unless one or two of the horses prefer an off track, the surface shouldn’t be a problem for any of the participants.
Post position and the size of the field is always a problem. Loading that many horses seems like it takes forever, no matter how many seasoned gatemen they have on duty. If your horse is the first one in, the wait seems interminable. The gate is always a dangerous place when filled with fractious horses, and the longer they stand there the more likely it is something can go awry. I always held my breath until the horses where away and running in good order.
When you have two starting gates stuffed into a space designed to accommodate only one, the first couple of stalls are facing the inside rail, not the straightaway. So with the outside horses pushing for the rail and the inside horses trying not to run into it, things can get real interesting within the first couple of jumps away from the gate. The nice thing is the long straightaway at Churchill Downs and the jockeys are usually pretty careful not to get tangled up, even in the twenty horse cavalry charge right at the start.
Let’s begin with inside and work our way out.
1. VICAR’S IN TROUBLE: He’s got speed and stuck in the one hole, staring at the rail, it’s a good thing he does. Rosie will ask him to use this speed and barring an incident, he will be on the lead or close to it in the first furlong. As a Fairgrounds specialist, along with his front running style, this colt is being dismissed with current odds at 20-1. I think this is a mistake, while he wouldn’t be my first choice; he is far more of a contender than the odds would suggest.
2. HARRY’S HOLIDAY: Maybe I’m missing something, but 10-1 on the morning line seems a bit generous for this colt in this race. I can’t get too excited when I look through his past performances. Nice horse, no doubt, but not likely to be a threat. Now he’s 50-1 hmmm…
3. UNCLE SIGH: Sighing is exactly what I’m doing as I watch the Wood Memorial replay. What happened? He got left, and then he got bumped and then he got a whole lot of dirt in his face. He was jumping up and down heading into the back stretch, and it looked like he might have picked up the bit a couple of times and then he’d spit it out again. Once he was clear entering the stretch and the dirt wasn’t hitting him, this is when we see the colt, belatedly pick up the bit again and push forward. Those earlier races between Uncle Sigh and Samraat, wow, reminded me of those classic battles between Alydar and Affirmed. How about the Gotham, does a finish get any more exciting than that one? I don’t know what to do with this horse. One thing for sure, they’ll be asking him away from the gate, but it’s likely he’ll be getting a lot of dirt in his face. Even if we throw out the last race, he’s still going to have to improve several lengths to beat this bunch. 30-1 seems harsh though.
4. DANZA: I’m in love. This horse looked so good in the Arkansas Derby, he was completely relaxed while calmly stalking the speed, and when asked he squeezed through a tight spot on the rail and then just spanked a really tough field. All his previous races were just too short for him and it looked like Todd Pletcher used them simply as prep races for the longer distances. Masterfully played by his trainer, this colt is primed and ready. 8-1 ? Show me the money.
5. CALIFORNIA CHROME: I know, I’m expected to be head over heels in love with this horse. After all, I am a Californian and back in the day, Art and I even had a client in common. What’s not to like about this horse? He’s stunning, he has character and most importantly he wins. You know there’s a ‘but’ coming. While being thrilled by California Chrome’s huge leads coming up on the sixteenth pole, I’ve also been bothered by the way he pulls himself up. I get it; he’s so far in front, the jockey would look foolish if he kept asking him. But this horse doesn’t just go into cruise; he slows down so fast he looks like he’s throwing the brakes on. The finish wire at Churchill downs is farther down the stretch than the majority of racetracks. Does anyone remember Shoemaker and Gallant Man? Horses are creatures of habit, and trust me they know where the finish wire is. If California Chrome repeats what he did in the Santa Anita Derby, where he even switched his tail, he slowed so quickly, I’m afraid he’ll get caught. I would love to see a superhorse come out of California and I will be thrilled beyond words if he spanks this field like he has he has in the last three races. I’m just saying…and 5-2 sounds about right.
6. SAMRAAT: Five wins in six starts. Clearly outrun in the last race, but that was on ‘that’ particular day and who knows what tomorrow will bring. This horse will be stalking the pace and he has the perfect post to get a good position. I can’t imagine he won’t be making his presence known. 15-1….are you kidding me?
7. WE MISS ARTIE: I’ve commented on this horse in the past and his on again — off again race record. If he holds to his past performance record, he’s due for an off again race. Having said that, he did outrun some nice horse’s last time out. 50-1…whatever.
8. GENERAL A ROD: I’m not convinced this horse wants to go further than a flat mile. He looked fabulous galloping this morning. 15-1 seems about right to me.
9. VINCEREMOS: I was at Keeneland for the Blue Grass and I would guess that a form reversal like this horse experienced would have something to do with the track being synthetic. If he was injured, he surely wouldn’t be entered in the Kentucky Derby. I think he will like the sandier surface of Churchill and we will see a much better race out of him. Off the Blue Grass finish, 30-1 seems fair.
10. WILDCAT RED: Fast and game. I admire this horse. I’m unsure if the extra eighth of a mile is going to serve him well. But one thing is for sure, he will leave nothing on the track, this colt is as game as they come. 15-1 seems a little high.
11. HOPPERTUNITY: SCRATCHED
12. DANCE WITH FATE: I bet on this horse when I was in Lexington for the Dr. Tony Ryan Book Award and stayed long enough to attend the races at Keeneland. This horse looked good that day and he won like he was much the best. He obviously loves synthetic tracks. 20-1 seems a high price for a horse just off a big win against a very strong field.
13. CHITU: Pedigree, connections, speed. I like this horse a lot. Lightly raced, but obviously groomed for this race in particular. 20-1….no way.
14. MEDAL COUNT: Finished well in the Blue Grass, and it looks like the distance is going to be his friend. This will be his third start within a thirty day period, yikes. 20-1 seems a bit high.
15. TAPITURE: Not sure I can get behind this horse. His past performance record looks a little like the charts on some of the stocks I own. The ones which have a slow but steady downward trajectory. I keep hanging on, hoping they will come back. 8-1 seems generous to me.
16. INTENSE HOLIDAY: There is a lot of speed in this race, and this horse doesn’t mind getting dirt in his face. With a little luck he’ll stay out of trouble and close strongly. He’s run with some of the best this season and he can’t be overlooked. The added distance can only work in his favor. 8-1 would be a nice price.
17. COMMANDING CURVE: Would be a surprise, but bigger surprises than the possibility of this horse winning have been part of the charm and allure of the Kentucky Derby. 50-1 seems fair to me.
18. CANDY BOY: Very exciting colt, but I would have to go with California Chrome over this horse. There is a lot of speed in here and this colt can settle happily in behind them, a big plus in this race. 15-1 seems right on.
19. RIDE ON CURLIN: This colt could do it. He’s got some speed to get him over quickly from his less than beneficial post position and yet he could settle in and wait to see how the race unfolds. He can’t be dismissed. 15-1 seems fair.
20. WICKED STRONG: He’ll be coming. I have to throw out that run in the Holy Bull; everybody can have an off day. The Wood Memorial was an impressive prep for this race. 6-1 seems like perfect odds for this horse.
Since I tend to be a bit of a contrarian, and even though I would love to see California Chrome putting the brakes on a sixteenth of a mile before he crosses the finish line five lengths in front of the field, I’m going with Danza. Terrific field and I can’t wait to put my feet up and watch the pageantry and beauty of the day from the comfort of my air conditioned home.
Take care,
Shelley Riley author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure
www.shelleyriley.com
April 14, 2014
Dr. Tony Ryan Award, Wise Dan and the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes
April 14, 2014
Dear Readers,
I returned from Kentucky yesterday, and after a wonderful week spent immersed in the stately bluegrass lifestyle, I couldn’t wait to write down a few thoughts.
First day was spent at the Keeneland Two-year-old in training sale. I don’t care who you are, when you look at the young horses that have been prepared to perfection, parade around the classy Keeneland sale facility, on the muscle, it’s impossible not to dream about opportunity.
I must say that I wasn’t enamored with the number of babies who were asked to work an eighth of a mile in nine and change. Breaking ten flat seemed to be the magic number for consignors to achieve maximum return on their investment. Personally I wouldn’t have bought a two-year-old working that fast, while under the whip, this early in the year. But nonetheless, I was excited to be there, and enjoyed the day. I do love the sales, even when half the catalog was withdrawals.
Wednesday was spent, first in the Pegasus Room at Keeneland, the guest of Castleton Lyon, for lunch and an afternoon at the races. Later it was the elegant reception at the Castleton Lyon Farm, followed by the award presentation.
Each finalist was asked to spend a few minutes speaking to the assembled crowd about why they wrote their book. I was last up and though I have spoken in front of a lot of groups about racing and my memoir in particular, it was intimidating to be standing in front of some of the major owners and breeders in Kentucky.
Being first or last to speak, has its own set of pressures to be sure. But following two authors who’d stepped up to the podium with binders to read from, left me feeling desperately under prepared as I climbed the dais with my one page of notes.
To tell you the truth, I think at that point the crowd may have been prepared for brevity and thus my two minutes were quite well received. I would say I got a standing ovation, but in truth there weren’t any chairs.
These are the notes, in part, that I carried to the lectern:
· My memoir is a story about hard work, hope and embracing the inconceivable.
· And how working towards a dream is as important as believing they can come true.
· When I sat down to write the memoir, twenty years after my 1992 Triple Crown adventure. I quickly found I was writing to an audience, not of horsemen and women, but to the television audience that loves horses, and loves the beauty and pageantry of the sport of horse racing.
· I found I wanted to share the amazement, and the joy I experienced at having a horse good enough to take me to the heights of the Thoroughbred racing world.
· I wanted to give a glimpse into what goes on behind the Network camera lenses to those men, women, girls, and boys who tune in on the first Saturday in May to watch the pretty horses, the colorful crowds and the excitement that virtually heaves off the screen.
· What I knew for sure, was that I didn’t want to write a book that would be called Horse Racing for Dummies. So I called on all my prior experiences and let my stories unfold on the pages.
· But most of all, my memoir is a story about a head strong, talented and charismatic colt who never met anyone he didn’t like.
· Stanley’s ardor for life was palpable and a powerful motivator whenever I began to doubt myself and my hope would begin to fade.
· Within the pages and amidst the telling of the stories, you’ll find I have no problem poking fun at myself. You will laugh, and you will cry, but most of all when you’ve finished, you will hope that someday you’ll be lucky enough to be in the right place…at the right time…to catch lightning in a bottle.
And then the winner of the ten thousand dollar award was? David Owen. With his story about Foinavon, a 100-1 long shot, who won the 1967 Grand National steeple chase in England. Foinavon galloped home the winner, following a tragic accident where virtually every other horse in the field went down in a massive pile-up of injured Jockeys and dying horses. As a runner-up in the Dr. Tony Ryan Award, I was thrilled to be awarded a lovely Irish crystal replica of the Castleton Lyon tower, and a check for one thousand dollars. To have been included in the finals of such a fine award competition, and with my first book, was exciting as well as an affirmation that I’d accomplished, with all the hard work, what I’d set out to do. And that was to tell the story of Casual Lies, and in such a way, that anyone who read the book would understand what a remarkable journey this equally remarkable horse took us on.
Now onto the races at Keeneland, where I enjoyed watching Wise Dan make his 2014 debut a winning one, and what a crowd favorite he is. On Saturday I bet the winner of the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. I wasn’t particularly surprised when I looked at the tote board to see another California runner who wasn’t getting any respect in the wagering. Coming off a big second at Golden Gate, a racetrack that also boasts a synthetic surface, Dance With Fate was who I hurried to bet after the post parade.
I may have left Kentucky a slightly disappointed runner-up for the book award, but I left with money in my pocket, and it was bolstered with my winning wagers at beautiful Keeneland Race Track.
The Kentucky Derby is right around the corner now; do you have your favorite? Share your thoughts by posting a comment.
Take care,
Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure, 2013 Dr. Tony Ryan Award Finalist.www.shelleyriley.com
Dear Readers,
I returned from Kentucky yesterday, and after a wonderful week spent immersed in the stately bluegrass lifestyle, I couldn’t wait to write down a few thoughts.
First day was spent at the Keeneland Two-year-old in training sale. I don’t care who you are, when you look at the young horses that have been prepared to perfection, parade around the classy Keeneland sale facility, on the muscle, it’s impossible not to dream about opportunity.
I must say that I wasn’t enamored with the number of babies who were asked to work an eighth of a mile in nine and change. Breaking ten flat seemed to be the magic number for consignors to achieve maximum return on their investment. Personally I wouldn’t have bought a two-year-old working that fast, while under the whip, this early in the year. But nonetheless, I was excited to be there, and enjoyed the day. I do love the sales, even when half the catalog was withdrawals.
Wednesday was spent, first in the Pegasus Room at Keeneland, the guest of Castleton Lyon, for lunch and an afternoon at the races. Later it was the elegant reception at the Castleton Lyon Farm, followed by the award presentation.
Each finalist was asked to spend a few minutes speaking to the assembled crowd about why they wrote their book. I was last up and though I have spoken in front of a lot of groups about racing and my memoir in particular, it was intimidating to be standing in front of some of the major owners and breeders in Kentucky.
Being first or last to speak, has its own set of pressures to be sure. But following two authors who’d stepped up to the podium with binders to read from, left me feeling desperately under prepared as I climbed the dais with my one page of notes.
To tell you the truth, I think at that point the crowd may have been prepared for brevity and thus my two minutes were quite well received. I would say I got a standing ovation, but in truth there weren’t any chairs.
These are the notes, in part, that I carried to the lectern:
· My memoir is a story about hard work, hope and embracing the inconceivable.
· And how working towards a dream is as important as believing they can come true.
· When I sat down to write the memoir, twenty years after my 1992 Triple Crown adventure. I quickly found I was writing to an audience, not of horsemen and women, but to the television audience that loves horses, and loves the beauty and pageantry of the sport of horse racing.
· I found I wanted to share the amazement, and the joy I experienced at having a horse good enough to take me to the heights of the Thoroughbred racing world.
· I wanted to give a glimpse into what goes on behind the Network camera lenses to those men, women, girls, and boys who tune in on the first Saturday in May to watch the pretty horses, the colorful crowds and the excitement that virtually heaves off the screen.
· What I knew for sure, was that I didn’t want to write a book that would be called Horse Racing for Dummies. So I called on all my prior experiences and let my stories unfold on the pages.
· But most of all, my memoir is a story about a head strong, talented and charismatic colt who never met anyone he didn’t like.
· Stanley’s ardor for life was palpable and a powerful motivator whenever I began to doubt myself and my hope would begin to fade.
· Within the pages and amidst the telling of the stories, you’ll find I have no problem poking fun at myself. You will laugh, and you will cry, but most of all when you’ve finished, you will hope that someday you’ll be lucky enough to be in the right place…at the right time…to catch lightning in a bottle.
And then the winner of the ten thousand dollar award was? David Owen. With his story about Foinavon, a 100-1 long shot, who won the 1967 Grand National steeple chase in England. Foinavon galloped home the winner, following a tragic accident where virtually every other horse in the field went down in a massive pile-up of injured Jockeys and dying horses. As a runner-up in the Dr. Tony Ryan Award, I was thrilled to be awarded a lovely Irish crystal replica of the Castleton Lyon tower, and a check for one thousand dollars. To have been included in the finals of such a fine award competition, and with my first book, was exciting as well as an affirmation that I’d accomplished, with all the hard work, what I’d set out to do. And that was to tell the story of Casual Lies, and in such a way, that anyone who read the book would understand what a remarkable journey this equally remarkable horse took us on.
Now onto the races at Keeneland, where I enjoyed watching Wise Dan make his 2014 debut a winning one, and what a crowd favorite he is. On Saturday I bet the winner of the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. I wasn’t particularly surprised when I looked at the tote board to see another California runner who wasn’t getting any respect in the wagering. Coming off a big second at Golden Gate, a racetrack that also boasts a synthetic surface, Dance With Fate was who I hurried to bet after the post parade.
I may have left Kentucky a slightly disappointed runner-up for the book award, but I left with money in my pocket, and it was bolstered with my winning wagers at beautiful Keeneland Race Track.
The Kentucky Derby is right around the corner now; do you have your favorite? Share your thoughts by posting a comment.
Take care,
Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure, 2013 Dr. Tony Ryan Award Finalist.www.shelleyriley.com
April 3, 2014
California Chrome and the Santa Anita Derby
April 3, 2014
Dear Readers,
Oh boy, now I get to talk about a race I’ve had first-hand experience with. The (GI) Santa Anita Derby. Take a moment and think about some of the horses who have graced the Santa Anita course over the years. How about in 1992, where the first three finishers were A.P. Indy, Bertrando and Casual Lies?
This Saturday there will be eight horses contesting the one-mile and one-eighth distance. There are always surprises in horse racing. Even the really big and prestigious races like the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby, are not immune to an upset victory by a horse that had everybody scratching their heads when they saw his name come out on the overnight.
We all know how favors can be called in, and arms twisted to get another entry to fill an important race. I think there might be a sore elbow or two in the barn area at Santa Anita today. But then again, back in 1992, they were scratching their heads over my horse.
So here are my thoughts.
1. Rprettyboyfloyd – You know, this is a nice colt. The distance will help him, if not the company. But in all truth, he’s one win away from being a serious contender in some interesting races. This is a mean bunch to try to show that though. Blinkers on might make it more interesting.
2. Friendswith K Mill – Would be a surprise.
3. Hoppertunity – He could end up the speed in this race. Note that he ran behind Rprettyboyfloyd and Hoppertunity does seem to fire every other time. A rather disturbing pattern.
4. Big Tire– Well he broke his maiden and he does look to be improving. But this is a big jump.
5. California Chrome – He’s been known to throw a clinker, but it looks like he forgot how. I love the way this horse moves. He wins off by so far that you can’t really tell what he will do if he gets hooked in the last eighth of a mile. To me, he doesn’t look like he gets out of a high gallop, at least for him, once he gets in front. I’m a big fan, but those clinkers?
6. Candy Boy– This horse is definitely a contender.
7. Schoolofhardrocks – Would be surprise. But he is a nice colt.
8. Dublin Up– He could show some speed, but I think it would be a big mistake.
So who do I think will win? Well it seems so obvious that it bothers me. And yet, I would love to see California Chrome win. This race is going to be tougher than anything he’s run in before, no doubt about it. But I can’t bet against a horse that wins like this horse has been winning. However, there are still those pesky clinkers he’s thrown in the distant past. I don’t like to bet on runaway favorites, so I would put my money; win, place and show on Candy Boy. Then I would sit back and enjoy the big day, and recall the memories of people climbing to the top of the light standards to scream “Come on Stanley.”
Take care,
Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure, finalist in the Castleton Lyon Dr. Tony Ryan Award.
www.shelleyriley.com
Dear Readers,
Oh boy, now I get to talk about a race I’ve had first-hand experience with. The (GI) Santa Anita Derby. Take a moment and think about some of the horses who have graced the Santa Anita course over the years. How about in 1992, where the first three finishers were A.P. Indy, Bertrando and Casual Lies?
This Saturday there will be eight horses contesting the one-mile and one-eighth distance. There are always surprises in horse racing. Even the really big and prestigious races like the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby, are not immune to an upset victory by a horse that had everybody scratching their heads when they saw his name come out on the overnight.
We all know how favors can be called in, and arms twisted to get another entry to fill an important race. I think there might be a sore elbow or two in the barn area at Santa Anita today. But then again, back in 1992, they were scratching their heads over my horse.
So here are my thoughts.
1. Rprettyboyfloyd – You know, this is a nice colt. The distance will help him, if not the company. But in all truth, he’s one win away from being a serious contender in some interesting races. This is a mean bunch to try to show that though. Blinkers on might make it more interesting.
2. Friendswith K Mill – Would be a surprise.
3. Hoppertunity – He could end up the speed in this race. Note that he ran behind Rprettyboyfloyd and Hoppertunity does seem to fire every other time. A rather disturbing pattern.
4. Big Tire– Well he broke his maiden and he does look to be improving. But this is a big jump.
5. California Chrome – He’s been known to throw a clinker, but it looks like he forgot how. I love the way this horse moves. He wins off by so far that you can’t really tell what he will do if he gets hooked in the last eighth of a mile. To me, he doesn’t look like he gets out of a high gallop, at least for him, once he gets in front. I’m a big fan, but those clinkers?
6. Candy Boy– This horse is definitely a contender.
7. Schoolofhardrocks – Would be surprise. But he is a nice colt.
8. Dublin Up– He could show some speed, but I think it would be a big mistake.
So who do I think will win? Well it seems so obvious that it bothers me. And yet, I would love to see California Chrome win. This race is going to be tougher than anything he’s run in before, no doubt about it. But I can’t bet against a horse that wins like this horse has been winning. However, there are still those pesky clinkers he’s thrown in the distant past. I don’t like to bet on runaway favorites, so I would put my money; win, place and show on Candy Boy. Then I would sit back and enjoy the big day, and recall the memories of people climbing to the top of the light standards to scream “Come on Stanley.”
Take care,
Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure, finalist in the Castleton Lyon Dr. Tony Ryan Award.
www.shelleyriley.com
March 29, 2014
My Thoughts on the (GI) Florida Derby
March 29, 2014
Dear Readers, Here are my thoughts on the (GI) Florida Derby, going one-mile and one-eighth at Gulfstream Park. 1. Wildcat Red– This colt’s past performance charts are starting to look pretty awesome. Add to that, in the last race, he got hooked early and ground it out all the way. While you’re looking, take note of the quality of the horses that finished behind him.
2. Matador – I don’t think so.
3. Cairo Prince – He’s definitely going to get tested today. What a horse.
4. Constitution – Really? With his breeding and his connections…how can you ignore this colt?
5. East Hall– Good Grief, this horse has started twelve times in little more than nine months. That is amazing when you consider this is a just-turned three-year-old, and most of his races were as a two-year-old. This must be an iron-legged son-of-a-gun.
6. General A Rod – You can’t argue with the quality of this colt and you need only look at the type of horses he’s been running against to prove it. And…he doesn’t need the lead. Very versatile.
7. Allstar – Could affect the front runners, but little more.
8. Spot – I find it hard to make a case for this horse, despite his trainer.
Barring late scratches, there are four horses out of eight who look like they have a legitimate chance of affecting the order of finish. But then again that is the sort of statement that guarantees a long shot steels the race.
Since I love to pick a winner, I’m afraid I’m destined to be disappointed. Wildcat Red, Cairo Prince, General A Rod? These three look so good; you could easily bet a tri-fecta box, but there is one pesky little problem—Constitution.
Reputation means a lot in this business and Constitution’s connections don’t have a reputation of entering a race just to fill a stall in the starting gate.
I’ve been firmly ensconced on the Cairo Prince bandwagon. But Wildcat Red, yikes, he looks so good. The condition of the track may hold the key to picking this race. I’m going to be rooting for a safe, cleanly run race and a four horse dead heat.
This is really tough for me, and I think a good race to watch and enjoy. As a horseman, this is without a doubt the best free entertainment going. Good Luck.
Take care,
Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure, finalist in the Castleton Lyon Dr. Tony Ryan Award.
www.shelleyriley.com
Dear Readers, Here are my thoughts on the (GI) Florida Derby, going one-mile and one-eighth at Gulfstream Park. 1. Wildcat Red– This colt’s past performance charts are starting to look pretty awesome. Add to that, in the last race, he got hooked early and ground it out all the way. While you’re looking, take note of the quality of the horses that finished behind him.
2. Matador – I don’t think so.
3. Cairo Prince – He’s definitely going to get tested today. What a horse.
4. Constitution – Really? With his breeding and his connections…how can you ignore this colt?
5. East Hall– Good Grief, this horse has started twelve times in little more than nine months. That is amazing when you consider this is a just-turned three-year-old, and most of his races were as a two-year-old. This must be an iron-legged son-of-a-gun.
6. General A Rod – You can’t argue with the quality of this colt and you need only look at the type of horses he’s been running against to prove it. And…he doesn’t need the lead. Very versatile.
7. Allstar – Could affect the front runners, but little more.
8. Spot – I find it hard to make a case for this horse, despite his trainer.
Barring late scratches, there are four horses out of eight who look like they have a legitimate chance of affecting the order of finish. But then again that is the sort of statement that guarantees a long shot steels the race.
Since I love to pick a winner, I’m afraid I’m destined to be disappointed. Wildcat Red, Cairo Prince, General A Rod? These three look so good; you could easily bet a tri-fecta box, but there is one pesky little problem—Constitution.
Reputation means a lot in this business and Constitution’s connections don’t have a reputation of entering a race just to fill a stall in the starting gate.
I’ve been firmly ensconced on the Cairo Prince bandwagon. But Wildcat Red, yikes, he looks so good. The condition of the track may hold the key to picking this race. I’m going to be rooting for a safe, cleanly run race and a four horse dead heat.
This is really tough for me, and I think a good race to watch and enjoy. As a horseman, this is without a doubt the best free entertainment going. Good Luck.
Take care,
Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure, finalist in the Castleton Lyon Dr. Tony Ryan Award.
www.shelleyriley.com
My Look at the (GII) Louisiana Derby
March 29, 2014
Dear Readers,
Sorry, it’s been a busy week and I didn’t have the time to look at this week’s races until today. But here we go, the (GII) Louisiana Derby, one-mile and one-eighth, running today over the Fair Grounds dirt course.
1. Intense Holiday – This will be his eighth race in as many months. He should be well seasoned by now. This horse has been running against tough fields every time and he has never run a clunker, well maybe one. I doubt we will see him on the front end in this field, but he should be coming strong at the end.
2. King Cyrus – I’m not sure why this horse is in this race. Nice colt, but unless his connections know something that doesn’t show on the charts; I can’t see him making an impact on the finishing order.
3. Louies Flower – Looked like his connections may have bit off more than their horse could chew in the last race. The Southwest was packed with big time contenders.
4. Flat Gone– I don’t see this colt being a threat in this race.
5. Gold Hawk– Nice colt, but he has been beaten by the favorites in this race, twice. While it would be a surprise if he won, it wouldn’t be a shocker.
6. Vicar’s In Trouble – This horse has speed, but he can be rated. He will not be ignored.
7. Commanding Curve – I need to see another race at this level before I can back this horse. He belongs; I’m just not sure he can beat the favorites.
8. Rise Up – This horse wants the lead, he won’t be alone up there, and I think he’ll weaken.
9. In Trouble – In the Gotham, this horse was coming off a five month gap between races. With only two lifetime races under his belt before that, and those were at six furlongs. Clearly one of the speed horses in the race, he didn’t disappoint. He was fresh and rank on the front end, and when he got hooked in the lane he looked like he might stop. Not only did he not stop, he fought every step of the way despite being put in tight on the rail and clearly tired. Love this horse; he should improve considerably off that last race.
10. Albano – Okay, this horse has speed, but I think he can stalk the speed while keeping himself out of trouble. I also think they tried to steal the Risen Star and after fighting off Vicar’s In Trouble, who was positioned between him and Intense Holiday. I think he didn’t see the latter coming. He had to re accelerate and ended the race a hard fought second, beaten by the smallest of margins. I like this horse a lot.
So who do I pick?
For myself, I would buy an exacta box between In Trouble and Albano, and that’s because I can’t pick between the two. There are two other horses in this race that clearly have a chance of being in winner’s circle if the speed commits suicide on the front end. Vicar’s In Trouble and Intense Holiday. So it comes down to track condition and how it’s playing out.
And then there’s the Florida Derby (GI) at Gulfstream Park. I will work on that now and do another posting shortly.
Take care,Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure, finalist in the Castleton Lyon Dr. Tony Ryan Award.
www.shelleyriley.com
Dear Readers,
Sorry, it’s been a busy week and I didn’t have the time to look at this week’s races until today. But here we go, the (GII) Louisiana Derby, one-mile and one-eighth, running today over the Fair Grounds dirt course.
1. Intense Holiday – This will be his eighth race in as many months. He should be well seasoned by now. This horse has been running against tough fields every time and he has never run a clunker, well maybe one. I doubt we will see him on the front end in this field, but he should be coming strong at the end.
2. King Cyrus – I’m not sure why this horse is in this race. Nice colt, but unless his connections know something that doesn’t show on the charts; I can’t see him making an impact on the finishing order.
3. Louies Flower – Looked like his connections may have bit off more than their horse could chew in the last race. The Southwest was packed with big time contenders.
4. Flat Gone– I don’t see this colt being a threat in this race.
5. Gold Hawk– Nice colt, but he has been beaten by the favorites in this race, twice. While it would be a surprise if he won, it wouldn’t be a shocker.
6. Vicar’s In Trouble – This horse has speed, but he can be rated. He will not be ignored.
7. Commanding Curve – I need to see another race at this level before I can back this horse. He belongs; I’m just not sure he can beat the favorites.
8. Rise Up – This horse wants the lead, he won’t be alone up there, and I think he’ll weaken.
9. In Trouble – In the Gotham, this horse was coming off a five month gap between races. With only two lifetime races under his belt before that, and those were at six furlongs. Clearly one of the speed horses in the race, he didn’t disappoint. He was fresh and rank on the front end, and when he got hooked in the lane he looked like he might stop. Not only did he not stop, he fought every step of the way despite being put in tight on the rail and clearly tired. Love this horse; he should improve considerably off that last race.
10. Albano – Okay, this horse has speed, but I think he can stalk the speed while keeping himself out of trouble. I also think they tried to steal the Risen Star and after fighting off Vicar’s In Trouble, who was positioned between him and Intense Holiday. I think he didn’t see the latter coming. He had to re accelerate and ended the race a hard fought second, beaten by the smallest of margins. I like this horse a lot.
So who do I pick?
For myself, I would buy an exacta box between In Trouble and Albano, and that’s because I can’t pick between the two. There are two other horses in this race that clearly have a chance of being in winner’s circle if the speed commits suicide on the front end. Vicar’s In Trouble and Intense Holiday. So it comes down to track condition and how it’s playing out.
And then there’s the Florida Derby (GI) at Gulfstream Park. I will work on that now and do another posting shortly.
Take care,Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure, finalist in the Castleton Lyon Dr. Tony Ryan Award.
www.shelleyriley.com
March 23, 2014
Speedy Sunland Derby
March 23, 2014
Dear Readers,
As promised, here are my thoughts on the one-mile and one-eighth (GIII) Sunland Derby at Sunland Park.
1. Bourbonize – This horse looks like a grinder to me, he gets into one gear and stays there, if the speed slows down, he’ll be grinding along passing tiring horses. I watched the replay of the Southwest Stakes and he didn’t seem to have any excuses.
2. Garen – Lightly raced and he looks like he’s getting smarter with each race. He has speed, but is it stake race level speed?
3. Commissioner – Fabulous pedigree, great connections, but what happened in the Fountain of Youth Stakes? He didn’t look uncomfortable. It didn’t look like he got in trouble. He looked like he got outrun. Blinkers on. (Stalker?)
4. Global Strike – He’s got speed, and he’s getting better with each race. This race looks like a good spot to find out what they’ve got. (Speed)
5. Tanzanite Cat– This horse likes to run on the front end, and this race is setting up so he’ll have a lot of company contesting that lead. I wonder what would happen if they tried taking him back off the pace setters. (Speed)
6. Lawly’s Goal– Would be a surprise.
7. Midnight Hawk– Hooked a monster in the San Felipe. This horse has speed, but I don’t think he has to have the lead. Very Impressive.
8. Rebranded – This colt is familiar with the course and has run two good races over the surface. I can see why they entered him, but I think the California invaders are going to be really tough. (Speed? /stalker.)
9. Chitu – Fabulous race in Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) and his first time going around two turns. (Speed)
Wow, this race is setting up to be a cavalry charge. They can’t all be in front. I really like Chitu to be there at the finish. I think I would take a flyer on an exacta box with Global Strike and Chitu. If I was willing to fork over the money on a Tri-fecta, I would have to throw in Midnight Hawk. I don’t like the way Commissioner ran in the Fountain of Youth, so I can’t use him.
I still think Midnight Hawk can stalk the leaders, so he could be the choice if there is a suicide pace. I love speed, so this race is going to be a lot of fun to watch.
Take care,Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure
www.shelleyriley.com
Dear Readers,
As promised, here are my thoughts on the one-mile and one-eighth (GIII) Sunland Derby at Sunland Park.
1. Bourbonize – This horse looks like a grinder to me, he gets into one gear and stays there, if the speed slows down, he’ll be grinding along passing tiring horses. I watched the replay of the Southwest Stakes and he didn’t seem to have any excuses.
2. Garen – Lightly raced and he looks like he’s getting smarter with each race. He has speed, but is it stake race level speed?
3. Commissioner – Fabulous pedigree, great connections, but what happened in the Fountain of Youth Stakes? He didn’t look uncomfortable. It didn’t look like he got in trouble. He looked like he got outrun. Blinkers on. (Stalker?)
4. Global Strike – He’s got speed, and he’s getting better with each race. This race looks like a good spot to find out what they’ve got. (Speed)
5. Tanzanite Cat– This horse likes to run on the front end, and this race is setting up so he’ll have a lot of company contesting that lead. I wonder what would happen if they tried taking him back off the pace setters. (Speed)
6. Lawly’s Goal– Would be a surprise.
7. Midnight Hawk– Hooked a monster in the San Felipe. This horse has speed, but I don’t think he has to have the lead. Very Impressive.
8. Rebranded – This colt is familiar with the course and has run two good races over the surface. I can see why they entered him, but I think the California invaders are going to be really tough. (Speed? /stalker.)
9. Chitu – Fabulous race in Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) and his first time going around two turns. (Speed)
Wow, this race is setting up to be a cavalry charge. They can’t all be in front. I really like Chitu to be there at the finish. I think I would take a flyer on an exacta box with Global Strike and Chitu. If I was willing to fork over the money on a Tri-fecta, I would have to throw in Midnight Hawk. I don’t like the way Commissioner ran in the Fountain of Youth, so I can’t use him.
I still think Midnight Hawk can stalk the leaders, so he could be the choice if there is a suicide pace. I love speed, so this race is going to be a lot of fun to watch.
Take care,Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure
www.shelleyriley.com
