Divyaroop Bhatnagar's Blog, page 3
September 20, 2018
The New Middle Class
We recently stayed at a colonial hotel in Darjeeling. The hotel is very la di da and focuses on creating an ambience reminiscent of pre-independence British India complete with afternoon tea and coal fires in all the rooms. It is a small hotel and apart from us and a few westerners, there were a large number of people who were part of a fitness group let by a well known nutritionist. This group was a mixture of people, old and young, and there were children too. Most of the participants were from Gujarat and Maharashtra though there were a few from Kolkata as well. Evidently, anyone who stays at this hotel is reasonably well off as it is an expensive, upscale property.
It was interesting to observe the behaviour patterns of this group vs the other residents of the hotel. All of them took off their footwear before entering any of the rooms. All the floors were carpeted and it was fairly cold so everyone else, including the hotel staff kept their shoes on. Clearly there was some cultural conditioning at work here. The hotel served the finest Darjeeling tea, perfectly brewed and presented without any milk or sugar. This group all asked for masala chai, obviously finding the Darjeeling tea insipid. Further, a sizable chunk of them had strict dietary preferences such as Vegetarian food or a Jain diet. They mostly spoke in Gujarati or Marathi with some Hindi thrown in. Though they were dressed in western clothes mostly, they did not speak English. If they did, it was with a broad regional accent, It would be fair to assume that most of them did not go to the so called 'Convent or Missionary' schools and that they did not have English speaking parents.
Vir Sanghvi's recent article captures the profile of this segment New Middle Class (NMC) and its political leanings. Apart from whether they are English speaking or not, the critical difference between this segment and the Old Middle Class (OMC) seems to be their religious underpinnings. In my view this manifests itself in two ways. Please note that whether they are OMC or NMC, the underlying religion in India is mostly Hindu:
The OMC tends to practice religion intermittently. (There are shades of difference between people in this segment and it is not as black and white as it is presented here) Events like marriages, deaths, and other significant life events are celebrated with full ritual but that's about it. Temple visits are minimal and are more like tourist events. The NMC is certainly more ritualistic and practices religion overtly.The OMC explicitly states that it is secular. Not everyone is sure of what this means but I presume that in this context it refers to treating people of all religions equally. The NMC does nothing of the kind. The Hindu religion is clearly superior for them and they would, at best, tolerate people from other religions without too much of social mixing. It is clear that the OMC is dwindling in numbers. This is the breed which is often derisively referred to as the Lutyens Elite, Presstitutes etc as most of the established civil service and media were from the OMC segment. They are being simply overwhelmed in numbers by the NMC as time goes on. This change has profound implications for India. Perhaps because of the stronger Hindu underpinnings of the NMC they naturally gravitate towards the BJP, a fact that the party has joyfully accepted and exploited. Whether it acts on their aspirations (Mandir in Ayodhya, Common Civil Code, Muscular policy against Muslim separatists in Kashmir, Expelling illegal Bangladeshis etc) or not is still work in progress. It may be argued that a 'strong' pro Hindu policy is easier to articulate when you are in opposition rather when you run the country with a sizable majority.
The opposition parties, specifically the Congress have totally failed to appreciate the growth of the NMC. There is a strong vested interest spearheaded by a section of the English language media (NDTV, Sagarika Ghosh etc) that essentially looks down upon the NMC while deifying the tenets of the OMC. There is also a belief that, with time, the NMC will become like the OMC. That sounds like wishful thinking and is unlikely to happen. In reality the OMC has all but withered away. Unless the opposition parties recognize the growth of the NMC phenomenon they will be unable to strategise on how to deal with it.
The foregoing discussion essentially boils down to changing attitudes towards religious minorities, specifically Muslims. This is indeed the key differentiator between the OMC and the NMC. English speaking is a non issue. Global realities will ensure that English will grow and prosper in India. We have a natural advantage in this respect and it would be foolish to fritter it away. So what do these changing attitudes translate into? In my view there are 4 critical issues:
The perception that the Indian 'secular' state favours religious minorities over Hindus. This perception leads to demands for a 'level playing field' or loosely translated a common civil code (common here would largely equate to a Hindu civil code)Righting of historical wrongs. This centres around issues like building the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, identifying the Taj Mahal as a Shiv Mandir or changing Muslim place names like Allahabad to Prayagraj Rewriting history like defining Maharana Pratap as the victor at Haldighati or highlighting Hindu Kings like Lalitaditya who have been ignored by Colonial and Leftist historians, or insisting that most scientific, medical and other discoveries happened in IndiaReforming obscurantist Islam - issues such as the ban to triple talaq or allowing the entry of women into Muslim shrines like Haji Ali.Where is all this leading? That's a tough question to answer. I am of the very strong opinion that India is a self correcting society. By that I mean a place that does not swing towards extremes. Social revolution, military rule, totalitarian regimes etc will not flourish here simply because of the inherent pluralism of our society. But will we find a new equilibrium where our Hindu identity finds greater focus? Yes, I do think so. What does it mean for us and how will it impact our daily lives only time will tell.
It was interesting to observe the behaviour patterns of this group vs the other residents of the hotel. All of them took off their footwear before entering any of the rooms. All the floors were carpeted and it was fairly cold so everyone else, including the hotel staff kept their shoes on. Clearly there was some cultural conditioning at work here. The hotel served the finest Darjeeling tea, perfectly brewed and presented without any milk or sugar. This group all asked for masala chai, obviously finding the Darjeeling tea insipid. Further, a sizable chunk of them had strict dietary preferences such as Vegetarian food or a Jain diet. They mostly spoke in Gujarati or Marathi with some Hindi thrown in. Though they were dressed in western clothes mostly, they did not speak English. If they did, it was with a broad regional accent, It would be fair to assume that most of them did not go to the so called 'Convent or Missionary' schools and that they did not have English speaking parents.
Vir Sanghvi's recent article captures the profile of this segment New Middle Class (NMC) and its political leanings. Apart from whether they are English speaking or not, the critical difference between this segment and the Old Middle Class (OMC) seems to be their religious underpinnings. In my view this manifests itself in two ways. Please note that whether they are OMC or NMC, the underlying religion in India is mostly Hindu:
The OMC tends to practice religion intermittently. (There are shades of difference between people in this segment and it is not as black and white as it is presented here) Events like marriages, deaths, and other significant life events are celebrated with full ritual but that's about it. Temple visits are minimal and are more like tourist events. The NMC is certainly more ritualistic and practices religion overtly.The OMC explicitly states that it is secular. Not everyone is sure of what this means but I presume that in this context it refers to treating people of all religions equally. The NMC does nothing of the kind. The Hindu religion is clearly superior for them and they would, at best, tolerate people from other religions without too much of social mixing. It is clear that the OMC is dwindling in numbers. This is the breed which is often derisively referred to as the Lutyens Elite, Presstitutes etc as most of the established civil service and media were from the OMC segment. They are being simply overwhelmed in numbers by the NMC as time goes on. This change has profound implications for India. Perhaps because of the stronger Hindu underpinnings of the NMC they naturally gravitate towards the BJP, a fact that the party has joyfully accepted and exploited. Whether it acts on their aspirations (Mandir in Ayodhya, Common Civil Code, Muscular policy against Muslim separatists in Kashmir, Expelling illegal Bangladeshis etc) or not is still work in progress. It may be argued that a 'strong' pro Hindu policy is easier to articulate when you are in opposition rather when you run the country with a sizable majority.
The opposition parties, specifically the Congress have totally failed to appreciate the growth of the NMC. There is a strong vested interest spearheaded by a section of the English language media (NDTV, Sagarika Ghosh etc) that essentially looks down upon the NMC while deifying the tenets of the OMC. There is also a belief that, with time, the NMC will become like the OMC. That sounds like wishful thinking and is unlikely to happen. In reality the OMC has all but withered away. Unless the opposition parties recognize the growth of the NMC phenomenon they will be unable to strategise on how to deal with it.
The foregoing discussion essentially boils down to changing attitudes towards religious minorities, specifically Muslims. This is indeed the key differentiator between the OMC and the NMC. English speaking is a non issue. Global realities will ensure that English will grow and prosper in India. We have a natural advantage in this respect and it would be foolish to fritter it away. So what do these changing attitudes translate into? In my view there are 4 critical issues:
The perception that the Indian 'secular' state favours religious minorities over Hindus. This perception leads to demands for a 'level playing field' or loosely translated a common civil code (common here would largely equate to a Hindu civil code)Righting of historical wrongs. This centres around issues like building the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, identifying the Taj Mahal as a Shiv Mandir or changing Muslim place names like Allahabad to Prayagraj Rewriting history like defining Maharana Pratap as the victor at Haldighati or highlighting Hindu Kings like Lalitaditya who have been ignored by Colonial and Leftist historians, or insisting that most scientific, medical and other discoveries happened in IndiaReforming obscurantist Islam - issues such as the ban to triple talaq or allowing the entry of women into Muslim shrines like Haji Ali.Where is all this leading? That's a tough question to answer. I am of the very strong opinion that India is a self correcting society. By that I mean a place that does not swing towards extremes. Social revolution, military rule, totalitarian regimes etc will not flourish here simply because of the inherent pluralism of our society. But will we find a new equilibrium where our Hindu identity finds greater focus? Yes, I do think so. What does it mean for us and how will it impact our daily lives only time will tell.
May 12, 2018
Corruption
"Dishonest or fraudulent conduct by those in power, typically involving bribery." - Oxford Dictionary
I looked up the definition of the word 'corruption' in several dictionaries. I think the Oxford Dictionary definition seems to be the best. There are three critical aspects in this definition:
Dishonest or fraudulent conductPeople in powerBriberyThis is a very precise definition. It is important to realise that all forms of illegal activity are not corruption. Only those which specifically involve misuse of a powerful or official position.
In addition to this stream of thought, there is another aspect that merits understanding. Corruption is of basically two types in my view:
Transactional corruption - This could also be referred to as the sort of corruption that a common man or even a company encounters in daily life. For example, this could refer to a petty matter such as bribing a traffic policeman to avoid a challan, paying 'speed money' to get a driving license or paying a bribe to get a government department to do their job. It could also involve paying money to get building plans sanctioned by a builder or to get a completion certificate. This kind of corruption is all pervasive and we all face it on a daily basis. Are we guilty of giving bribes? I am, for one. There have been innumerable instances where we condone transactional corruption as otherwise it would be well nigh impossible to get anything done.Institutional corruption - This refers to matters such as the 2G scam or the Bofors deal or the purchase of the Rafaele fighters (I do not wish to get into a political debate or controversy here. These are merely illustrative examples). The beneficiary in such cases may be political parties with some collateral flow into individual pockets. These would also include scamsters like Vijay Mallaya or Nirav Modi who are driven by simple venal greed. Typically, the sums involved are mind boggling and average people are not really able to comprehend the modus operandi or the issues involved. The normal reaction is one of anger and frustration but for most ordinary people there is no clarity on how these scams happened or how they can be prevented.The third aspect which comes up when you try to analyse corruption is, "What is the public perception of those who are corrupt?" In my view this is a real conundrum. Successful business men may be idolised, even though we all know that their business empires may be built on questionable ethics and practices. Corrupt politicians command a major fan following and are repeatedly elected.A related matter that often comes up is of election funding. The deliberate ambiguity that surrounds this area benefits all political parties and taints a large swathe of politicians and common people. One may conclude that the thin line between sharp business practices, governance and corruption is not clearly defined, at least in the eyes of the common man. Until this definition is sharply etched, largely by proper enforcement, legislation aimed at tightening controls on political funding, a watchful independent media and the judiciary, there is little or no incentive for Institutional corruption to be curbed. Frankly, I see little hope for significant change in this area going forward.
Unfortunately, public attention is largely focused on Institutional corruption as it involves glamorous public figures and huge sums of money. The common man and the problems he faces are of little interest to anyone. In reality the common man is most impacted by transactional corruption. If the political parties could see beyond their noses they would realise that curbing transactional corruption is low hanging fruit as it covers a vast number of people and provides a nice little halo for them. How does one tackle transactional corruption? I have the following ideas:
The leader (whether he is a PM or a CM) should publicly and strongly repudiate transactional corruption. He should make examples of bureaucrats, policemen and politicians who are caught with their hands in the till.IT - by providing IT solutions to small issues like driving licenses, Direct Transfer of Benefits and other similar matters corruption and the role of touts can be significantly reduced.Oversight - for example CC TV proliferation would bring down examples of corruption in traffic policemen as there is risk that illegal transactions would be captured on camera.I could go on with the list, but the objective of this blog is not to provide a primer on how to curb transactional corruption. The authorities are far more capable than this blogger to formulate such a strategy. I may be cynical here, but by curbing transactional corruption the government does not lose anything. Instead, it gains significantly in brownie points. If that glory refurbishes their tainted halos they may be eventually motivated to actually tackle the hydra headed spectre of Institutional corruption that is consuming our country.
I looked up the definition of the word 'corruption' in several dictionaries. I think the Oxford Dictionary definition seems to be the best. There are three critical aspects in this definition:
Dishonest or fraudulent conductPeople in powerBriberyThis is a very precise definition. It is important to realise that all forms of illegal activity are not corruption. Only those which specifically involve misuse of a powerful or official position.
In addition to this stream of thought, there is another aspect that merits understanding. Corruption is of basically two types in my view:
Transactional corruption - This could also be referred to as the sort of corruption that a common man or even a company encounters in daily life. For example, this could refer to a petty matter such as bribing a traffic policeman to avoid a challan, paying 'speed money' to get a driving license or paying a bribe to get a government department to do their job. It could also involve paying money to get building plans sanctioned by a builder or to get a completion certificate. This kind of corruption is all pervasive and we all face it on a daily basis. Are we guilty of giving bribes? I am, for one. There have been innumerable instances where we condone transactional corruption as otherwise it would be well nigh impossible to get anything done.Institutional corruption - This refers to matters such as the 2G scam or the Bofors deal or the purchase of the Rafaele fighters (I do not wish to get into a political debate or controversy here. These are merely illustrative examples). The beneficiary in such cases may be political parties with some collateral flow into individual pockets. These would also include scamsters like Vijay Mallaya or Nirav Modi who are driven by simple venal greed. Typically, the sums involved are mind boggling and average people are not really able to comprehend the modus operandi or the issues involved. The normal reaction is one of anger and frustration but for most ordinary people there is no clarity on how these scams happened or how they can be prevented.The third aspect which comes up when you try to analyse corruption is, "What is the public perception of those who are corrupt?" In my view this is a real conundrum. Successful business men may be idolised, even though we all know that their business empires may be built on questionable ethics and practices. Corrupt politicians command a major fan following and are repeatedly elected.A related matter that often comes up is of election funding. The deliberate ambiguity that surrounds this area benefits all political parties and taints a large swathe of politicians and common people. One may conclude that the thin line between sharp business practices, governance and corruption is not clearly defined, at least in the eyes of the common man. Until this definition is sharply etched, largely by proper enforcement, legislation aimed at tightening controls on political funding, a watchful independent media and the judiciary, there is little or no incentive for Institutional corruption to be curbed. Frankly, I see little hope for significant change in this area going forward.
Unfortunately, public attention is largely focused on Institutional corruption as it involves glamorous public figures and huge sums of money. The common man and the problems he faces are of little interest to anyone. In reality the common man is most impacted by transactional corruption. If the political parties could see beyond their noses they would realise that curbing transactional corruption is low hanging fruit as it covers a vast number of people and provides a nice little halo for them. How does one tackle transactional corruption? I have the following ideas:
The leader (whether he is a PM or a CM) should publicly and strongly repudiate transactional corruption. He should make examples of bureaucrats, policemen and politicians who are caught with their hands in the till.IT - by providing IT solutions to small issues like driving licenses, Direct Transfer of Benefits and other similar matters corruption and the role of touts can be significantly reduced.Oversight - for example CC TV proliferation would bring down examples of corruption in traffic policemen as there is risk that illegal transactions would be captured on camera.I could go on with the list, but the objective of this blog is not to provide a primer on how to curb transactional corruption. The authorities are far more capable than this blogger to formulate such a strategy. I may be cynical here, but by curbing transactional corruption the government does not lose anything. Instead, it gains significantly in brownie points. If that glory refurbishes their tainted halos they may be eventually motivated to actually tackle the hydra headed spectre of Institutional corruption that is consuming our country.
November 10, 2017
The Ignominy of being Liberal
There are several definitions of the word 'liberal' but the one that I like most is (someone who is) "open to new behavior or opinions and willing to discard traditional values"
One would imagine that such a person would be regarded positively by most people. The rage and scorn that is heaped on 'liberals' in India today is therefore surprising to say the least. In order to understand this phenomenon one needs to:
Understand the connotations that the word 'liberal' has acquired beyond the dictionary definition.Analyse what emotions these interpretations evoke amongst the public to see why 'liberals' are so reviled in our country.So what has 'liberal' come to mean in India? Here is my view in no particular order:
Liberal stands for westernised in terms of education and use of the English language for communication. If you are reading this blog you are possibly a liberal but not necessarily! It stands for left leaning thinkers. In general the word 'left' has also acquired a wider meaning than it used to. Most socialist oriented people now fall into this category. The Congress Party, AAP and all political parties other than those allied to the BJP fall into this class. Institutions like the JNU and many others founded during the years that the Congress was in power fall into this classification. It stands for those who believe that Muslims should be pampered. This is an important point. NDTV, Barkha Dutt and some others fall into this category. Please note that as per this definition, Liberals do NOT believe in the equality of all religions but that Islam and perhaps Christianity are superior to Hinduism. People who dare to criticise the army are also called 'Liberal' Deification of the armed forces is an important prerequisite for not being a Liberal. Feminists and those who believe in equality of women are also classified as LiberalI may be treading on quicksand here but I get the feeling that people outside the Hindi speaking belt of North India and parts of East and West are more likely to be tarred with the 'Liberal' brush. This is also applicable to those who do not subscribe to 'traditional Indian values' such as Vegetarianism and Cow Protection.The astonishing thing is how rapidly these feelings have built up after the BJP has swept into power. They were obviously latent and festering below the surface. I have often said that secularism, gender equality and other such 'liberal' values are actually alien implants. They were fostered by Nehru, Gandhi and the Congress Party at the time of independence as these luminaries were essentially products of a Western sensibility. It may be argued that by imposing these concepts the country was able to put a lid on fisiparous tendencies that may have torn the fledgling country apart. That is the sympathetic view. The contrary viewpoint is that such ideas essentially went against the grain of the Indian ethos and it would only be a matter of time before they crumbled.
Today the genie is out of the bottle. By allowing the majority community to express their sense of grievance against centuries of foreign dominance, PM Modi has unleashed forces that may be beyond his control. In the best case they may find expression in a form of 'soft' Hindutva that may be beneficial in reforming some of the worst ills of our society. It may also help to curb the growth of militant Islam and correcting some of the gross injustices that were perpetrated in the name of religion such as the destruction of hallowed temples and places of learning. In its more virulent form we could see lynchings and mob action that are anathema in a modern society. We could also see regressive tendencies in the arts, gender inequality and rewriting of history gaining ground.
I have enormous faith in the ability of of our country to self correct and to absorb extreme opinions. This has been demonstrated over the centuries. One hopes, therefore, that the middle ground will prevail and perhaps some day soon, true liberals will regain their place under the sun.
One would imagine that such a person would be regarded positively by most people. The rage and scorn that is heaped on 'liberals' in India today is therefore surprising to say the least. In order to understand this phenomenon one needs to:
Understand the connotations that the word 'liberal' has acquired beyond the dictionary definition.Analyse what emotions these interpretations evoke amongst the public to see why 'liberals' are so reviled in our country.So what has 'liberal' come to mean in India? Here is my view in no particular order:
Liberal stands for westernised in terms of education and use of the English language for communication. If you are reading this blog you are possibly a liberal but not necessarily! It stands for left leaning thinkers. In general the word 'left' has also acquired a wider meaning than it used to. Most socialist oriented people now fall into this category. The Congress Party, AAP and all political parties other than those allied to the BJP fall into this class. Institutions like the JNU and many others founded during the years that the Congress was in power fall into this classification. It stands for those who believe that Muslims should be pampered. This is an important point. NDTV, Barkha Dutt and some others fall into this category. Please note that as per this definition, Liberals do NOT believe in the equality of all religions but that Islam and perhaps Christianity are superior to Hinduism. People who dare to criticise the army are also called 'Liberal' Deification of the armed forces is an important prerequisite for not being a Liberal. Feminists and those who believe in equality of women are also classified as LiberalI may be treading on quicksand here but I get the feeling that people outside the Hindi speaking belt of North India and parts of East and West are more likely to be tarred with the 'Liberal' brush. This is also applicable to those who do not subscribe to 'traditional Indian values' such as Vegetarianism and Cow Protection.The astonishing thing is how rapidly these feelings have built up after the BJP has swept into power. They were obviously latent and festering below the surface. I have often said that secularism, gender equality and other such 'liberal' values are actually alien implants. They were fostered by Nehru, Gandhi and the Congress Party at the time of independence as these luminaries were essentially products of a Western sensibility. It may be argued that by imposing these concepts the country was able to put a lid on fisiparous tendencies that may have torn the fledgling country apart. That is the sympathetic view. The contrary viewpoint is that such ideas essentially went against the grain of the Indian ethos and it would only be a matter of time before they crumbled.
Today the genie is out of the bottle. By allowing the majority community to express their sense of grievance against centuries of foreign dominance, PM Modi has unleashed forces that may be beyond his control. In the best case they may find expression in a form of 'soft' Hindutva that may be beneficial in reforming some of the worst ills of our society. It may also help to curb the growth of militant Islam and correcting some of the gross injustices that were perpetrated in the name of religion such as the destruction of hallowed temples and places of learning. In its more virulent form we could see lynchings and mob action that are anathema in a modern society. We could also see regressive tendencies in the arts, gender inequality and rewriting of history gaining ground.
I have enormous faith in the ability of of our country to self correct and to absorb extreme opinions. This has been demonstrated over the centuries. One hopes, therefore, that the middle ground will prevail and perhaps some day soon, true liberals will regain their place under the sun.
October 13, 2017
The Gas Chamber
There have been too many articles written about the pollution levels in Delhi. Much analysis has been done about the causes and the possible solutions. The purpose of this blog is to examine various possibilities and suggest some solutions.
The causes of extreme pollution in Delhi are well known. The following list is in no particular order and it may also not be completely exhaustive.
Stubble burning in the adjoining states of Punjab, Haryana, and UPSmall fires used for heating in winter using coal or woodFireworks Burning of leaves and other refuse in DelhiConstruction dustRoad dustVehicular pollutionIndustrial pollution caused by factories and power plantsDomestic cooking using coal or woodThe first three are largely seasonal and start building up from around October. The confluence of cold weather and festivals around that time add to a lethal mix that chokes the citizens of Delhi during the period October - February. Winter rains bring a little respite in January but this period is the worst from a pollution point of view.
Finding solutions has not been easy. Here are some thoughts:
Stubble Burning: Very simply, farmers need to be persuaded to stop burning stubble. This has several angles. Paddy was harvested manually in the old days leaving only a short stubble that could be easily plowed in. With the introduction of mechanical harvesting the stubble length has increased and it is not easy to plow. The additional cost of plowing has become unviable given the low margins that farmers are getting these days. Clearly, this is a multidimensional problem. It also involves several states with different political dispensations. The Centre and the Delhi Govt will have to work together to propose a viable package comprising of incentives and penalties that are practical and enforceable to make this happen.Small Fires: To be prohibited and strictly enforced by the Delhi Administration. Fireworks: Unfortunately the ban by the Supreme Court has taken on a political/religious hue. Clearly the citizens of Delhi cannot afford the luxury of unbridled use of fireworks as a method of celebration. In my view, the use of fireworks by private individuals and organisations should be prohibited (this includes weddings, festivals of all religions etc.) In lieu of this one may suggest public fireworks displays on Diwali and New Year.Burning of leaves and refuse: To be prohibited and strictly enforced by the Delhi Administration. Construction Dust: This is a big contributor to pollution. Builders routinely flout all laws including dumping of building material so that it blocks the road. There is no attempt to restrict or eliminate dust. Again this needs strict enforcement by the Delhi Administration.Road Dust - Vacuum cleaning by mechanical means is essential.Vehicular Pollution.
Clearly, Delhi can not afford to have more and more vehicles on its roads. The total cost of ownership of a vehicle has to go up dramatically. One time tax must be increased and so must parking charges. Illegal parking should result in heavy fines and confiscation of the vehicle. New registrations should be allowed only if the owner can provide proof that he has parking available.
PUC certificates must be strictly enforced and fines should be enhanced for non compliance. There are already restrictions on usage of old vehicles and these must be enforced.
The entry of trucks into Delhi is a sore point. After years of neglect the KMP expressway is still nowhere near completion. The railways have failed miserably in providing a cost effective and efficient alternative to long distance transport by road. All these issues need to be tackled on a war footing
The Odd Even scheme is a good thing but only for short periods of time when pollution levels are peaking. This is an emergency measure.Industrial pollution can be controlled by strict compliance. Again the Delhi Administration should take strict action.Domestic Cooking using wood or coal: This is largely practiced by BPL families or slum dwellers. Free availability of kerosene at reasonable rates and small cylinders of LPG can help to curb the problem.The other problem has been an objective metering and feedback on pollution levels. Here again the measurements have been coloured by politics. There is no single agency or reading that is available that everyone believes in.
If the Government is serious about curbing pollution in Delhi it should set up an empowered task force led by a Senior Bureaucrat which has representation from all agencies involved at State Level from Punjab, Haryana, UP and Delhi. The task force should have a mandate for at least a 5 year period and should report periodically to the Environment Minister Concerned at the Centre and the CMs of the States involved. Their reports should also be published in the press.
Unfortunately for us, we tend to focus on something only when there is a crisis. Public memory is short and once winter is over it is business as usual. We need a sustained drive to mitigate the curse of air pollution in Delhi.
No politics please.
The causes of extreme pollution in Delhi are well known. The following list is in no particular order and it may also not be completely exhaustive.
Stubble burning in the adjoining states of Punjab, Haryana, and UPSmall fires used for heating in winter using coal or woodFireworks Burning of leaves and other refuse in DelhiConstruction dustRoad dustVehicular pollutionIndustrial pollution caused by factories and power plantsDomestic cooking using coal or woodThe first three are largely seasonal and start building up from around October. The confluence of cold weather and festivals around that time add to a lethal mix that chokes the citizens of Delhi during the period October - February. Winter rains bring a little respite in January but this period is the worst from a pollution point of view.
Finding solutions has not been easy. Here are some thoughts:
Stubble Burning: Very simply, farmers need to be persuaded to stop burning stubble. This has several angles. Paddy was harvested manually in the old days leaving only a short stubble that could be easily plowed in. With the introduction of mechanical harvesting the stubble length has increased and it is not easy to plow. The additional cost of plowing has become unviable given the low margins that farmers are getting these days. Clearly, this is a multidimensional problem. It also involves several states with different political dispensations. The Centre and the Delhi Govt will have to work together to propose a viable package comprising of incentives and penalties that are practical and enforceable to make this happen.Small Fires: To be prohibited and strictly enforced by the Delhi Administration. Fireworks: Unfortunately the ban by the Supreme Court has taken on a political/religious hue. Clearly the citizens of Delhi cannot afford the luxury of unbridled use of fireworks as a method of celebration. In my view, the use of fireworks by private individuals and organisations should be prohibited (this includes weddings, festivals of all religions etc.) In lieu of this one may suggest public fireworks displays on Diwali and New Year.Burning of leaves and refuse: To be prohibited and strictly enforced by the Delhi Administration. Construction Dust: This is a big contributor to pollution. Builders routinely flout all laws including dumping of building material so that it blocks the road. There is no attempt to restrict or eliminate dust. Again this needs strict enforcement by the Delhi Administration.Road Dust - Vacuum cleaning by mechanical means is essential.Vehicular Pollution.
Clearly, Delhi can not afford to have more and more vehicles on its roads. The total cost of ownership of a vehicle has to go up dramatically. One time tax must be increased and so must parking charges. Illegal parking should result in heavy fines and confiscation of the vehicle. New registrations should be allowed only if the owner can provide proof that he has parking available.
PUC certificates must be strictly enforced and fines should be enhanced for non compliance. There are already restrictions on usage of old vehicles and these must be enforced.
The entry of trucks into Delhi is a sore point. After years of neglect the KMP expressway is still nowhere near completion. The railways have failed miserably in providing a cost effective and efficient alternative to long distance transport by road. All these issues need to be tackled on a war footing
The Odd Even scheme is a good thing but only for short periods of time when pollution levels are peaking. This is an emergency measure.Industrial pollution can be controlled by strict compliance. Again the Delhi Administration should take strict action.Domestic Cooking using wood or coal: This is largely practiced by BPL families or slum dwellers. Free availability of kerosene at reasonable rates and small cylinders of LPG can help to curb the problem.The other problem has been an objective metering and feedback on pollution levels. Here again the measurements have been coloured by politics. There is no single agency or reading that is available that everyone believes in.
If the Government is serious about curbing pollution in Delhi it should set up an empowered task force led by a Senior Bureaucrat which has representation from all agencies involved at State Level from Punjab, Haryana, UP and Delhi. The task force should have a mandate for at least a 5 year period and should report periodically to the Environment Minister Concerned at the Centre and the CMs of the States involved. Their reports should also be published in the press.
Unfortunately for us, we tend to focus on something only when there is a crisis. Public memory is short and once winter is over it is business as usual. We need a sustained drive to mitigate the curse of air pollution in Delhi.
No politics please.
October 1, 2017
The Metropolitan Curse
Shanghai is one of the four direct-controlled municipalities of China and the most populous city proper in the world with a population of more than 24 million as of 2014. - Wikipedia
A municipality (simplified Chinese: 直辖市; traditional Chinese: 直轄市; pinyin: zhíxiáshì), also translated as direct-controlled municipality (formally, municipality directly under the central government, or province-level municipality), is the highest level of classification for cities used by the People's Republic of China. These cities have the same rank as provinces, and form part of the first tier of administrative divisions of China. - Wikipedia
RankCityState or union territoryGDP per capita
(nominal)[1]GDP per capita
(PPP)[2]1DelhiNational Capital Territory of Delhi$3,580$12,7472MumbaiMaharashtra$1,990$7,0053ChennaiTamil Nadu$1,870$6,4694HyderabadTelangana$1,430$5,0635BangaloreKarnataka$1,420$5,0516KolkataWest Bengal$1,110$4,036
India has some of the largest cities in the world. Unfortunately their growth and development has been held hostage to:The fact that the politicians who rule them derive their power from the rural hinterland - for many years Maharashtra (and hence Mumbai) was ruled by the sugar lobby from Southern Maharashtra who has little sympathy with and knowledge of urban development.Large scale migration from the poorer states that leads to overcrowding and a strain on urban facilities The stark difference between the Per Capita GDP of Delhi vs the other major metros is instructive. Many people will complain that Delhi has been unfairly favoured as it is the seat of the Central Government and hence a lot of money has been pumped in compared with the other cities. That may be partially true. However the main point is that it has been an administrative unit of its own as a Union Territory for a long time prior to becoming a state. That provides a sharp focus on Urban Issues and their resolution.
We would be well advised to study the Chinese model where the four largest cities are designated 'direct controlled municipalities' with the same rank as provinces. Translated into the Indian system this would mean making the largest cities into independent states. Inspite of all the bickering between the LG and the CM of Delhi the focus has remained clearly on urban issues. Recent improvements in Healthcare and Education are a case in point. The Delhi Metro's rapid development is in sharp contrast to the snails pace at which the Mumbai Metro is progressing.
Let us not succumb to 'The Metropolitan Curse' that our major cities are descending into. Over 3000 deaths a year on Mumbai's local trains is a frightening and shameful statistic. It's time that we breathed new life into our major cities by liberating them from the clutches of politicians who have no understanding or stake in their welfare.
A municipality (simplified Chinese: 直辖市; traditional Chinese: 直轄市; pinyin: zhíxiáshì), also translated as direct-controlled municipality (formally, municipality directly under the central government, or province-level municipality), is the highest level of classification for cities used by the People's Republic of China. These cities have the same rank as provinces, and form part of the first tier of administrative divisions of China. - Wikipedia
RankCityState or union territoryGDP per capita
(nominal)[1]GDP per capita
(PPP)[2]1DelhiNational Capital Territory of Delhi$3,580$12,7472MumbaiMaharashtra$1,990$7,0053ChennaiTamil Nadu$1,870$6,4694HyderabadTelangana$1,430$5,0635BangaloreKarnataka$1,420$5,0516KolkataWest Bengal$1,110$4,036
India has some of the largest cities in the world. Unfortunately their growth and development has been held hostage to:The fact that the politicians who rule them derive their power from the rural hinterland - for many years Maharashtra (and hence Mumbai) was ruled by the sugar lobby from Southern Maharashtra who has little sympathy with and knowledge of urban development.Large scale migration from the poorer states that leads to overcrowding and a strain on urban facilities The stark difference between the Per Capita GDP of Delhi vs the other major metros is instructive. Many people will complain that Delhi has been unfairly favoured as it is the seat of the Central Government and hence a lot of money has been pumped in compared with the other cities. That may be partially true. However the main point is that it has been an administrative unit of its own as a Union Territory for a long time prior to becoming a state. That provides a sharp focus on Urban Issues and their resolution.
We would be well advised to study the Chinese model where the four largest cities are designated 'direct controlled municipalities' with the same rank as provinces. Translated into the Indian system this would mean making the largest cities into independent states. Inspite of all the bickering between the LG and the CM of Delhi the focus has remained clearly on urban issues. Recent improvements in Healthcare and Education are a case in point. The Delhi Metro's rapid development is in sharp contrast to the snails pace at which the Mumbai Metro is progressing.
Let us not succumb to 'The Metropolitan Curse' that our major cities are descending into. Over 3000 deaths a year on Mumbai's local trains is a frightening and shameful statistic. It's time that we breathed new life into our major cities by liberating them from the clutches of politicians who have no understanding or stake in their welfare.
July 17, 2017
The City by the Sea
One city that has managed to survive its rechristening is Mumbai. One anticipated a precipitous descent into the welcoming folds of a desi identity replete with rambunctious celebrations of festivals and oodles of vada pav.
Alas it was not to be!
A recent visit to Cyber Hub in Gurgaon was instructive. The stylish new restaurant, Burma Burma is the brainchild of an inventive Mumbaikar though the idea of vegetarian Burmese food may have been a nod to its Western India origins. So was the weirdly named Pa Pa Ya - Do you say it without a gap between the syllables or is is a paean to fatherhood? Theobroma followed - clearly Mumbai has a passion for unusual names for their foodie pursuits. Bombaykery, Farzi Cafe, Olive, Indigo.... the list goes on and on. All originated in our very own city by the sea.
And what did Delhi produce? Big Chill and Delhi Heights. Perfect menus and ambiance for wannabe aunties from Janakpuri and worthy successors to the late, lamented Nirulas.
Mumbai was and remains the style leader folks. Whether it's food, theatre, movies, whatever. Dilli is still assi tussi and hello ji.
Alas it was not to be!
A recent visit to Cyber Hub in Gurgaon was instructive. The stylish new restaurant, Burma Burma is the brainchild of an inventive Mumbaikar though the idea of vegetarian Burmese food may have been a nod to its Western India origins. So was the weirdly named Pa Pa Ya - Do you say it without a gap between the syllables or is is a paean to fatherhood? Theobroma followed - clearly Mumbai has a passion for unusual names for their foodie pursuits. Bombaykery, Farzi Cafe, Olive, Indigo.... the list goes on and on. All originated in our very own city by the sea.
And what did Delhi produce? Big Chill and Delhi Heights. Perfect menus and ambiance for wannabe aunties from Janakpuri and worthy successors to the late, lamented Nirulas.
Mumbai was and remains the style leader folks. Whether it's food, theatre, movies, whatever. Dilli is still assi tussi and hello ji.
January 8, 2017
The UP Elections
The upcoming elections in UP are being seen as a referendum of sorts on the Modi government at the halfway mark. Many polls have been conducted and varying opinions have emerged according to the political bent of mind of the pollsters.
Here is my two bits worth.
UP is by far the most populous state of India. The 'voice of the people' will probably be heard most clearly here. This makes it vital for the BJP which has not performed well in previous state elections to do well this time - the national wave was another matter whatsoever.UP has a a very significant Muslim population who will never vote for the BJP (in fact the BJP does not even try for this segment as evident from the free run that loose cannons like Sakshi Maharaj are being allowed to take by the centre just before the polls and in violation of the Supreme Court directives)The BJPs strategy has always been to stir the communal cauldron as elections approach. One sincerely hopes that it does not happen this time and they stick with the gains of demonetization and the elimination of black money as their principal plank.Akhilesh Yadav has emerged as the man to watch. The split in the SP has so far worked in his favour as the corrupt and goonda elements have been sidelined. If he succeeds in eliminating Amar Singh and has some kind of patch up with his father he is on a very strong wicket. I had earlier thought that the party split would work against the SP but it has only strengthened them. Further if Akhilesh succeeds in getting a tie up with the Congress the remaining left oriented vote will also go to him. It will also cement the Muslim vote.Mayawati is lying low this time. She has clearly realised that the SP is in the ascendant and covertly it is better to wish that they win rather than the BJP who will go all out to harrass the regional parties. It may be possible to see an informal seat sharing arrangement appearing behind the scenes - not overtly like the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar but without being explicitly stated.The BJP's belief that demonitization has helped them to gain the confidence of the poor and dalit vote may be misplaced. The UP voter is a canny person who will not readily reveal his true feelings especially to city bred pollsters. The rural hinterland has been hard hit and even the influx of new notes that one has seen recently may not be enough to stem the tide.
As for the sops announced on 31st December, I doubt if anyone can remember what they were.
The Federal structure of our country is a great pillar of pluralism and democracy. The UP elections will show whether the voter prefers regimented convergence or healthy debate.
Here is my two bits worth.
UP is by far the most populous state of India. The 'voice of the people' will probably be heard most clearly here. This makes it vital for the BJP which has not performed well in previous state elections to do well this time - the national wave was another matter whatsoever.UP has a a very significant Muslim population who will never vote for the BJP (in fact the BJP does not even try for this segment as evident from the free run that loose cannons like Sakshi Maharaj are being allowed to take by the centre just before the polls and in violation of the Supreme Court directives)The BJPs strategy has always been to stir the communal cauldron as elections approach. One sincerely hopes that it does not happen this time and they stick with the gains of demonetization and the elimination of black money as their principal plank.Akhilesh Yadav has emerged as the man to watch. The split in the SP has so far worked in his favour as the corrupt and goonda elements have been sidelined. If he succeeds in eliminating Amar Singh and has some kind of patch up with his father he is on a very strong wicket. I had earlier thought that the party split would work against the SP but it has only strengthened them. Further if Akhilesh succeeds in getting a tie up with the Congress the remaining left oriented vote will also go to him. It will also cement the Muslim vote.Mayawati is lying low this time. She has clearly realised that the SP is in the ascendant and covertly it is better to wish that they win rather than the BJP who will go all out to harrass the regional parties. It may be possible to see an informal seat sharing arrangement appearing behind the scenes - not overtly like the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar but without being explicitly stated.The BJP's belief that demonitization has helped them to gain the confidence of the poor and dalit vote may be misplaced. The UP voter is a canny person who will not readily reveal his true feelings especially to city bred pollsters. The rural hinterland has been hard hit and even the influx of new notes that one has seen recently may not be enough to stem the tide.
As for the sops announced on 31st December, I doubt if anyone can remember what they were.
The Federal structure of our country is a great pillar of pluralism and democracy. The UP elections will show whether the voter prefers regimented convergence or healthy debate.
December 15, 2016
Cry, the Beloved Country
“The tragedy is not that things are broken. The tragedy is that things are not mended again.” ― Alan Paton,
Cry, The Beloved Country
It has been two years since the NDA Government swept to power. The Indian electorate, tired of platitudes and procrastination was looking for a change. The was a sense of hope and a a feeling that there would be a quickening of economic and social change. Has it happened? Can we realistically expect change from our moribund, self serving and corrupt system?
'The News' or political commentary as we see it being played out on national TV remains shrill and irrelevant. One is reminded of the Cola wars where the protagonists seemed to advertise to each other to score brownie points while the consumer was largely forgotten. And anyway who really wanted or cared about the sugared, gassy water that both of them sold? The analogy can be stretched to breaking point. Perhaps the only saving grace is that we are spared the nightly harangues of Arnab Goswami at least for now.
The latest drama on demonitisation is wending its way in public consciousness. From a sense of delight to frustration to resignation, all the drama of a Bollywood potboiler are playing out before us from November 8th. Dramatic accusations by Rahul Gandhi about corruption are met with barely concealed yawns by most people. Parliament is disrupted again! This time by the treasury benches! Tell us something that can make waiting in intolerable lines tolerable. It is as if that a dark ennui has gripped the entire nation. Enough of this theatre of the absurd!
Indians are patient people. For millennia we have endured rapacious rulers, landlords and oppressors of every ilk. Corruption and hafta are ingrained in our blood. For long we have thirsted for a Messiah who would lift our poverty stricken masses from the desperate poverty that has enslaved us for generations.
We are a forgiving people too. We elect and reelect the same people who betray us repeatedly. Living embodiments of the Stockholm syndrome.
How long can all this go on? Political and Democratic Institutions are not holy cows anymore if someone can with the stroke of a pen make the most far reaching and disastrous economic policy move in the history of the country (and perhaps the world) without any consultation, without any expert help, with abysmal planning and no fall back options.
Where are we headed? There is a sense of confusion and stasis that threatens to overwhelm us. Does anyone have any answers?
It has been two years since the NDA Government swept to power. The Indian electorate, tired of platitudes and procrastination was looking for a change. The was a sense of hope and a a feeling that there would be a quickening of economic and social change. Has it happened? Can we realistically expect change from our moribund, self serving and corrupt system?
'The News' or political commentary as we see it being played out on national TV remains shrill and irrelevant. One is reminded of the Cola wars where the protagonists seemed to advertise to each other to score brownie points while the consumer was largely forgotten. And anyway who really wanted or cared about the sugared, gassy water that both of them sold? The analogy can be stretched to breaking point. Perhaps the only saving grace is that we are spared the nightly harangues of Arnab Goswami at least for now.
The latest drama on demonitisation is wending its way in public consciousness. From a sense of delight to frustration to resignation, all the drama of a Bollywood potboiler are playing out before us from November 8th. Dramatic accusations by Rahul Gandhi about corruption are met with barely concealed yawns by most people. Parliament is disrupted again! This time by the treasury benches! Tell us something that can make waiting in intolerable lines tolerable. It is as if that a dark ennui has gripped the entire nation. Enough of this theatre of the absurd!
Indians are patient people. For millennia we have endured rapacious rulers, landlords and oppressors of every ilk. Corruption and hafta are ingrained in our blood. For long we have thirsted for a Messiah who would lift our poverty stricken masses from the desperate poverty that has enslaved us for generations.
We are a forgiving people too. We elect and reelect the same people who betray us repeatedly. Living embodiments of the Stockholm syndrome.
How long can all this go on? Political and Democratic Institutions are not holy cows anymore if someone can with the stroke of a pen make the most far reaching and disastrous economic policy move in the history of the country (and perhaps the world) without any consultation, without any expert help, with abysmal planning and no fall back options.
Where are we headed? There is a sense of confusion and stasis that threatens to overwhelm us. Does anyone have any answers?
November 18, 2016
The Demonisation of Cash
The Indian Government, either under the influence of homespun economists or perhaps marijuana is attempting the most radical economic transformation in the history of India. The elephant is being made to dance upon a thimble.
Enough has been said both for and against the scheme by far more erudite thinkers than this blogger. The purpose of this blog is to speculate on the far reaching changes in people's psyche that may come about as a result of this experiment. To clarify, 'people' in this blog are not the fat cats, multi billionaires or even the upper middle class. My concern is for the much reviled Aam Aadmi.
People's attitude towards cash will change dramatically. So far it was a friend, someone (or something) that you needed for your daily life. It was the most needed when you were sick or for joyous occasions like your daughter's wedding. Indian housewives squirreled away part of their household budgets every month to save for a rainy day. Now a lot of people will view cash with some trepidation. It might become worthless paper at any time. Some overzealous bureaucrats are already talking of periodic demonitisation almost like an enema that a constipated person needs to cleanse his colon. What is the consequence of this change in attitude? Will it foster a greater propensity to spend? Will it bring down India's famed savings rate - one of the highest in the world? Will it fuel movement towards more faithful friends - property or gold? Being bitten by a faithful dog is not a pleasant experience. India is collectively going through that experience.
After the incredible exercise of opening millions of new 'Jan Dhan' bank accounts, the Aam Aadmi is suddenly faced with the bewildering feeling that he cannot withdraw his own money! In that case will he not wonder whether the money was his in the first place or whether the State has first right to it. In the old days in some parts of rural India, Brahmins or Kshatriyas had the first right over a lower caste women on her wedding night. In the same way, if you will pardon the dubious analogy, the State seems to have the first right over your hard earned money and can regulate how you can access it and eventually dictate how you can spend it. Will it result in a decreased faith in the banking system? Will the Aam Aadmi believe in future that his money is secure?
The whole exercise of demonitisation is being touted as an act of patriotism and nationalistic spirit with the eventual objective of ferreting out black money that is really being held by a few people. This sounds good to start with but is rapidly losing it's sheen as people's patience wears thin in endless lines. As an aside it's fortunate that the Government did this in November. In June there would have been a revolution within a week. It will not take long for the Aam Aadmi to figure out that while he may feel patriotic and nationalistic, none of the 'fat cats' are being impacted. There is not a single case of a rich person being arrested for possessing black money. In the end even if the exercise works, how will the Aam Aadmi be impacted? Will prices come down? Will bribe taking end? Will counterfeiting end? Will he stop being harassed by constables demanding hafta? The victory, at best, will be an intellectual one. In real terms there is nothing for the common man to hang onto. Will this result is an unwillingness to participate in further social experimentation? Will he lose faith in democratic norms and a leadership that pushes him into impossible situations?
Success or failure of such extreme economic experiments may be measurable in monetary terms. The psychological and social impact will be much more far reaching. I really wonder whether the Government has thought through such issues before jumping into implementation of such a complex scheme.
Enough has been said both for and against the scheme by far more erudite thinkers than this blogger. The purpose of this blog is to speculate on the far reaching changes in people's psyche that may come about as a result of this experiment. To clarify, 'people' in this blog are not the fat cats, multi billionaires or even the upper middle class. My concern is for the much reviled Aam Aadmi.
People's attitude towards cash will change dramatically. So far it was a friend, someone (or something) that you needed for your daily life. It was the most needed when you were sick or for joyous occasions like your daughter's wedding. Indian housewives squirreled away part of their household budgets every month to save for a rainy day. Now a lot of people will view cash with some trepidation. It might become worthless paper at any time. Some overzealous bureaucrats are already talking of periodic demonitisation almost like an enema that a constipated person needs to cleanse his colon. What is the consequence of this change in attitude? Will it foster a greater propensity to spend? Will it bring down India's famed savings rate - one of the highest in the world? Will it fuel movement towards more faithful friends - property or gold? Being bitten by a faithful dog is not a pleasant experience. India is collectively going through that experience.
After the incredible exercise of opening millions of new 'Jan Dhan' bank accounts, the Aam Aadmi is suddenly faced with the bewildering feeling that he cannot withdraw his own money! In that case will he not wonder whether the money was his in the first place or whether the State has first right to it. In the old days in some parts of rural India, Brahmins or Kshatriyas had the first right over a lower caste women on her wedding night. In the same way, if you will pardon the dubious analogy, the State seems to have the first right over your hard earned money and can regulate how you can access it and eventually dictate how you can spend it. Will it result in a decreased faith in the banking system? Will the Aam Aadmi believe in future that his money is secure?
The whole exercise of demonitisation is being touted as an act of patriotism and nationalistic spirit with the eventual objective of ferreting out black money that is really being held by a few people. This sounds good to start with but is rapidly losing it's sheen as people's patience wears thin in endless lines. As an aside it's fortunate that the Government did this in November. In June there would have been a revolution within a week. It will not take long for the Aam Aadmi to figure out that while he may feel patriotic and nationalistic, none of the 'fat cats' are being impacted. There is not a single case of a rich person being arrested for possessing black money. In the end even if the exercise works, how will the Aam Aadmi be impacted? Will prices come down? Will bribe taking end? Will counterfeiting end? Will he stop being harassed by constables demanding hafta? The victory, at best, will be an intellectual one. In real terms there is nothing for the common man to hang onto. Will this result is an unwillingness to participate in further social experimentation? Will he lose faith in democratic norms and a leadership that pushes him into impossible situations?
Success or failure of such extreme economic experiments may be measurable in monetary terms. The psychological and social impact will be much more far reaching. I really wonder whether the Government has thought through such issues before jumping into implementation of such a complex scheme.
October 12, 2016
Blood and Iron
“In September 1862, when the Prussian Landtag was refusing to approve an increase in military spending desired by King Wilhelm I, the king appointed Bismarck as Minister President and Foreign Minister. A few days later, Bismarck appeared before the Landtag's Budget Committee and stressed the need for military preparedness. He concluded his speech with the following statement: [1] "The position of Prussia in Germany will not be determined by its liberalism but by its power [...] Prussia must concentrate its strength and hold it for the favourable moment, which has already come and gone several times. Since the treaties of Vienna, our frontiers have been ill-designed for a healthy body politic. Not through speeches and majority decisions will the great questions of the day be decided—that was the great mistake of 1848 and 1849—but by iron and blood(Eisen und Blut)." This phrase was popularized as the more euphonious Blut und Eisen ("Blood and Iron"), and became symbolic of Bismarckian Machtpolitik ("Power politics")” – Wikipedia
Ever since independence, India has generally been thought of as a ‘soft state’. The precise meaning of the phrase may be elusive but it carries with it connotations of pacifism and compromise. The well-known Hindi song symbolises this feeling:
दे दी हमें आज़ादी बिना सब्र बिना ढालसाबरमती के संत तूने कर दिया कमल
Pandit Nehru, inspite of his legendary temper was essentially a pacifist (some would say pusillanimous) when it came to affairs of state especially international diplomacy. His string of errors – Taking the Kashmir dispute to the UN instead of pushing the Pakistani invaders out in 1947, the craven capitulation on the Indus waters treaty, Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai etc are too well known to bear repetition here. Having said that, they set the tone for India’s foreign policy for many years to come. Indira Gandhi displayed remarkable fortitude when it came to the liberation of Bangladesh though some may say that it was more due to the courage and temperament of Sam Manekshaw and his army that Pakistan was vanquished in 3 weeks. After that, the sad debacle of returning 90,000 POWs without extracting anything in return was another nail in the coffin with respect to our fraught relations with Pakistan. Even since then talks and talks about talks, Aman ki Aasha and other such frivolity has dominated the discourse with our fractious neighbour. We have amply lived up to our pacifist and timid reputation over the last 70 years.
There are unmistakable signs that we are now headed into another era – perhaps best described by Bismarck as the era of ‘Blood and Iron’. There are 6 main indications of this:
1. Deification of the Armed Forces
The armed forces in India have played a vital role in protecting the country. However, it has at all times been a role subservient to the civilian and political dispensation. Further the military has refrained from playing a part in civilian administration unlike in many other countries in our neighbourhood. Overall the military has played a sterling role in our society and has earned the well-deserved respect of all of us. However, what is happening now is deification. It is considered unpatriotic to question any decision taken by the armed forces or to suggest even remotely that there could be weaknesses, inefficiency or corruption within the ranks.
2. Centralisation of Leadership
Centralisation is taking place at two levels. In the first instance the central government is clearly gaining power. Non BJP states are feeling the heat. The AAP, in particular, who have been vocal and personal in their criticism of the central government have been systematically hounded by a tame LG. The ‘Mahagathbandhan’ in Bihar as well as the SP in UP has also felt the heat. ‘Co-operative Federalism’ exists only in name. The second way is centralisation within the BJP. The PM and Amit Shah really call all the shots. The others are party loyalists who toe the leaders’ line. Centralisation is not necessarily a bad thing. It makes for speed of decision making and strong implementation. The main issue is lack of diversity and dissent.
3. Weakening of the Judiciary
It is interesting to see how the judiciary is being openly challenged these days by either very rich and powerful bodies or by the political establishment. There are several examples of this:a. Karnataka is in open defiance of the Supreme Court on the Cauvery waters issue. In fact, the Court has been reduced to negotiation and virtually pleading with the state to release water as per its direction.b. The BCCI is also in open defiance of the Supreme Court’s diktat via the Lodha committee to implement much needed reforms.c. The appointment of judges via the collegium approach has been questioned by the Government and has been going back and forth ever since.
4. Polarisation of the Media
It was quite clear in the run up to the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 that the BJP and its allies would win by a handsome margin. This has led to a sharp polarisation amongst the media. Many journalists saw which way their bread was buttered and proceeded to ally themselves closely with the ruling administration. This group has acquired the status of the ‘storm troopers’ of the Government. They are more loyal than the king and browbeat and bulldoze those that do not subscribe to their views. The others have been branded as ‘presstitutes’ and it has almost become a traitorous act to subscribe to their views.
Similarly, the social media space has also got overrun with self-righteous trolls who react violently to the slightest hint of anti-establishment activity.
It has been said that the space for dissent is shrinking and while it is not possible to quantify such things it does appear that attitudes have hardened and the nature of the discourse has become more vicious.
5. Majoritarianism
Terms like ‘sickular’ ‘aaptards’ ‘presstitutes’ and so on have found their way into normal social discussions. ‘Pandering to the minorities’ is another theme that is common to this discourse. The latter seems to indicate that good Muslims are those who can recite the Vedas, take part in Hindu rituals, mind their own business and are preferably vegetarian. It’s another matter that actors like Nawazuudin Siddiqui are prevented from acting in the Ramlila. ‘Go to Pakistan’ is another war cry of these energetic brethren. Deciding what you can eat, controlling women and other such medieval practices are gaining ground. The irony that the Taliban practices similar restrictions would be totally lost on this crowd.
6. Muscular Foreign Policy
The good thing is that PM Modi essentially runs foreign affairs on his own. He has taken the onus on himself to create space with neighbouring countries and with the USA and to a certain extent with China and it has paid dividends. The muscularity was on display with the ‘surgical strikes’ conducted recently by the armed forces. The wide ranging, perfectly executed operation has sent shock waves down the spines of Pakistan. It has added an unknown dimension to our foreign policy and one that Pakistan will struggle to deal with. The ongoing isolation that Pakistan faces is also unnerving for them. One does not know exactly what the end point will be with this ‘offensive defence’ strategy propounded by the enigmatic Ajit Doval but it has given Indians something to cheer about. I also suspect that the separatists sitting in Srinagar would also not like to end up on the losing side. There is some evidence that some of them may be reconsidering their open pro Pakistan stance. Certainly youth are turning out in droves for army and police recruitment and some solace can be taken from the ‘rescue’ of an army man when he met an accident by the local people.
What do all of the signs and portents mean? Many people said that the 2014 elections were a watershed, a turning point in India’s history. The Congress party is a shadow of its former self and the multifarious scams and inanity of Rahul Gandhi ensure that it will not be a contender for the foreseeable future. The AAP experiment has been thwarted by the Centre to a large extent in Delhi and they can only hope that they fare better in Punjab and possibly Goa. Bihar is reverting to jungle raj with Lalu calling the shots and bizarre policies like prohibition being implemented arbitrarily. With all this it is becoming increasingly evident that PM Modi’s party (I deliberately do not use the word BJP) is here to stay for quite some time. While elections and the democratic process will continue, we will witness a new phase in Indian polity. It will be a harder, more harsh and unforgiving model. Foreign policy will become increasingly pragmatic and less idealistic. Domestic society will harden its views on ‘the other’ and conformity will be the order of the day. Judges may become more pliable and the army more assertive. We will see significant material progress and profit will no longer be a bad word. Those who protest against the ‘saffronisation’ of history will be quelled and a new discourse will emerge with a muscular Hinduism at its core. Old Nehruvian socialist imperatives will be lost in a surge of eager young Indians wanting to find their place in the sun.
The sun has finally set on the British Empire and old India. We are hurtling to a brave new world which will hopefully be far better than the one we have left behind.
Ever since independence, India has generally been thought of as a ‘soft state’. The precise meaning of the phrase may be elusive but it carries with it connotations of pacifism and compromise. The well-known Hindi song symbolises this feeling:
दे दी हमें आज़ादी बिना सब्र बिना ढालसाबरमती के संत तूने कर दिया कमल
Pandit Nehru, inspite of his legendary temper was essentially a pacifist (some would say pusillanimous) when it came to affairs of state especially international diplomacy. His string of errors – Taking the Kashmir dispute to the UN instead of pushing the Pakistani invaders out in 1947, the craven capitulation on the Indus waters treaty, Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai etc are too well known to bear repetition here. Having said that, they set the tone for India’s foreign policy for many years to come. Indira Gandhi displayed remarkable fortitude when it came to the liberation of Bangladesh though some may say that it was more due to the courage and temperament of Sam Manekshaw and his army that Pakistan was vanquished in 3 weeks. After that, the sad debacle of returning 90,000 POWs without extracting anything in return was another nail in the coffin with respect to our fraught relations with Pakistan. Even since then talks and talks about talks, Aman ki Aasha and other such frivolity has dominated the discourse with our fractious neighbour. We have amply lived up to our pacifist and timid reputation over the last 70 years.
There are unmistakable signs that we are now headed into another era – perhaps best described by Bismarck as the era of ‘Blood and Iron’. There are 6 main indications of this:
1. Deification of the Armed Forces
The armed forces in India have played a vital role in protecting the country. However, it has at all times been a role subservient to the civilian and political dispensation. Further the military has refrained from playing a part in civilian administration unlike in many other countries in our neighbourhood. Overall the military has played a sterling role in our society and has earned the well-deserved respect of all of us. However, what is happening now is deification. It is considered unpatriotic to question any decision taken by the armed forces or to suggest even remotely that there could be weaknesses, inefficiency or corruption within the ranks.
2. Centralisation of Leadership
Centralisation is taking place at two levels. In the first instance the central government is clearly gaining power. Non BJP states are feeling the heat. The AAP, in particular, who have been vocal and personal in their criticism of the central government have been systematically hounded by a tame LG. The ‘Mahagathbandhan’ in Bihar as well as the SP in UP has also felt the heat. ‘Co-operative Federalism’ exists only in name. The second way is centralisation within the BJP. The PM and Amit Shah really call all the shots. The others are party loyalists who toe the leaders’ line. Centralisation is not necessarily a bad thing. It makes for speed of decision making and strong implementation. The main issue is lack of diversity and dissent.
3. Weakening of the Judiciary
It is interesting to see how the judiciary is being openly challenged these days by either very rich and powerful bodies or by the political establishment. There are several examples of this:a. Karnataka is in open defiance of the Supreme Court on the Cauvery waters issue. In fact, the Court has been reduced to negotiation and virtually pleading with the state to release water as per its direction.b. The BCCI is also in open defiance of the Supreme Court’s diktat via the Lodha committee to implement much needed reforms.c. The appointment of judges via the collegium approach has been questioned by the Government and has been going back and forth ever since.
4. Polarisation of the Media
It was quite clear in the run up to the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 that the BJP and its allies would win by a handsome margin. This has led to a sharp polarisation amongst the media. Many journalists saw which way their bread was buttered and proceeded to ally themselves closely with the ruling administration. This group has acquired the status of the ‘storm troopers’ of the Government. They are more loyal than the king and browbeat and bulldoze those that do not subscribe to their views. The others have been branded as ‘presstitutes’ and it has almost become a traitorous act to subscribe to their views.
Similarly, the social media space has also got overrun with self-righteous trolls who react violently to the slightest hint of anti-establishment activity.
It has been said that the space for dissent is shrinking and while it is not possible to quantify such things it does appear that attitudes have hardened and the nature of the discourse has become more vicious.
5. Majoritarianism
Terms like ‘sickular’ ‘aaptards’ ‘presstitutes’ and so on have found their way into normal social discussions. ‘Pandering to the minorities’ is another theme that is common to this discourse. The latter seems to indicate that good Muslims are those who can recite the Vedas, take part in Hindu rituals, mind their own business and are preferably vegetarian. It’s another matter that actors like Nawazuudin Siddiqui are prevented from acting in the Ramlila. ‘Go to Pakistan’ is another war cry of these energetic brethren. Deciding what you can eat, controlling women and other such medieval practices are gaining ground. The irony that the Taliban practices similar restrictions would be totally lost on this crowd.
6. Muscular Foreign Policy
The good thing is that PM Modi essentially runs foreign affairs on his own. He has taken the onus on himself to create space with neighbouring countries and with the USA and to a certain extent with China and it has paid dividends. The muscularity was on display with the ‘surgical strikes’ conducted recently by the armed forces. The wide ranging, perfectly executed operation has sent shock waves down the spines of Pakistan. It has added an unknown dimension to our foreign policy and one that Pakistan will struggle to deal with. The ongoing isolation that Pakistan faces is also unnerving for them. One does not know exactly what the end point will be with this ‘offensive defence’ strategy propounded by the enigmatic Ajit Doval but it has given Indians something to cheer about. I also suspect that the separatists sitting in Srinagar would also not like to end up on the losing side. There is some evidence that some of them may be reconsidering their open pro Pakistan stance. Certainly youth are turning out in droves for army and police recruitment and some solace can be taken from the ‘rescue’ of an army man when he met an accident by the local people.
What do all of the signs and portents mean? Many people said that the 2014 elections were a watershed, a turning point in India’s history. The Congress party is a shadow of its former self and the multifarious scams and inanity of Rahul Gandhi ensure that it will not be a contender for the foreseeable future. The AAP experiment has been thwarted by the Centre to a large extent in Delhi and they can only hope that they fare better in Punjab and possibly Goa. Bihar is reverting to jungle raj with Lalu calling the shots and bizarre policies like prohibition being implemented arbitrarily. With all this it is becoming increasingly evident that PM Modi’s party (I deliberately do not use the word BJP) is here to stay for quite some time. While elections and the democratic process will continue, we will witness a new phase in Indian polity. It will be a harder, more harsh and unforgiving model. Foreign policy will become increasingly pragmatic and less idealistic. Domestic society will harden its views on ‘the other’ and conformity will be the order of the day. Judges may become more pliable and the army more assertive. We will see significant material progress and profit will no longer be a bad word. Those who protest against the ‘saffronisation’ of history will be quelled and a new discourse will emerge with a muscular Hinduism at its core. Old Nehruvian socialist imperatives will be lost in a surge of eager young Indians wanting to find their place in the sun.
The sun has finally set on the British Empire and old India. We are hurtling to a brave new world which will hopefully be far better than the one we have left behind.
