Robert R. Peecher Jr.'s Blog, page 7

50K words in 30 days

The last time I checked the word count I was just over 53,000 words into Jackson Speed at the High Tide. I might be up to about 55,000 now.

I’ve been working on this fourth novel in the Jackson Speed Memoirs for more than a year, pausing periodically to finish up other projects (including Jackson Speed on the Orange Turnpike which was published in May).

The previous three Speed novels were all between 65,000 and 70,000 words, and generally that is my target length when I’m writing. However, I believe High Tide – which takes up Jackson Speed’s involvement in the three day battle of Gettysburg – is going to turn out to be a good bit longer.

At 53,000 words, I am only up to about 3 p.m. on July 2, 1863 (the moment the second day’s fighting started). Granted, about half of what I have written so far involves the month or so leading up to the war, but I suspect I’m still at least 30,000 words from finishing, maybe more than that. It seems like there is a lot of story left to tell, and I could easily see this book approaching 100,000 words.

My intention was to have the book ready for my editor well before the end of the year (maybe by the end of October), and at my current pace I suppose that’s still possible. Because life and work and kids’ soccer games tend to get in the way, I suspect it could be next spring before I’m done.

I’ve never liked working exclusively on one project. Instead, I like having lots of irons in the fire at one time. So to keep plenty of irons heating up, today I made the decision to go ahead and start the fifth book in the Jackson Speed Memoirs in November.

Among the writing community the NaNoWriMo challenge is a pretty big deal. This is a challenge where you set a goal of writing a 50,000-word novel in 30 days. Lots of authors do it with varying degrees of success.

I’m not big on gimmicks, but if you know the story of my first Jackson Speed novel, then you know that I wrote the thing at a frantic pace. I skipped meals, wrote at work, stayed up all night writing and in 28 days I’d knocked out a 65,000 word novel.

But when I did that I’d never heard of NaNoWriMo, and I did it from mid-May to mid-June of 2012 so it didn’t count for the National Novel Writing Month.

Since first finding out about it, I’ve thought often about maybe trying to participate NaNoWriMo, and I’ve decided now that I am going to. I signed up today for NaNoWriMo 2014, and I am going to start getting some of the preliminary research done for the fifth Jackson Speed novel so that come November I can hit the ground running.

My goal is to put myself in a position where next spring I can publish back-to-back Jackson Speed novels. I’m really excited about it, and I hope it doesn’t turn into a complete disaster where I can’t get anything done – that’s as possible as being able to finish two novels at roughly the same time.

But, the challenge is made doubly difficult because all through November AMC will be airing new episodes of The Walking Dead, and obviously TWD will take precedence over Jackson Speed (or anything else).

Help a writer out, review books you enjoy at Amazon

Which of these books are you going to read? The one on the left with zero recommendations or the one on the right that nine out of 10 people rated at 4 or 5 stars?

I try to check daily, sometimes hourly, to see if anyone has reviewed one of my books at Amazon.com. But obviously I am not checking with enough frequency. For eight days I’ve had a 4-star review posted at the Amazon.co.uk site and I didn’t even know it!

In fairness, Jean and I were out of town last week for a couple of days celebrating how happy she’s been these last 19 years being married to me. Then we were gone to a soccer tournament all weekend. We came home and – surprise! – we actually had to work at our paying jobs. Then yesterday I was gone all afternoon visiting my friend Howard Sills.

It’s been a busy week, so if I was slow to check reader reviews I might be forgiven. The review was left on El Teneria.

It’s a 4-star review and the reviewer says he finished El Teneria and bought the follow-up novel, Blood Tubs, and I’m grateful whenever anyone enjoys one of my books enough to buy the next one. In fact, that’s as good a review as I could possibly ask for.

The review is titled “Flashmanesque” and the reviewer states that El Teneria is “very much a take on GM Fraser’s Flashman novels. It is not as good as they are.”

This is true. I’ve written here before that I hate the thought of Flashman fans reading Jackson Speed novels and comparing the two. Jackson Speed is not Harry Flashman and I’m certainly not George MacDonald Fraser.

I do think the Speed books are entertaining, and the history is solid. I’ve heard from a couple of Flashman fans who have really enjoyed the Jackson Speed Memoirs, and I’ll be honest, if a Flashman fan says that Jackson Speed comes in second to Flashman, I’m not disappointed by that. Even I say that Speed comes in second to Flashman!

I’ve only had one person tell me that he thought the Jackson Speed Memoirs are better than Flashman, and I’m very dubious that he says this out of a sense of loyalty to our longstanding and close personal friendship.

This sort of leads me into another something I have been trying to write on my blog but wasn’t sure the right way to say it without appearing self-serving.

I spend a lot of time reading blogs from other indie writers. Some of them are legitimately out there trying to make a living on their books, or supplement their living with their book sales.

I’m just screwing around, enjoying myself and having fun writing stories that entertain me. I love it when my stories entertain others, and I love it when readers leave a comment on my blog or send me an email or post a reader review (particularly a positive one, though I have this odd masochistic side that feels validated whenever I get a poor review).

But on behalf of those writers out there who are seriously trying to make a buck, if you find a book you really enjoy, please give a thought to leaving a 4- or 5-star reader review at Amazon. It doesn’t have to read like an English Lit grad student’s thesis paper, nor does it have to be particularly long or detailed.

You can offer potential readers who are looking through reader reviews a summation of the plot. You can briefly mention some things you liked about the novel or the author’s writing style. You can just simply say that you enjoyed the book. Just write whatever feels appropriate to you.

My favorite thing to see in a reader review is when a reader says they will read the sequels – if it’s a series – or other books by the author. That’s gold for an indie writer, because it tells people who are considering whether or not to buy a book that the book was good enough to get a reader to come back for more.

You see, the conventional wisdom that I read over and over from writers who offer marketing tips is that the thing that helps drive book sales is more reader reviews. The more reader reviews they have (especially positive reviews), the more likely other people will be willing to give an unknown writer a chance.

Personally, I think there are other things readers could do that would better help indie writers. If you’ve read a book by a writer and you’ve enjoyed the book, tell people. Post it on Facebook or tweet it on Twitter or tell people face-to-face that you enjoyed a book. How do you think Fifty Shades of Gray did so well? I haven’t read it, but I’m pretty sure it had nothing to do with the writing. Instead, it had to do with women telling other women, “I just read this book and you should read it, too.”

I actually heard someone make a recommendation to a couple of other women about Fifty Shades of Gray.

I can tweet links to my books thousands of times, but none of those tweets will have the same impact as someone who has read my books saying to someone else, “You know, these books aren’t half bad.”

As far as negative reviews go, I’ll say this: Obviously if you read a book and you don’t like it for one reason or another, you certainly can leave a negative review.

But I would ask that you don’t leave a 1-star review if you bought a Kindle book and something corrupted the download and you didn’t get the book. That’s a problem to take up with Amazon customer service (and they will get you the book) and not something over which the author has any control. A 1-star review for a failed download punishes the author unnecessarily.

I realize that for people who are writing books – especially the people who are depending on their income from books to pay bills – we eat, breathe and sleep this stuff. Reader reviews or sharing a book you’ve enjoyed on social media, these are things that we are desperate for and think about all the time.

But for the average reader, who doesn’t give any thought to the challenges in trying to market a book and only wants to know when the next one in the series will be released, these aren’t necessarily things that you’re thinking about.

So, if you find a writer you enjoy and you want to encourage them and help them, I would ask that you give some thought to promoting their work. It doesn’t have to be a lot. A two or three sentence review, a post or two on social media, maybe a word to a friend – and then you can feel really good about yourself, because you’ve probably just really helped an indie writer and maybe turned some folks on to a great new book.

Thrillwriting interview

I was interviewed yesterday by Fiona Quinn who runs the immensely valuable Thrillwriting blog where she helps “writers write it right.”

Fiona wanted to talk to me about being an investigative reporter, and since I’ve had some experience along those lines, I thought maybe I could provide her with some insight that might be worthwhile to novelists seeking to toss a newspaper reporter into their story.

Fiona provides all sorts of useful information to novel writers. She offers some primers on the use of weapons, she shows video of how easy it is to get out of duct tape handcuffs (if your plotline includes someone being tied up in duct tape, your plot had also better include that person freeing themselves with relative ease) and she’s even got a post about using tampons as survival tools.

She also regularly interviews experts in a variety of fields, and these folks offer insight into what their jobs are like (hence, me being interviewed about what it’s like to be an investigative reporter).

She provides a good bit of information about homicide scenes, investigative techniques from law enforcement and things of that nature.

Certainly I am no expert, but in my career I’ve been to a lot of murder scenes, covered a lot of murder trials and gone along with sheriff’s deputies, investigators and especially with Sheriff Howard Sills as they solved crimes, and I can say that everything I’ve read on Fiona’s blog corresponds accurately with the things I’ve witnessed.

She offers good information.

So, if you’re a writer of crime fiction or thrillers – or even if you just have an interest in law enforcement procedures – Thrillwriting is a great blog to bookmark and visit regularly. The information Fiona provides will keep you from looking like an idiot.

I’m really grateful to Fiona for reaching out to me and giving me the opportunity to talk a little about being an investigative reporter, and I hope the information becomes useful to other writers. I believe the interview is scheduled to appear on her blog late in September.

She did ask me one question that sort of threw me during the conversation. She asked about movies I’ve seen or books I’ve read where the hero was an investigative reporter, and she wanted to know what they got right or got wrong.

I don’t watch that many movies, and I can’t remember ever reading a book where the hero was a reporter. But now that the interview is over, three movies come to my mind: Deadline – USA with Humphrey Bogart (honestly, this is how I picture myself as I go about my day); The Paper with Michael Keaton (I cannot tell you how many times I’ve wanted to stack up a couple of bundles of newspapers in my editor’s office and fire my revolver into the bundles); and finally All the President’s Men with Robert Redford and Dustin Hoffman as Bernstein and Woodward unraveling Watergate.

In general, and forgiving the dramatic flairs necessary to make the films exciting and appealing to movie-goers, I would say that those three movies probably correspond fairly closely with the kinds of things I’ve encountered in my career.

However, I will say this, I have never once – in anything other than a joke – ever heard anyone yell, “Stop the presses!”

But I did once have an editor threaten to kill me if a city audit did not show evidence of theft of government money, and I think she was fairly serious. There are a lot of things I miss about working for Judy Bailey.

Anyway, if you’re a writer interested in using an investigative reporter in your story and you’d like to contact me and ask me questions, please feel free. I’d be happy to answer questions for anyone who has an interest.

An Apologia: Sex in the Jackson Speed novels

If I were really writing explicit books, the covers might look something like this.

Frequently when someone talks to me about a Jackson Speed novel the first topic they bring to my attention is the sex contained within.

A friend of mine started reading the first novel, commented on the “steamy scenes” and then jokingly asked if the novel was autobiographical. The question left both of us uncomfortable.

I’ve never thought the sex in the books was particularly explicit or shocking, and it’s been a surprise to me the number of people who first remark about the sex in the books.

I think it’s probably true that oftentimes a reader will walk away from a story or a book with a completely different take on it than what the writer intended, and I certainly never intended for readers to focus on the sex in the Jackson Speed Memoirs.

For me, the sex in Jackson Speed was always an integral part of the plot but not particularly memorable. Nearly every adventure that Jackson Speed encounters is prompted by some illicit dalliance with a married woman or a sexy spy or such. This is a necessary tool for me to employ, because Speed is such a coward that he would never get into any of his adventures if not thrust there by a romantic escapade or lured there by a lewd lady.

Consider if Jackson Speed were simply a coward and not an adulterer: There would be no enraged Uriah Franks (El Teneria), no trip to Baltimore (Blood Tubs), no tangential journey to Chancellorsville (Orange Turnpike), no life-long feud with Dan Sickles (Da Pont Diamond). Our hero would likely be nothing more than a blacksmith in Scull Shoals, Georgia, and what entertainment could possibly come from those memoirs?

And so the sex was only ever intended as a device to find our rascally hero embroiled in his plots.

At the same time, the novels are held out to be the memoirs of an aged Jackson Speed, and I thought it was a fun thing to have the old man greedily recalling his conquests – the pinched nipples, the heaving bosoms, the round bottoms with a pink palm print.

But I never really thought the sex was explosive or depraved or graphic.

Still, readers often bring up the sex first – and sometimes nothing else.

It would be nice, periodically, if someone wanted to discuss the well-researched history.

“I never knew that Stonewall Jackson’s glorious victory at Chancellorsville was achieved by the chance happening of Fitzhugh Lee finding a path in the woods from which he could see Hooker’s exposed flank,” a reader might say.

“Oh, yes!” I would respond. “Had it not been for Fitzhugh climbing that hill, Stonewall would have attacked along the Orange Plank Road. Likely he would have still achieved a victory, but he would have been attacking a more entrenched position and it would never have been such a rout!”

But it may be that my novels are more graphic and more depraved than I realize because my sensibilities are rougher than those of polite society. I blame it all on the desensitizing I experienced in Mr. Kirkland’s social studies class in eighth grade.

When I remember back so many years ago to the eighth grade, I remember two things. I had a terrible crush on my science teacher Ms. Hosch and I was exposed to one of the most graphic, explicit sex books that any 13-year-old could possibly endure.

It was the spring of our eighth grade year when one of the girls in the class brought a book that was – if I remember correctly – stolen from her mother. The book was the ironically titled “Wife Turned On” by Heather Brown. It was nothing more than one explicit, pornographic story after another of a woman who had sex with everyone except her husband.

We eighth graders in Mr. Kirkland’s class had removed the cover of the book and for what I remember as weeks (though it may have only been days) passed that book around the class. The sex scenes – which were many – were marked with turned-down corners and we passed the book around class so that everyone had the opportunity to quickly find and read them. My goodness. It was a lewd and graphic introduction to a topic most of us knew very little about.

So perhaps if you’ve not had the benefit of reading the marked pages of “Wife Turned On” in the back of Mr. Kirkland’s eighth grade social studies class, Jackson Speed does seem a bit raw to you. For me, however, the novels are a very tame tale of a scoundrel’s historical misadventures and are chocked full of interesting tidbits of history and fun exploits.

As it is, I must simply accept the fact that I have created a sex monster, and it is far too late to put the fiend back in his cage. And if it is the explicit sex that keeps readers coming back for more, then I’ll continue writing about the pinched nipples, slapped bottoms and insatiable spies.

But please, don’t ask me face-to-face if the stories are autobiographical. The question – if not the answer – will leave us both embarrassed.

 

I love to hear from Jackson Speed fans! If you don’t want to ask me any personal questions about my sex life, please feel free to send me a message here:

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Jackson Speed in the United Kingdom

For the past three months sales of the Jackson Speed books have been higher and more consistent than they ever were previously.

Jackson Speed used to sit unnoticed on virtual bookstore shelves for weeks, sometimes a couple of months, with no sales. Those were frustrating and dispiriting days as I lamented my lack of readership and obviously poor noveling abilities.

But since May, I’ve been selling books regularly, and the real surprise is the rate at which Jackson Speed is selling to Kindle readers in the United Kingdom. I’ve noted before that the first Jackson Speed on the Orange Turnpike paperback sold in Amazon’s UK site, but through June and July better than half my Kindle sales came out of the UK.

It’s still early in August and my sales are continuing to be consistent, but so far I’ve not sold a single Kindle ebook in the United States. All of my sales this month have been out of Amazon’s UK store.

I never expected the books to sell in the United Kingdom the way they are. The protagonist works his way in and out of America’s 19th Century conflicts (mostly with herself), and as a result when I first started writing, the audience I had in mind was strictly an American audience.

I am left to conclude that the reason the Brits are buying the Jackson Speed books is because of the obvious influences George MacDonald Fraser’s Harry Flashman had on Robert Peecher’s Jackson Speed. As I’ve noted before, I am a massive fan of the Flashman novels, and Fraser’s creation was the inspiration for Speed.

I entered the latest Jackson Speed novel in the Reader’s Favorite book contest, and disappointingly (but not surprisingly) I didn’t even make it to the finalist stage. As part of the contest, Reader’s Favorite reviews the book and posts the review on their website.

Though the book received four stars out of five, the reviewer clearly is not a fan of Jackson Speed.

She called him a sociopath!

I feel terrible for poor Jackson Speed. I’ve heard him described as everything from a rascal (my personal favorite, thanks Mandy Stephens!) to despicable, and now he’s “sociopathic.”

From the review: “Jackson Speed has so few redeeming qualities that it didn’t quite leave me laughing.”

Well, as Ol’ Speedy might point out, there are plenty of men with no lack of redeeming qualities who found their way into an early grave while he’s able to enjoy the peace of his sunset years.

So, perhaps the answer to the mystery as to why my books are selling so well in the United Kingdom is simply this: The Brits simply love a sociopath.

Either way, every sale of one of my books is humbling and gratifying. I cannot express how much it means to me. I’m still a long way from making any best seller lists, but when I started writing these novels I wasn’t sure if anyone, anywhere would find them interesting or entertaining. The fact that people do seem to be entertained by them (as demonstrated by the fact that it’s not just El Teneria selling, but all three of the Speed novels) is just overwhelming. It really is.

As I’ve said before, I love to hear from Jackson Speed readers. If you’d like to be added to my list to receive updates about the next Speed book, you can send me a message through the form below. And if you’re one of the Speed readers in the United Kingdom and you’re thinking of sending me a message, I’d love to know how you found the novels.

Also, you’ll want to get added to my email list because when I told my wife that my sales in the United Kingdom were doing very well, she immediately started planning a UK book signing tour. Details on that tour will be available as soon as we can afford it.

Based on my current rate of sales and the 8-day packages she has been able to put together, it appears that the Robert Peecher book signing tour in the United Kingdom will be in about 63 years!

I can’t wait!

 

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Book Review: The Seduction of Sir Gawain by Arthur Wayne Glowka

Arthur Wayne Glowka

Wayne Glowka was one of my English professors at Georgia College. He taught me the History of the English Language and Arthurian Literature and other sundry classes. He loves to tell the story of me walking into class one morning several minutes late with bits of limb and leaf in my hair. He remarked, “You look like you slept in a bush.” I said, “I did.”

Oh, college … how I miss you.

I also worked for Wayne as an intern for the Faculty Research Newsletter.

Over the years we kept in touch, and I’ve always valued this friendship very much. When I worked for the Macon Telegraph and found myself on the GC&SU campus I frequently stopped by his office to say hello.

A couple of years ago Wayne published “The Texiad,” a truly inspired epic poem of the Texas Revolution.

Wayne grew up “in the shadow of the Alamo” and so he grew up with this history. His use of William Zuber as his narrator in “The Texiad” may be one of my favorite things in all of English literature.

He was also my inspiration to self-publish Jackson Speed. Wayne published “The Texiad” about a month before I started writing the first Speed novel. I had no idea what I was going to do with Jackson Speed and his memoirs, but after picking Wayne’s brain a little I decided to self publish through Create Space.

In addition to being a fan of the Texas Revolution, Wayne is also an Arthurian literature scholar, and he’s written a couple of Arthurian romances.

I finally got around to reviewing “The Seduction of Sir Gawain” a week or so ago. I posted the review at Amazon, but I thought I would also post it here.

I am going to say this: Reviewing books written by your former English professor is an intimidating challenge, but especially when he’s the guy who taught you Arthurian literature and the book falls into the category.

Trying to remember after 20 years Spenser and Malory and the Pearl Poet and all their themes and symbolism is difficult enough, but when you throw in the fact that as often as not I was sleeping in the shrubbery prior to class, I can tell you that writing this review was plenty taxing on my old brain.

But all kidding aside, this is a gem of a book. It’s really very funny to see a Knight of the Round Table cast through a modern prism.

Here’s my review:

Glowka’s Gawain: A charming retelling of an old tale

A Cougar Romance

If you agree that “Spenser writ no language” and find Malory’s English archaic and smiting, then surely you must appreciate Arthur Glowka’s retelling of the Arthurian legend of Gawain and the Green Knight.

In “The Seduction of Sir Gawain,” Glowka brings the traditional tale (with a couple of variations) into the modern era with a lovely prose interspersed with subtle humor.

Glowka’s Gawain story exposes the notions of chivalry and virtue to be a little naïve by today’s cynical standards and pokes some fun at the hero’s childlike beliefs. Glowka’s Gawain also falls well short of his own ethical code – falling much shorter than the Gawain of the 14th Century poem credited to the “Pearl Poet.” Nevertheless, in “The Seduction of Sir Gawain,” the Arthurian knight is able to keep his vows intact despite his failings, and in the end is rewarded – in a way – for his virtues.

As in the original Gawain, Glowka’s hero takes the Christmas challenge of the Green Knight at Camelot. The giant Green Knight offers to receive a blow from his own ax if the knight who swings the blade is willing to seek out the Green Knight at the Green Chapel and in a year receive a blow from the Green Knight. Gawain chops off the Green Knight’s head, and the magical creature then picks up his head, reminds Gawain that he must come and find him in a year and rides away.

Gawain leaves Camelot in the autumn to seek out the Green Knight, though he does not know where the Green Chapel is. On Christmas Eve he comes to a castle where he is welcomed and entertained by the Lord Bertilak and Lady Ragnelle. Gawain learns that he is just a morning’s ride from the Green Chapel and so accepts the hospitality of the lord and lady. Gawain also participates in the lord’s games while staying at the castle.

Those familiar with the original tale will know that Glowka’s Gawain goes a good bit farther in besmirching his chivalric honor than the Pearl Poet’s Gawayne. However Glowka’s imagining of the tale is consistent with the traditional Arthurian temptation fables in that the hero’s shortcomings are exposed, penance is made and all turns right in the end.

Even though his hero falls short, Gawain is able through “fairy law” to reclaim his honor. Glowka’s Gawain is left with more than a green sash to wear as a penance for his lack of virtue, but he is also rewarded – of a fashion – for his willingness to make amends.

And though Glowka’s “The Seduction of Sir Gawain” clearly keeps the tradition of the Arthurian temptation fable, it might also fall into the category of a more modern genre, let’s call it the “Cougar Romance.” Surely neither Spenser nor Mallory ever envisaged such a thing.

So much of the Arthurian legend was written in a time when English looked like a foreign language to the modern reader, and those who seek the traditional tales may find themselves disappointed as they attempt to plod through the alliterative, Middle English poems or 15th Century prose of a prisoner. But Glowka makes the traditional tale of Sir Gawain accessible to any reader with a wonderfully charming prose.

Whether you are an Arthurian scholar seeking a retelling of an old tale or are just looking for a good story about one of the Knights of the Round Table, surely you will agree that “The Seduction of Sir Gawain” is a tremendous find.

2014 World Cup Finals predictions

From the start I’ve been predicting a final with Germany and the Netherlands, and I’ve got to say I was terribly disappointed by the Dutch performance in the semifinals game against Argentina.

Germany and Argentina make it to the final. Germany will win.

Vlaar was so good in defending Messi, but in the attack Robben was ineffective and Robin van Persie was asleep offsides.

Both defenses played a strong game, resulting in no goals scored in 90 minutes of regulation and 30 minutes of extra time.

I was not surprised that Germany beat Brazil. I’ve felt all through the tournament that Brazil wasn’t playing that well. I never saw a 7-1 defeat, though. I thought maybe 3-0. Even with Neymar and Thiago Silva, I don’t think Brazil would have performed much better against the Germans.

So that gives us Germany and Argentina in the final and Brazil and the Netherlands playing for third place.

Brazil v. Netherlands

I’ve thought since the group stage that Brazil was not performing well in this World Cup. They’ve been lucky in some instances. Neymar carried them in others. For all the talent and passion Brazil had coming into each game, the passion seemed to carry them through while the talent let them down.

Oscar seems reluctant to take the lead on the field. Neymar is an individual threat, but without him a defense playing against Brazil is able to relax a little.

The Netherlands are the most successful country to never win a World Cup. Playing for third place means something to them. Meanwhile, for the Brazilians who have allowed emotion to overcome them, I think if they give up the first goal they will lose, possibly significantly. The Dutch may well win this thing 4-0 and send Brazil back to the drawing board.

Germany v. Argentina

I’ve been as disappointed in Argentina as I have Brazil. I have seen them possibly going out at any point in the knockout stages. But Argentina has proved me wrong each time. In every match, they’ve not been good but they’ve been good enough. Probably the best game they played was against the Netherlands.

Germany, meanwhile, have only a couple of times really played like you would expect them to, but after playing like you would expect them to against Brazil and winning 7-1, I have to think they will come into the final firing on all cylinders.

Expect a strong German team. Expect the same kind of Germany that played against Brazil.

I see Germany winning 2-0, maybe more. Because Messi is on the field, you might have to expect him to score or create a goal, so maybe it’s 3-1 to Germany. Anyway, I don’t believe Argentina will win this game.

2014 World Cup goes to Germany.

World Cup 2014 semifinals predictions

I only missed one game in the quarterfinals. I saw Belgium beating Argentina. I still think Belgium should have won that game.

That kid from the Simpsons did a great job of coming in for the PKs in the Holland v. Costa Rica game (is it just me or does Tim Krul look just like Nelson Muntz?).

But I was correct about the Brazil v. Colombia game – don’t miss it! The ref has deservedly received a lot of criticism for not pulling cards in the first half and letting so many poor tackles go, but I really enjoyed watching this game. It was wide open and just a lot of fun. That’s tough on Neymar to have such a bad injury and miss the rest of the tournament, but the reports so far are that he will make a full recovery, and we should all be glad about that. Neymar is a young kid with amazing skill, and whether you’re a fan or not, it would be tragic to see all that promise come to an end because of a poor challenge.

So here are my semifinal predictions:

Germany v. Brazil (7/8 4 p.m. est)

Neymar is injured and Thiago Silva is suspended from the game based on two yellow cards. Brazil has found a way through so far, and maybe the momentum gained from playing the World Cup at home is all it takes to push Brazil through to the final.

I don’t think so.

In my initial bracket I had Brazil going out in the Round of 16. I didn’t see them getting past Chile because, I think, Brazil have played poorly. To get past Chile, Brazil had to take it to penalty kicks, and there, all bets are off. Anything can happen in a PK shootout, and what happened in that PK shootout was Julio Ceasar came off his line and blocked a shot.

I expected Brazil to beat Colombia because Colombia had not had a rough path to the quarterfinals.

Now Brazil will play the toughest opponent they’ve faced so far, and they’ll do it without their goal scorer Neymar and their captain Silva.

Even with Neymar and Silva, I would not expect Brazil to advance past Germany.

Germany have been good throughout the World Cup. They haven’t been great in most of their matches, but they have been steady and composed. They have done enough.

Expect Germany to have a stellar performance.

The Germans took third place in 2006 and 2010. Do not expect them to settle for playing for third place again. This is a very, very good team. They will score goals. They will defend like a solid wall.

It will be a good game (we’re talking about the semifinals of the World Cup). Brazil and Germany play very different styles of soccer, and it will be fun to watch the disciplined Germans against the creative Brazilians, but ultimately I see Germany going on to the final and Brazil playing Argentina for third place.

Holland vs. Argentina (7/9 4 p.m. est)

The other semifinal match is just like the first. The disciplined Dutch against the creative South Americans. But you saw this match up when the Netherlands played Costa Rica. The Costa Ricans never had anything in the game. Possession, shots – it all went to the Dutch.

Granted, Costa Rica defended well and played Holland to a draw and the game had to be decided by penalty kicks, but you’ve got to believe with three shots off the post and one curling off a defender the Dutch were unlucky not to finish that game in regulation time.

You also saw a preview of this match when Argentina played Belgium. Argentina bested Belgium by a goal, but Belgium was never out of the game.

The Netherlands must finish better than they have been. They won’t be able to waste opportunities, and a one-goal advantage will never be enough until the referee blows the final whistle because Messi is always a threat.

But I predicted a Germany-Netherlands final for World Cup 2014, and I have seen nothing to make me back off of that.

The Americas have been very good in this World Cup. Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, Mexico, the United States – all underdog nations that performed better than expected and went father than expected.

Brazil and Argentina, though certainly not underdogs, went farther than I thought they would go. I never felt that Brazil was playing up to their level of talent, but they have managed to find a way through at each point, and that’s all that matters. Argentina must be grateful for Messi.

But I fully expect to see a European final again this year.

Quarterfinal predictions

Well, that Round of 16 shot holes all through my bracket!

I was wrong with Brazil, Colombia and Belgium. I should have just picked group winners to advance and I’d have been fine (for the first time ever, all 8 group winners advanced).

Here’s what I got wrong: Brazil v. Chile (I had Chile to win); Colombia v. Uruguay (I had Uruguay to win); and USA v. Belgium (I had the United States advancing).

I conceded up front that Brazil and Colombia could very well win their games. It was tough to know how Uruguay would react without Suarez (and I didn’t expect them to crumble). Chile took Brazil to PKs, so I was justified in thinking they might go, but Julio Ceasar was great (and got away with coming off his line during the PK shootout).

The other one I got wrong was the USA v. Belgium game, and let’s be honest, I couldn’t be an Alexi Lalas and go against my country. Besides, I really did think we would beat Belgium, even though I acknowledged that they are an outstandingly talented team.

Here are my predictions for the Quarter Finals:

France v. Germany (7/4 at noon est):

France have been great through the World Cup. They’ve scored a lot of goals and done really well. If you’re a French supporter, you have every reason to have belief and be excited.

Germany advance.

Brazil v. Colombia (7/4 at 4 p.m. est):

You don’t want to miss this game! This should be great. Colombia are riding a wave of confidence and storybook success. Can they do it? Can they make it to the final? Probably not. They’ve played Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan and Uruguay. If the USMNT had this path, we’d be in the quarter finals, too.

Brazil, meanwhile, should be the absolute favorites for this World Cup. They are unquestionably one of the top footballing nations in the world, consistently producing some of the greatest players every generation. And this team in particular has huge skill. But something about Brazil just doesn’t feel right to me. They don’t seem to be connecting the way they should be. Brazil will go out before the final, and Colombia may do it to them. It will be a good, close game. Ultimately, I think Brazil advances, but they have been so unconvincing in all their previous matches that it’s possible for a big upset.

Argentina v. Belgium (7/5 at noon):

Argentina have Messi, but the question I’ve been asking through this whole World Cup is whether or not Messi is enough. Sergio Aguero, who is a top goal scorer for Manchester City, has been suffering through injuries and hasn’t been there for Argentina.

As I said before the Ro16 game against the US, Belgium has immense talent. Barring unforeseen events over the next four years, I see Belgium winning the next World Cup in Russia. These guys are a young and hugely talented team. I thought their youth would be a disadvantage against the US and we could get through them, but the fact is the Belgians had great composure and saw that game through to the end. Late substitutions with fresh legs in extra time (Rom Lukaku) helped, but the few threats the US offered were dealt with. Can Kompany stop Messi? Maybe not. But can Messi score enough to compensate for Belgium’s offense that is sure to hit the back of the net?

This will be a good game. I give it to Belgium.

Netherlands v. Costa Rica (7/5 at 4 p.m.):

Costa Rica came out tops from the Group of Champions. They helped to send Italy and England home. Then they bested Greece in the Ro16. But let’s be honest about it. Italy weren’t all that great. England were awful. And Costa Rica beat Uruguay before Suarez returned. And Greece in the R016? I didn’t think Greece should have made it to the Round of 16 anyway.

Netherlands looked shaky against Mexico, and it came down to a controversial call at the end of the game for the Dutch to get a PK and win. Nevertheless, Holland came into this World Cup with something to prove after losing to Spain in the finals four years ago, and they are proving it. 5-1 v. Spain. 3-2 v. Australia. 2-0 v. Chile. 2-1 v. Mexico.

I like Costa Rica and have enjoyed watching them play, but I suspect the composure of the Dutch will overcome.

Look for Netherlands to advance.

While my bracket has been chipped away here and there, I have said all along this goes to Germany and the Netherlands in the final. I’ve picked the Netherlands to win it, but I’m starting to lean toward Germany. The Dutch were shaky against Mexico. They lacked pace and purpose for much of the game.

But through the World Cup, with a lot of games in a few days, top teams are going to have bad games. The best teams are the ones that win bad games in the knockout stages. The Netherlands did that.

I still see Germany and Holland at the end with an Oranje victory.

US Ro16 loss is hearbreaker, but we’ll be back

The World Cup 2014 Round of 16 was the most heartbreaking thing since the World Cup 2010 Round of 16 when Ghana, in extra time, knocked the US out of the World Cup.

It was a tough game to watch on Tuesday.

Fabian Johnson went out early, forcing Klinsmann to use an early substitution. In a 120-minute game, an inability to get fresh legs on the field when your opponent does can hurt very badly.

Then there was Wondolowski’s missed opportunity.

Extra time.

De Bruyne’s goal. Rom Lukaku’s goal. It was all so bad. I was gutted. Devastated. When I chanted, “I believe that we will win!” I was serious. I did believe.

When I grow up I want to be just like Kyle Beckerman. I’ve already stopped washing my hair.

But then Julian Green scored one to bring us back! And everything was USA momentum! The entire game shifted as the US started to press hard. I’ve seen countless late equalizers. And if you’re Jurgen Klinsmann would you want to go to PKs against Belgium with Tim Howard having the kind of day he was having?

Of course you would!

When the fourth official held up his sign signaling 1 minute of stoppage time, Klinsmann and I both had the same reaction.

Klinsmann on the sideline could be clearly heard on ESPN all across America: “One minute? Why is one fucking minute?”

He was right, too. You’d had substitutions and injuries and we should have had a minimum of three minutes of stoppage time at the end of the second extra time. Maybe we should have had five minutes.

But it was one minute and that minute went by pretty fast.

In my alternate reality we got three minutes, scored the equalizer and Tim Howard blocked every single Belgian PK. Except Lukaku’s. In my alternate reality, Lukaku shot his over the post.

But in the real world, we beat our way out of the Group of Death and it took everything we had to do it. Did you see Clint Dempsey in the Belgium game? He looked like me after I’ve been playing for 15 minutes – exhausted. Clint didn’t have much in it.

Tim Howard had an amazing game, but Tim Howard is an amazing keeper. It’s common for him to make unbelievable saves. It’s just not common for him to have to make so many in one game.

There were other promising things you can take away from the game against Belgium: DeAndre Yedlin was great. If we’d had anybody who could have connected with his crosses we’d have won that game. People keep talking about Julian Green being the future of US soccer – and he may be – but I’d say look to Yedlin. There’s a kid who has the skill to take us far.

And hats off to Kyle Beckerman who was outstanding in this World Cup. I will forever be a Beckerman fan, and I get chills thinking about what a dream come true this was for him.

I have been a fan of Graham Zusi for a long time, and I think he did very well.

Jermaine Jones was also outstanding. DaMarcus Beasley is always, always, always solid, but in the game against Belgium he was extra special. He and Tim Howard both deserved to be rewarded with a win in that game.

Our back four have taken a lot of criticism. Geoff Cameron with the whiffed ball against Portugal, and Matt Besler, Omar Gonzalez and even Beasley for allowing Belgium to take so many shots and force Howard to make so many saves.

I’ll say this about our defense: They had a good tournament. They’re not as good as some of the teams they played against, and they were forced to work very, very hard because we did not possess the ball. It’s tough playing on a defense that is constantly on its heels and getting battered. You clear the ball away and look up and it’s coming right back at you.

I know it’s hard – I’ve played in those defenses many times.

You can blame the midfield for not possessing, but the midfield is too deep because they have to come back to help the defense.

The fact is, we weren’t good enough. Germany and Belgium were both better teams. We played them hard and created chances and frustrated them, but we just simply weren’t as good as they were.

 

I’m bullish on the USA.

There’s a lot of talk about why the US doesn’t do well internationally in soccer. The book Soccernomics has a great section about this and, I think, is dead on right. If you’re interested, check that out.

Ultimately, though, I think you’ve got to believe that it’s coming.

I believe that we will win.

In qualifying for the World Cup, we were the best among the CONCACAF teams, winning our group with room to spare.

It may take another four years or eight years, but soccer players in America are getting better. Right now we are developing top players, and with the MLS continuing to grow, they are getting more opportunities to play at a high level. I think we’ve passed the time when top American players had to look overseas for opportunities.

Yedlin plays for the Sounders. Zusi and Besler both play for Sporting Kansas City. Omar Gonzalez is at LA Galaxy. Beckerman is at Real Salt Lake. Brad Davis is at the Houston Dynamo. Wondo is at the Earthquakes.

These MLS guys played against some of the best players in the world the past couple of weeks. They took Belgium to extra time, held Germany to a single goal, tied a game with Portugal that we should have won and beat an African powerhouse that we have never beaten before.

For the past five Gold Cups, the USMNT has either won or come in second.

I’m a fan of the USMNT. I watch most all of their games – friendlies and CONCACAF and qualifiers. I love the USMNT, and I think Klinsmann (whose contract takes him through the next World Cup) is doing great things with this team.

Our time will come.

I

I believe

I believe that

I believe that we

I believe that we will win!