Bryce Moore's Blog, page 17

Current Artificial Intelligence Thoughts

I keep going to talks and mini-conferences about artificial intelligence, and my thinking on the subject continues to evolve. Not that I’m really changing my mind on any part of it completely, but rather that as I dwell on the subject more and more, I see aspects I hadn’t thought of previously. So I thought it would be useful (to me, at any rate) to take some time and pin down where, exactly, I stand on the subject today.

First of all, I want to stress that I think the continuing refinement of AI is inevitable and and will happen far faster than anything our legal system is used to dealing with. I’ve seen some efforts made to restrict what companies can use as a corpus to develop their generative text, but I don’t realistically see any of that working. As long as the information is out there, someone’s going to use it. With so much of it involved in the process, it will be extremely difficult to prove any specific instance, and by the time the courts worked their way through any litigation, whatever specific instance was in question will have become obsolete.

Of course, people have also been proposing other ways to throttle the use of AI. In education, they’re discussing putting in stipulations that AI can only be used for brainstorming purposes, or not at all. Some students have been caught using AI, and the consequences could be severe, but again, I see all of that as something that will be viewed as quaint and naive within the next year or two. AI is just getting too refined, too quickly, for anyone to hope to keep up. Within five years, I expect there will be no real way to tell the difference between something done by a human and something generated by a computer. Part of me wants to say that five year estimate is too soon, but honestly, a bigger part of me thinks it will arrive much more quickly than five years.

I have heard others dismiss generative text as something that really doesn’t matter long term, as it’s not a computer thinking at all. It’s just parroting off what the likeliest sequence of words could be. However, as I’ve thought about it, I see it as a significant step toward real intelligence. Once a computer can be trained to come up with complex answers to live questions, it can refine its actual understanding of both those answers and those questions. So again, I expect us to quickly begin to have to ask what really constitutes intelligence. AI will be better when it comes to anything data-based. Where it will fall short is on questions of morals, philosophy, and evaluating accuracy of information–especially any information that’s relatively recent.

What stands in its way? One question I continue to have is how generative text will respond when more and more of its corpus is based on text already generated by AI. So many people are turning to it to write things, the amount of AI generated text could quickly overwhelm the amount of human-generated text. That could create a feedback loop that could do affect AI in unforeseen ways. But I expect they’ll find ways to account for that, and they’ll account for ways to make it “smarter” when it comes to telling what’s true and what isn’t. Really, AI just needs to get to the point where it can admit when it doesn’t know something. If it could do that, then many of the consistency/reliability issues go away.

However, by and large, I come back to my “AI is inevitable” belief, and anyone trying to stand in its way is just going to get steamrolled. So what does that mean?

I think we need to come to the realization as a society that just because AI can do something, doesn’t mean it’s going to be the best thing that can be done. Yes, AI will get to the point where it can create a book or a movie or a piece of art on any subject you want, in any style you want, in a matter of moments. If you want to watch a Muppet adaptation of The Taming of the Shrew, it will be able to do that. (Though there might eventually be ways someone figures out to still handle copyright or trademarks, there will be ways to get around those. I expect it to only really matter when a company tries to do it and make money off it. This will further be muddied by international laws, as if a company doesn’t like the laws in one nation, they can just move to one with different laws.)

But the thing is, I’m not sure how much people will actually want to watch that Muppet Taming of the Shrew version. Why? Because the one AI makes for me will be different than the one it makes for you. And yes, you could try to spit in the eye of copyright and publish your “best” version and try to have a lot of people watch it, but good luck doing that, since as soon as something becomes popular, a thousand people will try to leech off its popularity. In many ways, I expect to see a meme-ification of the arts. When I grew up, there was a very finite number of pop culture sources. Today, with so many different things clamoring for attention, more and more people know absolutely nothing about the show or book you are completely crazy about.

And that is the problem I see AI not being able to surmount. It will be able to make anything, and because it can make anything, “anything” will no longer be relevant or worthwhile. My guess is that the relationship between the artist and their audience will become much more vital. People won’t want to watch just any Muppet version of the Taming of the Shrew. They’ll want to watch the one done by Jim Henson Studios, and they’ll still be willing to pay for that right. Yes, anyone could write a book in the style of Brandon Sanderson, but people won’t care about just any rando-brando-sando work. They’ll want to read the one he wrote himself. Authenticity will become increasingly important.

I expect there will be new genres or types of art that directly involve AI and lean into it, but even then, I expect specific artists to rise to prominence, and so people will care about the AI art that was specifically made by them.

Going beyond things like art, I think people will be gravitated toward doing what they want, and not what they’re told. Right now, students are using AI to get out of doing assignments. A creative writing professor mentioned to me last week that he had a student use AI to write a poem for his poetry class. The only possible way that makes any sense at all is if the student in question has no real desire to learn to write poetry at all. They just want to get credit for the class so they can do whatever it is they actually want to do. Education is seen as a hurdle, and as long as you can jump it, it doesn’t matter what means you use to jump it.

Really, much of what’s happening that’s problematic stems from people who are using AI to do the thing they don’t want to do, which will let them do the thing they actually want to do. Many people don’t really want to write a book. They want to sell a book and make money off it. In these cases, AI works like a ghost writer for them, and that’s something that’s been happening for years. People don’t want to pay for an actual artist to make them a graphic or take a picture. They just want something to put on the cover of their book or attract eyeballs to their website, so they offload the task to AI. People don’t actually want to learn anything at college. They just want the degree so they can get the job they think they want.

At some point in time, we’re each going to have to ask ourselves what we actually want, because AI will be able to do most things as good or better than how we could do them. Of course, since what many/most people actually want is just to be able to make enough money to support themselves and/or their family, this turns out to be a much more complicated decision than it might seem at first. If we get to the point where AI can do most things better than we can, then what in the world is it that we are actually doing? For companies, it will be cheaper to just have AI do almost everything, sooner or later. Taken to the next step, AI could get to the point where it basically runs all of our society, or where it becomes society.

I don’t think it’ll come to that. I think we’ll start to see there are things we really want humans doing, thank you very much. While it would be lovely to think we’ll arrive at some utopia where everyone’s needs are met and AI does all the things we never wanted to do anyway, actually arriving at that point may well prove impossible.

But here’s the thing: this is all just what I’m thinking today. There are so many different things I don’t know about what will happen, that trying to guess what the world will be like even five years from today is increasingly difficult. So in the meantime, I just do what people have always done: the best I can with whatever the situation is today, trying to plan as best I can for an unknown future.

In other words, all of what I have to say can be summed up as “AI is very, very exciting, and very, very terrifying.”

Tomas Update: Prešov

It’s been a bit since I’ve given an update on Tomas, I realized. Let’s see if we can correct that right now, shall we?

Last week, he was transferred from Pilsen and back to Slovakia to a town called Prešov. (It’s pronounced PRESH-oh, more or less.) It’s a city with around 85,000 people, about 2 hours from the border with Ukraine. (And before you ask, the fighting in Ukraine remains all in the eastern part of the country, so this is kind of like if Tomas were in Missouri, and there was fierce fighting going on in South Carolina. He’s fine.

All told, he was in the Czech Republic about four months. He enjoyed his time there, but I know he’s also happy to be back in Slovakia and just worrying about a single language again. His Ukrainian and Czech are both pretty good, however. Still crazy to me that he went and learned three languages on his mission.

We talk to him every Sunday for about an hour and a half on FB Messenger. It’s not the most ideal way to communicate, since often there’s a noticeable lag, but we make do. Usually we have about a half hour with everyone talking together, just to give an update on all the bigger things that happened in the week. Then we split up and talk individually for about 15 minutes each. It’s not exactly enough to get a really good idea of everything that’s been going on.

On the other hand, if we didn’t have that weekly check in, I’m not sure how much we’d really know. Missionaries tend to write more at the beginning of their mission than they do at the end. At least, that’s how it was when I was on my mission. You just get to the point where everything you’re doing feels like the same old same old, despite it being very different from anything your friends and family are doing at home. So it’s still super interesting to them, but to you, it just feels like you’ve already written it all before.

But he’s still doing very well. Enjoying his time out there, meeting a lot of different people, and having memorable experiences. On Saturday he took a trip to a small town just west of Ukraine. There’s a senior missionary couple in his town who are in charge of humanitarian efforts of the church in that part of the country. As part of that job, they go check in with places that the church has been supporting. The couple doesn’t speak much Slovak, so Tomas was there to translate from English to Slovak and Slovak to English for about 2-3 hours. He said it was interesting, but also pretty draining.

I asked him if he’s still playing his violin. The answer was a definite yes, though I’m not sure how overjoyed he is at that. It sounds like he’s played in church pretty much every week for his entire mission. When he went to Prešov, he didn’t even mention he played the violin, hoping to get a bit of a break, but the members there already knew he did, and so they asked him to play right away. So he’s still playing. It’s not that he doesn’t enjoy playing, but if he’s anything like me, there comes a point that you feel like people just take you for granted. I call it being treated like a trained monkey. They know you’re good at something, so they just assume you’re ready at any point in time to do it at the drop of the hat, and they don’t even seem all that grateful. (This is all me talking here, not Tomas. He didn’t say any of this, so I’m 100% projecting.)

Anyway. I did ask him if he might send another letter, and there’s a chance he will, but I wouldn’t bank on it. He’s got another 6.5 months to go. Definitely getting down there.

The Good News is I Didn’t Need a Root Canal

I’m back from my trip to the endodontist. (I’ve decided part of getting older is discovering the need to go to doctors with new names, some of which show up as typos on spell check.) Since I live just south of the middle of nowhere, it took an hour to get there. An hour of driving alone in the car, anticipating a fun root canal.

Not exactly my idea of a good time.

When I got there and was finally being seen, the endodontist went through a few tests. She took new x-rays. She mulled them over. She poked around in my mouth with a sharp pointy thing. (I’ve decided this is part of the allure of being a dentist: getting to poke around in mouths with sharp pointy things.) She used the same pointy thing to dig into the base of my tooth in a way I’d rather not experience again. Then she said, “I’m going to put something cold on it. Let me know if you feel anything.”

Reader, I felt something. A lot of thing. Thankfully it dulled down after the initial jolt, though I can still feel where my gum met the pointy thing.

“Here’s the thing,” she said. Note to anyone going to medical people. Nothing good typically follows this phrase in that context. By saying “Here’s the thing,” you automatically know there’s a thing, and more than anything, you would rather there not be a thing to begin with. But here’s the thing. “Your tooth is cracked, and the crack goes below the bone line. I could do the root canal now, but there’s a good chance after it’s all done and you’ve got the crown, that you need to have the tooth extracted anyway.”

“What are my options?” I asked. Options are good, right?

“You could have it extracted right away and skip the root canal.”

I went with the first choice, because it wasn’t much of a choice. What it means is that my tooth is not out yet. I need to schedule that. They recommend I then get an implant. They drill into my jaw and insert a post, and then attach a fake tooth to that. It sounds awful. Did I mention I’m a baby when it comes to tooth pain?

So . . . yeah. That was my Thursday. How was yours?

A New Lacrosse Player

As of yesterday, we’ve officially added another sport to the family list. Tomas started things off with cross country, nordic, and track. Daniela followed in his footsteps until now, when she left track behind to jump over to the lacrosse team.

Being on a team sport for the first time brings some different territory. For one thing, there’s much more in the way of unfamiliar gear. Daniela spent a while Sunday getting her mouth guard squared away, and she wasn’t exactly a huge fan of it once it was ready. (She came upstairs with it in and said, smiling, “I don’t know about this sport, guys.” Mouth guards do, indeed, look pretty goofy if you’re just wearing them around the house. I reminded her everyone else would be looking goofy right there with her, so it wouldn’t feel goofy at all. She countered by reminding me she’d have to have eye gear on as well.

Hey. I’m not the one who chose to play lacrosse.

So why did she do it? A few reasons. First off, she just wanted to try something new. What she really wanted was a volleyball team, but we don’t have a volleyball team at our high school, so that was a no go. She thought about joining the tennis team for a while, but she has a number of friends on the lacrosse team, and that won her over in the end.

Practice-wise, it doesn’t seem that different from other sports. Lots of after school practices. The big difference is the number of games/events she’ll have: 11 from the middle of April through the end of May, and then I assume there might be playoffs. I know absolutely nothing about the sport except the fact that they throw balls with sticks that have nets at the end. I guess I’ll figure it out, the same way as I figured out cross country and nordic.

This is the first sport we’ve done that really requires hand-eye coordination, which should be a fun thing for Daniela to tackle. It’ll also be the first contact sport, so Daniela’s height and all that time in the gym will pay off in ways you don’t necessarily see in sports like cross country.

Anyway, she’s excited, so I’m excited for her. We’ll see how this goes. Wish her luck!

UK vs American TV Shows

There have been a number of shows that have started out as British series and then been remade for an American audience. While the most famous one of these (The Office) has obviously been wildly successful, I can’t help but wonder why in the world the bulk of them happen. I suppose the wild success of the Office makes it feel to some like anything’s worth a shot. (And for that matter, House of Cards also started as a UK show and was doing great until everything blew up with Kevin Spacey.)

The fam and I have been watching the UK version of Ghosts, which we’ve had a lot of fun with. I knew there was an American version, and Paramount+ apparently thought since we’ve been watching the original, we really ought to see the American. Something about seeing a promo reel that’s chock full of almost exactly the same things, just done with American accents . . . really didn’t work in the moment. It almost felt like an SNL skit. I remember feeling the same way about the American remake of the IT Crowd. It was like a dream where all the same things are happening, but with different people in those roles.

Overall, I just don’t understand the thinking behind the remakes. I mean, if they took Doctor Who and made an American version . . . why? What about a Winnie the Pooh American version, or Mary Poppins for an American audience? Monty Python? Like, what is the thinking behind the attempts? Is it an assumption that Americans don’t like British accents? Or don’t like British humor? I mean, there have been enough successful shows that are British that make it clear such an assumption is off base.

In many instances, the very fact that the show is British is some of what makes it appealing to me. The Great British Baking Show (or Bake Off, depending on what side of the Atlantic you’re on) is charming. Yes, there’s an American version, but . . . I just haven’t seen the need to watch it. Then again, American Idol started as Pop Island in the UK . . .

I don’t know. It seems as more and more shows get watched on streaming regardless of their language, the need for remaking a show for an American audience just becomes more and more questionable. I see no need for an American Squid Game, for example. But then again, it sounds like one’s in the works. (Though granted, it’s a version that’s more an extension of the Squid Game universe, which actually sounds intriguing.)

Maybe it all boils down to the same essentials as any adaptation. If all you’re doing is putting a new coat of paint on something in an effort to make more money, then why even bother? Money grabs are seldom worthwhile from a creative perspective. If you really want to remake something, then take the time to actually do something different with it, and be doing it for a different reason than money. Like, if you see something and feel like you could do something great with it, then go for it.

But doing a simple paint-by-numbers color swap? No thanks.

What’s the Point of Brushing Your Teeth?

Honestly, I’m beginning to question some long held tenets. For as long as I can remember, I knew one thing when it came to dental healthcare: brush your teeth, or else. The “or else” part was always a bit nebulous, but it involved things like cavities, fillings, gum disease, and the dreaded root canal. Not really wanting any of those in my life, I’ve always been quite good about brushing. Yes, flossing has come and gone (though I’ve been flossing regularly for the past long while now), but brushing twice a day has always been there.

The last few weeks, however, my teeth haven’t really been team players. One of them has been protesting loudly whenever I ate something even mildly cold. (Mind you, this didn’t stop me from eating ice cream anyway, so clearly it wasn’t protesting enough.) Another has been complaining about the need to chew day in and day out, occasionally shooting a spike of pain when I’d take a bite right on it, but that’s been a much less frequent occurrence. Not being a fan of pain, I went to the dentist yesterday to get things checked out.

From what I’ve now learned, some teeth just don’t like being cold. There’s no cavities involved. Nothing to fix. They just protest when they get chilly, though you can quiet them down somewhat by using toothpaste for sensitive teeth. So the thing that was causing the most pain . . . doesn’t seem inclined to stop anytime soon.

The thing that causes only intermittent pain? My dentist was much more concerned about that. Before, he’d thought perhaps my tooth was cracking. (Uh oh.) This time, he took a more complete x-ray and was concerned by some slight dark shading at the root of the tooth. He explained this to me, pointing at the x-ray as if I had a clue what I was looking at. I nodded and agreed it seemed like something that might be problematic (because what else am I going to say? I’m not a dentist, though I do appreciate being treated as if I know what subtle gradations in x-rays mean).

So he investigated further. He had me bite down on different parts of the tooth. All was more or less okay. Then he moved on top tapping my teeth with a little mallet, one at a time. My tooth immediately filed a complaint, in triplicate.

Which is how I learned that it’s likely I need a root canal on that tooth.

I’m still going to get another opinion (right before I get said root canal next week), but things don’t look good. I asked him why it happened. What did I do wrong that led to this? The answer? Nothing. The tooth looks healthy. No cavities. I’ve taken good care of it. But somehow the root has gotten inflamed, and I guess that just keeps on going once it starts.

He assured me that root canals aren’t nearly as bad as they’re made out to be, but still: it’s not something I’m looking forward to. And like I said in the title: what’s the point of brushing your teeth when you need to get root canals anyway? I suppose the answer is, “You’ll need to get fewer of them,” but I still feel like I’ve been sold a false bill of goods. Not that I’m going to stop brushing, but I think have a case to protest.

Not that it’ll do any good.

Anyway, wish me luck next week when I have my inaugural root canal, and then luck later on, when I have my inaugural crown. (Not the good kind of crown, either. But still expensive.) I suppose this comes with the territory of getting older, but that doesn’t make me any happier about it . . .

Catroverts United!

Yes, my speedy descent into cat study madness is continuing. We’ve launched a YouTube channel just for our cat personality study: Catroverts United. Actually, we’ve done more than just that.

Basically, I wanted a place where I could discuss the cat personality things without having it get cluttered in with all the rest of the stuff I’m writing about. I’d like people who are interested in this study to be able to see all the discussion about it easily in one place. So we’ve got a Facebook page set up, the YouTube page has gone up, and I’m going to try and do a TikTok account as well. (Just need to figure out how to switch between vertical and horizontal videos easily.)

So if you’d like to make sure you’re up on all the latest and greatest cat personality discussion, you know where you can go to stay on top of it. We’ll be posting content that discusses personality studies in general, our cat personality study in specific, findings related to both, and then a series of what we’re calling “Cat Personality Profiles”: in-depth look at what makes each cat unique from a personality standpoint. Once we’ve got a few of those under our belt, we’d like to start doing some for everyday cats. So yes, if you’ve got a cat who you’d like to have featured, we’ll be having a call for volunteers soonish.

Anyway, here’s the video that just went live today, where I discuss the channel a bit. Thanks for reading (and watching)!

Television Review: Veronica Mars Season One

I first watched Veronica Mars so long ago, Denisa and I had to have it on mute most of the time, because we were living in a one bedroom apartment, and Tomas was a baby sleeping in our living room. So it’s been a while. We really enjoyed it back in the day, but I wasn’t sure how well a teenage detective show would stand up twenty years later. To make matters even more interesting, Denisa and I watched it this time around with Daniela. Honestly, I thought there was a fairly high chance we wouldn’t make it past the first three episodes.

Instead, we’ve all looked forward to watching an episode almost every night. The show was remarkably strong on many different levels, and I strongly recommend it.

If you’re unfamiliar with it, it’s basically a neo-noir detective show starring Kirsten Bell in her first big role. As a middle-class upperclassman at a high school packed with rich kids, she’s the girlfriend of one of them and the best friend of another. But then her best friend is murdered, her boyfriend dumps her, her father (the local sheriff) is ousted from her job, and all of her friends completely shun her. Her father starts a private detective business, and she throws herself into the role of his assistant.

It turns out she’s pretty dang good at it.

The first season traces the larger plot of “Who killed Veronica’s best friend,” and then shuffles in a series of mystery of the week plots to keep things moving forward. Layered on top of that are a bunch of interpersonal high school drama plot lines like boyfriends, annoying teachers, stolen mascots, and a whole slew of others. And the show manages to be interesting on just about every single level.

It helps that Kirsten Bell is a natural lead. She does a phenomenal acting job, and she’s supported by a strong cast across the board. It also helps that the writing is top notch. It’s funny, heartbreaking at times, and infuriating at others. It moves along at a fast clip, and the weekly mysteries are varied enough to keep things interesting, and the big mystery offers plenty of twists and turns as well.

It also really helps that the high school dynamics still feel spot on. Perhaps some of this is because our local high school is so much different and smaller than the one Veronica attends, but I think a larger part is that the emotions and actions of teenagers haven’t necessarily changed all that much. Daniela really connected with the characters, though we all agreed that it’s doubtful there’s really a high school where kids are as almost universally awful as at her high school. (I hope there’s not, at least. The popular kids at Veronica’s school are completely and utterly horrible to everyone, including each other.)

In any case, it was a great watch. If you haven’t seen it for a while, it’s worth a second round. If you’ve never seen it, then you’re missing out. 9.5/10, and streaming on Hulu.

March Madness 2024 Edition!

It’s that time of year again, folks! March Madness brackets were just announced yesterday, and as usual, I’m running another blog bracket. This year, the prize is a signed Advance Reading Copy of my next book, A Family of Killers. That’s right! You’ll get to read this in print four months early. If that’s not incentive enough, you’ll also be able to brag to all your friends about how you were the best at something that really ends up not being skill-based at all.

Note that I’ll be sending the ARC out to whomever wins, or whomever comes in second place if I end up being the winner. I’ll just need to know your address then, and I’ll send the copy off in the mail right away.

To enter, just head on over to the ESPN group I’ve made for Bryce’s Ramblings. You’ll need the password to enter: vodnik

I hope to see you there, and may the most lucky person win!

Movie Review: Conan the Barbarian

I have long held the belief that up until Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings movies, fantasy just never got a fair shake in cinema. I’ve watched quite a few earlier fantasy movies, and while some of them certainly made an effort at quality, too often they just ended up being far too cheesy to take seriously. In my head, I’d always assumed Schwarzenegger’s Conan the Barbarian would fall right into that same category, so I never even bothered to watch it.

I don’t know what possessed me, but I decided to give it a shot earlier this week, expecting to turn it off after a bit once I knew I was right. Instead, I watched it through to the end, and I really enjoyed it. No, the effects aren’t great, and the choreography of an action sequence has made leaps and bounds since this movie came out, but the fundamental essentials of a good movie are all there, and it still stands up despite those limitations.

The biggest reason for this, of course, is Arnold. I don’t think you could possibly get someone better equipped to play the role of a barbarian. He’s like a fantasy illustration brought to life, so there’s almost no need for elaborate costumes and special effects. In many ways, he is the special effect. All he has to do is grab a sword and start swinging (or better yet, a battle axe), and you’re off and running. The fact that his English was so accented only added to the aura.

And he’s not just some muscle-head, either. Is he a great actor in it? Well, no. But there’s charisma there, and it’s clear to see why he ended up being so successful in Hollywood, and why other pure body builders haven’t really been able to follow suit. Simply lifting heavy things doesn’t prepare you to be an action star. Go figure.

Don’t get me wrong: this isn’t a perfect movie by any stretch. But it’s solid through and through. And even though the effects are lacking in some areas, the costuming, set design, and general tone of the film are very strong. When Conan’s group of adventurers all put on camo war paint to invade an evil temple, they look fantastic. And as for plot, it’s a movie about how Conan became a barbarian warrior. Kind of exactly what the title implies. There’s something to be said for simplicity.

I gave it an 8/10. Yes, it’s full of early 80s cheese, and it’s definitely R-rated (though not nearly as bloody as it would be today), but I had a great time with it, and I’m sorry I missed out on it by making silly assumptions all this time.