ريتشارد دوكنز's Blog, page 674
October 3, 2015
‘Martian’ Astronaut Would Get Cancer if Mission Were Real, Author Says
In the newly released The Martian, a stranded astronaut must figure out how to survive on the Red Planet after being accidentally left behind when the rest of his crew escapes a violent dust storm. Explorer Mark Watney spends many months trying to make water, grow food and send an SOS signal back to Earth. Most of the tools he uses in the film, which opened Oct. 2, are based on existing or in-development technology. The one major exception is the radiation-blocking material that allows Watney to spend much of his days outside his habitat, on the surface of a planet that lacks Earth’s atmosphere and is thus bathed in significantly higher levels of damaging radiation.
“In the book they have this really thin, light, flexible material that blocks all radiation,” says Andy Weir, author of the book The Martian on which the film was based. “There’s nothing even remotely like that in the real world. That was the magic I gave him so the story would progress. Otherwise Mark would have different kinds of cancer.”
Scientists differ on how dangerous the radiation levels on Mars would actually be for future explorers. The first on-the-ground radiation measurements came from NASA’s Curiosity rover in 2013, which suggested that astronauts who spent a year traveling to and from Mars and 500 days on the surface would receive a radiation dose of about one Sievert, equivalent to a roughly five percent increased lifetime risk of cancer compared to a lifetime of exposure back on Earth. NASA currently limits astronauts to no more than a three percent increased risk of developing cancer compared to the general population—after they reach this amount of cumulative radiation, they’re grounded. The space agency, however, is forging ahead with plans to send crews to Mars by the 2030s; among the technologies high on its list to develop for a Martian mission is better radiation shielding.
Scientific American spoke to Weir about the plausibility of a real-life mission to Mars, the prospect of space hotels and why he would never want to travel to the Red Planet himself. An edited version of the conversation is below.
How much of the technology Watney uses in the book and movie actually exists?
Pretty much all of it exists. The radiation shielding was the one magical technology I granted them. But otherwise all the technology is either current or scaled-up versions of what exists today.
Do you think humans will ever reach Mars?
Absolutely. The only question is when. But despite how I portray the missions in the book, I think the first manned mission will probably be a [multinational] effort like the International Space Station.
I suspect we lack the political will to send a manned mission to Mars right now. The money is not there, and NASA isn’t as well-funded as they used to be, but I don’t have any doubt that we will eventually get there. I’d like it happen during my lifetime but if it doesn’t, oh well. I’m just a little drop in the bucket when it comes to human history.
In The Martian, China’s space agency plays an important part in attempts to save Mark Watney. Do you think the Chinese might be the first to send people to Mars?
No. They are certainly capable, but I also question whether they have the political will to spend that much money. I do strongly suspect that by the time we go to Mars we’ll be cooperating with China.
Commercial space companies don’t feature much in the story. Do you think they’ll be a major force in getting to Mars?
Absolutely—commercial spaceflight is crucial. Companies like SpaceX say they want to drive the price down, and are vigilantly working to reduce the cost to get things into Earth orbit. That motivation is what will ultimately allow us to expand into our solar system.
Imagine if you could go up into space and spend a week at a space hotel for about $50,000. It would be once-in-a-lifetime trip, but a lot of middle-class Americans would do that. Suddenly, there’d be this huge market for it and that would cause even more competition in the industry and drive prices further down. We’re just at the cusp of a space boom, I think.
If this future comes to pass, would you want to go to Mars?
Oh hell no. I write about brave people. I’m not one of them. I have a fear of flying!
Watch Uranium Emit Radiation
Photo credit:
CloudyLabs YouTube screen grab.
You’ve heard of the catastrophic effects of radiation on environments, animals and humans. A seemingly silent and invisible destroyer, radiation can make whole cities inhabitable for hundreds of years.
But have you ever wondered what radiation actually looks like?
There may be one image that jumps to mind. The Simpsons/FOX
Here’s How An Artist With Synesthesia “Sees” Famous Songs
Photo credit:
Bodysnatchers. Melissa S McCracken.
Synesthesia is a very rare neurological condition in which the usually individual neural pathways in the brain down which sensory messages travel become inexplicably linked. This allows “sufferers” to see sound, and taste colors.
Synesthesia, from the Greek words syn (union) and aesthesis (sensation), affects roughly 1 in 2,000 people, affecting different people in different ways.
Here’s What Would Happen To Your Brain If You Took A Trip To Mars
Photo credit:
NASA, ESA, and The Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA) / Wikimedia Commons
Future Mars astronauts will have plenty to contend with if they are ever to make it to the Red Planet. In perhaps one of the most well-known experiments to simulate a trip to the planet, Mars500 had six men spend 520 days in a pressurized facility in Russia – the longest simulated space mission to date. The purpose was to test how well the men could cope with extended periods of isolation and confinement.
10 Bizarre Illnesses That Science Has Yet To Explain
Photo credit:
The "sweating sickness" will cause you to die within a few hours. Shutterstock/javi_indy
Did you know you can be allergic to both your own tears and shower water? You can't even cry about how dirty you are from not being able to shower… it’s cruel.
And on the flipside, the so called "sweating sickness" will cause you to die within a few hours of contracting it, and no one has any idea why.
Have you heard of Kuru? It causes holes to appear in your brain, but it can also cause sufferers to burst into uncontrollable laughter. I mean, what’s funny about holes forming in your brain? Again, another twisted and currently unexplainable disease.
October 2, 2015
Shoring Up Against Storms
When Hurricane Sandy made landfall in New Jersey in 2012, it washed away miles of beaches that the government paid billions to restore afterward. Few preventative countermeasures were in place. Now, as the Mid-Atlantic waits to see if it’s in Hurricane Joaquin’s path, whether or not its coastal communities are ready for a major storm might be put to the test.
Many places along the East Coast, like Norfolk, Virginia and Charleston, South Carolina, know they’re at risk for storm surge flooding. A storm surge is an increase in water level caused by the strong winds the storm creates. Unfortunately, the only completely effective way to reduce this risk is both unpopular and impractical.
“The only thing that can be done to alleviate it is to get the most important infrastructure out of places that are likely to flood,” says Robert Young, the director of the Program for the Study of Developed Coastlines and a professor of geology at Western Carolina University. Leaving established communities isn’t seen as viable according to Young, so coastal ones tend “to do things to try to block the storm surge like spending money to build beaches and dunes or elevate property above the [projected] storm surge levels or surge heights.”
Beaches and dunes help bear the brunt of storm-related flooding, which is one of the reasons they’re restored after devastating storms despite the multi-billion dollar price tag. “If you’re lucky, and the beaches and dunes you’ve built are high enough and wide enough, they can block the elevated water level from getting into your community,” Young says.
There are two problems with this method of protection, according to Young. Beaches and dunes only provide protection for typically fast-moving and weak storms. If a storm is particularly intense or long lasting it can breach these defenses. Also, no matter how well built the beaches and dunes might be, they’re a temporary solution because they will still erode. “Over the long term, you’ll have to do it all over again,” Young says.
Newly restored beaches can be a financial gamble as well. A strong storm could occur shortly after restoration and destroy the shoreline all over again. That’s a concern for Joaquin. “Depending on the track,” Young says, Joaquin “could tear up a lot of the beaches that the Army Core of Engineers just spent billions of dollars rebuilding along the shore of New Jersey and New York.”
Unlike beachfront houses, buildings in cities can’t simply be raised above predicted storm surge levels. They can be remodeled so lower floors do not house people or critical equipment, but that can be expensive. Other infrastructure, such as subways, is far more difficult to protect. During Hurricane Sandy the surge caused extensive damage as it flooded subway tunnels and city streets. Unfortunately, flooding due to storms in New York City is likely to become more common due to sea level rise, according to a paper published in PNAS on September 29.
Relocating cities at risk of flooding, like Norfolk, Virginia and Charleston, South Carolina, is not an option. The residents of these cities know they’re vulnerable to storms, however, so they focus on seriously preparing for evacuation, following established hurricane evacuation routes.
City officials can also consider more long-term preventative measures. “They’re just trying to figure out how to pay for it,” Young says. Options include erecting seawalls and levees, which serve to hold back the surge.
Currently, there’s no national plan in place to determine how money is spent to rebuild after storms. Rebuilding efforts cost billions of dollars, often in places that might not justify the expense. Young isn’t convinced that the cost of rebuilding beachfront vacation communities in places like the Jersey Shore, for example, was one the federal government needed to bear. Instead, he believes the community itself should be responsible for rebuilding, as they chose to develop areas known to be at risk for flooding and storm-related destruction.
Despite efforts to maintain it, the coastline is naturally constantly changing. Hurricanes and coastal storms are the main cause of beach erosion and shoreline change. Powerful ones could create entirely new inlets or split a barrier island in half, and little can be done to prevent that.
“Ultimately, we can’t protect everybody, everywhere,” Young warns. Determining what places most require federal aid, both for rebuilding and protective measures, is a necessary next step for how we handle hurricanes.
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Half Of E.U. Countries Opt Out Of Growing GM Crops
Photo credit:
GM maize has already been approved for cultivation in the E.U. 1000 Words/Shutterstock
Over half of the countries that make up the European Union have either already opted out of growing genetically modified (GM) crops on their land, or plan on doing so before the decision-making deadline passes this week. This means that two-thirds of Europe’s population and arable land will remain GM-free for the foreseeable future.
Risk Of Cancer Increases With Height
Photo credit:
The link between cancer and height has been known since the 1970s. Juan Gaertner/Shutterstock
The association between height and cancer has been observed for a long time, with taller people in general being at greater risk of developing the disease. A new study has looked into this link across a massive sample size of more than 5 million adults.
Rosetta Gets Great View Of The “Dark Side” Of Comet 67P
Photo credit:
Shown is an image of the dark south polar region taken on 29 Sept 2014. ESA/Rosetta/MPS for OSIRIS Team.
The "dark side" of Comet 67P Churyumov-Gerasimenko has come into view of the Rosetta spacecraft for the first time. Specifically, it has examined a region near the comet’s south pole that experiences a long and cold winter, which had previously been in darkness for five years.
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