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Allen B. Downey

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Allen Downey is a Professor Emeritus at Olin College and the author of a series of freetextbooks related to software and data science, including Think Python, Think Bayes, and Think Complexity, which are also published by O’Reilly Media. His blog, Probably Overthinking It, features articles on Bayesian probability and statistics. He holds a Ph.D. in computer science from U.C. Berkeley, and M.S. and B.S. degrees from MIT.

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Allen B. Downey's Blog: Probably Overthinking It

Don’t Bet on the Super Bowl

If you have studied probability, you might be familiar with fractional odds, which represent the ratio of the probability something happens to the probability it doesn’t. For example, if the Seahawks have a 75% chance of winning the Super Bowl, they have a 25% chance of losing, so the ratio is 75 to 25, sometimes written 3:1 and pronounced “three to one”.

But if you search for “the odds that the Se

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Allen B. Downey’s books

Average rating: 4.0 · 3,257 ratings · 391 reviews · 36 distinct works • Similar authors

	Think Python 4.12 avg rating — 1,669 ratings — 57 editions	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
	Think Stats 3.64 avg rating — 469 ratings — published 2011 — 14 editions	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
	Think Bayes: Bayesian Statistics in Python 3.94 avg rating — 287 ratings — published 2012 — 14 editions	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
	Think Complexity: Complexity Science and Computational Modeling 3.91 avg rating — 245 ratings — published 2009 — 13 editions	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
	Think Java: How to Think Like a Computer Scientist 3.91 avg rating — 169 ratings — published 2016 — 19 editions	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
	Probably Overthinking It: How to Use Data to Answer Questions, Avoid Statistical Traps, and Make Better Decisions 4.24 avg rating — 94 ratings	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
	The Little Book of Semaphores: The Ins and Outs of Concurrency Control and Common Mistakes 4.39 avg rating — 80 ratings — published 2009	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
	Think DSP: Digital Signal Processing in Python really liked it 4.00 avg rating — 45 ratings — 4 editions	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
	Think Data Structures: Algorithms and Information Retrieval in Java 3.46 avg rating — 37 ratings — 8 editions	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
	Think OS: A Brief Introduction to Operating Systems really liked it 4.00 avg rating — 29 ratings — published 2014 — 5 editions	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars

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Notes on Being a Man

by Scott Galloway

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Feb 07, 2026 08:50AM

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SNAFU: The Definitive Guide to History’s Greatest Screwups

by Ed Helms

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Jul 04, 2025 10:28AM

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Allen’s Recent Updates

Allen B. Downey wrote a new blog post Don’t Bet on the Super Bowl If you have studied probability, you might be familiar with fractional odds, which represent the ratio of the probability something happens to the pro Read more of this blog post »
Feb 09, 2026 02:32AM · like
Allen Downey is currently reading Notes on Being a Man by Scott Galloway	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
Feb 07, 2026 08:50AM · like · preview book See a Problem? We’d love your help. Let us know what’s wrong with this preview of Notes on Being a Man by Scott Galloway. Problem: Details (if other): Thanks for telling us about the problem. Not the book you’re looking for? Preview — Notes on Being a Man by Scott Galloway <iframe sandbox id="wrongBookKindlePreviewScreen">
Allen Downey finished reading Network Effect (The Murderbot Diaries, #5) by Martha Wells (Goodreads Author)	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
Feb 07, 2026 08:49AM · like · preview book See a Problem? We’d love your help. Let us know what’s wrong with this preview of Network Effect by Martha Wells. Problem: Details (if other): Thanks for telling us about the problem. Not the book you’re looking for? Preview — Network Effect by Martha Wells <iframe sandbox id="wrongBookKindlePreviewScreen">
Allen Downey wants to read Matterhorn by Karl Marlantes	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
Jan 28, 2026 04:10AM · like · preview book See a Problem? We’d love your help. Let us know what’s wrong with this preview of Matterhorn by Karl Marlantes. Problem: Details (if other): Thanks for telling us about the problem. Not the book you’re looking for? Preview — Matterhorn by Karl Marlantes <iframe sandbox id="wrongBookKindlePreviewScreen">
Allen Downey has read The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Millennium #1) by Stieg Larsson	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
Jan 23, 2026 06:46AM · like · preview book See a Problem? We’d love your help. Let us know what’s wrong with this preview of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo by Stieg Larsson. Problem: Details (if other): Thanks for telling us about the problem. Not the book you’re looking for? Preview — The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo by Stieg Larsson <iframe sandbox id="wrongBookKindlePreviewScreen">
Allen Downey has read Sharp Objects by Gillian Flynn (Goodreads Author)	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
Jan 23, 2026 06:46AM · like · preview book See a Problem? We’d love your help. Let us know what’s wrong with this preview of Sharp Objects by Gillian Flynn. Problem: Details (if other): Thanks for telling us about the problem. Not the book you’re looking for? Preview — Sharp Objects by Gillian Flynn <iframe sandbox id="wrongBookKindlePreviewScreen">
Allen Downey has read Water for Elephants by Sara Gruen (Goodreads Author)	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
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Allen Downey has read Gone Girl by Gillian Flynn (Goodreads Author)	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
Jan 23, 2026 06:45AM · like · preview book See a Problem? We’d love your help. Let us know what’s wrong with this preview of Gone Girl by Gillian Flynn. Problem: Details (if other): Thanks for telling us about the problem. Not the book you’re looking for? Preview — Gone Girl by Gillian Flynn <iframe sandbox id="wrongBookKindlePreviewScreen">
Allen Downey wants to read We Are Legion (We Are Bob) (Bobiverse, #1) by Dennis E. Taylor (Goodreads Author)	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
Jan 17, 2026 04:39PM · like · preview book See a Problem? We’d love your help. Let us know what’s wrong with this preview of We Are Legion (We Are Bob) by Dennis E. Taylor. Problem: Details (if other): Thanks for telling us about the problem. Not the book you’re looking for? Preview — We Are Legion (We Are Bob) by Dennis E. Taylor <iframe sandbox id="wrongBookKindlePreviewScreen">
Allen Downey wants to read The Gales of November: The Untold Story of the Edmund Fitzgerald by John U. Bacon	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
Jan 17, 2026 04:31PM · like · preview book See a Problem? We’d love your help. Let us know what’s wrong with this preview of The Gales of November by John U. Bacon. Problem: Details (if other): Thanks for telling us about the problem. Not the book you’re looking for? Preview — The Gales of November by John U. Bacon <iframe sandbox id="wrongBookKindlePreviewScreen">

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Quotes by Allen B. Downey (?)

“For all live births, the mean pregnancy length is 38.6 weeks, the standard deviation is 2.7 weeks, which means we should expect deviations of 2-3 weeks to be common.”
― Allen B. Downey, Think Stats

tags: explanations-math

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