Mike Edwards's Blog, page 2
November 14, 2012
Gerrymandering Wins Again
As we discuss in our book, gerrymandering is one of the most powerful tools that our leaders use to manipulate election outcomes. If you want a demonstration of that power, check out this article on the House of Representatives results from last week’s election. Democrats gained seats in the Senate. Democrats won the presidency–both the popular vote and the Electoral College (may it die a quick death). But Republicans won the house, keeping something like a 35 seat majority. So does this mean...
November 12, 2012
12 Angry Men, 100 Million Angry Voters
Last week I saw the 1957 film12 Angry Men for the first time, and I was blown away. It’s probably the best example of irrational group decision-making that I’ve ever seen in a movie.
The movie takes place almost entirely in a jury room. The movie starts just as the trial ends–the only thing that the viewer knows about the case at the beginning is that it involves a homicide, and that the defendant will be put to death if he is found guilty. The details of the case, at least as they were made k...
November 8, 2012
The Urban/Rural Divide
Here’s another way to think about the current party split in this country: the closer that your house is to your neighbors’ houses, the more likely you are to vote for a Democrat. The further apart they are, the more likely you are to vote for a Republican.
For example, here you can find a list of the 50 most densely and least densely populated counties from the 2000 census (I was having a little trouble finding sortable lists from the 2010 census, but there is almost universal overlap, so let...
November 7, 2012
Five Reasons Why Obama Won (and Romney Lost)
It’s finally over. Obama won. There are still some House and Senate races that have yet to be decided, and we are waiting on Florida to know if Obama won with 303 Electoral Votes or 332.
As for my predictions: given my vague predictions, I did pretty well on the presidential level (popular vote under 3% difference, and Obama winning about 310 EVs). This, by the way, is the secret to good predictions: be vague. I did less well on the Senate: the Democrats seem to have held steady, maybe even pi...
November 5, 2012
Almost Done…
The election is tomorrow. Finally, the madness will end–at least for another year or so, until discussion of the 2014 midterms and 2016 presidential election starts to heat up again.
Right now, partisan passions are at their highest. It’s hard to find an advertisement on television that isn’t a campaign ad, and most of them are light years past what any sane person might consider a reasonable discussion of the issues. The real problem, however, is that is all too easy to get wrapped up in the...
November 2, 2012
Things that Shouldn’t Decide the Outcome (But Might)
My coauthor and I have another Huffington Post blog post, which is currently pending approval before it can go live. This time, we chose to focus on a number of small factors that could play a role on Election Day (and none of which have anything remotely to do with politics or policy). I put together a companion chart to the post, which provides useful information for the 10 battleground states, in case you are looking for someone (or something) to blame for your candidate’s “close-but-no-ci...
October 29, 2012
Stop Voter Blackmail
The Citizens United Supreme Court ruling is mostly known for declaring unconstitutional the prohibition against corporations spending money on behalf of candidates. But it also has allowed companies to campaign directly to their employees; in much the same way that employees can talk to each other about politics, it is now legal for an employer to talk to an employee about politics. That makes me a bit nervous, but I can at least understand the argument.
But when it comes to politics, there is...
October 22, 2012
Of Avatar and Progress
Just watched Avatar this weekend; the highest grossing movie of all time, and I’m finally getting around to seeing it on Blu-Ray. It’s a visually stunning film (large sections of the movie could be watched with the dialogue track turned off and it would still be engaging), and as a sci-fi fan I appreciate that the setting is pretty original. The plot is recycled and predictable: spy infiltrates native community but decides he likes the natives better than his own people; betrayals, revelation...
October 16, 2012
The Fungibility of Power
The United States of America is the most powerful nation in the world. We have one of the largest militaries (by total manpower) and we spend almost 10 times as much on that military as any other nation–making the United States military the best armed and trained group in the world. We have the best guns, the best armor, the best vehicles, the best global communications infrastructure… it all adds up to an impressively powerful fighting force. Additionally, the United States has the largest a...
October 10, 2012
Worth Watching
Every four years, the PBS news-documentary series Frontline does an episode called “The Choice,” in which they give side-by-side biographies of the two candidates, explaining the path the brought each candidate to this particular election. The 2004 and 2008 versions were both excellent; in each case it was probably the best single piece of journalism to come out of its respective campaign. The 2012 version, on Obama and Romney, just aired last night; I haven’t had a chance to watch it yet, bu...
