Scott Adams's Blog, page 219

How North Korea Can Become Switzerland of the East

North Korea is playing nice with South Korea lately as they coordinate joint participation in the Olympics. But don’t get too excited about that niceness because it is a wedge strategy to separate South Korea from the United States in our unified position against North Korean nukes. Still, talking feels like a positive step compared to the alternatives.

The big issue, as we all know, is that North Korea wants nuclear weapons and most of the rest of the world, especially the United States, is unwilling to live with that. Hence the economic sanctions.

So what would a solution to this stalemate look like?

For starters, you need a solution in which both sides seem to have won something. The alternative involves squeezing their economy until we choke it out, and that’s the current default path. The problem with that approach is that it risks pushing them to a war of desperation, and while we wait for that horror, millions of innocents will starve. The United States will come out on top eventually, but not at a cost we can be happy about. So allow me to suggest a winning option for all involved. I call it the Switzerland of the East plan.

Kim Jong Un went to school in Switzerland. He knows it as a country that gets just about everything right and does it without a traditional army. Is Switzerland safe from attack? Yup. Safer than just about any other country. Their famed neutrality is like a psychological army that costs nothing. No one has a reason to attack them, and everyone knows they won’t cause trouble.

Now, who would you rather be — a European country paying for a standing army, always worried about attack — or a country that is enjoying its neutrality while skiing and enjoying hot chocolate? I would argue that the Switzerland model is more stable and more respectable than any competing model, including the United States. And that gives North Korea a winning end state. They can, if they choose to pivot, become Switzerland of the East.

If North Korea traded away it’s offensive nuclear capabilities in return for a UN designation declaring them a neutral country, they could have the protection of China, Russia, South Korea, and the United States. Collectively, we would become North Korea’s free military while they prosper. Under this plan, the United States would draw down its military assets in South Korea as well.

On top of such a plan, I have previously suggested creating a 100-year roadmap for Korean unification. The reason for such a long time frame is that it takes pressure off of the living. The next generation would need to close the deal, and that gives lots of time for confidence steps along the way. The Olympic coordination is a confidence step. Increasing travel is another. Then trade, communications, etc. No need to rush.

The key to this plan is that it gives North Korea not just a winning path, but the most winning path any leader ever took. It would lead to a Nobel Peace Prize for sure, shared by other leaders, I assume. And it would give North Korea a BETTER outcome than the one they are currently aiming for. At the moment, their greatest realistic ambition is to survive. Becoming Switzerland of the East is better than that. Way better. So much better it can hardly be compared. One thing we know about Kim Jong Un is that he likes sports and he likes winning. If he pivoted to become Switzerland of the East, he’d win harder than any leader ever won anything.

And the rest of the world would win too.

North Korea would still need a functioning economy that didn’t depend on smuggling arms and other illegal stuff. But the world would gladly help them rebuild. I can see North Korea as a sort of Las Vegas model, where laws about personal behavior are lax and the money flows.

The United States and North Korea are engaging in a psychological war right now. And for the first time in history it is a fair fight. President Trump understands the mental game like no president before him. And Kim Jong Un appears to have a similar toolset. Never have we had such a perfect setup for peace. There is a win here for both leaders, and a win of historic proportions.

North Korea surely holds no hope of conquering South Korea or destroying the United States with fire and malice, despite their colorful rhetoric. Two years ago it was popular to believe Kim Jong Un was nuts. Now we see him as rational and clever. He’ll recognize a better deal when he sees it. And becoming Switzerland of the East could be the best deal any country ever had.

It’s time for some winning all around.

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President Trump Earns the Highest Presidential Approval Level of All Time

The Small Business Optimism Index hit an all-time high. That’s the new Presidential Approval Poll.

In olden days (pre-2016), candidates for president were not so different from each other. I can remember pundits complaining endlessly about how similar the Democrats and Republicans had become. In that environment, you can easily imagine someone who voted for Candidate A warming up to Candidate B. In those simpler times, a presidential approval poll meant something.

Today, a “presidential approval poll” is little more than taking attendance. If you’re a Democrat, you disapprove of President Trump as a lifestyle choice. If you voted for Trump, you probably still approve of him because you knew exactly what you were getting. And if you are an anti-Trump conservative, you allow cognitive dissonance to rule your brain and you say he’s doing a good job but you disapprove of him anyway. David Brooks accidentally described this phenomenon in this article.

I contend that business optimism — and small business optimism in particular — are the new standard for presidential approval because “economics” captures most of what a president influences.

If a president starts a war, or threatens to start one, the economy flinches.

If a president starts a trade war, or threatens one, the economy flinches.

If a president is tearing apart the fabric of civilization in one way or another, the economy collapses.

If a big terror attack succeeds on the homeland, the economy flinches.

If immigration is allowed in large numbers, the economy feels it.

I could go on. The point is that all of the “big” issues directly influence the economy via their impact on our psychology and our resources. In a free, capitalist country, “the economy” captures all the goodness and badness of a presidency without really trying. And the measure that best reflects the future of the economy, in my opinion, is small business optimism.

Big businesses can do fine with a president who promotes policies that favor big corporations, even if the rest of the country is suffering. But when small business owners are feeling good about the economy, that means the president is doing a more bottoms-up job of getting things right. President Trump has focused on bottoms-up economics from the start, meaning jobs and lessened regulations. Apparently that is working.

I have been telling you for two years straight that psychology drives the economy, and that a Master Persuader such as President Trump can directly influence psychology and optimism. We see him doing that right before our eyes.

At the same time President Trump is “talking up” our economy, he’s talking North Korea’s economy to ruin. If you own a company that is involved in smuggling with North Korea, you probably noticed that South Korea nabbed two tankers that satellite photos spotted cheating. That’s going to be a financial disaster for those shipping companies. The psychology of the corporations involved in smuggling just changed, courtesy of the Master Persuader who has no intention of taking his boot off the North Korean economy until they lose their nukes. This approach is already causing North Korea to get flexible, at least in the talking sense.

Keep in mind that all of the personality negatives that are reflected in the old-timey presidential approval polls are exactly what is scaring North Korea into the arms of “good cop” South Korea. President Trump’s tweets didn’t cause a war; they caused North Korean flexibility, exactly as I predicted.

And if you are still worried about President Trump’s mental health, I’ll do a Periscope later today to tell you how badly the media has abused the public on that topic. For a preview, check out this interview that Dr. Drew did with Dr. Bandy Lee on her opinions of President Trump’s mental health. The media reported her as saying he was mentally unfit. That wasn’t the case. She has no professional opinion on the President’s mental capacity because she has never met him. Her primary concern is about societal violence as a result of his presidency. That is completely different from what has been reported all week. I nominate this story for the Fake News Awards. I think it can be a finalist.

You will enjoy my book Win Bigly because you enjoyed this blog post.

 

 

 

 

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Is President Trump’s Nuclear Button Tweet a Sign of Insanity?

On CNN yesterday, Jake Tapper described President Trump’s recent behavior — including the President’s tweet about having a bigger nuclear “button” than North Korea — as abnormal and unstable. In other words, crazy.

Is it?

One folksy definition of “crazy” is that it involves trying over and over again a solution that has never worked while hoping it works next time. President Trump is doing something closer to the opposite of that. He’s doing something new, both strategically and verbally. To be fair, new things can be crazy too. But usually only if they don’t work. When a new and unexpected thing works out well, we call it genius. And that begs the question: Is President Trump’s approach to North Korea working?

We’re seeing economic sanctions on North Korea that have the support of the UN Security Council. That part is working, and it took diplomatic skill to make it happen.

But we also see satellite images of tankers smuggling oil into North Korea. The sanctions looked as if they were not effective until South Korea detained two tankers involved in smuggling oil to North Korea. Grabbing two tankers doesn’t do much in terms of limiting supply, but it does dramatically change the perceived economics of being a smuggler. And if grabbing two tankers doesn’t get the message across, South Korea can keep detaining tankers until the economics do change. North Korea would be willing to take big risks to break the sanctions, but the shipping companies on which they depend will not. Shipping companies will only participate in wrongdoing when they are confident they won’t get caught. That calculation changed when South Korea detained two tankers.

I told you months ago that the United States was going to war with corporations that trade with North Korea. We’re seeing that with the detained tankers. Whoever owns them is bleeding cash while they sit unused. And I speculate that our intelligence services are making life difficult for other CEOs and corporations involved in violating the economic sanctions. President Trump knows he doesn’t need to stop all of the smuggling and cheating — he only needs to increase the risk until it is uneconomical for the companies involved. We’re heading in that direction.

For the first time I can recall, time is on our side with North Korea. Every passing day sees North Korea’s economy shrinking while South Korea and America thrive. We’re effectively already at war and winning hard. The longer North Korea waits to get serious about negotiating, the weaker their hand.

A recent statement out of North Korea said, in effect, that they need their nuclear weapons as a deterrent because the United States is performing war games along its border. The way I interpret North Korea’s statement is that they are getting flexible. This is the first time I’ve heard North Korea speak of their nukes as conditional on what we do. In other words, they are open to denuclearizing if we reduce their perceived military risk. They haven’t said that directly. But that’s how I read it.

North Korea recently made friendly gestures toward South Korea, offering to participate in the upcoming Olympics and opening cross-border communications for the first time in a year. The trend we are seeing is that the tougher the sanctions and rhetoric from the United States, the more flexible North Korea is becoming.

But let’s talk about President Trump’s latest tweet about North Korea. Here is the text:

“North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!”

Here we see President Trump “pacing” (or matching) the hyperbolic rhetoric of Kim Jung Un. The two leaders are trash-talking each other like sports rivals. But what is missed in the hysterics over wording is that President Trump and Kim Jung Un are negotiating personally, albeit in public. And I think it is safe to say both players know they are being over-the-top with their trash-talk. The odds of a nuclear miscalculation based on anything said so far is effectively zero. And if the rhetoric ratchets up to a new level of hyperbole, I would still see no additional risk. President Trump and Kim Jong Un have demonstrated they know the difference between trash-talk and action.

The Persuasion Filter says this public trash-talking probably lowers our risk of a nuclear accident. If you don’t share the kind of personality we are seeing displayed by both leaders, you might miss the biggest variable in play here. What I see is two unconventional leaders already in conversation, getting a feel for the other, and on some level enjoying the exchange. You know President Trump loves this sort of verbal battle, and he’s good at it. Now keep in mind that North Korea is a tiny country that would normally be below America’s radar. But Kim Jong Un has the full attention of the President of the United States and is trash-talking with him in public. I have to think he enjoys the verbal jousting on some level, same as President Trump.

So while it might look to many observers as two crazy leaders heading for a nuclear showdown, to me it looks like two colorful characters who probably have a weird kind of respect for each other. Let me put it another way. Which of these two situations carries a greater risk of accidental nuclear war?

Two nuclear foes who have no communication and are trying to interpret the actions of the other.
Two nuclear foes trash-talking each other (with humor) in front of the world

I’ll take option two every time. When Kim Jong Un and President Trump are trash-talking in public with hyperbolic humor, they’re talking. The only risk is that one of them doesn’t understand the other is being over-the-top for effect. And I see no real risk of that. They both know what they are getting with the other.

I’d be worried if I saw Kim Jong Un yammering about the latest round of economic sanctions being an act of war. But instead he’s talking of participating in the Olympics in South Korea. That sounds like a leader who is trying to avoid war.

If you are a literal type of person who doesn’t recognize hyperbole or humor, I can see how this situation looks scary. But I promise you neither leader has a physical “button” on his desk, of any size, to launch a nuclear attack. And I feel confident that both leaders understand humor and hyperbole when they see it.

My view on all of this is that we are closer than we have ever been to a peace deal that results in a non-nuclear North Korea. Everything I see suggests President Trump is successfully “setting the table,” as he likes to say, for productive talks. Can the hundred-year plan for reunification be far away?

You might like my book, Win Bigly, because the alternative is to believe you are about to die in a nuclear blast.

The post Is President Trump’s Nuclear Button Tweet a Sign of Insanity? appeared first on Dilbert Blog.

How President Trump Changed Your Imagination

Do you remember when candidate Trump told us (in effect) that he would be the first non-politician to win the presidency? It seemed impossible to even imagine such a thing. Then he did the impossible.

Do you remember when it was common wisdom that if the U.S. recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel it would be a huge problem? President Trump did it anyway. So far, it looks like a minor problem at most.

Do you remember when experts said President Trump shouldn’t mess with the Iran nuclear deal because it could cause a huge problem for the United States and its allies? He did it anyway, and it is likely a supporting variable for the Iranian protestors who don’t like how their government is creating problems that don’t need to be problems.

Do you remember when experts said China will never help squeeze the economy of North Korea because China fears a refugee crisis? President Trump encouraged China to squeeze anyway. Then he helpfully provided satellite photos of tankers cheating on the high seas. After South Korea grabbed and held a second cheating tanker, the economics of smuggling oil have turned negative, or will soon. And North Korea is sounding — at least to my ears — more flexible than ever.

That branch is stronger than you imagined.

Do you remember when it was common wisdom that we couldn’t put enough pressure on Pakistan to make them stop harboring terrorists because Pakistan is also an ally in many ways? President Trump just cut off their funding and put them on notice.

Do you remember when experts said withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord would be a catastrophe? President Trump did it anyway because he didn’t like the deal. I’ve seen no indication that exiting the deal made the climate worse. Here I’m only talking about the quality of the Accord and what little impact it would have had in the best case scenario.

The big wildcard in our many “impossibles” has to do with the tax bill and the deficit. Experts say it is impossible to get enough growth from the tax bill to pay for the deficit. But the experts are blind to the persuasion of it all. If President Trump persuades the economy higher, let’s say to 5-6% GDP, there’s a good chance he will accomplish the impossible once again and pay for those tax cuts. The tax cuts alone won’t get us to that GDP, but as part of a larger package of persuasion-by-optimism, it is strong sauce.

The meta-impact of President Trump routinely doing the “impossible” is that it changes how all of us view our world. If Trump can keep doing the impossible, time and time again, why can’t we?

Sometimes things are literally impossible. But much of the time we are only limited by our imaginations. Many of us simply couldn’t imagine that a number of the things President Trump has done would work out well. These were not simple surprises; these were failures of our imagination.

In 2015 I told you that candidate Trump would change far more than politics. I said he would change how we understand reality itself. And one of those biggest changes is in the scope of our imaginations. One year ago it was hard for me to imagine Saudi Arabia taking a sudden turn toward modernization. One year ago it was hard for me to imagine an uprising in Iran that could reshape its destiny. I assume it was hard for the Iranian public to imagine it as well. But they sure are imagining it now.

President Trump isn’t the only variable in the world. But he does create a pattern in our minds of making the impossible seem achievable. Don’t underestimate the impact that pattern has on the imaginations of everyone watching.

And don’t be surprised if 2018 is the year when people all over the world shed their mental prisons and take on the “impossibles” in ways we have never seen. Thanks to President Trump, people everywhere are beginning to recognize the difference between real impossibilities and simple failures of imagination.

Welcome to The Golden Age. It starts now.

If you want to be part of The Golden Age, consider signing up to be an expert (at anything) with my startup’s app called Interface, which is nearing completion. The first experts who sign up will get priority search rankings. We have several hundred experts already, on all kinds of topics, and more coming every day. Imagine a world where you can get advice on anything, directly from an expert, on a video call via your phone, in less than a minute, with no paperwork. We’re almost there.

The post How President Trump Changed Your Imagination appeared first on Dilbert Blog.

The Demolition President

President Trump has delivered on a number of promises for his base. But there was an impressive amount of breakage along the way. You might say he President Trump did as much demolition as he did construction. The press is doing a good job of telling us what he accomplished in 2017. But they keep leaving out all the stuff he broke that probably needed to be broken. I’ll fix that for you here.

GOP – Trump broke the GOP and reconstructed it along his terms, successfully it seems.

DNC – The DNC has no charismatic leader, no game plan, and little money.

Clinton Dynasty – Done

Bush Dynasty – Done

Mainstream Media – The public learned that news coverage is based on bias as much as fact.

NFL – Ratings down, attendance down.

If President Trump were a large piece of construction equipment, which one would he be?

FBI (leadership) – The FBI as a whole is still highly credible, but the leadership is not.

Pundits – Nearly all the pundits were wrong about Trump’s nomination, election, and successful (by Republican standards) first year.

Government Regulations – For good or bad, we have fewer regulations now.

Hollywood – Big stars are alienating 40% of their potential audience whenever they take time off from groping.

North Korea – They used to have a pathetic but functioning economy. That situation is changing rapidly.

ISIS – Remember ISIS? They used to be a big deal.

TPP – Pulled out

Paris Climate Accord – Pulled out

Reality – I told you in 2015 that candidate Trump would change more than politics. I told you he would change the way we saw reality. Do you remember when you thought the news reported facts and that humans used those facts to make reasoned decisions? You probably don’t think that anymore.

I’m probably leaving out some stuff that got broken. It’s been a busy year.

My startup, WhenHub, is taking early sign-ups for experts (on any topic) who want to make money on our new app called Interface, now in development. The first experts who sign up will get preferential search rankings. See details here.

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How to Determine If You Should Talk About Politics in Public

When candidate Trump first set about the job of redefining politics (and reality) back in 2015, people had lots of predictions about how things would turn out. One year isn’t long enough to know everything we need to know about his presidency, but it’s long enough to to check some of our predictions. As a public service, I put together a list of predictions that various people made about Trump that you can use to evaluate your own predictive powers. Count the number of items on the list that you once predicted would be true. I’ll tell you how to evaluate your score at the end.

Did you once believe…

Trump will never win the GOP nomination.

Trump will never win the presidency.

Stocks will drop if Trump is elected.

President Trump will deport ten million illegal immigrants.

Trump will be gone (impeached, jailed, or quit) by end of 2017.

Trump’s immigration ban on several Muslim countries will be found unconstitutional.

Trump colluded with Russia, and that’s a crime.

Trump obstructed justice (a crime) by firing Comey.

Trump’s skills as a “con man” might get him elected but it won’t transfer into doing the job of president.

Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel will cause huge problems.

Trump’s tweeting will cause huge problems.

GOP will never embrace Trump.

Trump will get nothing important done.

Trump will not work effectively with leaders of other countries.

GOP senators will vote against GOP priorities because of President Trump’s mean tweets.

Trump will not nominate qualified judges to the Supreme Court.

Trump is incompetent.

Presidential approval polls are a good predictor of how a president will perform.

The military won’t follow Trump’s orders.

GDP will never stay above 3%.

— end —

I didn’t get any of those predictions wrong. But if you got 15 or more wrong, you might want to consider never saying anything about politics out loud again for the rest of your life. Just a suggestion.

Clinton supporter expresses surprise at his lack of prescience

Okay, okay. I know you are quibbling with a few items I included on the list. Maybe you think the bad news for Trump — such as the alleged Russia problems — will sink Trump eventually. We can revisit this list next year. But if you are wrong for three years straight — about almost everything Trump-related — please adjust your confidence in your predictive powers accordingly.

If you got 15 or more of those predictions wrong, please consider reading a copy of my book, Win Bigly, to learn how to use what I call the Persuasion Filter to predict better.

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Scott Adams’ Life Story Update

I thought I’d update my life story here. This was created in the WhenHub Studio at WhenHub.com. This is a nice gift idea for someone in your life. You can easily create a life story for someone you love. Share on social media or play to your TV on Christmas day with Apple TV or Google Chrome. Also good for New Year’s Eve parties — show the year in review.

The post Scott Adams’ Life Story Update appeared first on Dilbert Blog.

Ideas for Improving Life in High Crime Areas

Crime is the base problem for a number of poor urban areas. Wherever you have high crime, you have trouble attracting employers. And without employment options, you end up with poverty, a low tax base to support schools, hopelessness, drug dealing, and the rest. So I thought I would share some ideas for reducing urban crime. The first idea comes from Black Lives Matters out of New York. I can’t judge this sort of idea from my suburban home in California, but I share it with you because it belongs in the conversation. There is a small experiment going on in part of Harlem that has drastically reduced violent gun crime. Police say the big difference is the number of illegal guns they took out of the neighborhoods in question, but they also credit a group called Street Corner Resources with “. . . a mix of adult education courses, connections to legal and housing help and free job placement programs that would result in positions that could pay $40 to $50 a day more than selling drugs.”

I think it’s always fair to be skeptical of success claims. But I like any plan that can be tested small and evaluated. This example fits that model perfectly. Ideally, we should have a dozen different programs running in different neighborhoods around the country to see which ones work best.

I’d also like to see a system in which senior citizens within a dangerous neighborhood can watch security camera videos of all public spaces in their general area and report suspicious activity to police. Perhaps they can be paid for this service. You’d need a system that piped the videos directly to residential TV sets or mobile devices and randomized the camera views so the criminals never know which residents are watching which blocks. That keeps the watchers safe.

I would also expect more police and security drones coming into use to get closer looks at crime in progress, and to follow perps back to their hiding places. Imagine a senior citizen viewing a crime on a security cam and alerting police who send up the closest drone from a secure rooftop nearby to get a better look. That should drive most crime indoors, at the very least.

I’m sure there are lots of other ideas for reducing crime. I’d like to see the government do a better job of shining a light on various local crime-fighting experiments so everyone knows the options and we can pick the winners as they are identified. Wouldn’t you like to see regular reports on the news about crime-fighting experiments that are working well?

Update: Baltimore is using aerial surveillance to fight crime. See article.

 

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Why Black Lives Matter (BLM) and Republicans are Natural Allies (or should be)

One of the big changes in our national consciousness, thanks to President Trump, is that many of us are starting to see politics in terms of “deals.” We are also thinking about a growing economy. Compare that approach to the Obama/Bernie/Clinton worldview that is more about wealth transfer in a world of scarcity. For my purposes today, you don’t need to decide which approach is better. I only make the claim that we are more focused on the Art of the Deal than at any time in American politics. This is one of the many ways President Trump is in our heads.

And the deal-making mindset, along with some lucky coincidences, has created the greatest opportunity for improvement that the African-American community has seen in decades. At the same time, Republicans have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to earn a larger share of the black vote in 2018 and beyond. All we are missing is the right deal. Is there a potential deal that is good for President Trump and the GOP while also being good for BLM?

Yes. And it isn’t even hard.

I’ll get to that deal after some necessary context. (It’s worth your time.)

You probably remember that candidate Trump famously asked African-American voters during the campaign “What the hell do you have to lose?” It sounded like a weak offer when I first heard it. But combined with his deal-making approach to politics, you could also see it as an invitation to pitch some ideas. The door is open.

Some of you might recall that when Colin Kaepernick started the kneeling trend in the NFL, I publicly offered to help translate any ideas he might have for improving the lives of black Americans into “Republican language” so there would be some hope of persuading the group that held the most political power. I never heard any specific suggestions from Kaepernick. But as I often say, he gets full credit as a Master Persuader for capturing our attention and holding it. He has skin in the game, he broke no laws, and he turned a back-burner issue in America into a front-burner issue. I give Kaepernick an A+ for American activism. Was Kaepernick offensive to people who love the flag and respect the police? Absolutely. That’s why we paid so much attention. But he didn’t break anything except for the way we think, and that was his objective.

As of this writing, Kaepernick only got us halfway to where he wants us to be. He lacked specific suggestions for improvement. Black Lives Matter has been similar. They get high marks for attracting attention, but they have so far been more provocative than helpful. I need to pause here to tell you that BLM has a wide range of personalities and priorities in it. On one extreme you have folks who are anti-police, anti-borders, pro-violence, and other unhelpful positions. But other chapters support the rule of law, including support for police, and are looking for practical solutions to real problems. If you dislike the extremists in BLM, consider supporting the BLM leaders who are focused on peaceful and practical solutions. That’s the mindset that gave us Martin Luther King Jr. I think that worked out for everyone.

Black Lives Matter (NY Chapter), under the leadership of Hawk Newsome, just came up with a set of suggested improvements that can — with a little negotiating — appeal to both Democrats and Republicans. If both parties like what they see, Republicans have the stronger hand because they are in power at the moment. The tie goes to the party that can make things happen. Love him or hate him, President Trump does make things happen. And he likes making deals. In other words, BLM of NY is answering President Trump’s invitation with a “What do you have to lose?” offer of their own.

If you have the time to hear my persuasive pitch of BLM-NY’s ideas on video, see them here. For the full persuasive effect, watch the video before reading the “spoilers” that follow. But this blog post can be consumed without watching the video.

I contacted Hawk Newsome to see how I could help his cause after watching a video in which he flipped a crowd of Trump-supporters from haters to friends in about five minutes. It was one of the most impressive acts of persuasion I have ever seen. Watch it here and see what I mean. This isn’t the BLM you thought you knew.

Hawk shared with me an early version of his chapter’s suggested improvements for the country. Again, I was impressed. The suggestions were beneficial to Americans in general, not just the black community, although that group might feel they have the most to gain, and perhaps they do. This was the same sort of persuasion strategy that got President Obama elected twice. Obama emphasized his policies, not his color, and that approach allowed people of every ethnicity to support him. BLM of NY figured out how to do the same thing. They offer practical suggestions that are designed to be good for people in general. I can support that.

Prior to publication of BLM-NY’s suggestions, I ran them past a prominent Republican to see what he thought. To my surprise, the prominent Republican — who shall remain nameless for now — told me BLM was thinking too small. So he offered as an alternative some bigger themes that I’ll share with you first because these are quite compatible with BLM’s priorities.

A Prominent Republican’s Vision for Improving Black Lives (because they matter):

Create safer neighborhoods to attract jobs and create optimism.
Fix school bureaucracies in communities where students are failing.
Create apprenticeships for unskilled adults
Address the opiod epidemic directly and by improving the environment.

You probably think those are good priorities. BLM agrees. And if I took it further and asked you which group thinks Charter schools are a good idea, you might be surprised to learn that the answer is “both.” On the big stuff, and on much of the small stuff too, BLM is entirely compatible with Republican ideals. When you are trying to make a deal, it helps to start with the parts upon which you agree.

Now I’ll share with you the BLM-NY list of suggestions. These ideas go directly to improving the credibility of the police. Republicans want the police to be credible too. Republicans also like good data, the rule of law, voting participation, and legal decisions that are free of bias. That’s what BLM-NY is focused on too. Here’s their list. Notice that every suggestion is useful for citizens in general, not just one ethnic group.

Ideas from Black Lives Matter – New York

Prosecute and jail police that falsify reports.
Police must call an ambulance if defendant complains of illness.
Voting rights for people in prison
Independent prosecutors for police killings of unarmed civilians.
Comprehensive national database of police shootings.
New York holiday for Day of Remembrance for victims of police brutality.

I’ll discuss these points in order.

Prosecute and jail police that falsify reports.

I think most Republicans would agree that a police officer who falsifies a police report must be held accountable. Republicans like the rule of law, and they like honesty. So far, BLM and Republicans are on the same page.

Police must call an ambulance if defendant complains of illness.

You might not know that people in police custody have died while begging for medical care that was not granted. I think we’d all want access to emergency medical care if we were in police custody. You might see some abuses of the system, but I think we’d all agree this one is worth discussing.

Voting rights for people in prison

I’ve never understood why prisoners lose the right to vote. Voting makes people feel part of the system. It seems like one of the few psychological influences that can nudge law-breakers toward becoming law-abiding. Realistically, only a small percentage of convicted criminals would bother to vote. The prickly part is that most would (presumably) vote Democrat. But Republicans can compete for those votes, and should. A good start would involve taking the lead in returning the vote to that class of folks.

Independent prosecutors for police killings of unarmed civilians.

Why not try independent prosecutors for police shootings of unarmed civilians? You could test it in one city or more and see how it goes. Budget-wise, I suspect we’d be better off in the long run with this sort of credibility-improving process. Perhaps you’d get less after-verdict violence. It’s worth discussing, and probably worth testing somewhere.

Comprehensive national database of police shootings.

Republicans will argue that the data does not show police are more violent with black suspects. African-Americans will tell you their lived experience says otherwise. BLM-NY offers the only sensible way forward, recommending national standards for reporting police violence against unarmed civilians. Who hates better data?

New York holiday for Day of Remembrance for victims of police brutality.

New York can decide on whether or not it wants a Day of Remembrance for victims of police brutality. I think the idea as proposed is divisive, framing the situation as one in which police are the bad guys. The point of the suggestion is to keep the problem of police violence against unarmed citizens in our thoughts, but I’m sure there’s a more productive way to do that. For example, if BLM and the GOP find a way to work together on some parts of this list, no one will forget that anytime soon. I prefer focusing on the positives.

Now consider how perfect the set-up is for a win-win deal between African-American voters and the GOP. President Trump’s biggest political problem is the perception that he’s a racist. Improving the economy and the job market doesn’t fix that problem, although it helps. But taking seriously BLM-NY’s list of suggestions — in some negotiated and improved form — would be a game-changer.

President Obama was hugely popular among black voters, but there is a sense in the African-American community that he didn’t deliver. Democrats have no charismatic leader at the moment, and not much power at the federal level compared to the GOP. Never before has the GOP been in such a strong position to make a play for a good portion of the African-American vote. All they need to do to get the ball rolling is take BLM-NY’s suggestions seriously as a basis for a deal. And BLM-NY is making that easy by presenting practical ideas that are not race-specific.

I spoke with Hawk again yesterday and both of us had just watched the recent viral video of a police shooting of an unarmed man in a hallway as it had been recorded on the police officer’s body cam. When you see the video you can understand why the cop opened fire. The man was reportedly armed, according to the initial call to police, and refused to keep his hands where he was ordered to keep them. In this case, the body cam protected the police officer as well as the reputation of the police by showing us exactly how the tragedy unfolded. Hawk and I were left wondering if a greater focus on body cams for police would be a practical approach to building confidence between the black community and police. I don’t know the answer, but here again we see a practical idea that I assume Republicans can embrace.

And to that I say, why the hell not?

 

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President Trump’s 2017 Report Card (first draft)

As we approach the holiday season there will be much debate on how President Trump has performed for his first calendar year. As a populist president, I think the best way to judge his performance is by focusing on the issues voters say are their top priorities. Pew Research polled voters to determine their political priorities for 2017. Let’s see how President Trump is doing so far on the top ten priorities according to the public.

Terrorism (76% rated top priority)

ISIS is on the run, thanks in part to President Trump’s loosening of the rules of military engagement, as well as pivoting from a Whack-a-Mole strategy to a total annihilation strategy with no withdrawal date. Both moves are good persuasion. And while President Trump’s “extreme vetting” is unpopular with many citizens, it has probably reduced risk to the homeland. And General Mattis is widely considered to be a strong hire.

     Grade: A

Economy (73% rated top priority)

I’ll give President Obama 75% credit for the strong economy. But I think consumer confidence and the stock market tell us there is optimism about the current administration. That confidence is buoyed by Trump’s reduction in regulations via executive orders, his tough talk on trade, and his persuasion toward a higher GDP that is already becoming self-fulfilling. If people believe the economy will be better next year than this year, they invest this year, thus making next year better. We might see something good come out of tax reform, but I don’t think it will matter as much as people assume.

     Grade: A

Education (69% rated top priority)

I’m not aware of any federal changes in this area that would be big enough to make a difference. But it is also unclear how much the federal government can do on an issue that is managed by the states. Unfortunately for the Trump administration, the mental anchor in our minds for education is Bernie Sanders’ idea of free college. If that’s the standard, the Trump administration is not even in the game.

     Grade: C

Jobs (68% rated top priority)

Unemployment is low. Illegal immigration is down by half. Corporations are bringing manufacturing jobs back to America, at least in part because of Trump’s direct persuasion on this point. A cut in business tax rates could improve things further.

     Grade: A

Health care costs (66% rated top priority)

President Trump offered to sign any health care bill the Republican congress could pass. They tried twice and failed twice. The public sees this as more of a problem with Congress than the presidency, and the public is right. But it is also true that the President did not fully engage his persuasion game on this topic, allowing Republicans to fail miserably. Is that bad? It depends.

I have been saying for months that the only way to get a good health care bill is by letting the Republican Congress fail a few times so they become flexible (more bipartisan) later. President Trump’s potential influence over health care will grow over time as both sides look at a failing Obamacare system and don’t want to explain their failure to voters in 2018. I’m predicting we will have health care legislation before summer, but the only way to get there is by letting both the current system and Congress continue to fail. That is happening.

President Trump did sign an executive order allowing groups to organize to purchase health care insurance. That could help, but we see nothing useful from it yet.

     Grade: Incomplete (with a progress grade of D- so far)

Social Security (60% rated top priority)

Social Security is a Congressional budget issue. But President Trump promises to keep it strong. Not much happening on this topic. But a strong economy is a good foundation for having a solid safety net, and we have that going for us.

     Grade: B

Medicare (59% rated top priority)

Medicare is a Congressional budget issue. I’ve seen nothing significant from President Trump on this topic. But again, a strong economy helps here too.

     Grade: B

Poor and needy (56% rated top priority)

A growing economy is the most effective way to help the poor and needy in the long run, and things are going well on that front. But expect Republican budgets to look “mean” to this demographic.

     Grade: C

Race relations (56% rated top priority)

President Trump is an “America First” president, and that includes treating all legal citizens the same under the law. But the optics of that approach create the impression that the administration is racist for ignoring identity politics and playing hardball with illegal immigrants. In my opinion, the Trump administration has mostly fumbled this issue from the start of the campaign until now. The anti-Trump media is probably at least 60% of the problem in terms of how people feel about this topic, but you can’t blame them for hitting lots of targets in a target-rich environment.

     Grade: F

Reducing Crime (56% rated top priority)

I haven’t noticed any improvement in this area that would be related to the federal government except for a decrease in immigration and an improvement in the economy (which I assume reduces crime, but maybe not).

     Grade: C

You might be wondering about climate change. That issue, to my surprise, is not in the top ten. Likewise, judicial nominations and several other topics I expected to be important are not in the top ten. But those omissions from the top ten probably don’t matter for this exercise because partisans would disagree on what success looks like in most of those areas. Is it a success to nominate qualified conservatives to the courts? It depends on your political affiliations. Is it a success to pull out of the Paris Climate Accord? Again, it depends on your political perspective. And that might account for why the harder-to-score issues rank outside the top ten priorities. We all know what a good economy looks like, but we would disagree on, for example, the optimal size for the military.

I submit my scorecard here as a work in progress, with probable revisions coming based on your critiques.

You might want to read the best book ever written because it also comes in an audio book.

 

 

 

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