Scott Adams's Blog, page 213
May 9, 2018
Episode 43: How to Not Make Slavery Analogies
Talking about the past
Breaking out of our mental prisons in the present
Analogies don’t persuade
Would a poll of Palestinians show what they want?
Iran/Palestinian variables for Iran nuclear talks
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Episode 42: DMZ idea for Korean Talks
Is DMZ location for negotiation or for celebration?
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Episode 41: How to Fund the Wall and sorting out Iran
Visual vs Conceptual Persuasion
Iran’s nuclear data and limitation of inspections
Change is coming for Iran
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Episode 40: Netanyahu’s Presentation on Iran’s Nuclear Program
Scott grades the presentation A+
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May 8, 2018
Episode 37 – North Korea as the key to the Golden Age
North Korea’s Old Plan: Spend all money on nuclear weapons and starve to death
North Korea’s New Plan: Prosperity, peace, security
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Episode 36 – How Chris Hayes escaped the TDS prison…For now
“Watched as much as I could. It’s tough to watch too much”
President doesn’t have much free time to watch event or an insensitive comment?
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Episode 35 – How Dale feels about the good news on North Korea
President Trump is unbound by notions of what is possible.
It’s causing our sense of what’s possible, too change.
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May 4, 2018
Why President Trump Deserves Credit for Progress in North Korea
People keep asking me what President Trump did to deserve credit for progress in North Korea. As a public service, I put together a quick list.
What did President Trump do to deserve credit for progress with North Korea?
A few things.
His “America First” approach provided credibility that the United States has no desire for regime change.
His reputation as a deal-maker offered the possibility of an off-ramp for Kim in which Kim survives and potentially thrives after reunification.
Built a good working relationship with China’s Xi
Built a good working relationship with Japan’s Abe
Built a good working relationship with South Korea’s Moon
Ordered General Mattis, the scariest general in the universe, to demonstrate overwhelming force on their border
Used Syria for missile target practice just in case Kim thought we like to save our ammo.
Got the UN to agree on sanctions
Resisted pressure to go full anti-Putin at a time when we need Russia to present no obstacles to North Korean reunification.
Kept pressure on China for sanctions. Again and again. Publicly, but with complete respect. Used the risk of shame and the hand of friendship at the same time.
Offered no concessions prior to a satisfactory agreement.
Did not believe that the best deal we could get was a nuclear freeze. Went for the whole arsenal, and gave Kim two options on how to lose it all.
Used good-cop/bad-cop persuasion, with Moon expertly playing his part.
Went to war against individual companies and people breaking the sanctions and trading with North Korea. Did not leave the job of stopping cheaters to the home governments that couldn’t or wouldn’t stop them. This was a new and effective strategy, and probably one of the biggest factors in making Kim flexible.
Used visual persuasion of captured tankers. That’s strong persuasion saying, “Don’t try it. We can see you from space.”
Added military unpredictability to the mix (intentionally)
Made the military risk for Kim feel immediate and real, as in Fire and Fury.
“Paced” Kim’s rhetoric, insult for insult, which is actually good persuasion. Trump used humor, which changed the mood from scary to “What is happening?” That is good persuasion technique.
President Trump’s taunt-tweets were personal messages to Kim, which had the effect of treating him like a peer and humanizing the situation in a way we’ve never seen.
Trump expanded the discussion (or agreed to allow it to expand) to include reunification, which makes a nuclear deal far easier to trust and verify while providing a “win” path for Kim.
Squeezed the North Korean economy in escalating steps to persuade Kim he had no hope of riding it out. The continuous squeezing is perfect persuasion because Kim could never know how much worse it could get.
“Fire and Fury” is a combination of fear persuasion and visual persuasion. It is also unusual language from a President of the United States, so you can’t get it out of your head. All of that is top-grade persuasion technique.
—
Those are a few of the reasons President Moon of South Korea said President Trump deserves a Nobel Prize.
My startup, WhenHub, is holding an ICO right now. You won’t want to miss this one.
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April 30, 2018
Fact Checking the Media Claim I am “far right” or “ALT-RIGHT”
You might have noticed the Internet having an aneurism this week after Kanye West retweeted nine separate video clips in which I discussed his tweet about Candace Owens’ conservative views. A number of left-leaning media sites including Buzzfeed, Mediate, Spin, Elle, Washington Post, Business Insider and several others reported the story by labelling me “far right” or “ALT-RIGHT.” I’m sure the various fact-checking sites and media watchers would like to know how accurate that description is. As a public service, I’ll detail some of my political views so you can judge for yourself.
President Obama: I considered him a solid president whose steady hand and personality were a good fit for bringing the U.S. economy back from the brink. I especially appreciated getting past the “first black president” mental barrier, which was huge for our national psychology and brand. But I was to the left of Obama on legalizing weed and gay marriage, to name a few examples. I now think President Trump is the appropriate personality to add jet fuel to an already-solid economy and to shake up our foreign adversaries with his legendary unpredictability. You need the right president for the right situation. I think voters got it right with both presidents.
I never bought into birtherism. I didn’t even care if Obama was technically a citizen. I only cared that he did a good job. Likewise, I don’t care about President Trump’s sex life. I care how well he does the job.
Religion: I’m not a believer. And I’m left of the atheists on the left. My best guess about reality is that we’re a simulation. The quick argument is that an advanced species can create a computer simulation with characters who believe they are real. It is far more likely we are one of the inevitable simulations than the original species.
Party Affiliation: I don’t vote and I don’t belong to a political party. I do that intentionally to reduce my “team bias” when evaluating politics. I have registered and voted in the past. If memory serves me, I registered Independent and voted Democrat at least twice. I have never voted Republican, as far as I can remember.
In the not-too-distant past, Democrats were the better party for achieving social justice of one kind or another. But in 2018, I can marry a dude while smoking a joint. Depending on your state, doctor-assisted dying is legal. And if you discriminate on race or gender, the law and social media will try hard to make sure you regret it. The big social issues that I care about have tilted my way, and Trump-Republicans seem fine with it. So I like to bank my social equality gains and ask myself what Republicans can give me next in the realm of economics and foreign relations.
Gun Control: I’m pro-gun, which is similar to being pro-Constitution. And I’m fine with banning some types of super-killing weapons as well as keeping all guns from nuts. But beyond the commonsense stuff, I recognize that people have different risk profiles and therefore valid differences of opinions on gun risks. A public figure such as myself might feel safer with guns in the house whereas others might feel less safe. There is no “right” answer on guns, just different interests and risks. This makes me similar to Bernie Sanders on guns, I believe. Or close to his view, anyway.
Trade Deals: How would I know what a good trade deal looks like or how to get there? I don’t believe many citizens understand that topic. But I do feel confident in saying that any complicated deal can be improved for your side if you apply some pressure. President Trump is applying pressure. It is neither left nor right politics to say that applying pressure to improve trade deals is a reasonable thing to do.
North Korea: I predicted last year that President Trump had a path to a good result with North Korea. It’s too early to know how all of that turns out, but I think both left and right are cautiously optimistic that something good could happen.
Iran Nuclear Deal: I’m only recently getting up to speed on this topic, so I don’t have an opinion on it, beyond the observation that there are probably ways to improve it.
Healthcare: I favor inexpensive or free medical care for all citizens of the United States. It would be hard for me to see America as “great” without it. But unlike Bernie, I don’t see a way to get there by increasing taxes. I do think we can get there by rule-changes and a greater government focus on technical advancements. President Trump is missing-in-action on this topic, and Congress is the wrong tool for the job because of money and political constipation.
Immigration: I oppose deporting the undocumented immigrants who have been good residents and tax-paying virtual Americans for years. And I always assumed the Trump administration would not act against them once in power, which has been the case. I support “extreme vetting” because that’s the world we live in. Obviously it is bad for wannabe immigrants, but it reduces the risk for Americans and undocumented immigrants who are already here. I favor stronger border security in general, using whatever is the most cost-effective method. On the country ban — that critics call a Muslim ban — I’m okay with letting the Supreme Court figure that out. I appreciate the argument on both sides, but I have a bias toward security.
Free College and Training: I support lifetime free college and vocational training for Americans, but not if it raises taxes. As with the healthcare topic, I believe technology can deliver a free option if we make it a national priority. I recently bought a commercial VR (virtual reality) system for home entertainment, and let me tell you…holy cow. We are not far away from watching a history lesson while being in the scene itself. At the moment, in-person learning is still better than a talking head video. But VR and other advancements will flip that around at some point soon.
Now let’s look at some of the many fake news accusations against me.
Holocaust Denier?
I am routinely accused of being a Holocaust denier. The truth is that I’m a double-holocaust believer. Not only do I believe the Holocaust happened, death camps and all, but I also believe the Armenian genocide happened. That’s two holocausts, if you’re keeping count. Three if you count native Americans.
This fake news about me comes from the fact that I once wrote a blog post saying it is unlikely we know the exact number of people who died in the Holocaust because it would be hard to count. I also believe World War II happened, even though I don’t know the exact death toll, which historians say is somewhere between 50-70 million. If the accurate number turns out to be 71 million, I will still believe World War II happened.
Abortion
My current view on abortion is that men are better off recusing themselves from the law-making process on that question, except where their own money is involved. If the majority of women favor a particular abortion law, I support it too. With an issue as explosive as abortion, society needs laws that are credible so the folks who don’t get the laws they want can still support the system. Men have no special knowledge to add to the abortion question, and we have less skin in the game. This is one of the ways I consider myself left of Bernie. Bernie would have men as equal partners in making laws about abortion. I say women have it covered. I support their majority decisions.
Seth Rich Conspiracist?
I’ve been called a Seth Rich conspiracy theorist. I don’t believe that Hillary Clinton or anyone else ordered a hit on Rich. I have seen no evidence whatsoever of that. But we do have two theories in the public domain of how Wikileaks got the DNC data.
Julian Assange has clearly indicated to the public that he wants us to believe Seth Rich was the source of the data. For context, Wikileaks is an organization dedicated to the truth, and has a perfect record of not being wrong. That doesn’t mean they can’t be wrong/lying/misleading this time.
Intelligence agencies tell us the real perp was a Russian hacker. For context, intelligence agencies are professional liars with a recent history of bias, treachery, deception, lying, and whatever looks a lot like treason. That doesn’t mean they are wrong this time. It does mean they have no credibility.
An independent technical analysis suggests the file transfer speeds were too high for a remote hacker to be the perp. That indicates an inside job, but does not point to Rich in particular. I don’t know how to judge the credibility of that technical analysis.
Those who have read my book Win Bigly know I don’t see reality in terms of true and false. At best, we can put some guesses on the likelihood of one thing being true versus another. So it would never be accurate to say I “believe” any conspiracy theory, including this one. In this case, all we can say with confidence is that one theory on the source of the data comes from a credible source and the other does not.
This is my current thinking on the topic. If I tweeted or said anything that looked crazier than what I just wrote, I was being sloppy in my thinking.
Men’s Rights Activist?
I’ve been called a Men’s Rights Activist (MRA). That is fake news. The rumor stems from a blog post from several years ago in which I insulted Men’s Rights Activists for being ridiculous. That’s my entire lifetime involvement with the movement. The fake news that I am MRA is often supported by the fake news that I’m a misogynist which I discuss next.
Misogynist?
If you do a Google search for my name, you’ll often see a fake quote that is attributed to me. It goes like this: “The reality is that women are treated differently by society for exactly the same reason that children and the mentally handicapped are treated differently.”
Ouch! It would be awful if I actually said that. And I didn’t. But here’s the weird part: Those are my exact words from a blog post!
How can my exact words be a fake quote if they are, well, my exact words???
Easy, as it turns out.
What my devious critics cleverly leave out of the quote is the context of the blog post and the punchline of the joke. The context was about debates on important gender-related topics, and the punchline was “It’s just easer this way for everyone.” In other words, men often avoid debating with women on gender topics because there is plenty of risk to the man’s career and happiness but nothing to gain.
The structure of the joke is that the first two items in the list (babies and mentally handicapped people) are supposed to bias you to think you know what I will say about the third item (women), then I give you the surprise twist, thus exposing your own bias, which is the joke. My point in the blog post was that men typically take the path of least resistance, as do all humans, and arguing with women about gender-related issues is a high risk strategy men typically try to avoid because there is no upside. My critics then proved me right by labelling me a misogynist for bringing up the topic in a way they didn’t appreciate. They went on to forever destroy my reputation while reducing my income by perhaps 30%. The reaction I got from women was exactly my point. I doubt I have ever been so right about anything in my life. Unfortunately.
In my book Win Bigly, I make the case that no one changes their mind because of facts or better arguments, or at least rarely so. But some arguments are safer than others. Men can generally debate other men without risk, but when men debate women on the topic of gender issues, the risk involves complete career destruction for the man. Women don’t have that kind of risk.
I am not aware of anyone who disagrees with my point, once I clarify it. But I have apologized for accidentally offending people who didn’t recognize my poorly-executed joke as a joke. I think that’s fair.
Regular Guest on InfoWars?
I have appeared several times on Alex Jones’ InfoWars. They are always very kind and professional to me. I have also appeared on CNN, FOX News, MSNBC, CNBC, PBS, and dozens of local stations. In the past two years I probably did a hundred interviews on media platforms ranging from the far left to the far right. My brand is Switzerland. I’ll go wherever there is an audience that wants to hear my message.
The criticism about InfoWars in particular is that appearing on that platform gives oxygen to the various real and alleged conspiracy theories that are often discussed there. I totally understand that point, and I reject it in favor of my right to speak on any platform I want. If I employed the “Conspiracy Theory Standard” I couldn’t appear on CNN, MSNBC, or FOX News. Your mileage might vary, but I consider the following stories to be on the same ethical plane as conspiracy theories.
Birtherism
Russian Collusion
Paris Climate Agreement
Seth Rich murdered by Clinton
Benghazi
President Trump is mentally incompetent
Charlottesville hoax
Syrian chemical weapons
Serge Kovaleski hoax
WMD in Iraq
Dossier
Anything that Clapper and Brennan say
The “racist dog whistle” theory of everything
I could make the list a lot longer, but you see the point. One person’s legitimate news is another person’s conspiracy theory. We don’t live in a world in which we can know what is true and what isn’t. We sometimes think we do. But we don’t.
I also think the CNN and MSNBC coverage of Stormy Daniels started out fair but it transitioned from legitimate news to revenge porn. My point is that if I use my personal compass of moral outrage to decide which media platform to appear on, I’d have to reject all of them.
I see InfoWars the same way I see the other major media platforms. They are tools for my message. My use of a tool does not endorse the unrelated ideas of others who use the same tools. And following Kanye West’s lead, I proclaim myself a free thinker who will talk to anyone from the far left to the far right.
Racist?
People call me a racist-by-association for writing about President Trump’s talent for persuasion. Below is a sample of my writings on the topic of race so you can judge for yourself. A quick summary is that I’m pro-Kaepernick (for his effectiveness and heart), in favor of slavery reparations in the form of free college for 25 years funded by a tax on the rich, a fan of Kanye West’s recent activism, and an even bigger supporter of BLM GNY leader Hawk Newsome’s rational and effective leadership. If I’m a racist, I’m doing a terrible job of it.
Persuasion Advice for African-Americans
The De-Hitlerization of your Brain
Why Black Lives Matter (BLM) are Natural Allies (or should be)
Periscope about BLM GNY leader Hawk Newsome’s Persuasion
I don’t believe President Trump is a racist in any meaningful sense of the word. But I have graded him an “F” for race relations for not effectively dealing with the issue. My view is that the left has whipped up a racial frenzy, for political reasons, by taking this president out of context time and again. They have been magnificently successful, especially with the Charlottesville hoax. (The ordinary explanation for President Trump’s “fine people” comment is that he didn’t know exactly who attended the event, but reasonably assumed — as I did — that there were non-racist folks there protesting the removal of confederate statues. And that was true. But there were not many of them.)
Confederate Statues: They are deeply offensive to a lot of people on my team (America) and I favor removing them for that reason alone. Statues are decorations. You wouldn’t decorate your own house in a way that offended your friends. Let’s not decorate America in a way that offends many citizens. History is for books, not statues.
Okay, so there you have my politics and my side of the fake news stories about me. I’ll probably update this as needed.
Do I seem ALT-RIGHT or far-right to you?
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April 29, 2018
My North Korea Blog Posts – Indexed for Historians
As I watch news coverage about peace on the Korean Peninsula, I keep hearing commentators say, “No one saw it coming.” That isn’t entirely true. For the benefit of history, I’ll document my own evolution of thought on this topic. I believe it is the subject I have written about the most in the past year. My interest in North Korea stems partly from not wanting to die in a giant ball of nuclear fire, and also because I saw a skillset in President Trump that seemed ideally suited for solving this seemingly unsolvable problem. I don’t have to tell you that was a lonely opinion to hold for a year. But I’m getting used to that feeling.
My opinion about North Korea was that we were dealing with a psychological problem — literally a set of illusions — masquerading as a set of physical problems. If we could figure out how to think about the problem right, we’d find a solution without firing a shot. Luckily for the world, the United States had recently elected a President with every tool needed for that job. To me, it seemed like a once-ever chance to solve the unsolvable. And fingers crossed, we might be close to an outcome that is not just a fix, but something beautiful.
How did President Trump get us from the brink of nuclear war to something closer to loving thy neighbor? He did it by making everyone involved think differently. North Korea probably thought about its risks differently as it became apparent the sanctions were only going to get worse, never eased. China probably came to think differently about its reputation and brand in the region, as well as its risks to trade with the United States. The shipping companies that were violating the sanctions on North Korea came to see their risks differently as we photographed and publicized the capture of ships. Without firing a shot, President Trump made every participant think differently.
Starting about a year ago, I imagined I might have a useful role in helping people think more productively about North Korea. And so I made the topic my obsession for a year. I blogged and Periscoped about the potential for a peaceful end to the North Korean war because I wanted people to think it was possible. We humans don’t act on the things we believe to be impossible.
I figured the right people would see my writing. A number of people in the Trump administration read this blog. I know because I’ve heard from them directly. And we also heard in the news that Kim Jong Un’s operatives were monitoring American pundit opinions about President Trump to understand him better. I was one of the most accurate predictors of President Trump’s rise to the presidency, so I would expect North Korean operatives to know about my blog and my book, Win Bigly. In all likelihood, I had the audience I needed. I wanted both sides to start imagining peace, to borrow a powerful idea from Master Persuader John Lennon. We pursue what we imagine is possible, not what we imagine is not.
And so I started writing about various ways we could think about North Korea differently. The details didn’t matter as much as the exercise itself. If we can all spend some time simply imagining a peaceful outcome in which all sides win, it becomes an option. Until you can imagine peace, it is not a practical option.
Imagination is my game.
Let me show you how I played it, in case you missed it as it happened. I’ll start with an article from The Sun that summarizes my writing on the topic so you can see it in context. Dilbert Scoops ’em All On the Inside Story of Trump Korea Talks
Here are my blog posts on North Korea, in chronological order. Most of them are linked in the article:
The North Korea Reframe – April 2017
Solving the North Korea Situation – July 2017
People Keep Telling Me to Stop Blogging about North Korea – July 2017
Why North Korea and the United States are Near War – September 2017
The North Korea Reframe – Oct 2017
Is President Trump’s Nuclear Button Tweet a Sign of Insanity? – January 2018
How North Korea Can Become Switzerland of the East – January 2018
And then another article summarizing my blogging on the topic:
American Thinker – Why Trump Actually Could Succeed with North Korea
I have no direct evidence that anything I have written or blogged made a difference to the outcome. As I said, President Trump had all the tools to get it done, and I have told you many times that people who have persuasion talent approach things in similar ways. I would expect President Trump to be thinking of North Korea as a psychological problem, not a physical one, and we see evidence he guarded against the physical with shows of force while playing the psychological game. And apparently winning.
But future Nobel Prize winner President Trump isn’t the only winner here. Kim Jong Un is bringing his game too. North Korea could be on the verge of an economic boom the likes of which we rarely see.
At least that’s how I imagine it going.
If you want to predict the future using what I call the Persuasion Filter, read my influential bestseller, Win Bigly.
If you want to make money for what you already know by sitting on the couch and talking to strangers, check out my startup’s new app called Interface by WhenHub. And for people who like to diversify their ICOs and ITOs, check out our new offering at interface.whenhub.com.
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