Steven Sandor's Blog, page 98
May 27, 2015
FIFA says it is cooperating with US investigators, is an “injured party”
It’s CONCACAF and CONMEBOL, it’s not us. We are an “injured party” and will cooperate with American investigators.
That’s the tone of the response from FIFA headquarters in the wake of news that six high-ranking soccer officials have been arrested in Switzerland — with plans to deport them to the United States to face fraud and racketeering charges.
In a release issued by FIFA, the headline states that the world football organization an “injured party.” Basically, FIFA is telling the world that it’s a victim.
Here is the text of the release:
FIFA welcomes actions that can help contribute to rooting out any wrongdoing in football. We understand that today’s actions by the Swiss Federal Office of Justice on behalf of the US authorities and the Swiss Office of the Attorney General (initiated by FIFA through the submission of the file on the 2018/2022 FIFA World Cup bidding process) relate to different matters.
Firstly, the arrest of six individuals this morning in Zurich concerns investigations by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of the State of New York. The Swiss authorities, acting on behalf of their US counterparts, arrested the individuals for activities carried out in relation with CONCACAF and CONMEBOL business.
The second instance follows FIFA’s initiative of presenting the file on the 2018/2022 FIFA World Cup bidding process to the Swiss Office of the Attorney General in November 2014. The authorities are taking the opportunity of the FIFA Congress to interview those FIFA Executive Committee members who are not Swiss residents who voted back in 2010 and are still in office.
Today, the Swiss Office of the Attorney General announced that it has opened criminal proceedings against persons unknown in relation to the 2018/2022 FIFA World Cup™ bidding process. FIFA is fully cooperating with the investigation and is supporting the collection of evidence in this regard. As noted by the Swiss authorities, this collection of evidence is being carried out on a cooperative basis.
We are pleased to see that the investigation is being energetically pursued for the good of football and believe that it will help to reinforce measures that FIFA has already taken.
From the U.S. Department of Justice, here’s the list of those charged:
As set forth in the indictment, the defendants and their co-conspirators fall generally into three categories: soccer officials acting in a fiduciary capacity within FIFA and one or more of its constituent organizations; sports media and marketing company executives; and businessmen, bankers and other trusted intermediaries who laundered illicit payments.
Nine of the defendants were FIFA officials by operation of the FIFA statutes, as well as officials of one or more other bodies:
Jeffrey Webb: Current FIFA vice president and executive committee member, CONCACAF president, Caribbean Football Union (CFU) executive committee member and Cayman Islands Football Association (CIFA) president.
Eduardo Li: Current FIFA executive committee member-elect, CONCACAF executive committee member and Costa Rican soccer federation (FEDEFUT) president.
Julio Rocha: Current FIFA development officer. Former Central American Football Union (UNCAF) president and Nicaraguan soccer federation (FENIFUT) president
Costas Takkas: Current attaché to the CONCACAF president. Former CIFA general secretary.
Jack Warner: Former FIFA vice president and executive committee member, CONCACAF president, CFU president and Trinidad and Tobago Football Federation (TTFF) special adviser.
Eugenio Figueredo: Current FIFA vice president and executive committee member. Former CONMEBOL president and Uruguayan soccer federation (AUF) president.
Rafael Esquivel: Current CONMEBOL executive committee member and Venezuelan soccer federation (FVF) president
Jose Maria Marin: Current member of the FIFA organizing committee for the Olympic football tournaments. Former CBF president.
Nicolas Leoz: Former FIFA executive committee member and CONMEBOL president.
Four of the defendants were sports marketing executives:
Alejandro Burzaco: Controlling principal of Torneos y Competencias S.A., a sports marketing business based in Argentina, and its affiliates.
Aaron Davidson: President of Traffic Sports USA Inc. (Traffic USA).
Hugo and Mariano Jinkis: Controlling principals of Full Play Group S.A., a sports marketing business based in Argentina, and its affiliates.
And one of the defendants was in the broadcasting business but allegedly served as an intermediary to facilitate illicit payments between sports marketing executives and soccer officials:
Jose Margulies: Controlling principal of Valente Corp. and Somerton Ltd.
The Department of Justice also unsealed the details regarding previous guilty pleas it had exacted, including Traffic, the company which markets the North American Soccer League and still has a stake in the Carolina RailHawks. As well, Davidson, listed above, is the chairman of the NASL board.
On July 15, 2013, the defendant Daryll Warner, son of defendant Jack Warner and a former FIFA development officer, waived indictment and pleaded guilty to a two-count information charging him with wire fraud and the structuring of financial transactions.
On Oct. 25, 2013, the defendant Daryan Warner waived indictment and pleaded guilty to a three-count information charging him with wire fraud conspiracy, money laundering conspiracy and the structuring of financial transactions. Daryan Warner forfeited over $1.1 million around the time of his plea and has agreed to pay a second forfeiture money judgment at the time of sentencing.
On Nov. 25, 2013, the defendant Charles Blazer, the former CONCACAF general secretary and a former FIFA executive committee member, waived indictment and pleaded guilty to a 10-count information charging him with racketeering conspiracy, wire fraud conspiracy, money laundering conspiracy, income tax evasion and failure to file a Report of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts (FBAR). Blazer forfeited over $1.9 million at the time of his plea and has agreed to pay a second amount to be determined at the time of sentencing.
On Dec. 12, 2014, the defendant José Hawilla, the owner and founder of the Traffic Group, the Brazilian sports marketing conglomerate, waived indictment and pleaded guilty to a four-count information charging him with racketeering conspiracy, wire fraud conspiracy, money laundering conspiracy and obstruction of justice. Hawilla also agreed to forfeit over $151 million, $25 million of which was paid at the time of his plea.
On May 14, 2015, the defendants Traffic Sports USA Inc. and Traffic Sports International Inc. pleaded guilty to wire fraud conspiracy.
All money forfeited by the defendants is being held in reserve to ensure its availability to satisfy any order of restitution entered at sentencing for the benefit of any individuals or entities that qualify as victims of the defendants’ crimes under federal law.
According to the prosecutors, because CONCACAF conducted business in Miami and New York City — and there were American financial institutions used, that the United States does indeed have jurisdiction to prosecute non-Americans and have these people extradited from Switzerland.
“The world is not insular to any country anymore,” were some of the final words uttered in the stream of the press conference, from U.S. Attorney Kelly Currie. He said it took years to put this case together, partnered with the American Internal Revenue Service.
“This was the beginning, not the end.”
Fallout from FIFA arrests might be felt in Canada
From 2013: CONCACAF President Jeffrey Webb meets with CSA President Victor Montagliani and the national men’s team.
Trying to predict the aftermath of Tuesday’s FIFA arrests is like trying to gather up all the buckshot that’s been sprayed out of a cannon.
And, patching together my off-the-record sources, other writers’ analyses and news off the wire makes for a column that is far too speculative for my usual comfort level. But, this FIFA news is so remarkably different in terms of scope and possible effects, that I feel I need to tackle it in some way. So, speculative it shall be.
First off, if what you will read below sounds like I am defending the corruption and fraud alleged by the U.S. agents, I’m not. But, lately, I’ve been put in the un-fucking-enviable position of devil’s advocate, and it’s making me come off like a slimeball. A couple of weeks ago, I noted that the ravings of the Internet mob should not influence the punishments handed down to the idiots who, outside of BMO Field after a TFC game, launched a #FHRITP tirade on camera. Now, in questioning American motives (and timing) for these charges against FIFA officials, I’m going to look like a jerk again.
Sigh.
The arrests of six key FIFA officials, including CONCACAF President Jeffrey Webb, came just a couple of days before the 209 member associations were to vote in presidential elections. Sepp Blatter, the domo of the old guard, looked like a lock to win. But, the United States Soccer Federation was lobbying hard for underdog Prince Ali bin Hussein. Voila! Thanks to an extradition treaty with Switzerland, and under sweeping anti-fraud legislation that, ahem, “allows” the Americans to snatch their quarries even if they’re half a world away, and many in Blatter’s inner circle are out of the way.
Now, we can debate the international holy-crap-that’s-scary-and-I’d-rather-let-the-terrorists-win ramifications of laws that allow the U.S. to arrest people in other countries, simply because they were using American services or American-based Internet service providers. It’s all very Big Brother. And, as much as FIFA needs reform, it gives me the crime-and-punishment heebie jeebies. I’ll leave it at this: If you think Canada’s Bill C-51 is seriously problematic, but don’t have an issue with Americans using sweeping anti-fraud laws to prosecute foreigners, you may just be a tad hypocritical on how you think people’s rights should be protected.
Now, it would be conspiracy-theory thinking to the max to suggest that American prosecutors and the USSF were acting in concert. It takes a long time to gather evidence and make sure all the legal ducks are in neat rows. But, as you pull the camera wide, the timing of this all feels, well, convenient.
And this is where it gets interesting. Will other federations, especially the Blatter loyalists, see this as U.S. lawmakers arresting officials, or the USSF with a knife out?
And let’s bring this back to one federation, specifically. The Canadian Soccer Association. Let’s not discount this fact: The CSA has been at or near the top of the FIFA boy-scout list. From the Women’s U-19s in 2002, to the U-20 World Cup in ‘07, to the Women’s World Cup, scheduled to start June 6 — we’ve been there at every turn, showing off just how ready we are for the 2026 World Cup. We took the bullets on the artificial turf PR battle; FIFA badly wants artificial turf to gain worldwide acceptance, and we gladly carried that cross for them.
So what of us loyalist Canadians?
Partners, not friends
There is a working relationship between the Canadian Soccer Association and the USSF; but to suggest that it’s a friendly relationship would be an exaggeration.
In the most recent issue (No. 5) of Plastic Pitch, CSA president Victor Montagliani summed up the relationship.
“Until two to three years ago, the relationship was non-existent. Basically, we were a foregone conclusion to our friends from the south. But we have strengthened our relationship, first with the USSF, and now we have better relationships at the MLS level, and the NASL level. Our relationships are improving but, remember, it’s been just two or three years.”
In that same issue, former CSA president Dominique Maestracci said that the current system used by Major League Soccer, which allows the Canadians teams to carry only a minimum of three Canadian players each, was intended to be a one-year Band-Aid deal. But he said the Americans went back on a handshake deal, and we’re stuck with what we have now.
While Canada can place up to 16 players (on our dime) in the NWSL, and has Canadian teams now in MLS, NASL and the USL, the relationship with the USSF is not rosy. And, any progress that has been made in the last two or three years will be obliterated if what’s seen as a U.S.-led action costs Canada in any way, or if it casts a shadow over the Women’s World Cup that’s scheduled to begin in Edmonton on June 6.
And, any break in the relationship between the Americans and Canadians affects not only international competitions, but our MLS, NASL and USL teams.
In that same interview, Montagliani expressed frustration with MLS and NASL, who allow Canadian teams to treat American players as domestics, but forbid American teams from treating Canadians as domestic players.
“In regards to seeing Canadian players as domestics, we respectfully disagree in regards to their position,” says Montagliani. “Our position is clear, from a legal standpoint and from a moral standpoint.”
Nuclear option
Montagliani has never spoken about what I am about to write about next. The nuclear option. But I’ve heard it whispered in Canadian soccer circles, though — that we in Canada should require our teams to treat Americans as foreigners. They will tit. We will tat. And if our relationship becomes more strained, does that put us closer to Defcon One?
Do we see the Americans as friends? When it comes to soccer politics, absolutely not. Montagliani again: “For me, it’s not about growing the game. It’s about growing the Canadian game. And acquiescence to the United States is not the way to do it. The way to do it is to develop a real partnership, a real relationship and have meaningful debate between us. Look, I don’t wake up in the morning and wonder what I can do to help U.S. soccer. I don’t. And, to be fair, I’m sure they don’t think about what they can do to help Canadian soccer, either.”
Of course, all of these musings would be moot if FIFA were to suspend the Americans for political or judicial interference with football. Remember, FIFA expects all corruption charges to be handled by its Ethics Committee; to not allow FIFA to police itself is to risk banishment.
And, with our soccer pyramid being so intertwined with the Americans, I can’t even begin to imagine if that road is the one taken.
(UPDATE: We now have news that NASL CEO Aaron Davidson, who has been interviewed many times on this site, will be charged in relation to this sting)
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May 24, 2015
Quintessentially Canadian Power Rankings, MLS Week 12/NASL Week 8
Allan Zebie
Four of the five Canadian MLS and NASL teams enjoyed winning weekends.
The highlight was John Smits’s addition to the Canadians-played list. After spending the first six NASL games, Canadian Championship matches and even his on-loan time to the Montreal Impact as a back-up, the NASL Golden Glove winner got to start for the Eddies this weekened. He made several point-blank-range stops and was named man of the match in a 4-2 win over Atlanta, including former FCE teammates Kyle Porter and Dominic Oppong.
Off the field, there was some good news as well. FCE’s Allan Zebie, who looks to have claimed a starting fullback spot after making the jump from the academy to the first team this past off-season, was signed to a contract extension that keeps him with the Eddies till 2017. Zebie is also rocketing up the Canadian minutes-played charts.
On the other side the charts: Of MLS and NASL teams that have played Canadians this season, the Montreal Impact are now dead last in terms of minutes given to players from this country. The Impact are averaging just 28.3 minutes per game of time given to Canadian players.
FC Edmonton is averaging more than 10 times that amount, at more than 305 minutes per game played by Canadians.
MLS AND NASL MINUTES BY PLAYER, THE CANADIANS (MLS AFTER 12 WEEKS, NASL AFTER 8 WEEKS):
1. Russell Teibert, VAN, MLS, 760 (10)
2. Ashtone Morgan, TFC, MLS, 746 (9)
3. Dominic Oppong, ATL, NASL, 675 (8)
4. Kyle Porter, ATL, NASL, 634 (8)
5. Mallan Roberts, FCE, NASL, 630 (7)
6. Sam Adekugbe, VAN, MLS, 615 (7)
7. Carl Haworth, OTT, NASL, 607 (7)
8. Jonathan Osorio, TFC, MLS, 596 (9)
9. Cyle Larin, ORL, MLS, 591 (9)
10. Eddie Edward, FCE, NASL, 570 (7)
11. Julian de Guzman, OTT, NASL, 530 (6)
12. Marcel de Jong, SKC, MLS, 453 (6)
13. Nana Attakora, SAS, NASL, 450 (5)
14. Karl Ouimette, NYRB, MLS, 322 (4)
15. Drew Beckie, OTT, NASL, 316 (5)
16. Allan Zebie, FCE, NASL, 281 (4)
17. Frank Jonke, FCE, NASL, 277 (4)
18. Adrian Cann, SAS, NASL, 270 (3)
19. Mason Trafford, OTT, NASL, 180 (2)
20. Patryk Misik, OTT, NASL, 165 (4)
21. Kianz Froese, VAN, MLS, 142 (5)
22. Sadi Jalali, FCE, NASL, 124 (3)
23. Kyle Bekker, FCD, MLS, 104 (5)
24. Michael Nonni, FCE, NASL, 104 (4)
25. Patrice Bernier, MTL, MLS 102 (4)
T26.John Smits, FCE, NASL, 90 (1)
T26. Maxim Tissot, MTL, MLS 90 (1)
28. Mauro Eustaquio, OTT, NASL, 69 (2)
29. Hanson Boakai, FCE, NASL, 60 (3)
30. Jeremy Gagnon-Lapare, MTL, MLS, 6 (1)
MLS AND NASL MINUTES BY PLAYER, THE CANADIAN MAYBES — PLAYERS WHO COULD BE ELIGIBLE FOR CANADA, BUT ARE ELIGIBLE FOR OTHER NATIONS AND HAVE NOT COMMITTED TO CANADA (MLS AFTER 12 WEEKS, NASL AFTER 8 WEEKS):
1. Ethan Finlay, CLB 899 (11)
2. Steven Vitoria, PHI 810 (9)
3. Tesho Akindele, FCD 733 (12)
TEAM RANKINGS, MINUTES PLAYED BY CANADIANS IN 2015 (INCLUDES BOTH SUREFIRES and MAYBES); RANKED BY AVERAGE MINUTES PER GAME:
FC Edmonton, NASL, 2136/7 GP (305.1) (+5.4)
Ottawa, NASL, 1867/7 GP (266.7) (+9)
Atlanta, NASL, 1309/8 GP (163.6) (+2.3)
Toronto FC, MLS, 1342/10 GP (134.2) (+4.3)
Vancouver, MLS, 1517/13 GP (116.7) (-4.6)
San Antonio, NASL 720/7 GP (102.9) (+12.9)
Columbus, MLS, 899/11 GP (81.7) (-0.7)
FC Dallas, MLS, 838/12 GP (69.8) (-1.5)
Philadelphia, MLS, 810/13 GP (62.3) (-5.2)
Orlando City, MLS, 591/12 GP (49.3) (+3.2)
Sporting Kansas City, MLS, 453/12 GP (37.8) (-7.5)
New York Red Bulls, MLS 322/11 GP (29.3) (+6)
Montreal, MLS, 198/7 GP (28.3) (-3.5)
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It “could have been 9-6″: Eddies win high-scoring affair, but Smits named man of the match
Atlanta keeper Stewart Ceus dives, but can’t stop Lance Laing’s free kick from going in. PHOTO: TONY LEWIS/FC EDMONTON
It’s not often when there are six goals in a game — and the winning team scores four of them — that a goalkeeper is named the man of the match.
But that was the case Sunday, as FC Edmonton wrapped up the home portion of the NASL spring season with a 4-2 win over the Atlanta Silverbacks.
John Smits, who got his first ever career NASL win over the Silverbacks, made his first start of the season and made a series of saves on point-blank chances.
“A lot of credit has to go to John Smits,” coach Colin Miller said after the game. “The score today could have been 9-6.”
Smits won the Golden Glove award last season for having the top goals-against average in the league in 2014; but he had been reduced the back-up role behind Matt VanOekel in 2015. But Matt VanOekel was unavailable today due to injury and Smits got the chance to go into goal — and try to shore up a defence that had given up a league-worst 15 goals over their first six games of the season.
Add to that, the need to recover after Wednesday’s heartbreaking 96th-minute Amway Canadian Championship elimination at the hands of the Vancouver Whitecaps.
The Eddies have given up four goals this season in the first 90 seconds of games; and they tried their darndest to do it again, but Smits made a fantastic double save to keep the Silverbacks at bay. Off a free kick, Atlanta defender Simon Mensing rose and directed a header just inside the post. Smits dove to palm it away, then stopped Rauwshan MacKenzie’s attempt to put away the rebound.
“I was caught in two minds at first,” said Smits. “My first instinct was to come out an try to punch out the ball but, then, I thought it would be a shame if I missed it, so I decided to trust my reactions.”
Before the 20-minute mark, Silverbacks striker Matt Horth was sent in on a clear breakaway; Smits charged off his line to stop the chance — and didn’t allow a rebound.
“You have to play every game like it’s your last,” said Smits — who noted he played more minutes Sunday than in the rest of the season and preseason combined.
Smits’ early saves loomed even larger when the Eddies were able to take the lead. Just before half time, Lance Laing ripped a free kick inside the post, choosing to go with power. Atlanta keeper Stewart Ceus had no chance.
Now, with the lead, the Eddies came out in the second half looking to put the game away — and send home FCE alumni Kyle Porter and Dominic Oppong, who both started for the Silverbacks, back to Atlanta unhappy.
Laing, as he has done so often this year, kickstarted another chance that led to a goal. His deep, far-post cross was headed across goal by Tomi Ameobi and into the path of Ritchie Jones, who nodded the ball in.
Ameobi had to leave the game after a nasty challenge, but the resulting free kick led to FCE’s third goal, as Daryl Fordyce’s near-post effort sneaked underneath Ceus, who had looked to have made the dive in time, but couldn’t keep the ball out.
(Additional note: After the game, Ameobi had a walking boot on and was on crutches as he left Clarke Field. X-Rays are expected tomorrow).
But, at 3-0, the game wasn’t over. Sub Jaime Chavez got a goal back for the Silverbacks when he out-leaped FCE centre back Albert Watson for a far-post cross.
Smits then was called in to make two point-blank stops on Atlanta striker Shaka Bangura — on one of the efforts, he got just enough of the shot to tip it off the bar.
FCE defender Kareem Moses, who came into the game early in the first half after fullback Eddie Edward left with an injury, put the Eddies up 4-1. Laing’s cross skipped once in the area before a crouching Moses headed it into the goal.
But, the game wasn’t done; a ball headed across goal by Atlanta’s Christoper Christian was turned into his own goal by Fordyce. The generous NASL official scorers gave the goal to Christian.
Despite the 4-2 result, you look back at the Horth chance, the two Bangura chances, the double-save to start the game — and you see an Eddies team that still needs to address defensive issues. They lead the league with 15 goals for (after seven games) and 17 against.
“It’s easy to be critical,” said Miller. “But I’ve got to be very proud of them, with the amount of games they’ve had, the amount of travel they’ve had.”
And with Cup and league games crowding the Eddies schedule over the past few weeks, Miller said fatigue has to be a factor in some of the defensive mistakes the team has made.
Atlanta coach Gary Smith, whose team came into the game boasting the league’s best defensive record, rued the series of missed chances early in the game.
“You have to take advantage of your positive spells in the game. We didn’t do that.”
The Eddies now play their next three on the road, and won’t play again at Clarke Field until they host Atlanta on July 26. Their next “home” game will go July 5 — in Fort McMurray. The long absence is because Clarke Field is needed as the main practice facility for the Women’s World Cup, and FIFA is taking over the venue next weekend.
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May 22, 2015
One in nearly 1.14 million: How FC Edmonton’s last two ACC losses defied the odds
THIS ARTICLE is also slated for the upcoming (sixth) issue of PLASTIC PITCH. But, because of its timeliness, it is being previewed here — and I hope it gives those who haven’t yet seen the magazine the chance to see some of the kind of work we do.
In the first-season finale of The Flash, Dr. Martin Stein — one half of the superhero, Firestorm and a brilliant scientist — tries to explain how chance works to Eddie Thawne, a cop who doesn’t have a scientific mind.
Stein talks about how, despite all of the experiments and hyoptheses, science cannot discard the “wild card of coincidence.”
Is FC Edmonton the wild card of coincidence when it comes to soccer in Canada?
How about this: That the mathematical chance of FC Edmonton losing in the semifinal stage of the Amway Canadian Championship — on goals scored in the 96th minute of the second leg — is one in 1,137,777.77.
Think of how rare it is for there to be six or more minutes of time added on to a game. Then, think of this: In the semifinals of both the 2014 and 2015 Amway Canadian Championship, the Eddies were eliminated by goals scored in the 96th minute of the second legs.
In 2014, it was a Patrice Bernier penalty kick that gave Montreal a 5-4 aggregate win over the Eddies. In 2015, Matias Laba poked a shot through keeper Matt VanOekel that sent the Whitecaps through 3-2 on aggregate.
So, all things being equal, if a bookie was to give you fair odds two years ago, and you had bet just one dollar on the Eddies losing to Montreal and then Vancouver on 96th-minute second-leg goals, you could have been in line for a windfall of over $1.1 million.
How did we get to this calculation?
First, the odds are 3:1 (or, one in four) that Edmonton would beat the Ottawa Fury two years in a row and qualify for the semifinal.
That’s based on the 50-50 assumption that, all things being equal, the Eddies had a one in four chance of winning the preliminary round two years in a row. The Fury also had a one in four chance of sweeping the two series, and that the odds are two in four that the teams would have split the two encounters.
According to Inpredictable.com(LINK HERE), there is about a 1.5 per cent chance of a close/tied match featuring a game-altering goal after 95 minutes.
But, to even get to that point, you have to figure in the odds of being tied/close after two legs.
So, according to Soccer By the Numbers(LINK HERE), the odds of a tie game in the English Premier League are 24.63 per cent. That’s about one in four. We used that as a baseline for frequency of draws.
To be tied/close in each of the semifinals two years in a row is one in 16 (¼x¼). Multiply that with the Eddies odds of making it to the semis two years in a row, (1/16×1/4). Crunch the numbers, and it gives just a one in 64 chance that the Eddies would be that close in two consecutive semis.
Then, at 1.5 per cent, the odds are 3/200 that a goal would be scored to change the tie that late in the game. Two years in a row: That would be 225/1,000,000. Now, you have to account that the odds would be just in four that the Eddies would be the team that would give up the goal both years in a row. So, now it’s 225/4,000,000.
Multiply 225/4,000,000 by 1/64 (the Eddies chances of being tied in a semifinal two years in a row), and you get the final odds: 225/256,000,000.
Simplify that, and the odds are one in 1,137,777.777.
These numbers were verified by Byron Schmuland, a mathematical and stastical sciences professor at the University of Alberta.
“Let’s look at a single season. Using your numbers, the chance that the Eddies make it to the semifinals, only to lose by a tie-breaking goal at the 96th minute is 3/3200: 12×14× 3200×12=33200.
“The chance that this happens two seasons in a row is the product of this number with itself: (3/3200)× (3/3200) = 9/10,240,000 = 1/1,137,777.”
But, Schmuland warns that — as we stated over and over — that this is an “all things being equal” scenario.
“Probability calculations like this are most meaningful in highly artificial situations like throwing dice, picking lottery numbers, or spinning roulette wheels. In the real world, the assumptions that underlie these calculations may be only approximately true. As long as you don’t take these calculations too seriously, and take it in a spirit of fun,everythingis correct.”
That’s echoed by Sam Gregory, a soccer analytics expert for Sportsnet who also ran the numbers.
“These are the odds if every event is independent of one and other. So I’d say something like ‘The probability of these two outcomes happening in back to back years by chance are 1/1.2 million,’ otherwise there is some underlying factor, which there almost certainly is.”
The factors? OK, for one, the Eddies would likely be favourites over Ottawa in both of the preliminary round series. But, as the underdogs in the semifinal, the Eddies would be considered longshots to be tied with MLS teams that late into the second leg of their semifinal second legs. So, odds can be stretched either way.
No matter what you think of the odds, it’s a shocking coincidence — and one that should only add to the legend of Cup competition in Canada.
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May 21, 2015
Fath gives his thumbs-up to NASL’s Miami expansion
Miami FC investors Paolo Maldini and Riccardo Silva.
FC Edmonton owner Tom Fath has given his full backing of the NASL’s Miami FC expansion franchise.
On Wednesday, the league announced that it would be adding its fourth Florida franchise in time for the 2016 season. The team’s investors include sports media mogul Riccardo Silva and Italian football legend Paolo Maldini.
Of course, with a team just up the highway in Fort Lauderdale, and Jacksonville and Tampa also in NASL, those outside the state of Florida have every right to wonder if the league is too focused on one state. Sure, more expansion teams will come but, as it stands, four of the 12 NASL teams will be located in the Sunshine State.
But Fath said the key to the league’s growth is having the right kind of investor.
“We want to grow with good owners, and this is a good owner,” he said on Wednesday night, as he watched his Eddies battle the Vancouver Whitecaps in Canadian Championship play. “We feel that Miami is a large enough market, and far away enough from Fort Lauderdale, to support the team. It’s good for the league.
“It’s no secret that we are looking to expand; what we need are good owners. We want to have more teams.”
But, having more teams in the southeast will only serve to increase the travel bill for the Eddies, currently the only NASL team in the Mountain time zone. Just with the four Florida teams, the Eddies are looking at four road trips of 3,000-4,000 km (one-way) each. It’s given wisdom that flying an NASL team and paying for hotels and meals costs north of $20,000 a trip. But Fath told me that, when the Eddies faced Fort Lauderdale in the playoffs back in the FCE’s inaugural season, booking seats and hotels last-second ballooned the costs to over $40,000 for that trip.
As well, with no direct flights from Edmonton to Florida, you are looking at making even more punishing trips that are north of eight hours in planes and airports — once you factor in layovers.
Fath said that scheduling midweek games here and there, which would allow the Eddies to play two Florida teams in a one-week trip, would really help the team’s bottom line.
“It doesn’t really help when you’re playing once a week. But there’s a few times this season where we are playing midweek games. If we could play one game on the weekend and another in the middle of the week, that would really help with the travel costs.”
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May 20, 2015
Heartbreak kids: Eddies lose Canadian Championship semifinal in 96th minute… again
FC Edmonton’s Cristian Raudales heads the ball away from Whitecap Pedro Morales. PHOTO: TONY LEWIS/FC EDMONTON
FC Edmonton is developing a tragic history of giving up late goals to lose Amway Canadian Championship ties.
Last year, it was a 96th-minute Patrice Bernier penalty that gave the Montreal Impact a last-gasp semifinal win over the Eddies. On Wednesday, Whitecap substitute Matias Laba rolled the ball across the goal line in the 96th minute of the semifinal’s second leg, punching Vancouver’s ticket to the final.
The final score at Clarke Stadium; Whitecaps 2, Eddies 1 — with Vancouver taking the semifinal 3-2 on aggregate.
The goal came after the Eddies couldn’t deal with a free kick that dropped into the penalty area, and the ball was poked across the goal line by Laba.
“I ‘d have to see it again, but it looked like it went through a ruck of players and through Matt’s (keeper Matt Van Oekel) legs,” said FCE coach Colin Miller after the game.
The goal came just after the Eddies got a 91st-minute penalty-kick equalizer off the foot of Tomi Ameobi, who became the all-time leading scorer in the history of the Canadian Championship — since the tournament format was adopted. The crowd of 3,803 — save for a few dozen Whitecaps fans — uttered the loudest roar ever heard at an FCE home game after Ameobi’s effort hit the back of the net. For the striker, it was the seventh straight game in which he’s scored.
But, he’d trade all the individual accolades just to see Laba’s goal erased from time.
“It was the worst feeling in the world,” Ameobi said of the Laba goal. “It literally stops your heart, there’s nothing you can do.”
“To me, I thought once we equalized, I thought there would only be one winner; I thought we had the Whitecaps on the ropes,” said FCE coach Colin Miller, who summed up the night as “heartbreaking.”
“This game just doesn’t care about anybody, especially the head coach.”
Just seconds before the Laba winner, with the game poised to go into extra time, Miller was out of his coaching box trying to rally the home fans to make even more noise.
Whitecaps coach Carl Robinson said the late push by the Caps should quiet the critics who feel his team doesn’t take the Canadian Championship seriously enough.
“We showed how we reacted in the final minute how serious we are.
“It was a very difficult game. I said this the guys after last Wednesday’s game that this is an enormous game for Edmonton. They’ve got something to prove. They fight. They scrap. They run. ”
But, once again, the Eddies got off to a poor start to a game.
Four times this year, the Eddies have given up goals in the first 90 seconds of Cup or NASL matches. On Wednesday night, it took a whole eight minutes before a giveaway in midfield led to a miserable sequence of events which gave the visiting Vancouver Whitecaps a penalty kick — and the opening goal.
After the Eddies corralled the ball in midfield, a poor pass attempt from Ritchie Jones missed his target, Tomas Granitto. The visitors pounced on the chance and Whitecap Cristian Techera streaked into the box, where he was brought down by VanOekel.
Referee Silviu Petrescu waved a yellow at VanOekel, and Pedro Morales rolled his penalty kick inside the post to give the Whitecaps the lead.
And, as has been the case in many games this season, the Eddies settled down as soon as they gave up the early goal. They began to get the ball wide left to Lance Laing who, in the 11th minute, sent a teasing cross into the box for Tomi Ameobi, who had scored in each of his six previous matches. But the sliding Ameobi only made nominal contact with the ball, allowing ‘Caps keeper Paolo Tornaghi to smother the ball.
At halftime, Eddies Coach Colin Miller abandoned the five-man midfield, bringing in forward Daryl Fordyce. And in a game where the Whitecaps played very conservatively save for a few dynamic runs from Techera, there was precious little space for the Eddies to unleash their counterattack.
But Fordyce did get one glorious chance; in the 58th minute he ran onto a great cross from left back Allan Zebie, but blasted his short-range Daryl Fordyce to join Ameobi.
Techera got two good looks for the Whitecaps in the 63rd and 64th minutes, but both efforts slightly missed the target.
Miller and his team, though, will once again wonder “what if?”
“I don’t think we deserved (the result),” said Miller. “I thought we were the far better team in the second half. The Whitecaps were just kicking the ball up the park.”
And, coming so close to MLS opposition two years in a row, what does it say about NASL? Miller said that, over the course of a long season, an MLS team’s depth — like the Whitecaps have — would win out. But in a Cup tie, the depth charts don’t matter.
“On any given day, an NASL club can beat an MLS side. The gap is closing.”
May 19, 2015
Eddies can’t afford to try and manage the second leg against the Whitecaps
Last year, in the second leg of the Amway Canadian Championship semifinal, FC Edmonton had the Montreal Impact on the ropes. The aggregate score was 4-4, but the Eddies held the advantage on away goals.
A 96th-minute penalty allowed Montreal to take that tie; a year later, the Eddies have learned lessons from that.
So says striker Tomi Ameobi, who has scored in each of his last six competitive matches — Cup games and NASL. He and his Eddies teammates will host Vancouver in the second leg of their semifinal Wednesday at Clarke Field.
“That was the lesson we learned from the last Montreal game, that you need to go on and win the game, that you always have to take the game to the opponent,” said Ameobi over the phone. (Disclosure: I was sick today and, as a professional courtesy, stayed away from training. Don’t want to pass a bug to players on either team.)
Once the Eddies got the goal to tie the aggregate score at 4-4, they defended for the last portion of the game, repelling attack after attack before Patrice Bernier buried the penalty kick. This year, the Eddies have the advantage by getting a 1-1 first-leg result at BC Place. But Ameobi says that the Eddies can’t try to nurse the score.
“We know that Vancouver will bring a strong team, and they will come at us right from the beginning. But, with players like Laingy (Lance Laing), Sainey (Nyassi) and Ritchie Jones, we are looking to attack. We are dangerous on the counterattack. Our attitude will be that we have to go out and win the game.”
Remember that the Whitecaps have been better on the road than at home this year, and that FC Edmonton holds the dubious distinction of allowing the most goals in NASL this season, 15 in just six games. But the Eddies are tied for the lead as the NASL’s top offence, with 11 goals. Add to that seven goals that the Eddies have scored in three Cup contests this season.
So, it would take an awfully brave gambler to lay money down on a 0-0 result Wednesday.
Ameobi’s run is a big part of the Edmonton offensive explosion.
“No, in my career I have never been on a run of form like this,” said Ameobi. “But the credit can’t just go to myself, it has to go to my teammates. Players like Laingy, Sainey, Jones and Daryl Fordyce.”
But Ameobi, like Jones and defender Kareem Moses, didn’t see the field in Sunday’s 3-2 loss to San Antonio. Laing and Nyassi only came on as second half-subs and got about a half-hour each. While Ameobi understood coach Colin Miller’s reasons behind resting select players on the team, it made for a very frustrating afternoon.
“Definitely, it was hard to watch. A couple of players were rested, but it’s frustrating because you feel like you are able to play. But, at the same time, you understand that you’ve played a lot of games, and there are a lot of players, based on how they’ve performed in training, who deserved a run-out. But it was hard, considering we came back twice and then looked like we were going to go on and win the game.”
As for Wednesday, Miller said it’s important that Edmontonians treat this as a Cup final and fill the stadium.
“Definitely, it doesn’t matter who is in a Vancouver shirt, they are one of the best teams in MLS. I think they are the fastest team in MLS. But, we can’t go out and treat the Whitecaps like they’re Germany. We will give them the same respect we would give to any visiting team. I have looked at them and I see weaknesses there, just as I am sure (Whitecaps coach) Carl Robinson has looked at us and seen weaknesses in our game. But we can’t sit back.”
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May 18, 2015
Quintessentially Canadian Power Rankings, MLS Week 11/NASL Week 7
Sadi Jalali
FC Edmonton’s brass decided to rotate the squad for Sunday’s match against the San Antonio Scorpions. And, with so many younger prospects given the chance to play, a whopping total of 421 minutes were given to Canadian players.
The Eddies lost 3-2 to San Antonio in what was a sloppy game — but the team rested many key starters ahead of Wednesday’s crucial Canadian Championship semifinal second leg against the Vancouver Whitecaps. But, the Eddies gave starts to three academy graduates — Mallan Roberts, Allan Zebie and Sadi Jalali — and a fourth, Hanson Boakai, came on as a substitute. Eddie Edward and Michael Nonni also started for the Eddies.
The Eddies widened their lead as the MLS/NASL team that gives Canadians the most opportunities to play first- or second-division soccer. The Eddies Canadian-minutes-per-game average is just a hair under 300. To compare, the best MLS team in terms of giving minutes to Canadian players, Toronto FC, is averaging just under 130 minutes per game.
Even though NASL started its season a month later than MLS, five of the top 10 players in terms of individual minutes played are NASL players.
On the MLS side, Cyle Larin played 155 minutes — two starts — for Orlando City this week. He scored in each of the games — and the No. 1 pick in the 2015 SuperDraft is looking more and more like Orlando’s (and Canada’s) No. 1 option up top.
MLS AND NASL MINUTES BY PLAYER, THE CANADIANS (MLS AFTER 11 WEEKS, NASL AFTER 7 WEEKS):
1. Russell Teibert, VAN, MLS, 760 (10)
2. Ashtone Morgan, TFC, MLS, 656 (8)
3. Sam Adekugbe, VAN, MLS, 615 (7)
4. Dominic Oppong, ATL, NASL, 585 (7)
5. Kyle Porter, ATL, NASL, 544 (7)
T6. Eddie Edward, FCE, NASL, 540 (6)
T6. Mallan Roberts, FCE, NASL, 540 (6)
8. Carl Haworth, OTT, NASL, 517 (6)
9. Jonathan Osorio, TFC, MLS, 513 (8)
10. Cyle Larin, ORL, MLS, 507 (8)
11. Marcel de Jong, SKC, MLS, 453 (6)
12. Julian de Guzman, OTT, NASL, 450 (5)
13. Nana Attakora, SAS, NASL, 360 (4)
14. Drew Beckie, OTT, NASL, 255 (4)
15. Frank Jonke, FCE, NASL, 253 (3)
16. Karl Ouimette, NYRB, MLS, 232 (3)
17. Allan Zebie, FCE, NASL, 191 (3)
18. Adrian Cann, SAS, NASL, 180 (2)
19. Patryk Misik, OTT, NASL, 165 (4)
20. Sadi Jalali, FCE, NASL, 124 (3)
21. Michael Nonni, FCE, NASL, 104 (4)
22. Patrice Bernier, MTL, MLS 95 (3)
T23. Maxim Tissot, MTL, MLS 90 (1)
T23. Mason Trafford, OTT, NASL, 90 (1)
25. Kyle Bekker, FCD, MLS, 87 (4)
26. Kianz Froese, VAN, MLS, 80 (4)
27. Mauro Eustaquio, OTT, NASL, 69 (2)
28. Hanson Boakai, FCE, NASL, 46 (2)
29. Jeremy Gagnon-Lapare, MTL, MLS, 6 (1)
MLS AND NASL MINUTES BY PLAYER, THE CANADIAN MAYBES — PLAYERS WHO COULD BE ELIGIBLE FOR CANADA, BUT ARE ELIGIBLE FOR OTHER NATIONS AND HAVE NOT COMMITTED TO CANADA (MLS AFTER 11 WEEKS, NASL AFTER 7 WEEKS):?
1. Ethan Finlay, CLB 824 (10)
2. Steven Vitoria, PHI 810 (9)
3. Tesho Akindele, FCD 696 (11)
TEAM RANKINGS, MINUTES PLAYED BY CANADIANS IN 2015 (INCLUDES BOTH SUREFIRES and MAYBES); RANKED BY AVERAGE MINUTES PER GAME:
?FC Edmonton, NASL, 1798/6 GP (299.7) (+24.3)
?Ottawa, NASL, 1546/6 GP (257.7) (NC)
Atlanta, NASL, 1129/7 GP (161.3) (-5.9)
Toronto FC, MLS, 1169/9 GP (129.9) (+5.4)
Vancouver, MLS, 1455/12 GP (121.3) (-3.9)
San Antonio, NASL 540/6 GP (90) (NC)
Columbus, MLS, 824/10 GP (82.4) (-0.5)
FC Dallas, MLS, 784/11 GP (71.3) (-1.2)
Philadelphia, MLS, 810/12 GP (67.5) (-6.1)
Orlando City, MLS, 507/11 GP (46.1) (+7)
Sporting Kansas City, MLS, 453/10 GP (45.3) (NC)
Montreal, MLS, 191/6 GP (31.8) (-3.6)
New York Red Bulls, MLS 232/10 GP (23.3) (+7.4)
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May 17, 2015
Home streak snapped: Defensive blunders cost FCE dearly
BURT AND CUMMINGS: FCE’s Chad Burt, left, and Scorpion Omar Cummings battle for the ball. PHOTO TONY LEWIS/FC EDMONTON
The two teams at the bottom of the NASL’s goals-against table met Sunday in Edmonton.
And their defending lived up (down?) to the billing. But, in the end, the Eddies made one more mistake than the San Antonio Scorpions did, and the visitors got a 3-2 triumph.
Late in the game, after intercepting a pass, Eddies’ central defender Mallan Roberts lingered on the ball rather than making the simple play and hoofing the ball out of danger. San Antonio’s Billy Forbes, who scored earlier in the game, nicked the ball off of Roberts’s feet and then went in alone on goal. He finished neatly, giving the Scorpions the late winner.
Sure, the Eddies rested several regulars. This was their third game in seven days, and the second leg of their Canadian Championship semifinal against the Vancouver Whitecaps comes on Wednesday. But the back line has been giving up too many goals all season long — now a whopping 15 in just six games. And Kareem Moses was the only back-line regular who wasn’t in the lineup Sunday. But, in a game where Edmonton did well to create a series of good chances, you can’t use the rotated lineup as an excuse. (And no one did.) The defending wasn’t good enough, plain and simple.
Since Colin Miller has been the coach of FC Edmonton, I’ve never seen him this angry after a game. Miller is usually generous in speaking to the broadcast crew whenever he’s needed but, after this match, he kept his words to a minimum. He simply said that there was little point in coming back twice — which the Eddies did in this game — if “Elephant and Castle defending” presents the opposition with easy chances.
Miller decided to leave striker Tomi Ameobi — who has scored in each of his last six games — and midfielder Ritchie Jones in street clothes. Moses didn’t play. And wingers Lance Laing and Sainey Nyassi were only introduced into the game after the hour mark.
The first goal of the game was scored by Scorpions’ striker Omar Cummings; after losing the ball, he got it back when a clearance from fullback Eddie Edward hit centre back Albert Watson in the thigh. Cummings took advantage of his second chance, curling a shot inside the post that brought us back to a time when he was one of the top strikers in MLS and won an MLS Cup with the Colorado Rapids.
“We had chances at four tackles and pulled out of every one of them,” Miller said.
The Eddies created some excellent chances in the first half, but Scorpions keeper stopped Darryl Sattler stopped efforts from Chad Burt and Daryl Fordyce.
But, an injury meant that Scorpions defender Julius James had to be subbed before halftime, and coach Alen Marcina inserted Zourab Tsiskaridze into what looked like a back three.
Early in the second half, the Eddies equalized when winger Michael Nonni was able to take advantage of Tsiskaridze’s absence; the defender was too far upfield and gave the FCE winger acres of space to work with. Nonni dropped a great cross to the far post that Johann Smith nodded across goal. Fordyce slammed the ball into the goal.
But Forbes restored the Scorpions lead very quickly. Forbes sprinted behind the back line, and a large number of the Eddies players had their hands up looking for the offside flag. But the linesmen was right to keep the flag down; Roberts was caught well behind the rest of his defensive line and was clearly playing Forbes onside. Forbes cut towards goal and then chipped the ball over keeper Matt Vanoekel.
“I knew when he came out that he wasn’t going to stay on his feet, so I knew then I was going to chip him,” said Forbes.
Forbes said that, after the 60 minute-mark, he felt he was able to use his speed to take advantage of a tired Eddies’ defence.
The Eddies got their second equalizer of the afternoon when substitute Hanson Boakai pounded a shot towards goal that Sattler stopped, but couldn’t control the ball. The rebound sat in the area, and Fordyce placed it into the open net.
But, even before Forbes’s second goal of the game, there were warning signs. Vanoekel had to make a diving stop on Cesar Elizondo, then stopped Cummings on the rebound. But the chances were created because Vanoekel’s initial kick smashed off the back of Watson and into the penalty area.
And Watson looped a header behind his own back line, and Forbes took it and went in alone, but Vanoekel came out and stopped the ball with his face.
After the game, Alen Marcina — the Scorpions’ Canadian coach — said that he felt his team wasn’t very clinical in front of goal.
“In truth, we should have had two or three more,” he said.
Now, the Eddies need to refocus ahead of Wednesday’s date with the Whitecaps at Clarke Field. Right now, the score is 1-1 but, after seeing their home undefeated streak snapped at 11 games (a streak that stretched back to last July), the Eddies need to look at the back end.
“We have to take as many positives as we can out of this game if we’re going to have any chance against Vancouver,” said Fordyce. “We can’t worry about who they will bring or who they will play. We have to worry about ourselves.”
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