Garry Kasparov's Blog, page 13

Putin Critic Weighs in on Blast that Hit Prized Crimea Bridge | CNN NewDay | October 8, 2022

https://t.co/FydNV8U9zr

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) October 9, 2022

Whoever attacked the Crimean bridge timed it for dawn to minimize civilian casualties. Putin also launches attacks at dawn, but does so to maximize casualties in the civilian centers he repeatedly targets. 1/4

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) October 10, 2022

You can watch the full clip at YouTube

“Everyone Who Is Still in Russia Is Part of This War Machine” | Der Spiegel | October 6, 2022

Meanwhile, Scholz wants to make sure that any German tanks sent to Ukraine will be there new and unscratched for a victory parade in Kyiv, never in the fight. Also looking forward to future deals with war criminal Putin?

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) October 8, 2022

This article is a reprint. You can read the original at Der Spiegel.

By Christian Esch and Susanne Koelbl

“DER SPIEGEL: Mr. Kasparov, the flag on your lapel is white-blue-white instead of white-blue-red. Is it a made-up flag of the Russia you would like to see?

Kasparov: The idea of washing the red stripe off the Russian flag came up spontaneously among exiled Russians from Riga to San Francisco. Given the current events in Ukraine, we Russians can no longer afford to have the color of blood on our flag. But at the same time, these are the colors of the free Republic of Novgorod from the Middle Ages, and that is historically symbolic.

DER SPIEGEL: Could you please explain?

Kasparov: We are just seeing the final showdown of two versions of Russia: the pro-European Russia and the jingoistic Russia that combines Byzantine ideology and the military machinery of the Golden Horde…

DER SPIEGEL: … the feudalistic Mongol state.

Kasparov: And maybe we are just seeing the opportunity for pro-European Russia to take revenge on imperialist Russia.

DER SPIEGEL: This war is also very clearly your personal reckoning with Russian President Vladimir Putin. What is driving you?

Kasparov: I have been fighting Mr. Putin for 20 years and have always said that his regime is bound to become a fascist threat – not only to Russia, not only to its neighbors, but to the whole world. It would have been nice if a few more people would have heeded these warnings.

“Russia today is a fascist dictatorship.”

DER SPIEGEL: Many Russians who have taken courageous action against Putin find your radical position to be unsettling, in part because you have formulated it from the safety of exile. You have said, for example, that those who want to be on the right side of history should pack their things and leave the country.

Kasparov: It’s war. You’re either on one side of the front or the other. Every Russian citizen, including me, bears collective responsibility for this war. But it’s not the same with personal responsibility. Russia today is a fascist dictatorship that is committing crimes against humanity as we speak. And everyone who is still in Russia now is part of this war machine, whether they want to be or not.

About Garry KasparovFoto: Julia Steinigeweg / DER SPIEGEL

Garry Kasparov was born in Baku in 1963. His mother was a music teacher and his father a violinist. He learned to play chess at age five and later became a professional player. In 1985, Kasparov, who has Jewish-Armenian roots, won the world chess championship for the first time and defended it until 2000. Kasparov ended his professional chess career in 2005 and became active in Russian politics. In 2013, he went into exile. Since then, he has been active in various organizations against Russian President Vladimir Putin. Kasparov lives with his family in New York and in Split. In 2014, he took on Croatian citizenship.

DER SPIEGEL: Not everyone can simply leave the country. Neighboring countries like Lithuania, where you regularly hold your Free Russia Forum with Russians in exile, have closed their borders to Russians.

Kasparov: You can’t just let people travel back and forth. There was no German tourism in London in 1941 either, so I proposed welcoming only those Russians who sign a declaration with three principles: The war is criminal; the Putin regime is illegitimate; and Ukraine is indivisible.

Bild vergrößern

A group of young Russians crossing into Georgia to escape mobilization: “You’re either on one side of the front or the other.”

Foto: Zurab Tsertsvadze / AP

DER SPIEGEL: This idea has triggered outrage among many Russians, with people referring to it as a passport for “good Russians” – and one that divides citizens of the country into good and bad.

Kasparov: It’s not about “good” or “bad.” For the Ukrainians, it is important to see that only those Russians are allowed to travel to the West who distance themselves from Putin. And those who sign this declaration would be, according to Putin’s laws, punishable on three counts.

DER SPIEGEL: How long will this war last? Putin just recently announced a mobilization to generate fresh troops for the front.

Kasparov: Putin’s military and economic capacities will have been exhausted by spring. He’ll run out of munitions by April at the latest and the economy won’t even be able to cover the basic needs of the Russians. That is why Putin is in a hurry. He is trying to establish a good starting point for negotiations.

“Putin knows instinctively that losing this war will put his political and physical survival in question.”

DER SPIEGEL: Putin may no longer be able to win, but there is much he can still destroy. He’s not isolated.

Kasparov: It is well known that dictators don’t like losers, and Putin is about to lose the war. Who else does he have? Iran has other problems right now. China is doing nothing for Putin. Kazakhstan has turned its back. Support is shrinking by the day. Even Serbia refused to recognize the so-called referendums. Putin is alone.

DER SPIEGEL: Would you, as a chess player, say that Putin is a rational actor?

Kasparov: Attacking Ukraine was a huge mistake. But after Putin’s past experiences with the Americans, the French and the Germans, it was rational for him to assume that they would let him get away with it. The dictator Putin never played chess, but poker; and he was good at geopolitical poker. He often won with bad cards because his opponents gave in to his bluff. Now he knows instinctively that losing this war will put his political and physical survival in question. He will mobilize all his resources. The question is: At what point will the people around him start looking for an exit strategy for themselves?

DER SPIEGEL: What would a Russian defeat mean?

Kasparov: We know from Russia’s history that every military and geopolitical defeat leads to dramatic changes at home, whether it was the Crimean War in 1855, the Russo-Japanese War in 1905, the stalemate in World War I or the end of the Cold War in 1989. But this defeat could be the worst of all because it will be very visible. It will be like 1945 in Germany.

“One thing is, when you see all this on TV, oh, Crimea, how great. But to die for it? No, thank you.”

DER SPIEGEL: That is a bold comparison. Germany was occupied and destroyed. Russia isn’t likely to meet the same fate.

Kasparov: It’s about the feeling of defeat, the realization that the Russian empire is dead. And this realization will come when Crimea is liberated and the Ukrainian flag is flying over Sevastopol, the main port city of Crimea.

DER SPIEGEL: It doesn’t look like that is going to happen any time soon. Why do you think the Russian aren’t prepared to fight for Crimea?

Kasparov: The people in Moscow and St. Petersburg are already voting with their feet. They are running away. One thing is, when you see all this on TV, oh, Crimea, how great. But to die for it? No, thank you.

DER SPIEGEL: What will come after the collapse you are predicting?

Kasparov: Russia will go through a terrible time. It will take years, if not decades, before the Russians can reconcile with the Ukrainians. The Russian public would certainly not be capable of democracy right away either. But they would have no choice at all but to try to return to Europe, shake off the sanctions and start all over again.

Bild vergrößern

A young reservist in Moscow bids farewell to his parents: “At what point will the people around him start looking for an exit strategy for themselves?”

Foto: Yuri Kochetkov / EPA

DER SPIEGEL: There is no alternative to shifting to the West? Is that not just wishful thinking?

Kasparov: If we don’t manage to return to Europe, we will become a satellite state of China. Beijing is just waiting for Russia to collapse. Demographically and economically, that is the biggest threat to our existence. According to official Chinese historiography, nearly half of Russia’s territory is actually China.

DER SPIEGEL: The last collapse that Russia experienced was in 1991, a traumatic experience of instability and economic misery that Russia still hasn’t overcome.

Kasparov: I trust in the abilities of my comrade-in-arms Mikhail Khodorkovsky to organize things in a very short time once the sanctions are lifted. There are still functioning elements of a market economy in Russia.

DER SPIEGEL: After being away for so long, do you still have a sense for normal Russians and what they actually want?

Kasparov: I don’t claim to have a real feel for it, but I can analyze the available data. The majority of Russians did not care much about this war. About 10 percent were against this war on moral grounds, 30 percent were for it and 60 percent simply didn’t care.

DER SPIEGEL: Support for Putin among many Russians is far stronger than the West would like to believe.

Kasparov: As long as he wins! I don’t deny that the majority of Russians would be happy to see Ukraine subjugated. And of course it is morally abhorrent that my compatriots see the Bucha massacre and say: Oh, that’s fake. But now Putin is losing, and that means they have to pay the price for the war.

“If the regime collapses one day, tens of thousands of corrupt officials will have to be replaced.”

DER SPIEGEL: There is no longer an opposition in Russia. But the opposition in exile also seems weak and at odds with each other. In May, you and Mikhail Khodorkovsky founded the Russian Action Committee in Lithuania. But can you even claim to speak for the Russians?

Kasparov: Of course we can’t speak for all of Russia. But we can politically represent those who have left Russia and signed our declaration against the war. That’s what we hope for. And we hope that among these people are those who can provide Russia’s new officialdom. Because if the regime collapses one day, tens of thousands of corrupt officials will have to be replaced. And someone with experience will have to come in. I know, I myself have been outside Russia for 10 years, Mikhail Khodorkovsky too. You need people who have only recently left the country.

DER SPIEGEL: Followers of Alexei Navalny who have recently fled the country don’t seem interested in working with you. His supporters didn’t participate in your exile meeting in Lithuania. Why not? The imprisoned Navalny is certainly the most prominent opposition figure in Russia.

Kasparov: Navalny’s people behave like a sect. They were already not very cooperative within Russia and are keeping to themselves for the time being. I would also like them to say the sentence “Crimea is Ukraine” out loud without tripping over their tongues.

DER SPIEGEL: Navalny has condemned the annexation of Crimea as illegal, but he rejects its automatic return. He says that Crimea isn’t a “sandwich” that can simply be handed back and forth. He is apparently pursuing an approach that is different from yours.

Kasparov: Russia can only recover if it fully accepts the territorial integrity of Ukraine and its other neighbors. The other difference is: We in the Russian Action Committee think that Russia must stop being an empire. And if Tartastan or Chechnya then go their own way, that’s fine. I admire Navalny’s heroism, but his personal sacrifice of going to prison was a big mistake in my view. Politically, it was not a very wise thing to do at a time that calls for a unification of all forces. It would be more productive to have Mr. Navalny here so that we could discuss working together.

DER SPIEGEL: When you look back at the years you have spent in exile fighting against Putin, what have you achieved?

Kasparov: I’ll be blunt: I’ve been warning about this war for years. If people in Europe and America had listened to me, countless lives would have been saved. And unlike Navalny, who was open to the annexation of Crimea, I said: Crimea is the first site of genocide against Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars.

“Germany contributed greatly to Putin’s arrogance.”

DER SPIEGEL: What role should Germany play in your scenario?

Kasparov: Germany contributed greatly to Putin’s arrogance. Through Germany’s gas dependence, he believed he could dictate his terms to Europe. Now Germany has a unique chance to reinvent itself, to stand up to the modern reincarnation of the Nazis, who have tragically found a home in Russia. In 1942, the deportation trains went west. Now they are heading east. Some 2.5 million Ukrainians are being deported to Russia right now. Germany could lead a coalition to end this genocidal war.

Bild vergrößern

Russian leader Vladimir Putin with Defense Minster Sergei Shoigu (left) and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov in September during a maneuver in Primorsky in eastern Russia.

Foto: Mikhail Klimentyev / Kremlin / Sputnik / REUTERS

DER SPIEGEL: Instead of drawing natural gas from Russia, you recommend importing energy from Azerbaijan, a dictatorship that just attacked Armenia. You are aware of the conflict. After all, you have Armenian roots yourself and grew up in Azerbaijan. Should we just swap one dictator for another?

Kasparov: To be clear, I simply supported the EU’s decision to find alternative sources of gas. When facing existential threats, you have to make compromises. I will not give up my opposition to the Azeri and Turkish dictators. But now it’s a matter of defining the most important goal. And I think Putin’s regime is the greatest existential threat facing the free world.

Bild vergrößern

Kasparov on Sept. 26, 2022 with DER SPIEGEL reporters Christian Esch and Susanne Koelbl in Berlin’s Hotel Adlon.

Foto: Merve Terzi / DER SPIEGEL

DER SPIEGEL: If Russia’s government does, in fact, collapse, would you and your family move back to Moscow?

Kasparov: I myself am not seeking political office in Russia. But I am ready to invest my time, my energy and my reputation so that Russia can return to the family of civilized nations.”

“New Sinews of Peace” | Kemper Lecture | October 7, 2022

Today I am honored to deliver the 36th Enid and R. Crosby Kemper Lecture at the St. Mary the Virgin Church at the Winston Churchill Museum in Fulton, Missouri. You can watch live here at 12:30pm ET, 11:30 local. https://t.co/gP4wZJrY7v

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) October 7, 2022

Today is also Putin’s 70th birthday, and while the little dictator hides in his bunker, terrified of his own people, I will speak in Fulton before true friends of freedom and dissident heroes from all over whose courage must inspire us all.

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) October 7, 2022

See below the text of the speech I delivered at the Churchill Museum in Fulton, Museum, where Winston Churchill gave his Sinews of Peace speech in 1946.

“Thank you for that gracious introduction, Director Kemper. Thank you for all your work in the causes of freedom and knowledge—which must always go together. I’m thrilled to be here to speak in Fulton again. My thanks to Director Tim Riley and his team at the Churchill Museum for making it possible. It’s a great honor to deliver the 36th Enid and R. Crosby Kemper Lecture, and to follow very literally in the footsteps of two of my heroes, Harry Truman and Winston Churchill.

It is also special to be here on this hallowed ground with so many friends, from whom I have learned so much. Among them are some of my living heroes, people with the courage and conviction that was rare in the day of Churchill and is rarer still today.

Masih Alinejad, a founder of the women-led movement currently sweeping Iran. If only Russian men were as brave as Iranian women!

Leopoldo Lopez of Venezuela, who lost his freedom for so long and is dedicated to bringing it not just to his people, but to all.

Abdalaziz Alhamza of Syria, where Putin practiced his genocide techniques with his dictator colleague, Bashar al-Assad.

Uniting them, and so many others, Thor Halvorssen, founder and CEO of the Human Rights Foundation. Thank you all for being here, and for everything you do to inspire me and all of us.

And my most special thanks to my truest inspiration, my bravest and most valuable ally through it all, my wife Dasha.

My lecture today is titled simply: A New Sinews of Peace. Not very original, I admit, but the threats we face and the answers we seek today are not original either. Today there is once again war in Europe, with a dictator determined to change Europe’s borders by force. Today it is again necessary to unite the forces of freedom, to create a new grand alliance. But unlike at the time of the 1946 original Sinews speech, today there is a clear and present danger.

The good news is that I no longer have to convince anyone of the danger Vladimir Putin represents, as I did, or tried to do, 21 long years ago, soon after he took power in Russia. And again in 2008 when he invaded Georgia, and in 2014 when he first invaded Ukraine, and every day since then. The threat has been realized. Winter is no longer coming, as I titled my 2015 book. It is a fine fall day here in Fulton, Missouri, but make no mistake: Winter is here. And it is still unclear if the free world is willing and able to meet this challenge.

We could do worse than to read and reread Sir Winston’s original speech, delivered on March 5th, 1946. It is remembered as “The Iron Curtain” speech, for its prescience and warning against the rise of Communist totalitarianism from Stalin’s Soviet Union.

That sounded strange to many ears at the time, since Stalin and the USSR had so recently been American allies against the Axis powers. Of course, American allies only after Stalin first allied with Hitler to divide Eastern Europe in 1939. That inconvenient fact is illegal to point out in Putin’s Russia, by the way.

Churchill’s speech was far more than a warning, and in this I hope to emulate him as well. He spoke about preserving and lifting up the ideals and methods that worked to advance modern civilization, the values of democracy and freedom. Of the need for action, not only words. His goal was not small, not selfish. He dreamed of safety for, quote, “all the homes and families of all the men and women in all the lands” from what he called the twin marauders: war and tyranny.

In 1946, war was over, and the menace of tyranny was not yet clear. Yet Churchill saw the need to build new defenses with no time to lose. What he lacked was the ability to build them, and that is where, once again, America came in. The United States would again become the arsenal of democracy, in Franklin Roosevelt’s famous phrase. More than weapons this time, the alliance would also build institutions to keep the balance of power. Speed was crucial, as it was just three years later when Soviets performed their first nuclear test in August 1949.

Churchill knew that the United Nations would not be enough, even with American participation. Diplomats and courts needed sheriffs and constables, in his words. I hate to skip so much important material, but let us just say that, with a many painful bumps and bruises, it worked, at least for a while. Nuclear catastrophe was averted by the principle of stalemate. Soviet expansion was contained by NATO. The United Nations served a purpose as a shock absorber, where the superpowers could yell and wrangle without making real war. The status quo allowed the free world to flourish in relative safety, even if those of us living behind the Iron Curtain enjoyed none of those benefits. It wasn’t until 1989, two generations removed from Churchill’s speech here in Fulton, that the rusty wall cracked and finally collapsed with the USSR itself on December 25, 1991.

It was a glorious day. A day of celebration, and a huge step forward for global freedom. The problem was the next day. And the next. The Cold War was over, the Soviet Union was over. But history… history was not over.

Where were our Trumans and Churchills, ready to step forward with bold new plans for the collapsing world order? Where were the strategic thinkers and visionaries creating new institutions to cement the advantages of the free world and to spread its benefits further, to every corner of the globe?

The United Nations, robbed of its purpose of freezing hostilities between the US and the USSR, has become a platform of dictators. Not merely obsolete, not merely a “frothing of words” in Churchill’s memorable phrase, but actively harmful to the cause of freedom and human rights. Iran sits on the UN Commission for Women. Venezuela is on the UN Human Rights Council, as was Russia, until removed this April. And Russia still enjoys veto rights over all decisions of this organization.

Unfortunately, unlike in 1946, in 1991 instead of leaders, we had managers. Instead of looking to the future, they celebrated the present, praising themselves. Instead of investing the peace dividend in a new league of democracies, the old bureaucracies and tyrannies were allowed to fester, like weeds that had been cut back but not uprooted.

I have a consistent record of criticizing politicians of every stripe and party. I have called out six consecutive US presidents for their policies, occasionally in person, for their unwillingness to learn from their great predecessors. An America that does not defend liberty everywhere will see its decay at home as well, a process that is already underway.

We are paying the price for our apathy. Ukraine is paying the price in blood. The war in Ukraine did not begin on February 24 of this year. Not even on February 20, 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea. This war is decades in the making. 30 years of making concessions that were intended to keep the peace but only postponed the war. 20 years of pretending it was possible to separate business and politics, a fallacy that dictators like Putin never believed in themselves. And it was eight years of refusing to stand up to Putin in Ukraine, fearing escalation—which only guaranteed greater risks later when Putin inevitably escalated on his terms.

We were told by the great democratic powers that it was too risky, too expensive, to help Ukraine in 2014. Well, the cost of this new war is already estimated at nearly three trillion dollars, as food and fuel crises create shocks around the world. Putin has always used energy supplies for blackmail and, you might have heard, winter is coming!

In the 1930s, the appeasement mantra was peace at any cost. It was a brutal lesson to learn how high that cost could be. The modern appeasers said it was business at any cost. That economic engagement with authoritarian regimes would liberalize them, spread Western values, tie their success to ours. It failed. It failed completely.

The dictators engaged, that much is true. Then they took the free world’s billions and trillions and invested it in military spending and greater repression at home. They used the political capital from summits and meetings with free world leaders to crush domestic opposition. They use the pipelines and energy deals for blackmail, recently adding food supplies to this mafia extortion plan. I would very much like to hear from Chancellor Merkel and President Obama what they think of their legacies in this department. For so many years, we in the Russian opposition said that Putin was a Russian problem for Russians to deal with, but that with foreign money and political support, he would inescapably become everyone’s problem. And here we are.

There was an exchange of political beliefs and practices. But instead of liberal democracy and the rule of law flowing to the authoritarian regimes, their corruption and despotism flooded the free world. Cash, propaganda, and fraud have become the biggest exports of the unfree world, not oil and gas, not manufacturing. Oligarchs directly and indirectly tied to the world’s worst regimes buy Western companies, sports teams, entertainment stars, politicians, make donations to think tanks and universities—all tied to the power structure. Putin’s war has raised awareness of these hidden threats, but fighting corruption on the political and financial battlefield will be as difficult as the war on the ground.

We have the resources to fight and to win. And, thanks to the brave people and leaders of Ukraine, we now have the spirit to fight. Ukrainians have reminded us of what it looks like to sacrifice for your land, your family, your freedom. This was by no means a certainty. The US and NATO nations were not expecting Ukraine to survive more than a few days. But, from the most unexpected quarter, came a hero. Facing Putin’s blitzkrieg, President Volodymyr Zelensky, a former comedian, matched Churchill’s stirring, “We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be” to Parliament on June 4th, 1940. When President Biden offered to evacuate Zelensky and the Ukrainian leadership, the immortal reply came quickly: “I don’t need a ride, I need ammunition!”

And now, finally, years too late, he has ammunition. America is once again becoming the arsenal of democracy. Sleepy Europe is finally awake to the wolf, or Russian bear, at its door. Here I must not make the mistake of counting all of Europe as one bloc. Ukraine’s neighbors—or better put, Russia’s neighbors—have known the dangers all along. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland—they never doubted that Putin would continue his offensive if undeterred.

Meanwhile, the most powerful military coalition in history, NATO, and many of the largest economies in the world, still thought they would be able to do business with the mafia dictator in the Kremlin. This is why helping Ukraine has never been charity. It is a debt. Putin built his police state and his war machine with European money, even some American money. Ukraine is not a buffer state, as some cynical geopolitical strategists would make it. It is a sovereign nation. It has also become a shield, the front line in Putin’s much larger war against the modern world order.

Is it expensive? Yes. As I wrote so many years ago, the price of stopping a dictator always goes up. It may seem expensive today, but it’s only going to be more tomorrow. And who are we to complain about the price of gas when Ukrainians are paying in blood for our sins? We are the ones who had the ability to stop Putin in his tracks and we chose not to. We chose to believe Putin would go away if we made enough concessions. We chose to pass the buck—as Truman never did—to the next administration, avoiding the hard decisions. But dictators must always escalate, and so the time of hard decisions has come.

The brave people of Ukraine are fighting like hell and dying to remind us not to take liberty for granted. Putin, like every dictator before him, underestimated the will of free people. Ukrainians are fighting for all of us, and they deserve nothing less than every resource, every weapon, they need to win. For Ukraine to be whole and free.

The weapons are coming, and Ukraine is winning. It is still not enough, still not fast enough, but Ukraine is winning the war. Putin’s mobilization is best met by mobilizing the overwhelmingly superior forces of the free world to end this war quickly. We must stay focused and united on what victory means. It means restoring 100% of Ukrainian territory to Ukrainian control. It means accountability for the destruction and war crimes Russia has inflicted, from tribunals to reparations. If Russia is ever to join the family of civilized nations, it must be free of Putin’s mafia and cured of the imperialism virus that for centuries has caused so much damage to Russia’s neighbors—and to Russia itself. It is a long road and a hard road. But we must, as Churchill said, have an “all-over strategic concept.”

This is not chess, but we must look more than a few moves ahead. Our strategy must go beyond Ukraine, beyond Russia, and to building a secure and free world. It must be based on values, the values of human life and human freedom. In 1946, Churchill did not have to remind his audience what that meant. They had lived through that most horrible war against true evil. No one could doubt that evil existed, or that it had to be fought. Now we are seeing images from Ukraine that remind us of true evil, of civilians slaughtered on a madman’s whim. We said never again, and we cannot let those words ring hollow.

We have seen evil, that is clear. But what of good? How do we define these precious values when there is so much disagreement among us? In fact, disagreement is what defines free societies and democracies. Free elections, free choices, free people. It is tyranny, dictatorship, that says there can be no disagreement. So, while we will not agree on everything, what we must do is put aside our differences and unite when true evil threatens.

My work in recent years has been focused through the Human Rights Foundation and, more domestically, the Renew Democracy Initiative. Never would I have imagined just a decade ago that my fight for democracy would expand from Russia to the United States! But that is the situation, as the institutions that guarantee our rights are coming under attack. It turned out that many of the laws and norms we took for granted here were based on the honor system. That they were easily targeted and subverted by those who seek only power. Such people are thriving on every side of the political spectrum and on every side of the world today. To Americans and most Europeans, such forces are relatively new, or have previously been fringe or regional threats. No more. Today the radicals are advancing, and to fight them, you must learn from those who have experience.

I mentioned at the start that a few dissident heroes in a global army fighting for freedom are here today. They are living examples of how those fighting against dictatorship can unite, just as dictators do. They are also a refutation of the old saying “never meet your heroes.” It’s wonderful to meet your heroes if you can also work with them, discuss ideas with them, and go into battle with them!

Much like Ukraine, these voices of conscience, these freedom fighters from all over the world, they are not here to learn from the free world or to seek charity. They are here to teach us and to give us the gift of their moral clarity and their courage. Today the students must be the nations and people whom Churchill urged to unite in 1946. He repeatedly mentioned the “English-speaking” world, appropriate for an Englishman speaking in America. But I am a Russian speaker—and a Soviet-born Armenian Jew from Baku, no less!—here to say that America must still lead. And you can. But first you must learn, and relearn, these most important lessons.

Sir Winston would be quite surprised to hear his sentiments so boldly echoed by representatives of Iran, Syria, Venezuela, and, God save the King, even Russia! But I am sure he would appreciate their courage all the more for their not having been born to freedom and prosperity. He would understand that, 76 years after his speech, the fires of freedom had dimmed in its traditional homes and required new ignition, new fuel.

These values, these people, these movements they are the new sinews of peace. Unlike in 1946, the free world has overwhelming advantages economically, militarily, and culturally. The world is connected in countless ways previously unimagined. We have the ability to spread the light of liberty into every corner of the globe, to illuminate the darkest prisons.

But will we? That is what I ask. Will we do what Truman and Churchill did? Will we build what needs to be built and fight the battles that must be won? Or will we allow domestic partisanship and fear of risk doom us to decline and fall? “Opportunity is here now, clear and shining,” as Churchill said. We must grasp this opportunity together.

An event like this always evokes memories and anniversaries, but there is one today you might have missed. Today, October 7, is the 70th birthday of Vladimir Putin. Yes, somewhere in Russia, deep in a bunker, the little dictator is celebrating what has become the most dangerous, difficult year of his life. The walls are closing in, and, like every dictator, he fears his own people more than anything. I bet he would not even allow there to be a knife in the room to cut the cake!

We can all agree that 70 is an ideal age for Putin to retire. I don’t think there are many places that will welcome him at this point. I doubt the detention center at The Hague is up to the standards of his yachts and palaces, but it may be the safest place for him soon enough. Being put on trial for war crimes is preferable to being stabbed in the back or dragged through the streets.

If this sounds too optimistic, I’ll repeat what I said in 2010 when I was asked by a reporter when Putin would leave office. “The bad news is, that I don’t know,” I said, “but the good news is, neither does he!” As all my dissident colleagues here understand, the work of fighting against dictatorship is like that of a stonemason. It’s not the last blow that cracks the mighty boulder, but the thousands of blows that came before, when there was no visible change. And so, we must keep hammering!

The ripples of Putin’s failure are already spreading. The winds of freedom are blowing from Ukraine, to uprisings in Iran and Dagestan and beyond. If Putin can be defeated by Ukraine, no dictator is invincible. For decades, Putin has been the spider in the center of the global web of tyranny, propping up murderous regimes all over the world.

China’s threat is growing, and it is a much more formidable adversary in many ways. But the Chinese leadership is also watching very carefully what happens in Ukraine and Russia. Taiwan is also watching, and both Koreas. Will Putin’s nuclear blackmail be allowed to work, leading to rapid nuclear proliferation? Or will the world’s democracies find the strength to finally squash the spider and send a message to all the world’s dictators and would-be dictators?

Ukraine is showing us the way. The dissidents and oppressed people of the world, from Uighurs in Xinjiang to the women in the streets of Tehran, they are showing us the way. They are reminding us that freedom is worth fighting for, that it must be fought for, or it will be lost. We must help them, yes, but it is also they who are helping us. We see their bravery and sacrifice and we see that we, too, must be brave and sacrifice for the rights we treasure.

And how easy we have it, in comparison! We do not risk being jailed for wanting to vote. We will not be beaten for holding up a sign, or for simply saying a forbidden word, like “war.” Let those fighting and dying for the rights we take for granted not sacrifice in vain. Let them inspire us to do what we can and to do what we must. We can speak, and so we must speak. We can act, and so we must act.

When we do, when we accept this great challenge, the hollow halls of dictatorship will tremble. So let us raise our voices. Let us unite. Let us share our wisdom, our love, and our courage. Thank you.”

I Was There When: AI Mastered Chess | MIT Technology Review | October 6, 2022

And then also today – we talk to the great @Kasparov63 in our podcast as part of the “I Was There When” series about momentous occasions. This time we hear about the moment that shook the world: when AI mastered chess. https://t.co/ayAiOEbGXx

— Niall Firth (@niallfirth) October 7, 2022

This article is a reprint. You can read the original at I Was There When Podcast.

“I Was There When is an oral history project that’s part of the In Machines We Trust podcast. It features stories of how breakthroughs and watershed moments in artificial intelligence and computing happened, as told by the people who witnessed them. In this episode we meet one of the world’s greatest chess players, Garry Kasparov.

Sounds from:Garry Kasparov VS Deep Blue 1997 6th game (Kasparov Resigns) – via YouTubeCredits:

This project was produced by Jennifer Strong, Anthony Green and Emma Cillekens. It was edited by Mat Honan and mixed by Garret Lang with original music by Jacob Gorski. The art is from Eric Mongeon and Stephanie Arnett.

Full transcript:

Jennifer: For as long as there’s been AI research, games have been a part of it… especially chess.

We think of people who are good at playing chess as having a certain level of intelligence … and so the game also became a way to gauge the intelligence of machines.

And… fun fact? The very first chess playing program was written before a computer even existed to run it. Pioneering computer scientist Alan Turing played it in 1950…using an algorithm worked out on paper.

It didn’t work very well. But people continued to advance this research for decades.

And then, in 1997, IBM’s Deep Blue computer beat Garry Kasparov… the reigning world champion of chess.

Commentator 2: Are we missing something on the chessboard now that Kasparov sees? He does not look.. he looks disgusted in fact.  

Commentator 1: Whoah! 

Commentator 2: Deep Blue! Kasparov, after the move C4, has resigned!

[Applause]

Jennifer: I’m Jennifer Strong, and this is I Was There When—an oral history project featuring the stories of breakthroughs and watershed moments in AI and computing, as told by those who witnessed them. This episode, we meet the man on the other side of that chess board, Garry Kasparov.

Garry Kasparov: It was inevitable that something described on the cover of Newsweek as the brain’s last stand and in books as big as the moon landing would involve a lot of mythology. I admit that I was caught up in a lot of this hype myself. It took years of reflection and examination to sort out my impressions then and the truth. I wrote about this painful process in my 2017 book, Deep Thinking: When machine intelligence ends and human creativity begins, it’s easy for a chess machine, after all. They don’t care if they win or lose. They don’t even know they’re playing chess. But as a human and world champion, I had many emotions sitting down across from a machine.

Garry Kasparov: Would it play like previous machines or would it play like God? I was used to reading my opponents body language. Not exactly helpful, sitting across from a computer engineer making moves he didn’t understand for the machine he’d built. I was also used to preparing deeply for my opponents based on their previous games and their tendencies. Against Deep Blue, this was also out the window as they kept their training games secret. And of course they could upgrade its strengths and change its chess personality with a few keystrokes. If only I could. It was hard to explain my experience because I was really the first knowledge worker to have my job threatened by a machine.

Garry Kasparov: Most AI and experiences before that were hoaxes, or quite primitive. For example, human elevate operators being replaced by automatic push-bat elevators was very alarming to people in the 1940s. In fact, the technology for automatic elevators had existed for decades, but people were afraid of them. Plus, the elevate operators had a strong union. Today, there are many easy comparisons. Sitting down across from Deep Blue was in one way entirely normal. I had been feeding at a chess board since I was six years old, and technically a little was different for me, and yet it was entirely different. I felt like most people will feel the first time they get into a self-driving car or get a diagnosis from an AI doctor.

Garry Kasparov: These new marvels are far beyond my chest nemesis. Of course, the machine I lost to in the 1997 rematch, sometimes called Deep Blue, was as intelligent as your alarm clock—a 10 million dollar alarm clock, but nothing like what had been imagined by previous generations. This is not to downplay their achievement, which was a Mount Everest of computing—to defeat the world chess champion . There was a reason it got global attention. I only want to put into context what we mean when we say intelligent. Deep Blue did one thing very well with hundreds of specialized chiefs, but it was enough to compete at the world champion level because chess is deep but not deep enough. Deep Blue didn’t have to solve chess. It only had to play better over six games and brute force analysis at fast speeds turned out to be enough. It took me a while to absorb the most important lessons of my loss, and they had nothing to do with chess and everything to do with the future of the human-machine relationship.

Garry Kasparov: The period in which we compete against intelligent machines is very small, almost insignificant, yet we put so much importance on it instead of the alternative machine supremacy that follows, which is what really matters. AI automation replaces human jobs, for example, and there’s a brief moment of equality in performance with humans. But that doesn’t last long, and forever after machines will do it better, cheaper, and more safely. That’s human progress. It makes our lives better. This isn’t to be callous to those who lose their jobs, but even there, study after study shows that industries with more automation and AI do better with more jobs and higher salaries. The alternative is stagnation.

Garry Kasparov: Another key point from Deep Blue that has broad applications to AI and tech in general is that we often miss the early signs of inevitable machine dominance. My loss in the 1997 rematch was a big deal, but in fact, the most important point had been already made a year earlier in our first match in 1996 in Philadelphia, which I won. But I lost the very first game of the match, and that was the writing on the wall. That made it clear that chess was not as special as everyone had thought. It was just another closed, complex system that would inevitably be cracked by increases in computer power. That’s when that little competition window started to close. Now it’s funny to think about competing with chess machines. They are our tools, not our competition. We also get better cancer screening, safer roads, greater productivity and security. We don’t have to work at many boring and dangerous jobs anymore. When that happens, we are free to become more creative, more strategic in our activities.

Garry Kasparov: We can direct the robots, the algorithms, et cetera. Technology doing our work is the whole history of human progress. This is why I prefer to call AI or augmented intelligence, not artificial. It’s a tool and makes us smarter. The way a telescope augments our vision—what matters is how we focus it. This isn’t just a matter of economics. Global security also depends on it as leading AI tech in the hands of dictatorships is a serious threat. I helped design the first PC database software that made all my handwritten notebooks of advantages obsolete. I used and helped promote the chess programs that would overtake me and everyone else. I saw them as necessary tools that would make me better. Not as threats.

Garry Kasparov: In 1998, I invented what I called advanced chess, in which humans played together with a machine partner. A true model for many kinds of collaborative AI integration today. And humans still play chess against each other all over the world more than ever. Even though the phone in everyone’s pocket now is stronger than Deep Blue. Are we using these powerful tools in a responsible way? The Wild West is romantic in cowboy movies, but progress means having laws upheld in society where we feel secured to take advantage of the technological marvels we have created. When I give lectures on AI, many expect me to be angry or a technophobe because of my loss to a machine 25 years ago. And I admit it, I am a sore loser. But really it was a fascinating experiment and experience. Mostly, I hope others learn from my attitudes. If you can’t beat them, join them. Don’t rage against the machine if you can make it work for you and for all of us.

Jennifer: Do you have a story to tell? Know someone who does? Drop us an email at podcasts at technology review dot com. You can find links to our reporting in the show notes… and you can support our journalism by going to tech review dot com slash subscribe.

[MIDROLL]

Jennifer: This project was produced by me with Anthony Green and Emma Cillekens. We’re edited by Mat Honan and our mix engineer is Garret Lang.

Thanks for Listening. I’m Jennifer Strong.”

A Chess Champion’s Warning About Ukraine and U.S. Democracy | NYT | October 4, 2022

 

This article is a reprint. You can read the original at the New York Times.

By Blake Hounshell

“It’s been 17 years since Garry Kasparov, a child of the Soviet Union who became a grandmaster at age 22, stepped down from the world of competitive chess.

Bruce Pandolfini, who wrote a book on Kasparov’s showdown with Deep Blue, the IBM chess computer, described his play this way: “Even when he can’t calculate the end result conclusively, he can make sophisticated generalizations.”

Kasparov, now an activist and author, sees a world rife with dangers to democracy — and he is determined to do something about it.

And though he professes to dislike comparisons between his brand of chess and his brand of geopolitical analysis, Kasparov takes pride in seeing what he calls the “big picture” of rising authoritarianism and democratic malaise. In a prescient 2015 book that, as he reminded me, The New York Times dinged in a review at the time as “somewhat tedious,” he urged Americans to take Vladimir Putin’s threats seriously.

“My strength in chess was the big picture,” Kasparov said in an interview on Tuesday. “I could look at the position and see how things connected to one side or the other.”

Kasparov’s latest gambit is promoting what he views as two essential, connected ideas: that Putin’s war in Ukraine is a war for democracy itself, and that Western democracies are in peril unless their citizens fight for democratic values at home.

“I grew up in the Soviet Union, so I experienced undemocratic rule,” Kasparov said. “And while I never thought America was even close to this kind of desperation, when you look at history, the real threat in democracy comes when you have polarization.”

With Russia’s war effort flagging in Ukraine, Kasparov senses “panic” among authoritarian leaders from North Korea to Venezuela, because, he said, they view Putin as a man with “almost mystical powers.”

Here in the United States, Kasparov said, “It also could be a great moment for us to revise our commitment to democracy,” adding, “Because, let’s be honest, there was complacency.”

His organization, the Renew Democracy Initiative, has already distributed about $4 million in humanitarian aid in Ukraine, and is in the early stages of a multimillion-dollar communications campaign to buck up support for the war in the United States and Europe. Western leaders should push to end the conflict as soon as possible, Kasparov argues, by giving Ukraine the heavy weapons its leaders say they need.

“We’re fighting the devil right now,” said Hennadii Nadolenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian minister of foreign affairs who has worked with Kasparov’s group to brief Americans on the war. “Without U.S. help, we couldn’t survive.”

Last year, Renew Democracy teamed up with CNN on “Voices of Freedom,” an editorial series that involved dissidents from around the world telling their stories. The group also organized an open letter, signed by 52 dissidents from 28 countries, warning that “to win the global fight against authoritarianism, America must once again believe in and live up to its own values.”

A green-card holder with a Croatian passport, Kasparov said that he and other dissidents had an “objective” vantage point on U.S. democracy that gave them the credibility to speak difficult truths.

When we talked, Kasparov was feuding online with Elon Musk, the Tesla founder. On Monday, Musk floated a 280-character proposal to end the war in Ukraine that, to Kasparov, seemed too friendly to the Kremlin. He called Musk’s proposal “moral idiocy.”

The exchange was typical of two Kasparov traits: A combative polemical style and a conviction in the righteousness of his own beliefs. His frank criticism of six U.S. presidents, Barack Obama and Donald Trump included, has at times alienated one side or another. But that, he said, had only reinforced his concerns about political polarization.

Kasparov’s response to Americans of all stripes is that although their democracy may be teetering, it’s still a beacon of hope to millions around the world. And as the war in Ukraine shows, maintaining it requires constant vigilance.

“You have to be an active member of society,” he said. “You have to be engaged. That is the message.””

Oslo Freedom Forum in NYC | Human Rights Foundation | October 3, 2022

[ On stage at the #OFFinNY Gala with the mighty @AlinejadMasih and @LeopoldoLopez. Time for dissidents to take the offensive against dictators! @HRF @OsloFF ] pic.twitter.com/12OnnF5a9Q

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) October 4, 2022

Capping my responses to Musk in the thread below to draw attention to the continued excellent work on Ukraine by @Renew_Democracy, including the brilliant videos with Generals Hodges and Petraeus: https://t.co/VzT2CrK6vU https://t.co/6myPKBFyOZ

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) October 5, 2022

Mobilize the Free World Against Putin Now | NYDN Op-Ed | October 3, 2022

My new op-ed: “Putin is losing in Ukraine and is doubling down on his brutal war in ways that will also lose him Russia. Now is the time for Ukraine’s allies to press the advantage and to make this war’s goals loud and clear.” https://t.co/MTYQJk21FS

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) October 3, 2022

This article is a reprint. You can read the original at the New York Daily News.

By Garry Kasparov

“Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is losing in Ukraine and is doubling down on his brutal war in ways that will also lose him Russia. Now is the time for Ukraine’s allies to press the advantage, and to make this war’s goals loud and clear before they are lost in the fog of Putin’s ranting and his attempts to create chaos.

First, acknowledge that there can be no real peace until 100% of Ukrainian territory is free of Russian invaders. Second, join Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy in stating there can be no return to normal relations with Russia while Putin the war criminal is in charge. Russia has become an openly fascist dictatorship and meeting such evil halfway is a victory for evil.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is pictured in Moscow, Russia, Monday, Oct. 3, 2022. (Gavriil Grigorov/AP)

Putin and his elites believe there will always be a way back eventually, that Western leaders and companies will always make concessions. For 20 years they’ve been right, but this time it must be different.

Last week, Putin announced a “partial mobilization” to resupply the depleted Russian military with untrained conscripts, mostly drafted from Russia’s poor, ethnic minority regions. The Kremlin hoped to avoid the societal upheaval that would come with disturbing the apathetic loyalty of urban Russians, the only group they really fear. But if Putin hoped to avoid panic in Moscow, he failed, and now he will reap the worst of both worlds with an ineffective military and an increasingly alarmed population.

On Friday, Putin gave a belligerent speech before announcing the illegal annexation of more occupied Ukrainian territory. I suppose Putin felt he needed to do this quickly, as the amount of Ukrainian territory controlled by Russia is decreasing daily. As I wrote months ago, a corrupt and incompetent Russian military dying for nothing would inevitably falter against Ukrainian forces fighting for their lives, nation, and freedom.

Putin’s speech barely mentioned Ukraine, instead framing his war of invasion and choice as a battle against NATO, the decadent West, and the United States in particular. Putin needs to be seen as the big boss, the savior of the motherland, and this requires big enemies.

Putin illegally annexed Crimea in 2014 and the world did little to stop him, despite near-universal condemnation. (The handful of nations that recognized Crimea as Russian was the usual rogues’ gallery with North Korea, Syria and Venezuela.) Even Serbia, as sympathetic toward Moscow as ever, has refused to recognize this latest annexation. Nobody wants to back a loser and Putin is losing — and not just in Ukraine.

Putin’s bargain with the Russian people has always been loyalty for stability. Stay out of politics, make do with fewer rights and freedoms, and his wars and repressions probably won’t affect you. Now that bargain has been broken on the rock of Ukraine’s resistance and sacrifice. The consequences of the war — sanctions, conscription, isolation — can no longer be ignored. It was one thing when Putin’s violence was directed at our pro-democracy rallies and in relatively small foreign adventures. Now it’s everywhere, at large scale, with no payoff or end in sight.

Conscription has not gone smoothly, to say the least. There have been protests across Russia, even violence in unruly regions like Dagestan. There have been firebombing attacks on recruiting centers and new conscripts are documenting the abysmal conditions and lack of training on social media. A quarter-million men left Russia in days — not to invade Ukraine but to flee the draft. Imagine the impact on Russian society and the economy.

It was never realistic that untrained masses of conscripts, some already sent to the front lines within days of registering, would tip the balance against Ukraine’s hardened military. Putin’s mobilization is yet another escalation and bluff targeted simultaneously at Ukraine’s Western allies and the Russian people. He wants to convince both audiences that there is nothing he will not do, no limit to the lives he will throw away to stay in power.

This follows the logic of the strongman, who must always appear to be on the offensive, never retreating and negotiating only from strength. These bluffs have worked well for Putin in the past against weak Western leaders desperate to avoid making any hard decisions. But now, between Putin and the appeasers, stand Ukraine, 44 million Ukrainians, and Zelenskyy. Putin and the appeasers wanted Ukraine to be a buffer between them, sacrificing a sovereign nation and turning it into a base to spread Russian corruption. Instead, Ukraine has become a shield, protecting Europe at tremendous cost in blood, destruction and terror.

I recently completed a barnstorming trip across Europe, with professional and political engagements from Helsinki and Stockholm to Berlin and London. My visits in Germany were most critical, as the European giant is still loath to rise to the challenge despite strong popular support for Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz still dreams of a return to the pre-Feb. 24 world, with cheap Russian natural gas and an amoral separation of business and politics.

The sooner Scholz and the rest wake up from these fantasies, the better. The only way to achieve a lasting peace in Europe is for Ukraine to win in a comprehensive defeat of Russian imperialism and Putin’s gangster mafia. That was my message to German politicians, that there is no time to lose and no reason to delay.

Putin’s regime is wobbling under the pressures of every strong but brittle authoritarian regime. Cracks have formed that must be widened instead of giving Putin a chance to repair them. On Friday, while Putin was raving, Zelenskyy formally applied for NATO membership for Ukraine (which Putin said he would never accept, but of course he invaded Ukraine twice anyway).

Treaties and paperwork matter, but tanks and artillery matter even more now. Putin’s mobilization is best met by mobilizing the overwhelmingly superior forces of the Free World to end this war quickly. Putin’s annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — an area roughly the size of the state of New York — further exposes the false nature of his claims on Crimea, which should finally end Western hesitation in supporting its liberation as well.

And then what will Putin do? He will rationalize and explain away defeat as easily as he concocted fake pretexts for the war in the first place. He will declare victory and try to spin a return to normal at home and abroad. It’s unlikely to succeed, but what else is there? He and his billionaire cronies have no interest in becoming literally and figuratively radioactive by using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. They are among the richest people on Earth and still hope to find a way back to their chalets in the Alps and to slots for their children at schools like NYU. The only real danger of nuke use is if Putin believes he can get away with it. Therefore, as it has been for generations, deterrence is still the best practice. Ukraine should be put under the NATO nuclear umbrella immediately. Every Russian commander must understand that any nuclear launch will result in their vaporization in moments, not a long trial in The Hague.

While it was Putin’s decision, this is not only Putin’s war. It is the latest symptom of the imperialism virus that must be eradicated from the Russian body of state. If Russia is to ever join the modern world, ending this dictatorship is not enough. It will have to release its colonies and start over before returning to Europe, humbled. The alternative is a pathetic life as a backward and authoritarian Chinese satellite, supplying gas, oil and land.

The ripples of Putin’s failure are already spreading. The winds of freedom are blowing from Ukraine, to uprisings in Iran and Dagestan and beyond. If Putin can be defeated by Ukraine, no dictator is invincible. This is the message coming to New York City at the Oslo Freedom Forum NYC on Oct. 3. I invite you all, in person or virtually, to hear the voices of dissidents and freedom fighters from around the globe. I guarantee you will be inspired by our courageous speakers. The world’s dictatorships are mobilized and united, so must be the world’s democracies and citizens.

Kasparov is chairman of the Renew Democracy Initiative.

Garry Kasparov: ‘Switzerland is not ready to take the necessary steps’ | Swiss Info | September 29, 2022

And the former world chess champion @Kasparov63 says of the war: “The free countries are lucky to pay this price only with money, while Ukraine pays with the lives of its citizens:inside.” 5/7https://t.co/0Xut4Vm2qF

— swissinfo.ch (@swissinfo_en) September 29, 2022

For our latest series, we spoke with 5 Russian opposition leaders about sanctions, Putin and Switzerland. #RussiaUkraineWar https://t.co/VyWBXgK63d

— swissinfo.ch (@swissinfo_en) September 30, 2022

This article is a reprint. You can read the original at Swiss Info.

By Elena Servettaz

“Series How Putin’s opponents see Switzerland, Episode 5:

How effective are Western sanctions against Russia? What role does Switzerland play in the war against Ukraine? We put these questions to President Vladimir Putin’s harshest critics. Our series ends with Garry Kasparov.

 

Switzerland plays an important role as a traditional safe haven for Russian assets and a trading hub for Russian commodities. It must not hide behind its neutrality but should actively help to ensure that the Russian war regime runs out of resources. That is the consensus among all the opinion leaders in the Russian opposition to whom SWI swissinfo.ch spoke.

Series: Russia’s opposition looks at Switzerland

Garry Kasparov is a former world chess champion, writer and political activist. From 1984 until his retirement in 2005, Kasparov was the top-ranked chess player in the world for a record 255 months in total. He created the United Civil Front movement and in February 2022 he joined The Anti-War Committee, a group of exiled Russian public figures opposed to Putin’s war in Ukraine. In 2013 he revealed he had left Russia out of fear of persecution.

SWI: Mr Kasparov, how long can Russia’s economy withstand western sanctions?

Garry Kasparov: The economy of Putin’s Russia does not have infinite capabilities, and the socio-economic situation will be close to catastrophe by next spring. And this is despite the fact that the sanctions only now have really started working.

Sanctions have definitely weakened Russia’s economy. They can stop the invasion but will not be sufficient to force Putin to change his mind and withdraw from Ukraine completely. Instead, the goal of the sanctions is to limit Russia’s capacity to wage this war, to force rather than convince Putin to put a halt to this invasion. Some success has already been achieved to this day but the experience of the last six months tells us there is much more that needs to be done.

SWI:  How do you see Switzerland’s role? 

G.K.: Switzerland, thanks to its important position in the international financial system and banking sector, could play an important role in smothering Putin’s regime. It is widely known that during more than 20 years of Putin in power, most of the money obtained by his cronies has been placed in bank accounts in the West, including Switzerland, obviously.

Any technology that helps Russia’s economy also ends up helping Putin kill Ukrainians.

End of insertion

SWI:  How can Switzerland influence the situation?

G.K.: Today, it could be an important step to freeze and confiscate the assets belonging to persons affiliated with Putin’s regime and use the proceeds to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. However, such decisions would require political will. Despite some improvements in its position toward sanctions against Russia, it is obvious that the Swiss government is not ready to take such steps.

SWI: So you do believe in the effectiveness of sanctions. Why?

G.K.: The way this situation has been unfolding over the years has shown us the cynicism of many Western politicians, who during the eight years that followed the annexation of Crimea kept repeating that any serious sanctions would not be feasible. Over these years, no one has shown Putin that aggression would cost him a very high price. But suddenly, just half a year has been enough to put in place sanctions that would cause serious problems for Putin, meaning it has always been possible.

SWI: What should the West do if it wants the war to end with Putin’s defeat?

G.K.: Targeted export control of strategic technologies has proved especially efficient since it has been limiting Russia’s ability to replenish stocks of high-precision weaponry. Over time, this reduction in the supply of high-tech components will weaken the country’s military potential.

SWI: So you’re not only talking about armour components…

G.K.: Russia should be cut from importing any high-tech goods whatsoever, since almost any technology can be put to double use. Any technology that helps Russia’s economy also ends up helping Putin kill Ukrainians.

SWI: To which areas can the sanctions be further extended?

G.K.: The West must increase pressure on companies that still do business in Russia. Any foreign company that helps the Russian war machine, be it by simply paying their taxes there, must also face sanctions. And the international community must also pressure countries such as Turkey, Georgia and Kazakhstan, which at the moment are helping Russia to avoid sanctions, to stop their participation in such trafficking.

SWI: What about the oligarchs?

G.K.: Personalised sanctions against Russian individuals have led to tangible and sustainable results. Russian oligarchs are ready to go to great lengths to avoid being included on sanctions lists, which is proof of their effectiveness.

SWI: How long are the sanctions of the West to be maintained?

G.K.: An important measure that must be taken by the West now is to clearly state that no sanctions would be lifted unless the following conditions are met: Ukraine must resume its sovereignty over the entire recognised territory, Crimea and Sevastopol included; Russia must pay reparations to Ukraine; and Russian war criminals must be brought to justice. The leaders of the free world should not yield to the temptation of partial sanctions relief in exchange for a partial reduction of Russia’s military activity in Ukraine. And no sanctions should be lifted without Ukraine’s agreement.

SWI:  These are obvious and quite strict conditions. Will the West be willing to do this?

G.K.: Widening and maintaining sanctions will cost dearly to the countries of the West – to the United States, Canada and Europe. But this is the price that must be paid for decades of complacency in the face of authoritarian, imperialist methods used by Putin. Free countries are lucky to be paying this toll only with money, while Ukraine pays with the lives of its citizens.

Edited and translated into German by Balz Rigendinger.”

Speaking at the Bundestag | Berlin | September 27, 2022

Thank you https://t.co/5j8ubWfSii

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) September 27, 2022

Gemeinsam mit meinem geschätzten Kollegen @Lambsdorff durfte ich heute im Namen der @fdpbt @Kasparov63 im #Bundestag begrüßen. Wir sprachen über die #Teilmobilmachung, was dieser Schachzug über den Zustand des russischen Militärs aussagt & welche Folgen das für #Putin hat. pic.twitter.com/iIpc0nAbqr

— Ulrich Lechte, MdB (@ulrichlechte) September 26, 2022

Inspiring meeting with Chess World Champion @Kasparov63. I share his view: There is no future for Russia with Putin remaining in power who has turned his country into a mafia state. He has to be held accountable for his war of aggression and the war crimes committed. pic.twitter.com/bPYIwUZ6Cj

— Christoph Heusgen (@MSCheusgen) September 27, 2022

Heute fand @Kasparov63 in der Grünen AG Außen klare Worte zur Unterstützung der #Ukraine & der Lage in #Russland. Danke für das gute Gespräch! pic.twitter.com/Ll58r3aqbU

— Jürgen Trittin (@JTrittin) September 27, 2022

Keynote at Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies | Stockholm | September 23, 2022

An honour & privilege to host ⁦@Kasparov63⁩ who spoke on Russia past, present and future at ⁦@SCEEUS_UI⁩ today together with ⁦@UISweden⁩ Director ⁦@HallgrenJakob⁩. pic.twitter.com/SpsRBE2S3w

— Fredrik Löjdquist (@FLojdquist) September 23, 2022

From Helsinki to Stockholm. I assure the conspiracy theorists that my visits to these new NATO countries were planned long ago! But I am happy to applaud their decision. https://t.co/HlcA2GUIYx

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) September 23, 2022