Jonathan Wilson's Blog, page 39

Eddie Howe walks tightrope at Newcastle with ominous January fixture list ahead | Jonathan Wilson

The Magpies manager needs results but his side face Liverpool, City and Villa in the league – and Sunderland in the FA Cup

When results go awry, football clubs tend to have only one response. Sometimes the act is undertaken with a sense of ruthlessness, sometimes relief, sometimes with the dutiful sombreness of somebody taking a faithful labrador to the vet for the final time, but always there is a feeling of necessity. “I’m sorry, Nigel/Antonio/Steve, but there’s no other way.” Inevitably, though, the result is the same: whatever is going wrong at the club, however good a job has been done before, the manager is the one who takes the blame.

That is just the nature of the modern game. Managers may just about be given time to work their way through a dip, but nobody ever sees the other side of a slough. Which should concern Eddie Howe. Newcastle are in a dip at the moment, the Christmas defeats by Luton and Nottingham Forest meaning they have lost eight of their last 12 games. They are out of the Champions League and the Carabao Cup and, while Champions League qualification is not out of range, a small gap is beginning to open. And January looks tough.

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De Zerbi snubs compromises as Brighton’s highwire act pays off | Jonathan Wilson

Club’s form has declined after brilliant start but their risky possession game was at its thrilling best against Tottenham

As Johan Cruyff pioneered the use of the sweeper keeper with Stanley Menzo at Ajax, he argued that he didn’t care if his side conceded a couple of goals a season from lobs into an empty net with his goalkeeper caught upfield; far more important were the gains made by being able to play a higher offside line, squeezing the play, in the knowledge that Menzo was there to mop up behind. It made it harder for opponents to attack, and meant that Ajax more regularly won the ball back higher up the pitch in dangerous areas.

The problem, said Cruyff, was that football culture was too obsessed with the obvious and with apportioning blame. A goalkeeper being caught out of his goal looked bad and so drew criticism, whereas the incremental gains, which outweighed the small handful of glaring losses, were ignored. It’s not just a football issue. It’s a truism in spread-betting that punters’ fear of occasional big losses means their tendency is to overlook the small regular gains to be made on the other side of the spread.

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Newcastle’s recent slump leaves Eddie Howe in a precarious position | Jonathan Wilson

With four defeats in their last five league games, numerous injuries and a tough schedule, the manager is in a tricky spot

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How bad has it got at Newcastle? Well, they are below Manchester United in the table now, which, given the doubt and uncertainty at Old Trafford, cannot be a good sign. They have lost eight of their last 12 games, going out of the Champions League and Carabao Cup. There were a smattering of boos after Tuesday’s 3-1 home defeat to Nottingham Forest, a team who had previously won one away game all season. It is not quite a crisis yet but there is definitely potential crisis in the air.

The next three games feel key. In the league, Newcastle face Liverpool away and Manchester City at home, two fixtures that would be daunting even if they were in form. In between those matches, on the first Saturday of the new year, they travel to Sunderland in the FA Cup. The FA Cup would, anyway, present a dilemma for Newcastle; the league, and securing Champions League qualification again, is obviously the priority, but the Cup is the one opportunity they have left for a trophy this season, their only chance to end a drought that stretches back to 1969.

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In football’s third age, old certainties have melted away and nothing is as it seems | Jonathan Wilson

No longer a game of territory or possession, the prevailing tactic is more complex – as Bournemouth’s kick-off routine shows

Bournemouth kicked off. They had gained a certain notoriety for their kick-offs last season, scoring, for instance, in the 10th second at Arsenal following a bluff in which they loaded the left side and then attacked down the right. This time, at Old Trafford, the kick‑off was far more straightforward, knocked back and, as two men charged down the right, the ball was swept out to that flank. It was overhit. Neither of the chasers had any real chance of getting there and Sergio Reguilón, the Manchester United left-back, let it go out for a goal-kick.

The instinct was to think it a waste, to wonder why Bournemouth had given the ball away so cheaply. Given the care they had taken over their kick-offs last season, why so careless? It seemed an odd omission for a coach as respected and apparently meticulous as Andoni Iraola to have abandoned a ploy worked on by Gary O’Neil. Then United took the goal-kick, faffed with a short touch to André Onana followed by mild panic (that was not a timewasting tactic against Liverpool last week; that’s just what they always do), and wandered into the Bournemouth press, immediately coming under pressure.

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Drab, weary, uninspired: Manchester United hit new low at West Ham | Jonathan Wilson

Best players are short of form and there is a hopelessness that smacks of a managerial endgame for Ten Hag

The Danakil Depression is a plain approximately 125 miles long by 35 miles wide that lies at the northern end of the Afar Triangle in Ethiopia. Formed by the divergence of three tectonic plates in the Horn of Africa, it lies 410 feet below sea level while year-round temperatures make it the hottest place on Earth. Although it was there that the 3.2 million-year-old fossil of Lucy, Australopithecus afarensis, was discovered in 1974, leading some to suggest it was the cradle of humanity, its salt lakes are now widely considered the most barren place on the planet.

Or at least they were until Saturday when further evidence emerged to suggest the bleakest place on Earth, the environment most devoid of creativity and imagination and hope and joy, is Manchester United. There, too, paleoanthropologists claim, there is fossil evidence of ancient life, glory even, although if there are rare extremophilic microbes, it’s only in the kitchens.

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Your questions from the Christmas mailbag – Football Weekly

Max Rushden is joined by Barry Glendenning, Jonathan Wilson, Sid Lowe and Robyn Cowen for a special festive Q&A

Rate, review, share on Apple Podcasts, Soundcloud, Audioboom, Mixcloud, Acast and Stitcher, and join the conversation on Facebook, Twitter and email.

On the podcast today; we start with the Champions League draw and discuss whether it’s actually more exciting than meets the eye and Sid gets to laud it over everyone for his Andoni Iraola predictions at the start of the season.

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Champions League draw: breaking down each of the last-16 ties | Jonathan Wilson

Manchester City and Arsenal will be confident of progress but Barcelona and PSG face tough assignments in the first knockout round

Defeat in the 2006 final remains Arsenal’s best performance in the Champions League but, having improved the squad over the summer, and beaten Manchester City in the league and overcome them on penalties in the Community Shield, there is no reason, beyond perhaps a collective lack of European experience, why they should not be considered serious challengers on their return to the competition. The Premier League leaders could do with sorting out the goalkeeping situation and perhaps lack a really top-class finisher but those are quibbles, the sort of problems most sides in Europe would dream of having.

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Ragged and imprecise Liverpool are flawed title challengers | Jonathan Wilson

Jürgen Klopp’s side are nowhere near the team that won the Premier League title in 2019-20

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We want our title-challengers to be fallible. We don’t want a sense of a procession; we want each point to feel hard-earned. We want a sense of jeopardy about the race for the Premier League. Just perhaps not quite that fallible, not quite that hard-earned. Jeopardy, it tuns out, can be pretty dull.

There were three thoughts to emerge from Sunday’s goalless 0-0 draw between Liverpool and Manchester United. The first was that United really are terrible at the moment, but at least they’ve acknowledged that. There was, paradoxically, something to be admired about the pragmatism of their approach, the way they approached the game almost like a relegation-threatened side. This wasn’t like 2017-18 when José Mourinho took United to Anfield, showed almost no ambition, drew 0-0 and seemed weirdly confused by the criticism that followed. Liverpool then were vulnerable having won one of their previous eight games; here Erik ten Hag was facing a side that had won each of its previous seven home league games this season.

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Erik ten Hag: from Ming the Merciless to circling the Old Trafford plughole | Jonathan Wilson

Three of Manchester United’s 25 managers have won the title and it will be remarkable if the Dutchman makes that four

Already, it feels, we have reached the stage of the cycle at which Erik ten Hag is being discussed in historical terms. The precise details have ceased to matter – where did Raphaël Varane disappear to in the autumn? What’s Bruno Fernandes really upset about? How can André Onana, a goalkeeper who specialises in pushing up behind a high line, so often be caught too deep? Does anybody remember Jadon Sancho? – and Manchester United’s manager has become just another chapter in the increasingly lengthy post‑Ferguson malaise.

Ten Hag is the 25th manager in United’s history. He looks almost certain to be the 22nd to have failed to win the league. Perhaps Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s purchase of a quarter of the club, assuming it is eventually completed, will spark a remarkable turnaround and Ten Hag can join Ernest Mangnall, Sir Alex Ferguson and Sir Matt Busby as a league champion, but it doesn’t seem likely any time soon – and the indications are Ratcliffe is already considering replacements. It may not be much consolation, either to him or United, but Ten Hag is far from alone in finding the club beyond his horsemanship.

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Newcastle left to rue lost opportunity after agonising exit from Europe | Jonathan Wilson

Eddie Howe’s side were undone by squandered chances, injuries and tired legs – problems even Saudi riches can’t solve

They’ll always have Paris. They’ll have the glorious memories of hammering Paris Saint-Germain 4-1 at home, but Newcastle will also have the fury and frustration of the injury-time penalty at the Parc des Princes two weeks ago. It was that decision, a cross flicking off Tino Livramento’s torso and on to his arm as he chased back, that they will feel, far more than defeat by Milan, eliminated them from Europe.

In time, perhaps, there will be a feeling that a slender squad will benefit from the free midweeks later in the season. In the long run, in terms of qualifying for next season’s Champions League, which will be essential for attracting the highest tier of talent to the club, this may be for the best. But it will be a while before the disappointment fades, and the sense of being cheated.

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