S. Evan Townsend's Blog, page 35

Huskies are 6-4

The University of Washington Huskies played the Oregon State Beavers Friday night in Corvallis. Going into this game, Washington was #4 in the Pac-12 North and the Beavers were #2. Which, was amazing for the Beavers who have been the doormat of the conference for decades.

While the game wasn't brilliant, the Huskies dominated from the beginning. The only Beaver touchdown (and only score) was a pick six interception in the third quarter. Which brings us to Husky quarterback Jacob Eason. Eason has been amazing in other games, even ones the Huskies have lost. But last night he was 50% on his throws, and toss off two interceptions, including the pick six. No wonder the Huskies depended on Salvon Ahmed and Richard Newton to move the ball on the ground. Ahmed ran for 174 yards and Newton for 54.
It was a defensive game. The Husky defense held the Beavers to zero first downs in the second half. And the Huskies could move the ball, just not fast or far very often.
The final score was 19-7. The score would have been higher, but kicker Payton Henry, who had never missed this year before, missed two field goals.

The Huskies are in third place in the Pac-12 North at 3-4 in conference and 6-4 overall. That makes the Huskies one of the few teams in the Pac-12 that are bowl eligible.
Upcoming Games
Next week the Huskies have a bye. Then on November 23rd, they go to Boulder to play the Pac-12 South last-place Colorado Buffaloes. The time and station for that game isn't set (it wouldn't surprise me if it's on the Pac-12 Network).
On the day after Thanksgiving (Black Friday), November 29th, the Huskies host the Washington State Cougars for the Apple Cup cross-state rivalry game. The Cougars are in last place in the Pac-12 North. But it's the Apple Cup. Anything can happen.
If they Huskies win both those games, they'll be 8-4 on the season (5-4 in conference). That's not an awful season. It's just not the 11-1 they were in 2016.
Elsewhere in the Pac-12
Four teams had byes again this week, including Oregon and  Utah (who are probably going to play
each other in the Pac-12 Championship game). So there were only four games.

In a surprise, Colorado beat Stanford.  But Colorado is still in last place in the Pac-12 South with a 2-5 in conference record and 4-6 overall. But that drops Stanford to 3-4 in conference and 4-5 overall. It's a little surprising that this late in the season, Stanford isn't bowl eligible.

And California beat WSU. That makes the Cougars 1-5 in conference and 4-5 overall and still in last place in the Pac-12 North. California is in 5th place, still.

And in the other game, USC beat ASU. That makes USC bowl eligible.

The only teams that are currently bowl eligible are Oregon, Utah, USC, and Washington.

The College Football Playoffs

The last time a Pac-12 team was in the CFP was 2016 and that was the Huskies. If the Oregon Ducks win all their remaining games and win  the Pac-12 championship, they will have won ten in-conference games. According to an announcer, no team has ever done that before. That might get them in the CFP. Might. This CFP got interesting yesterday when #2 LSU beat #3 Alabama.

But, if Oregon is in the CFP, I'll still root against them, always.

Why Tire Pressure Drops in the Fall.

The other day I saw something click-baity on Facebook (I think) that said "The science behind why tire pressure drops in the fall." And I said "That's easy: PV=nRT."

If you're saying "huh?" you never took freshman chemistry.

The equation PV=nRT is the "ideal gas law." An ideal gas is one that follow this formula exactly. A lot of gases come close and for those who don't, there's fudge factor called "fugacity." But we'll sick with the ideal gas law because air operates pretty closely to it (its fugacity almost equals 1).

But what does PV=nRT mean?

P = pressure. This is measured in psi (pounds per square inch) for tires but pascals in freshman chemistry class. Those are the "SI" units of pressure

V = volume, measured in liters in freshman chemistry class/SI units.

n = the amount of gas measure in moles. What's a mole? A mole is  6.0221409e+23 atoms or molecules. Technically, it should be written like this:

but that's difficult in a blog post.  6.0221409e+23 is the computer way to write scientific notation.

(That's 60221409 followed by 15 zeros or approximately 60 sextillion atoms. See below.) One mole of an element will weigh it's "atomic mass" in grams. If you look on a periodic table, Hydrogen's atomic mass is very close to 1. So one mole of hydrogen equals about one gram of hydrogen.

R= is Boyle's Constant and is equal to 8.314 joules/mole. Don't worry about that.

And T = temperature.

So, again, for our purposes, V is a constant (the volume inside the tire stays the same). "n" is a constant (you're not adding or taking out any air). And R is always a constant. So a little algebra and you get P=Tk (where "k" is a constant).

So if T (temperature) goes down, what happens to P (pressure)? The pressure has to go down proportional to k.

And what happens in the Fall? Ambient temperatures drop.

But wait! The math says that the pressure drops when the temperature drops. But why does that happen? The math is a model of the real world, not the real world. (See below for a math joke.)

What is temperature? It is a measurement of the vibration of atoms and molecules. The higher the temperature, the more they vibrate. At lower temperatures, they vibrate less. At absolute zero, all vibration stops (this is a concept, the energy to reach absolute zero is thought to be infinite).

As we all know (I hope), molecules are atoms that are connected together. Most of your air is a molecule with two nitrogen atoms.

So think of a balloon (tires are sort of like balloons). You blow air into it and it expands. Why? Because the atoms and (more likely) molecules of air are banging against the inside wall of the balloon more than the atoms and molecules are banging against the outside of the balloon. This is because of pressure, not temperature. You blew air into it, increasing the pressure of the air inside the balloon.

Now, if the balloon gets hotter, the molecules and atoms vibrate faster and hit the rubber of the balloon harder, causing it to expand. If the balloon cools off, the molecules and atoms hit it less hard and the balloon shrinks.

Same thing happens in your tires, except the volume stays pretty much the same (unless the pressure really drops) so when the temperature drops, the pressure drops. In the spring, the opposite happens. It warms up, and the tire pressure goes up.

This (and the fact tires tend to lose air over time, especially Goodyear tires) is why I strongly recommend checking tire pressure at least once per month. Buy a good tire pressure gauge and check that pressure. If it's too low, you'll need to add air. Your tire pressure gauge doesn't need to be fancy, but I'd stay away from the stick kind.

So there you have it, the science behind why tire pressure drops in the fall.

(That number of atoms in a mole is 60,221,409,000,000,000,000,000.)

Math Joke
Physicists think the real world approximates the math
Engineers think the math approximates the real world.
Mathematicians never make the connection.

The Huskies are 5-4

I started doing these little game recaps in 2016. You remember 2016? That was the year the University of Washington Huskies went 12-2, were Pac-12 champions, and played in the College Football Playoff against Alabama. (Yes, they lost.)

But 2018 is looking a lot more like 2015. In fact, nine games into the season, the Huskies have the same record this year as they did in 2015: 5-4.

Yesterday the Huskies played the University of Utah Utes. And like two weeks ago against Oregon, they played well, until the third quarter. Then they ran out of steam.

One problem the Huskies have is their very young defensive group. And after a bye week, I was hoping they'd be more healed up. But they weren't. A lot of running backs were out of the game, putting all the running duties almost exclusively on Salvon Ahmed. It was, pretty much, a repeat of the Oregon game. The final score was 33-28.

Elsewhere in the Pac-12

There were only four games this week as four teams had byes. In a big upset, the Oregon State
Beavers demolished the Arizona Wildcats, 56-38. UCLA beat Colorado. And Oregon beat USC. That's good for the Utah Utes because it puts them on top of the Pac-12 South all by themselves.

In the Pac-12 Standing, Oregon is on top of the Pac-12 South. Amazingly, Oregon State is #2. The Huskies are #4 (after #3 Stanford).

Right now it looks like Utah and Oregon will play for the Pac-12 championship. No one is going to catch Oregon with their 8-1 record. And Utah is 8-1, also.

The Rest of the Season for the Huskies

The Huskies have three games left. This Friday they play Colorado in Boulder. They better win it. Then they have a bye again. Then on November 23rd they play Oregon State in Corvallis. They better win it. Finally on the day after Thanksgiving, they play at home in the Apple Cup against cross-state rival Washington State. That's always a tough game. And they better win it.

If the Huskies win all three of those games, they will be 8-4 on the season. Which isn't a horrible season. Just, after 2016, it's a pretty lackluster season.

And we need to win at least one more game to be "bowl eligible." We'd better win at least one more game.

The Polls

Who cares? Oregon and Utah will probably go up or at least stay the same. They are currently at #7 and #9.

The CFP (College Football Playoff Rankings) comes out Tuesday (election day). Again, who cares?

Happy Halloween

Today is Halloween. Some people call it "Samhain." I have no idea why.

When I was a kid, Halloween was great, of course. Used to come home with a large paper grocery bag full of candy. And then get sick eating it. It was glorious.

These days, even adults get into the spirit of Halloween with parties and other excuses to drink alcohol. I don't drink alcohol much, so I stay home and hand out the candy. One sad thing (to me) is there are fewer kids coming to the door and exploring neighborhoods. This is likely because places like malls and stores and even schools will have trick or treating inside. For parents, this is great. It's well-lit, it's safer (no kids running into the street). But for those of us at home, it's sad. I always enjoy the interaction with the kids.

But people worry about poisoned candy or razor blades in apples. Even though that has almost never happened.

When I was a kid living in Idaho (at 4,500 feet above sea level), it usually snowed on or about Halloween. Then the snow didn't leave until late April. I remember thinking one October 31st: "It's snowing, it must be Halloween."

Well, I hope you all have a happy Halloween, or Samhain. I'll be waiting to give candy to the kids.

Upset Weekend

Since the Huskies had a bye this weekend, let's look at how other teams did, especially in the Pac-12 conference.

There were some surprising upsets this weekend.

TCU beat #15 Texas.

Oklahoma State beat #23 Iowa State

#19 Michigan beat #8 Notre Dame

And #2 LSU barely got by #9 Auburn. It'll be interesting to see if LSU drops in the AP poll a bit.

In the Pac-12, #23 Arizona State was upset by UCLA, 42-32. UCLA has been improving through the season. I'm sure this will bump Arizona State out of the Top 25. I doubt it will bump UCLA into the Top 25.

So there were some upsets this week.

In the Pac-12, pretty much every other game went as expected. The WSU Cougars barely lost to
Oregon. Utah shut out California.

In the standings, Oregon is still on top of the Pac-12 North. WSU is in last place. My beloved Huskies are still at 2-3 in conference (5-3 overall) and in 4th place (out of six).

In the Pac-12 South, Utah and USC are tied at 4-1 in conference record. Utah has more overall wins at 7-1 while USC is 5-3. UCLA is third in the Pac-12 South. Which is amazing the way their season started.

The Polls

Well, I was totally wrong. LSU moved up to #1 after beating Auburn. Auburn dropped to #11. Notre Dame dropped from #8 to #16. But Michigan only went from #19 to #14.

Oregon moved into the top 10 to #7. Utah also is in the top ten at #9. They are the only two Pac-12 teams now ranked. At one time (week 4) there were six Pac-12 teams in the tip 25. That's half the conference.

Washington is still not ranked in the top 25, of course, but they did move up to #29.

The Huskies have a Bye

The University of Washington Huskies have a bye this weekend. That means they don't play. This will be a chance for their running back squad to heal up and take some pressure off of Salvon Ahmed.

It's also an excuse to look at the rest of the season.

Right now the Huskies are 5-3 overall (2-3 in conference). They need six wins to be bowl eligible. The more wins they have, the better bowl they'll go to. So what does the rest of the season look like?

Next week, on November 2nd, we play Utah. The Utes are 3-1 in conference and 6-1 overall. They are tied for first place in the Pac-12 South with USC (3-1 in conference, 4-3 overall). We play Utah at home but they are still going to be a tough team to beat. Sort of like the Ducks.

Then on Friday, November 8th, we play the Oregon State Beavers. The Beavers are having one of their best years and are 2-2 in conference (3-4 overall). This is an away game for the Huskies but I think we can easily win this one.

On November 16th, the Huskies have their second bye of the season.

The Huskies travel to Boulder, Colorado on November 23rd to take on the Colorado Buffaloes. The Buffs are 1-3 in conference play (3-4 overall) so I don't think, even on their home turf, the Huskies will have much of a problem. But I said that about California. The Buffs are currently in last place in the Pac-12 South.

Then, on Friday November 29th (the day after Thanksgiving) the Huskies host the Washington State
Cougars for the Apple Cup. The Cougars are in last place in the Pac-12 North with a 1-3 record (they beat the Buffaloes last week). Obviously, last season's success for the Cougars was mostly if not all quarterback Garner Minchew. But, it's the Apple Cup and anything can happen. It'll help that it will be held in Husky Stadium. And Husky coach Chris Petersen has never lost an Apple Cup.

So where does that leave us. Worst case (lose to Utah, lose to Washington State) would make us 7-5. Best case we "win out" will make us 9-3. Likely case, we lost to Utah and then win the rest for 8-4.

Then we see how next year looks. Rumor has it that Husky quarterback Jacob Eason is going to go into the draft despite being a junior. So we'll be on the lookout for yet another QB.

But let's get through this season, first.

NaNoWriMo is Coming

In just over two weeks it'll be November. And for a lot of writers, that means National Novel Writing Month, or "NaNoWriMo."

NaNoWriMo is a challenge to write 50,000 words of a novel in the 30 days of November.

I haven't done NaNoWriMo since 2015, mostly because I wrote novels that didn't correspond with November. I've written three still unreleased novels and some short things in the past 4 years. The last thing I wrote for NaNoWriMo was Treasure of the Rogue Moon . Which was published in May of 2017.

You might be wondering why it took more than a year for me to publish Treasure of the Rogue Moon.  And the answer is simple: I spent a lot of time polishing the novel before I published it.

One issue there has always been with NaNoWriMo are people who hammer out a 50,000 word (or more) first draft, and then upload it to Kindle. Even NaNoWriMo has discovered this problem and have been encouraging people to edit and revise their novels. In 2015, they had an achievement in which you promised to edit and revise your novel.

But there are good things about NaNoWriMo. The frantic pace of writing required (1,666 words per
day) means you can't have writer's block. You have to just keep writing. You can't worry if it's no good or if you're not writing it right, you have to "just keep writing" (as I say). So it helps writers actually produce words, which should be the goals of all writers.

I have an idea for a new novel. I might write part of it (at least the first 50,000 words or so) during this years NaNoWriMo. Or maybe I won't. I haven't decided.

Do you do NaNoWriMo? Do you find it useful. Let me know in the comments below.

The Huskies are 5-3

Is was a great game. I just didn't like the outcome.

Yesterday the University of Washington Huskies took on the University of Oregon Ducks. The Ducks were favored going into this game because they were undefeated in conference play and their only loss was to Auburn, a very good and highly-ranked team.

On their first possession after receiving the kickoff, the Ducks marched down the field and scored a touchdown. I thought that meant we were going to lose and lose badly. But then the Huskies pretty much did the same thing. It was a hard-fought game for almost all of its 60 minutes of play. At one point the Huskies led 31-21. But in the fourth quarter, the Huskies' young defense was bushed. You could tell they were moving at about 8/10ths speed. And the Ducks were able to pull into the lead. The Husky offense was also tired and couldn't score, giving up the ball on downs which ended the game. There were no turnovers by either team. A Husky scoop and score or pick six would have helped a lot.

There is an adage that the toughest team wins the game. In this case, it was the Ducks.  The final score was 35-31.

But, no one since Auburn had scored a touchdown against the Ducks this season.  The Huskies scored four. And that was without running back McGrew and Newton, leaving Ahmed to do all the ground carrying. Ahmed ran for 140 yards.

And, frankly, there should have been a pass interference call on the fourth down which would have given the Huskies a first down. But the officials apparently missed it or didn't care.

And the crowd of 70,867 was in the game the entire time, despite early rain.

Next week the Huskies have a bye so maybe their team can heal up a bit. Then on November 2nd, they play Utah at home. The time and network for that game has not been determined yet.

I still love my Huskies. They fought hard for most of the game.

This game put the Ducks firmly in first place in the Pac-12 North with a 4-0 conference record (6-1 overall). The Huskies drop to fourth place (behind the Oregon State Beavers!)(and Stanford) with a 2-3 conference record, 5-3 over all.

Maybe we can go to a nice bowl game and win it (I think Husky coach Chris Petersen has only won one bowl game at UW). But, of course, that means we have to win one more game to be "bowl eligible." Maybe we can beat the Beavers.

Elsewhere in the Pac-12

Speaking of the Beavers, they beat California. That is amazing.  Well, maybe not, California has been
doing pretty bad. The Beavers now have a 2-2 conference record, 3-4 overall.

California is in last place in the Pac-12 North with a 1-3 conference record (4-3 overall), their only win that game where they beat the Huskies late at night.

Washington State got their first in-conference win by beating Colorado.

UCLA beat Stanford. And Utah beat Arizona State. Utah is on top of the Pac-12 South but USC is right on their heels (USC beat Arizona yesterday).

The Polls

The College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings will first be announced on November 5th (which is a Tuesday). I'm sure Washington won't be ranked in the CFP, anyway.

The AP Top 25 College Football poll today has the Ducks moving to up one to #11

Utah also moves up one to #12

And Arizona State, after its loss to Utah, dropped to #24.

Finally, as I feared, Washington dropped off the top 25. If you want to get technical, we're #30. I suspect we won't be in the top 25 again this season.

Pluck the Ducks

Tomorrow the University of Washington Huskies take on the University of Oregon Ducks. The game is at 12:30 PDT on your local ABC station.

The Huskies have two main rivals (and a few lesser rivals). Those are the Washington State Cougars and the Ducks. The cross-state WSU rivalry is almost friendly compared to the Washington-Oregon rivalry. As a Husky fan, I am required to loath the Ducks. And I do. I hate when we lose to them (such as last year's overtime loss) and I love when we beat them (like 2016's beat down of the Ducks and 2017's victory).

Going into this game, the Ducks are on top of the Pac-12 North with a 3-0 in conference record (5-1 over all but that loss was to Auburn). The Huskies are 2-2 in conference and 5-2 overall, putting them in second place in the Pac-12 North. Just looking at those numbers, it appears the Ducks have the advantage going into the game. And they do. But the Huskies have a few things in their favor. One: it's a home game and home field advantage is huge in Husky Stadium with the crowd noise. And, two: we really hate the Ducks.

If the Huskies play like they did against Stanford, we'll lose. If we play like we did in the second half of the Arizona game, we can win.

Question is, which Husky team will show up. This is one issue I have with Husky head coach Chris Petersen. His teams aren't consistent. Even the 2016 team that went to the CFP lost to USC. So I'm hoping the team that beat Arizona shows up. Then we have a chance.

Unfortunately, the forecast is for heavy rain. That may dampen the crowd noise some as people seek shelter. Or maybe not: it is the Oregon game.

Tire Tread Depth

Last week I talked about why you shouldn't buy studded snow tires. This week I'm going to talk about why you might need new snow tires.

Tread depth is very important to tire performance. In racing, you want as little tread depth as possible. Which is why most race car tires don't have tread as all. In Europe, they drive in the rain and have tires with tread for that purpose. In the U.S., we don't race in the rain. Tread makes a tire wobble in corners, which means you have to go slower in corners. Thus, the effort to avoid tread in racing.

But we aren't racing. We're driving on the street. Legally, you have to have at least 2/32nds of an inch of tread depth. Anything less than that is illegal.

You can test this with a penny (hey, they are useful for something).  Put the penny in the tread with Lincoln's head down, touching the bottom of the groove. If all of Lincoln's head is visible, you need to replace those tires because you have less than 2/32nds of an inch of tread.

But, to be practical, if you're planning on driving in rain and/or snow, I personally recommend at least 6/32nds of an inch for a snow tire or a regular tire in the winter. I base that on advice from Tire Rack. Yes, Tire Rack wants to sell tires. But they have always been very honest with me.

So, before winter hits, measure your tread depth. If you don't have a tread depth measuring tool, any tire store will likely measure your tread depth for you for free. Yes, they want to sell you tires.

I measured mine and they are at 9/32nds. So they will last one more winter.