Rod McQueen's Blog, page 3

Hewers of wood, drawers of water

Abandon hope, all ye who enter here. If you don’t like bad news or pessimistic forecasting, read no further. I have nothing positive to say about the near-term future of the Canadian economy. Despite the homespun efforts of Canadians to buy Canadian products in grocery stores, I see only troubling signs for our economy that will almost certainly lead to a recession later this year. We may already be in one.
Why do you think Ontario Premier Doug Ford called an election way before he needed to? Because he can collar another mandate before the economy tanks and he would have been blamed.
When U.S. President Donald Trump brings in a 25 percent or some other number tariff, how likely is it that Canadian firms will cut their prices to preserve sales or take lower profits by remaining here. Instead, as companies who manufacture items in Canada watch their export sales fall, more and more of them will choose to move to the U.S. where their main market already is.
Job loss will be substantial. As a result of Trump tariffs, auto manufacturers will move holus-bolus from Windsor to Detroit. In the case of auto parts makers, some products go back and forth across the border several times with successive steps carried out in both countries. As costs skyrocket, those parts that now start here will depart to any number of northern tier states.
Other industries are already stressed. For too long we have taken the easy route and shipped everything south with little or no “hand-work.” Typical is aluminum, about to face a tariff. Take Arvida, Quebec, for example, where aluminum is produced that is used by highly paid workers to make a cajillion products for sale to consumers. But all too few of those workers are in Canada. We don’t even have a rolling mill that turns aluminum into sheets that can be used to make other products. The situation in aluminum is repeated as we ship untouched to the U.S. oil via pipeline from Alberta or lumber from British Columbia.
And just to add tragedy to an already calamitous situation, those Canadians who believe it is their right to enjoy an annual winter holiday in Florida or Arizona, are discovering that our dollar is making such a pleasure prohibitive. After all, it costs C$1.50 to buy US$1. If we don’t watch out, we’ll all be freezing in the dark. Jobless.

 

As weird as they come

I’ve been a fan of Elon Musk ever since I first read about him a few years ago in a book by Walter Isaacson. The author did his usual thorough job when he writes about a business leader like he did with Steve Jobs. I was amazed by Musk’s entrepreneurial brilliance in areas never tackled by others, at least not all at once.
Just to remind, he invented and built the Tesla and soon was selling a million cars a year. He also launched SpaceX and sent dozens of rockets into space. There was even one occasion where a select group travelled by rocket to the edge of the earth’s atmosphere and were able to float round inside the rocket in a weightless atmosphere. As a result of all these endeavours, Musk became the richest man in the world. 
To be sure, there was some erratic behaviour, too. He had three female partners, each with several children, all at the same time. Not since harem days had anyone accomplished that. And each child had an unusual name like Tau or something indecipherable in several letters.
Then came the rebooting of Donald Trump, running for president of the United States and winning for the second time. Among the major donors to Trump and other Republican candidates was Musk who gave an estimated $300 million. In the history of U.S. elections, I’m unaware of any other individual who has ever given anywhere near that amount. 
But as we all know, the money didn’t just help get out the vote. The funds have also put Musk in the co-pilot’s seat of Trump’s daredevil plane. And when you see Musk on stage jumping around, waving his arms and generally acting like an eight-year old, you wonder which of the two is more crazy. And what about Musk’s “Roman salute” at the Inauguration celebration? It certainly gave me quivers looking for all the world like Adolf Hitler.
As if all this wasn’t bad enough. Musk now has office space at the White House and has taken it upon himself to eliminate or downgrade entities that seem to be doing good work. Two examples on which he has set his sights are the Department of Education and USAID which provides humanitarian relief around the world.
Even Trump seems to have had enough and actually said, “Elon won’t go home. I can’t get rid of him.” Of all the dumb things the new president has said and done, why he can’t get his way with that excellent idea?

The Fordian knot

Ontario Premier Doug Ford this week called an election for February 27 because he says he needs a mandate. I won’t say that statement is a lie. Instead, I will call it a terminological inexactitude, a phrase first used by Winston Churchill in a Commons speech in 1906.
No, I won’t call it a lie despite the fact that Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party already has a mandate: 79 seats in a 124-seat Legislature. And his current mandate runs to March 2026. Why now? Could the timing of this election possibly have anything to do with the fact that I, along with millions of other citizens of the province, this week got a cheque in the mail for $200. Signed by Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy, the money is supposed to be a rebate on the federal carbon tax as well as to offset high interest rates. Such a statement is not exactly a lie either. Let’s call it nonsense on stilts. It’s touching how the Ontario Tories blame the feds for all of our economic woes.
Such political vote-buying isn’t new. My favourite example dates to the 1950s in Nova Scotia when someone running for office would visit a voter at home and leave a pint of rum. His opponent would follow along and replace the pint with a quart bottle, thereby costing that candidate only a pint, but meaning the voter now had two pints.
Behind his bravado, maybe Ford is fearful for his own future. He’s worried that Donald Trump’s threat to hit us with a 25 percent tariff will hurt the Canadian economy. In such case, it’s better for Ford to have a vote now rather than in the fall when the Ontario economy might have become mired in the midst of a recession.
Meanwhile, Ford cared so little about the democratic process that the Legislature wasn’t even sitting. I guess we can assume that Ford had no helpful ideas of his own to introduce for debate. Instead, he’s making two forays to Washington in the days ahead to try and change Trump’s mind about the tariff. Fat chance. From what I can see, Trump pays attention to no one. Why would Trump listen to someone from the fifty-first state?
Now that we have this unnecessary election, what if Ford loses just like Ontario Liberal Leader David Peterson did in 1990 when he called an early vote? In that case, we’ll be no further behind. And what if Ford wins? We’ll be no further ahead.

You call this winter?

“April is the cruellest month.” So begins T.S. Eliot’s famous poem, “The Wasteland.” He goes on to say, “Winter kept us warm, covering/Earth in forgetful snow, feeding/A little life with dried tubers.” In 2025, winter is doing everything except keep us warm with temperatures hovering well below zero.
Eons ago, when I was a lad, my father always corralled me to help if he were doing something around the house. Jobs in which I assisted included removing and hanging wallpaper, prepping walls and painting, replacing electric outlets, taking out the ashes from the coal-fired furnace, and once, making and pouring cement for a backyard patio.
But of all my roles, my favourite involved the ashes. Those ashes were carefully saved in a bucket to spread on snow or ice so the car could get from the garage to the street. Seeing such usefulness, I came to see cinders as the solution to any problem. “Put ashes on it,” I would say whether it made sense or not.
My least favourite role was shovelling the snow. In Guelph, where I grew up, the snow was always falling, then got piled high, only to see more fall again. Photos in a family album show me almost hidden behind mounded snow. About the only person who came to the front door, using my carefully cleared path, was Harry the mailman. I hardly ever received mail, except for an annual card from my grandfather containing a $2 bill. But my birthday was in June when the green grass grew all around and there was nary a flake of snow.
Across the street in St. George’s park there was a rink but it was not a safe place for a lad like me. The rink was occupied with older boys who skated as speedily as if they played for the New York Rangers. Nor was I allowed to go into the wooden shack with its pot-bellied stove filled with burning wood that heated the place. No, my mother believed bad things happened inside, unnamed bad things, that made me want to go inside even more.
One amazing winter weekend, it rained, then the water on the ground froze. Streets and sidewalks were covered with ice. Everyone skated everywhere as if we lived beside the dikes of Holland. Oh, that was the best day ever.
Today when I see it’s -10 outside with a daylong snowfall predicted, I fret not, neither do I worry. Nothing could ever top any winter’s day of my youth.

Handicapping the race

The race is on to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party. Who, even a few months ago, would have foreseen such a turn of events? But here we are, so let’s review what happened and then handicap the potential candidates.
For the longest time, the uprising within the Liberal caucus seemed stuck at about twenty malcontents. Then, suddenly, a majority of the Liberal MPs from Atlantic Canada, followed by a similar number in each of Quebec and Ontario announced themselves unhappy with Trudeau.
How the mighty had fallen. Even while Trudeau was jetting around the world, meeting with every group who’d have him, the groundswell was growing. Maybe he sensed the background noise and was seeking a safe landing spot with some international agency.
But once caucus announced its January 8th gathering, Trudeau knew he had to make a decision: get out or tough it out. He wrestled with his choices over the weekend and yesterday announced he’d step down.
Maybe if Trudeau hadn’t treated Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland in such a ham-handed manner, none of this would have happened. Imagine telling her she was no longer finance minister because he was bringing in an outsider, Mark Carney, to replace her. Freeland thought about his bright idea, then announced her resignation, saying in effect, “You can’t fire me, I quit.”
Here’s my handicapping for the next leader. On the lower rungs are a few cabinet ministers such as Anita Anand, François-Philippe Champagne and Melanie Joly. None of them are exactly household names. No Liberal premier seems poised to run.
Dominic LeBlanc: A clear number three. As an MP from New Brunswick he’ll be a first-ballot selection for many delegates from Atlantic Canada. I like him. He’d be my choice.
Mark Carney: On paper, Carney is top-rung. Educated at Harvard and Oxford, he’s been governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. He’s become a wealthy businessman running various aspects of the Brookfield empire. But he doesn’t have a seat in Parliament.
Chrystia Freeland: By far the front-runner. After Trudeau gave her the heave-ho, everyone admired her hutzpah in resigning. But the Liberals, and their new leader, will struggle for airtime.
This roustabout among Liberals helps the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre. There will be a spring election. Nanos polling has Poilievre 26 points ahead. Unless Poilievre blows up, the Conservatives will coast to victory. And likely a second majority in four years.
Meanwhile, let’s not shed a tear for Trudeau. His departing words outside Rideau Cottage yesterday were classy. At 53, he will land on his feet.

The reckoning

At the beginning of the year, I made a 10-point “Fearless forecast.” Let’s see how well or otherwise I fared.
1. Justin Trudeau will remain leader of the Liberal Party. Pierre Poilievre’s 10-point lead will evaporate. No election will be caused or called.
• Two out of three right. The Poilievre lead is now 20 points.
2. A recession as defined by two quarters of slow or no growth will occur. Previously compassionate Canadians will turn mean and blame immigrants for both the housing crisis and hard times.
• A year too early on the first part. I believe a recession is still in the offing. I hesitate to say this but I probably got the second part right.
3. The S&P/TSX Composite Index will fall 18 percent.
• My worst prediction. TSE is up 22 percent.
4. Donald Trump will win the U.S. presidential election. All hell will break loose.
• Got that one right. We’ll have to wait and see about the all hell part.
5. Israel will reject international pleas for peace and continue to pursue Hamas even as the number of dead Palestinians rises to 50,000.
• Regrettably right although deaths are closer to 45,000.
6. Forest fires will repeat last summer’s sultry proliferation thereby bringing cries of outrage and threats of reprisals by the United States toward Canada.
• Correct about forest fires but wrong about reprisals. The U.S. suffered from fires too.
7. Russia will offer peace to Ukraine in return for keeping all the territory it has won. Ukraine will refuse. Fighting will carry on as the world loses interest and aid to Ukraine dries up. 
• We’re not quite there yet. May come to pass once Trump takes office.
8. Toronto and other cities will rename more streets and remove more statues in a futile attempt to forget a past that will forever haunt us.
• In June Toronto city council changed the name of Yonge-Dundas Square to Sankofa Square, a name that sounds like a brand of instant coffee. No one knows what Sankofa means.
9. We’ll wish Artificial Intelligence had never been invented.
• Turns out AI can’t even write a joke.
10. In spite of everything, may all your hopes and dreams come true.
• Let me know how I did on that one.
As for my score, I’m giving myself 70 percent right. Not bad for a guy from Guelph.

Happy and glorious

I recently went for a walk on the grounds of one of my favourite buildings, the Ontario Legislature, called the Pink Palace because of the colour of the sandstone. The architectural style, known as Richardson Romanesque, was also used in Toronto’s Old City Hall.
Suddenly, I saw a jarring sight. The statue of Queen Victoria, sitting in her usual place to the right of the main entrance, was surrounded by a square of stakes tied together with yellow tape. Were the powers-that-be thinking about dismantling and taking down Queen Victoria?
On the one hand, I understood their concern. Other statues of Queen Victoria in places as diverse as Montreal, Kitchener and Winnipeg have been toppled or defaced. Maybe they were being proactive and preserving the old girl. Yet Queen Victoria not only gave her name to the surroundings, but also served as the basis for the style of the statue of Queen Elizabeth unveiled in 2023 to the left of the front entrance.
They were supposed to be what’s known as a pendant where two things are alike. The newer Queen was carved in a similar size and height as the older. Both were seated on thrones with two steps and a plinth. That careful balance could soon be gone. Queen Victoria might have to show a stiff upper lip somewhere in storage.
If so, was this wrongheaded decision taken by the same committee that allows another statue nearby to continue standing? Known as the Northwest Rebellion Monument, it honours soldiers and volunteers sent to quell the 1885 uprising led by Métis leader Louis Riel. In recent years there has been much guilt and lamentation about how badly we treat our indigenous peoples so why does Queen’s Park still display this statue honouring the white-folks winning side?
Further, there’s the embarrassing matter of the Sir John A. Macdonald statue that’s been shuttered and hidden in a box for four years because of vandalism. I remember talking about this situation to someone who was part of an official group charged with deciding how to deal with this predicament. That was 2021.
By the time my walkabout took me back to the site of Queen Victoria, a four-man work crew was inside the yellow tape. I drew closer and shouted, “Is she coming down?” “No,” came the reply. “We’re just doing some repairs.” Then he paused and added, “The sun never sets on the British empire.”
Relieved, I bowed, and departed. My Queen still ruled.

 

After a fashion

While I’ve never been what you might call a fashionista, I’ve gone through a number of looks in my life. The closest I ever got to best-dressed in the Guelph neighbourhood where I grew up was when I was three. On Sundays I wore short pants, a jacket and a hat called a peanut scoop. In fact, my mother thought I looked so good she took me to a photographer. The result was a smiling face with elbows and hands artistically twisted as if I were tied up.
Clothing also brought me trouble as a lad. A bunch of us gathered at dusk one winter to throw snowballs at passing cars. When we broke a window, the driver jammed on the brakes, jumped out, and started chasing us. We scattered. I was the only one he caught because I was wearing a red coat, an easy target.
In Grade Eight, where you reigned over the rest of the school, I wore the cool guy’s uniform: unbuttoned shirt hanging out over a t-shirt and jeans with the pant bottoms turned up. Twice.
By high school I had wised up and figured I needed some guidance, so frequented Reuben’s menswear in downtown Guelph. A green corduroy jacket was the prize. Run by a father and son, the son would rent out his tuxedo. The one time I needed a tuxedo, his size was wrong for me. I ordered one from Toronto which came and was returned by bus package express.
My most favourite outfit, at least the one that brought about the best outcome, was a pair of coveralls complete with rubber boots that I wore one summer when I worked on the bottle line at the Royal Dairy. My marks in Grade 13 had not been good enough for the university I wanted to attend. As I clomped home in that attire one day, I decided I didn’t want to spend the rest of my life working in a job like that. I repeated Grade 13 and was accepted at Western on scholarship.
Despite my Scottish origin, I never wore a kilt. The closest I came to something as noticeable was in Ottawa when I worked for Robert Stanfield. I have a photo of a dozen members from Stanfield’s personal staff and party headquarters with everyone in sombre suits. I stand out in a black-and-white checked sports jacket that looks like the seat covers of a 1957 Chev.
These days my clothes are not so jarring. Wouldn’t want anyone jumping out of a car to chase after me because of what I’m wearing.

Lost souls

You can call me an old fogey or a bleeding heart, it matters not. I have two things on my frayed mind, two wrongs that must be righted. Both involve young people. The first involves something I keep hearing about: kids in school who aren’t paying attention in class. Maybe they’re fooling around with a friend or busy with that other close friend, their iPhone. Whichever it is, they’re not learning anything nor are the others sitting nearby who become distracted.
I know all about classroom disturbance first-hand because I had one teacher in high school who could not control pupils. At times, we would even go so far as to open the windows and throw things outside. Happily, in those days, the other teachers did not allow any such ongoing shenanigans. How? At the first sign of a badly behaved student at the beginning of the school year, the teacher would punish them for whatever they were doing, thereby setting an example of the interest and enthusiasm levels expected in order to permit learning.
Easy? No, but persistence will yield proper patterns. Equally tough rules could surely prevent iPhone use. A few phones confiscated with return to the owner only at the end of the day would be penalty enough to set higher non-usage standards. Otherwise, think of all the life learning lost.
The second issue that appears to be damaging young people is ads for betting that are pervasive during sports broadcasts. Scores and related game information are presented by something called “bet365” that looks to me like nothing more than a way to fritter away funds. Moreover, during most games there are live panels, often sponsored by other betting vehicles. Gambling used to be available only to the high-octane few, now everyone can sit at home while betting sites suck money from those who barely have funds enough for the needs of daily life.
According to reports presented in Parliament, 15 percent of young Canadians aged 18-35 have a gambling problem. Imagine all those wasted lives. Legislation setting national standards for online gambling websites has been awaiting approval for a while. Let’s commit to recapturing peace in the classroom and reducing seductive ads on the airwaves. Young people have enough pressures on them these days just trying to grow up and get on with life .

Getting Trumped

I’ve been sitting here asking myself just how the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States is good for Canada, and I’m having trouble finding a single reason. First off, Trump has promised to slap a 20 percent duty on all goods being imported into the U.S. Three-quarters of Canada’s trade is with the U.S. so that means higher prices and fewer sales of Canadian goods thereby resulting in a downturn in our economy that could lead to a recession here.
This downturn will be further amplified by a stronger U.S. dollar that will mean a weaker Canadian dollar which will cause prices in Canada to rise. As for Canadians wintering in Florida, Texas and Arizona, they probably already feel the weakness of the C$.
Another outcome that could flow from a Trump victory in the electoral college looks as if it will mean a both a Republican Senate and House of Representatives. Trump already has the Supreme Court on his side. The combination will mean he can bring in any law he wants. I somehow can’t imagine that any action he might have in mind will be a positive for Canada.
If the next Canadian election yields a Conservative government as the opinion polls currently predict, Trump will regard Pierre Poilievre as a pipsqueak whose name Trump will almost certainly mangle. Not for fun, just because he won’t care to try very hard to pronounce it right.
In fact, the election of Donald Trump, may, in the short term, be good for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The two leaders did work together during the first Trump administration on updating the North American Free Trade Agreement. And the Government of Canada has representation in Washington that will be able to make connections with new political staff in both the White House and Congress.
Trudeau will, at some point, be able to make an official visit and pay his respects to Trump. Such an encounter might not help much, but it won’t hurt. A trip by Trump to Ottawa is unimaginable. If he travels at all, he will want to swan around in London, Paris and Berlin.
Unlike President Ronald Reagan who famously said, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall,” Donald Trump is more likely to build a wall against Canada. Be prepared to feel cold and lonely.