Gill Eapen's Blog, page 71
January 24, 2012
Getting closer
Solar – the most elegant method of producing electricity – has not been viable in comparison to other alternatives. Comparing the total cost – considering construction, operation and decommissioning, it has been twice as expensive as the nearest alternative – natural gas and three times as much as hydro and nuclear. However, hydro is location specific and nuclear has significant tail risk in the storage of spent fuel that is not fully considered.
[image error]
Ref: Comparing Energy Costs of Nuclear, Coal, Gas, Wind and Solar, By Jason Morgan | Published April 2, 2010
Solar, albeit being the cleanest production method, has been priced out of the market, thus far. The only reason, solar plants are seen around the world is subsidy – both for the manufacturing of solar panels in countries such as China and for the construction of solar plants in countries such as Germany and the US. Developing countries have recently initiated subsidy schemes similar to what exist elsewhere.
Subsidies, for the manufacture of solar panels using traditional methods and for the construction of plants that destroy economic value, are not a way to solve this problem. More R&D is needed for process innovation that will reduce the cost of manufacturing and improve efficiency of plants. Recent research (1) has made the prevailing idea of embedding quantum dots into the solar panel more practical, extracting an additional 50% efficiency in production. Another 50% in manufacturing process efficiency, will bring solar to be in direct contention with natural gas. With societal costs fully considered, solar will then become the natural and uncontested option.
Energy policy is complex and it requires the consideration of available resources, portfolio of production assets and consumption patterns and emerging trends in technology. Policies that dole out blind subsidies are never good. Production and manufacturing subsidies are tactical band aids. What is needed are policies that strategically and holistically solve the energy problem by R&D, making solar an economically viable option.
(1) In solar cells, tweaking the tiniest of parts yields big jump in efficiency. Published: Saturday, January 21, 2012 - 00:35 in Physics & Chemistry. Source: University at Buffalo
Getting closer
Solar – the most elegant method of producing electricity – has not been viable in comparison to other alternatives. Comparing the total cost – considering construction, operation and decommissioning, it has been twice as expensive as the nearest alternative – natural gas and three times as much as hydro and nuclear. However, hydro is location specific and nuclear has significant tail risk in the storage of spent fuel that is not fully considered.
[image error]
Ref: Comparing Energy Costs of Nuclear, Coal, Gas, Wind and Solar, By Jason Morgan | Published April 2, 2010
Solar, albeit being the cleanest production method, has been priced out of the market, thus far. The only reason, solar plants are seen around the world is subsidy – both for the manufacturing of solar panels in countries such as China and for the construction of solar plants in countries such as Germany and the US. Developing countries have recently initiated subsidy schemes similar to what exist elsewhere.
Subsidies, for the manufacture of solar panels using traditional methods and for the construction of plants that destroy economic value, are not a way to solve this problem. More R&D is needed for process innovation that will reduce the cost of manufacturing and improve efficiency of plants. Recent research (1) has made the prevailing idea of embedding quantum dots into the solar panel more practical, extracting an additional 50% efficiency in production. Another 50% in manufacturing process efficiency, will bring solar to be in direct contention with natural gas. With societal costs fully considered, solar will then become the natural and uncontested option.
Energy policy is complex and it requires the consideration of available resources, portfolio of production assets and consumption patterns and emerging trends in technology. Policies that dole out blind subsidies are never good. Production and manufacturing subsidies are tactical band aids. What is needed are policies that strategically and holistically solve the energy problem by R&D, making solar an economically viable option.
(1) In solar cells, tweaking the tiniest of parts yields big jump in efficiency. Published: Saturday, January 21, 2012 - 00:35 in Physics & Chemistry. Source: University at Buffalo
January 21, 2012
The beautiful
Turn of last century witnessed a copy of a human, who defied all odds to become the most beautiful. 10,000 years of modern human history eventually produced a mind of significance when perhaps for the only time, the heavens may have smiled, albeit briefly. There may have been leaps of equal importance in the past, but not in the time span modern humans can track. He battled autocracy but he conquered science through imagination when such pursuits were considered inferior. He visualized the meaning of heavens and translated that into comprehension by paper and pencil. He raised the human spirit to levels that meaningless religions of the past could not imagine. He instituted science as the pursuit of happiness and knowledge and he drove generations to be thankful for their minds. They cut and diced his brain, but they found nothing unusual.
He was human, for he showed weakness when a few decades later, humans of similar competence but less passion demonstrably showed he was completely wrong. He has been wrong for over a century and mortal humans of incompetence have been measuring every possible thing they can find to prove him right. They constructed eyes on the hill, arrays in the valley, peep-holes in space and heavy metal in the heart of Europe to prove him right – but he was wrong. Gravity has eluded men of steel and those who measure noise in deep holes under ground. Gravity shall elude men again, in spite of the toys they build for insights do not emanate from experiments. Insights only come from imagination – an ability to visualize God and her tricks and an ability to laugh at the constraints that will prevent humans from finding the truth.
Beauty is fleeting. It is likely that humans will drive themselves to obscurity by experimentation and data. Some yearn for the appearance of beauty, one more time, for without it, life remains to be meaningless.
The beautiful
Turn of last century witnessed a copy of a human, who defied all odds to become the most beautiful. 10,000 years of modern human history eventually produced a mind of significance when perhaps for the only time, the heavens may have smiled, albeit briefly. There may have been leaps of equal importance in the past, but not in the time span modern humans can track. He battled autocracy but he conquered science through imagination when such pursuits were considered inferior. He visualized the meaning of heavens and translated that into comprehension by paper and pencil. He raised the human spirit to levels that meaningless religions of the past could not imagine. He instituted science as the pursuit of happiness and knowledge and he drove generations to be thankful for their minds. They cut and diced his brain, but they found nothing unusual.
He was human, for he showed weakness when a few decades later, humans of similar competence but less passion demonstrably showed he was completely wrong. He has been wrong for over a century and mortal humans of incompetence have been measuring every possible thing they can find to prove him right. They constructed eyes on the hill, arrays in the valley, peep-holes in space and heavy metal in the heart of Europe to prove him right – but he was wrong. Gravity has eluded men of steel and those who measure noise in deep holes under ground. Gravity shall elude men again, in spite of the toys they build for insights do not emanate from experiments. Insights only come from imagination – an ability to visualize God and her tricks and an ability to laugh at the constraints that will prevent humans from finding the truth.
Beauty is fleeting. It is likely that humans will drive themselves to obscurity by experimentation and data. Some yearn for the appearance of beauty, one more time, for without it, life remains to be meaningless.
Improved plumbing
Recent revelation that the side benefits seen in the common Diabetes drug, Metformin (1), to reduce the risk of cancer was due to its ability to affect the mutation rate in somatic cells beneficially by slowing DNA damage, is instructive at many levels. It further reinforces the fact that most modern diseases can be attributed to the wear and tear of the hardware – something that was never designed to hold up for such a long time. Although medicine's battles have largely been against external attacks on the human body with unanticipated non-linear biological effects, we are now entering a regime in which engineering may have to solve medical problems, that are largely endemic and possibly more predictable.
If disease is a hardware issue - mainly wear and tear from use and the crumbling of the plumbing infrastructure, unable to remove waste from the system at a sustainable rate, then, perhaps we should approach problems with an engineering mindset. Thus far, engineers have been largely focused on the delivery of agents to more specific targets in an efficient and convenient way but it may be time to focus on the repair of systems and the removal of waste by mechanistic means. God's delicate design has been beyond comprehension for humans to manipulate deterministically and they have succumbed to a game of probability and serendipity to solve medical problems. However, if problems are endemic, then they are likely more forecastable and the solutions to them, more systemizable. In this area, humans have been brilliant as they have been making tools for millions of years and mechanical plumbing systems, bit more recently.
Diseases of the body and the solutions to them may be sought by well established engineering techniques, ushering in a regime of mechanistic preventative maintenance at predictable time intervals.
(1) Solving the mystery of an old diabetes drug that may reduce cancer risk. Published: Wednesday, January 18, 2012 - 17:39 in Health & Medicine. Source: McGill University
Improved plumbing
Recent revelation that the side benefits seen in the common Diabetes drug, Metformin (1), to reduce the risk of cancer was due to its ability to affect the mutation rate in somatic cells beneficially by slowing DNA damage, is instructive at many levels. It further reinforces the fact that most modern diseases can be attributed to the wear and tear of the hardware – something that was never designed to hold up for such a long time. Although medicine's battles have largely been against external attacks on the human body with unanticipated non-linear biological effects, we are now entering a regime in which engineering may have to solve medical problems, that are largely endemic and possibly more predictable.
If disease is a hardware issue - mainly wear and tear from use and the crumbling of the plumbing infrastructure, unable to remove waste from the system at a sustainable rate, then, perhaps we should approach problems with an engineering mindset. Thus far, engineers have been largely focused on the delivery of agents to more specific targets in an efficient and convenient way but it may be time to focus on the repair of systems and the removal of waste by mechanistic means. God's delicate design has been beyond comprehension for humans to manipulate deterministically and they have succumbed to a game of probability and serendipity to solve medical problems. However, if problems are endemic, then they are likely more forecastable and the solutions to them, more systemizable. In this area, humans have been brilliant as they have been making tools for millions of years and mechanical plumbing systems, bit more recently.
Diseases of the body and the solutions to them may be sought by well established engineering techniques, ushering in a regime of mechanistic preventative maintenance at predictable time intervals.
(1) Solving the mystery of an old diabetes drug that may reduce cancer risk. Published: Wednesday, January 18, 2012 - 17:39 in Health & Medicine. Source: McGill University
January 12, 2012
Tick tock, early death
Research from Oregon State University (1) shows that the flaws and the failure in the circadian rhythms can be attributed to neurodegeneration and early death. Impaired biological clocks seem to unleash a series of events with negative effects on the brain and health in general. Although the study does not address this, one has to wonder the possible negative effects on the human psyche from lack of sleep, international travel and overworking.
Humans arrived on the earth, a few thousands years ago, when it served up an environment of predictable cycles. They acclimatized with it and grew in tune with the sun – their bodies expecting highly predictable rhythms. They hunted when there was light and hid from predators at night. They slept when it was safe to sleep and did not when it was not so. The whole human system is built up on highly predictable rhythms, driven by the sun and the moon. Modern human, changed all of these – ushering in a series of diseases – that are generally called auto-immune diseases. They won the battle against the bugs but they lost the war against themselves.
At the present rate, it is likely that most humans will face a form of auto-immune disease before their death. In the future, it is most likely a disease of the brain will be the cause of death as most others can be solved mechanistically. The brain still remains beyond the grasp of the mighty human.
(1) Loss of circadian clock accelerates aging in neurodegeneration-prone mutants. Authors: Krishnan, Natraj,Rakshit, Kuntol,Chow, Eileen S.,Wentzell, Jill S.,Kretzschmar, Doris,Giebultowicz, Jadwiga M.
Citation URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1957/26511
Tick tock, early death
Research from Oregon State University (1) shows that the flaws and the failure in the circadian rhythms can be attributed to neurodegeneration and early death. Impaired biological clocks seem to unleash a series of events with negative effects on the brain and health in general. Although the study does not address this, one has to wonder the possible negative effects on the human psyche from lack of sleep, international travel and overworking.
Humans arrived on the earth, a few thousands years ago, when it served up an environment of predictable cycles. They acclimatized with it and grew in tune with the sun – their bodies expecting highly predictable rhythms. They hunted when there was light and hid from predators at night. They slept when it was safe to sleep and did not when it was not so. The whole human system is built up on highly predictable rhythms, driven by the sun and the moon. Modern human, changed all of these – ushering in a series of diseases – that are generally called auto-immune diseases. They won the battle against the bugs but they lost the war against themselves.
At the present rate, it is likely that most humans will face a form of auto-immune disease before their death. In the future, it is most likely a disease of the brain will be the cause of death as most others can be solved mechanistically. The brain still remains beyond the grasp of the mighty human.
(1) Loss of circadian clock accelerates aging in neurodegeneration-prone mutants. Authors: Krishnan, Natraj,Rakshit, Kuntol,Chow, Eileen S.,Wentzell, Jill S.,Kretzschmar, Doris,Giebultowicz, Jadwiga M.
Citation URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1957/26511
January 11, 2012
Pricing whales
In the recent edition of Nature, researchers suggest a creative way to reduce whaling - by a market based cap and trade system (1,2). Although some may object to this idea as insensitive, it makes good sense. The optimal societal outcome is the maintenance of the number of whales that will keep the possibility of extinction of them to close to zero. The researchers point out that environmental groups spend close to $25 Mil per year campaigning against the whaling industry that makes a profit of $31 Mil. In effect, the whole problem can be solved if the environmentalists hand over $25 Mil to the whalers every year. This will assuredly stop all whaling. However, this is unlikely to happen. Also, it may not be an optimal outcome as the stoppage of whaling and a sudden rise in their population can have unanticipated impacts on the whole system.
Setting a price for the bad (in this case, whaling) and designing a cap and trade system is the next best solution. The number of whales that can be captured per year may be capped based on the current population of the different types of whales. Such a cap then will force a market based price and a flow of the right to capture whales to the most efficient whaling organization. It also allows flexible policy that can assure healthy numbers of all types of whales and the possible elimination of the system when the numbers are above a calculated threshold.
Policy makers have to think creatively to solve problems. The amount of resources expended to defend or attack binary policy choices is a lot higher than what is needed to implement market based solutions in most areas.
(1) comment in Nature entitled "Conversation Science: A market approach to saving the whales," Christopher Costello and Steven Gaines of the University of California, Santa Barbara, and Leah Gerber of Arizona State University, Tempe
(2) Science Insider, by Erik Stokstad on 11 January 2012, 4:08 PM
Pricing whales
In the recent edition of Nature, researchers suggest a creative way to reduce whaling - by a market based cap and trade system (1,2). Although some may object to this idea as insensitive, it makes good sense. The optimal societal outcome is the maintenance of the number of whales that will keep the possibility of extinction of them to close to zero. The researchers point out that environmental groups spend close to $25 Mil per year campaigning against the whaling industry that makes a profit of $31 Mil. In effect, the whole problem can be solved if the environmentalists hand over $25 Mil to the whalers every year. This will assuredly stop all whaling. However, this is unlikely to happen. Also, it may not be an optimal outcome as the stoppage of whaling and a sudden rise in their population can have unanticipated impacts on the whole system.
Setting a price for the bad (in this case, whaling) and designing a cap and trade system is the next best solution. The number of whales that can be captured per year may be capped based on the current population of the different types of whales. Such a cap then will force a market based price and a flow of the right to capture whales to the most efficient whaling organization. It also allows flexible policy that can assure healthy numbers of all types of whales and the possible elimination of the system when the numbers are above a calculated threshold.
Policy makers have to think creatively to solve problems. The amount of resources expended to defend or attack binary policy choices is a lot higher than what is needed to implement market based solutions in most areas.
(1) comment in Nature entitled "Conversation Science: A market approach to saving the whales," Christopher Costello and Steven Gaines of the University of California, Santa Barbara, and Leah Gerber of Arizona State University, Tempe
(2) Science Insider, by Erik Stokstad on 11 January 2012, 4:08 PM
