Gill Eapen's Blog, page 64
October 2, 2012
Green Brain
Recent news from the universities of Sheffield and Sussex (1) about a highly ambitious project to replicate a honey bee brain, in an attempt to advance the stagnant field of Artificial Intelligence, is encouraging. Brains, driven largely by instincts, are likely more amenable to replication by currently available techniques. However, such replication is closer to automation than intelligence. Research in this direction is useful to build more intelligent automatons. Adding a layer of cognition to machines could be useful. If this can be considered different from the larger vision of AI – an ability to replicate the human brain in all its grandeur, we may be able to advance both fields faster.
The engineering concept of Artificial Intelligence has been stuck, attempting to connect brain replication with automation, for many decades. One of the primary reasons is that the structure and semantics of contemporary software are not amenable to modeling holistic phenomena. It is easier to build an airplane or a robot from component parts systematically. Engineers have been trying to extend this basic idea to brains with very little success.
Advancing contemporary AI techniques to creating brains with high programmability, such as the honey bee brain, is a useful exercise to advance robotics. But it is unlikely to advance our understanding of complex brains.
(1) 'Green Brain' project to create an autonomous flying robot with a honey bee brain. Published: Monday, October 1, 2012 - 11:07 in Mathematics & Economics
September 24, 2012
Likely Lithopanspermia
Recent research (1) that substantially increases the probability that life on Earth came from other planetary systems raises many systemic and philosophical questions. If the transfer of life across planetary systems is common, then, the concept of life takes a different meaning. Many observed phenomena such as the birth and death of starts and galaxies appear to mirror the phases of life. They also share materials across space and time. In fact, it is the ability of the remarkably robust atoms to move and share that make galaxies, stars and planetary systems possible. In such a hierarchy, then, life could fill a gap – sort of a fundamental particle or energy.
It is difficult to assess the robustness of life as a fundamental particle as we have little data to compare experiments. But if life were as robust as atoms, then, the existence of it can assure its transport in space and time. As humans desperately look for stable islands of water and oxygen across planetary systems for extra-terrestrial life, they may have to consider the possibility that such stability is least conducive to its transport. If life is not robust, then, it is possible that Earth like systems that contain life may destroy it eventually. Chaotic systems with high probability of interplanetary transfer may be much more conducive to the constant churning we observe in other systems, made up of robust fundamental particles.
Life – an enigma that haunted humanity from inception – may turn out to be least dominant in places where complex and fragile forms of it are prisoners to the stability afforded by their environment.
(1) Princeton release: Slow-moving rocks better odds that life crashed to Earth from space. Published: Monday, September 24, 2012 - 16:04 in Astronomy & Space. Source: Princeton University
September 16, 2012
Move on
Decision-making, in every realm, has become more complex in today’s world. In business, technology and policy, contemporary decision-making has to deal with two major aspects – uncertainty and flexibility. Materials taught in business schools, the intuition gained by managers from the past and the choices considered by policy-makers are at odds with this new reality. This inability to consider uncertainty and flexibility systematically in decision processes is leading to suboptimal performances of businesses, incorrect selection and design of ideas, outdated education materials and inappropriate polices.
In policy, politicians mostly concerned about the next elections, propose and select choices that may make tactical sense to the public but rob the country of its ability to be long term competitive. In healthcare, the question has to be how to consider technology, demographic and disease uncertainties and create policy choices that are flexible enough to change with the long term goal of improving the health of the populace. Improving overall health provides far more flexibility to the system than treating disease. In energy, focus has to be on process and product innovation through R&D in emerging alternatives than tactical choices of where to dig for oil and how to transport it. In monetary policy, uncertainty can be substantially reduced by a fixed money supply target and such an outcome will encourage investment far more than all the fancy quantitative and qualitative easing that is going on. In education, system flexibility can be increased by creating a higher diversity in choices and moving away from contemporary views. High school education may be important but a more important question is what prepares today’s students for tomorrow. Most of the education today is targeted at making students good employees in a world where such jobs are scarce. If education is targeted at innovation, entrepreneurship and the ability to add value, that will improve overall flexibility of the system to manage future uncertainty.
Businesses do not fare much better either. Large companies reflect a structure that was created in industrial revolution where managers were put into position by the owners of the firm to improve labor productivity by reducing absenteeism and injecting negative reinforcements. Most companies continue the same structure in a world where only innovation actually add value to the firm. Innovation, however, does not happen like clock work and whether the employees punched in and out at the right time has no implication for the growth and viability of the firm. Business schools continue to teach archaic materials such as accounting and finance, largely focused on commodity production enterprises without realizing that such companies will be fully automated in the future. Accountants with sharpened pencils and financiers moving money around from basket to basket, add little value in the modern world. It is only the ability to conceive, design and market real products, processes and technologies that add value to the economy. Even in marketing, where the focus is on segmentation, pricing and promotions, businesses are out of touch with the modern reality. Businesses, thus, have two major challenges – their managers today have not spent the time to educate themselves of the challenges of the modern world and their future managers are given the same irrelevant training in schools as their predecessors.
In technology, the situation is no different. The tendency has been making incremental improvements to existing ideas rather than conceiving dramatically new ones. Part of the blame has to go to the capital providers, who count the days to exit as soon as they invest a dollar and they force entrepreneurs to be tacticians and risk managers. Further, the herd mentality and consortium investing have also led to overinvestment in incremental and similar ideas. As demonstrated by the meager cross-sectional returns to venture investing, incrementalism is a costly behavior with disastrous consequences to the economy. Today’s capital providers are using yesterday’s techniques to manage uncertainty and in the process, substantially reduce the flexibility of the nascent firms they invest in. They spend substantial time arguing about how to divide the pie but little thought goes into how to substantially change the status-quo and grow the pie.
Lagging innovation, led by bad policies, outdated business practices and incrementalism, reduce the flexibility of the whole system. Ironically, most of these behaviors emanate from a desire to manage personal risk but that leads to a higher level of uncertainty for the individual and the society.
Ref: Decision Options : The Art and Science of Making Decisions. Gill Eapen http://is.gd/dobook
Flexibility : Flexible Companies for the Uncertain World. Gill Eapen http://is.gd/flexbook
September 14, 2012
Premature marriage
A recent article (1) appears to draw statistical significance in the correlation between premarital doubts and subsequent divorce – women’s doubts showing higher predictive power. Marriage – an exercise of an option on both sides – has a higher value in the presence of uncertainty and should optimally be delayed in such circumstances (2).
Premature exercise of an option is always value destroying – the loss of value is higher in the presence of higher uncertainty. Doubts on either side indicate higher uncertainty and correspondingly higher option value. Only the party with misgivings about entering the union benefit from a delayed decision. Thus a unilateral decision to delay results in an asymmetric gain, perhaps leading to dissatisfaction by the counter party. The optimal solution appears to be delaying the decision but designing a contract in which both parties benefit from postponing the decision to get married.
From a policy perspective, divorces are costly for society, with negative effects on kids in many aspects including education and psychological development. Thus, society has an incentive to minimize divorce rates and/or increase the percentage of long happy marriages. By imparting a higher penalty to divorce, policy makers can deter premature exercise of marriage options. Further, by allowing opportunities for gain share by both parties from a delayed marriage – such as equal consideration of married and those contemplating to get married in taxation - they can reduce the likelihood of incorrect decisions.
Societies, where divorces carry significant stigma and personal costs, lower divorce rates and higher premature exercise of marriage options are observed. However, in such cases, marriage does not appear to be an option – a right but not an obligation to do something – but rather a cash flow with high predictability. This, unambiguously, destroys societal value creating cohorts of unhappy married people who cannot afford to buy the option to exit the union, because of high costs.
Tax and other public policies should consider maximization of societal utility as the fundamental goal. If so, they will find market based solutions are likely the best.
(1) Should I marry him? Published: Friday, September 14, 2012 - 09:38 in Psychology & Sociology. Source: University of California - Los Angeles
(2) Flexibility : Flexible Companies for the Uncertain World. Gill Eapen. http://tinyurl.com/flexibilitybook
September 13, 2012
Net Zero
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has created a smart home with Net Zero energy consumption (1). The two-story, four-bedroom, three-bath Net-Zero Energy Residential Test Facility incorporates energy-efficient construction and appliances, as well as energy-generating technologies such as solar water heating and solar photovoltaic systems. Designed by the Department of Energy (DOE), this represents a step forward in the next generation of self-sufficient home, that is overdue.
It is unclear why it took this long. Underlying technology for such a smart home existed for over a decade. The cost of production of photovoltaic systems trends down with scale. Incorrectly designed subsidies by overactive energy hawks – some preferring toxic fumes and others electing to create inefficient fuels such as Ethanol, have kept a cap on true innovations in this area. Production, control and use of energy can be maximized by algorithms, smart enough to learn and manage, As dumb politicians walk all over each other looking for fossil fuels in every crevice on Earth, they have taken the eye off the prize.
Perhaps, we are getting closer to intelligent designs of homes, clothing & food with net zero cost to society.
(1) Home sweet lab: Computerized house to generate as much energy as it uses. Published: Thursday, September 13, 2012 - 16:05 in Physics & Chemistry
September 11, 2012
Misguided nature lovers
Recent research (2) shows that cities are a lot greener than less denser areas. Larger, denser cities are cleaner and more energy efficient than suburbs. Ecologists have found that by concentrating their populations in smaller areas, cities and metros decrease human encroachment on natural habitats. Similarly, the idea of buying local does not necessarily mean it is greener (3). One of the reasons is that production and transportation in small quantities generally result in a higher Carbon footprint. Another myth, that organic foods are significantly better for health, was recently debunked (4) as a study shows little difference between organic and synthetic foods. Finally, another recent study (1) shows that travels by nature lovers do substantial damage to the nature, they are trying to admire and protect.
Those who stay away from nature and the fads associated with living green, may be doing the most to protect it.
(1) Trouble in paradise: Does nature worship harm the environment? Published: Tuesday, September 11, 2012 - 13:04 in Earth & Climate. Source: University of Chicago Press Journals
(2) Why bigger cities are greener. http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2012/04/why-bigger-cities-are-greener/863/
(3) Buying local doesn’t always mean buying greener. Thomas Kostigen's Impact Investor. Commentary: Developed world engaging in ‘green protectionism. August 05, 2011|Thomas Kostigen
(4) Are Organic Foods Safer or Healthier Than Conventional Alternatives?: A Systematic Review. Crystal Smith-Spangler, MD, MS; Margaret L. Brandeau, PhD; Grace E. Hunter, BA; J. Clay Bavinger, BA; Maren Pearson, BS; Paul J. Eschbach; Vandana Sundaram, MPH; Hau Liu, MD, MS, MBA, MPH; Patricia Schirmer, MD; Christopher Stave, MLS; Ingram Olkin, PhD; and Dena M. Bravata, MD, MS
September 9, 2012
Alternative climate
As the amount of energy harvested from these sources increase, however, there has been concerns on overall climatic impacts. This concern is misplaced if the problem is approached systematically and globally. Inconsistent, patchy and badly designed subsidies have resulted in a hodgepodge of photovoltaic, concentrating solar and wind turbine based production around the world. If alternative energy production is designed in a systemic way across the world, considering sources and sinks, it can result in not only low impact production but also higher control over the climate. A worldwide network of alternative energy sources, each harboring sufficient flexibility to turn harvesting on and off, will provide a mechanism to design weather, rather than affect it. Further, developments in storing the excess energy in well designed and strategic bins at various points on the Earth may provide a mechanism to divert the path of asteroids on a collision course.
Segmented policies and developments continue to cap the potential of humans on the well endowed blue planet. If it were designed by extra-terrestrials, they will be holding their antennas in shame, just observing the nightmare.
(1) Enough wind to power global energy demand. Published: Sunday, September 9, 2012 - 15:02 in Physics & Chemistry. Source: Carnegie Institution
September 7, 2012
Vanishing uncertainty
Recent revelations (1) that casts doubts on Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is a constant reminder that status-quo frameworks are stretched to the point of breaking. By the sheer will power of millions of scientists, who have too much at stake in the papers they have written, the ones waiting to be published and tenure in leading educational institutions, 100 year old theories have been kept alive on life support for a bit too long. This is true not only in Physics but also in many other scientific pursuits.
Change has been hard – for Science, Religion, Politics and Management. A generation of mediocrity has been the result in every corner of the World. As they polarize, some ridiculing global warming and others mocking them without evidence, some praying to God and others playing God – by coding Bacteria and seeing particles in the tunnel, some protecting territories and others taking over to spread peace and democracy, some beheading those transgressing to the undefined and others taxing who do not transgress, some offering money, others hope, some fighting for bonuses and others for a slot on prime time TV, some compassionate, others immaculate – we have seen it all.
Intellectual sincerity is as important as integrity.
(1) University of Toronto scientists cast doubt on renowned uncertainty principle Published: Friday, September 7, 2012 - 12:35 in Physics & Chemistry. Source: University of Toronto
August 26, 2012
Theater class
A recent study (1) of theater goers indicate that they fall into three mutually exclusive classes – wealthy, working and intellectual, each showing distinct preferences, price sensitivities and processes of decision-making. The intellectual class shows the highest willingness to pay, prefer dramas and form their opinions independent of reviews. The working class shows the lowest willingness to pay, prefer comedy and ignore reviews while the wealthy class show more willingness to pay and prefer shows that get high reviews.
The findings make intuitive sense and it has implications for marketing, pricing and even policy. One interpretation of the finding is that both working and wealthy classes follow less complex decision processes. In the case of the working class, they pick the cheapest comedy available and in the case of the wealthy, they go for the best rated production. In other words, it is easier to predict the behavior of these populations and designing marketing campaigns and pricing for them are relatively easier. But in the case of the intellectual class, who follows a more complex decision process with independent selection without a price preference, only the type of production is predictable. Even that is difficult as drama covers a broader swath of productions compared to comedy. In short, this class makes it difficult for marketers to target.
In this context, it will be interesting to study if such classes exist elsewhere – in on-line purchases, mall and restaurant goers and even voters. Identifying classes that follow simple decision processes could be important for both marketers and politicians.
Working class prefers comedy and the intellectual class goes for drama. Published: Friday, August 24, 2012 - 10:07 in Psychology & Sociology. Source: Plataforma SINC
August 18, 2012
Faulty management
Management consultants and theorists have been hard at work for the past three decades – defining, refining and applying management theories to improve productivity and efficiency in enterprises. Most of these ideas can be traced back to the industrial revolution when factories sprung up to produce things at scale (2). Some have been softening these obsolete ideas lately (1) but none of these addresses the fundamental issues facing today’s companies.
People are horrible at producing standardized objects, physical or otherwise, repeatedly. Fortunately or unfortunately, they are endowed with an organ that consumes 20% of available energy to think. Machines are exceptionally good at making other machines and whether contemporary companies want it or not – it is unlikely that humans will be standing around putting nuts and bolts in automobiles, wrapping soap with their bare hands or pushing paper for too much longer. In such a context, the term management itself is archaic (2).
People do not need management – they need the right incentives. If an organization requires management, it is a clear indication that something is wrong in the structure, systems, strategies and incentives of the firm (2). Working hard to build trust and reduce burn-out in employees – although may be good as a band-aid for a broken organization – is not a solution. One has to first ask why management exists and how the company is structured. Equally important is the question of what skills the managers have. If the answer to this is that they exist to “manage,” people, then shareholders should know they have a failing enterprise in their hands.
Management consultants and theorists may have done significant damage to the economy by perpetuating archaic ideas in modern companies, that will fail without the right incentives to innovate and create.
(1) Trust in management key to avoiding correctional staff burnout Wayne State research finds. Published: Friday, August 17, 2012 - 15:05 in Psychology & Sociology
(2) Flexibility : Flexible Companies for the Uncertain World, Gill Eapen, http://tinyurl.com/doflex
